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The first 2020 candidate poll...

And the winner is...  

68 members have voted

  1. 1. Who do you THINK will win...

    • Istanbul
      25
    • Madrid
      10
    • Tokyo
      33
  2. 2. Who do you WANT to win...

    • Istanbul
      35
    • Madrid
      16
    • Tokyo
      17


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Who I want to win is easy - Istanbul (though I don't mind the idea of Tokyo either).

Who will win is more of a guess, but as long as they can campaign effectively, Istanbul should have the advantage.

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I always thought Tokyo but without Doha and Baku the middle east countries night go for Muslim Istanbul. But if Madrid does get knocked out first round will there votes go to turkey which is Europe but that could jeopardize a future bid so no Europe 2020 Europe 2024 if Madrid bid for 2024. Or give the votes to Tokyo hmmm

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I think Eurasian Turkey is indeterminate enough that the Europeans would still fancy their chances for 2024 if it wins this race. Whether that would only be wishful thinking or not is a whole other debate.

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I don't think Madrid will bid again for a long long time if they don't win this time and I want to see a Madrid olympics in my lifetime. So I want Madrid to win more than ever for mainly selfish reasons lol. Istanbul's turn will come very soon and they'll bid again if they don't get it, and Tokyo's too, being one of few Asian cities capable of hosting the games in the near future. Madrid has too much European competition in Berlin, Paris, Rome, Moscow etc. for it to be certain that they could win after this go. ¡Vamos Madrid sé que tú puedes!

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The IOC picks it's hosts for their own selfish reasons, & not for those of others. The IOC doesn't really care if the losers may or may not bid again. They can't think that way, otherwise, they wouldn't be able to ever pick a winner.

Istanbul could bid again, but if they don't win it this time, the competition for 2024 potentially would be just as difficult for them as it would be for Madrid or Tokyo for that matter. Anyway you roll the dice, this is the best chance for any of the three 2020 (previous) finalists that they have ever had. But as usual, there will be one winner & two disappointed losers.

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I know a lot of ppl here are tired to hearing Toronto, but I still want to know which city's win can be beneficial for Toronto in 2024? I'm thinking Madrid because it will knock out Europe in 2024 and Toronto will just have to contend with South Africa.

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I know a lot of ppl here are tired to hearing Toronto, but I still want to know which city's win can be beneficial for Toronto in 2024? I'm thinking Madrid because it will knock out Europe in 2024 and Toronto will just have to contend with South Africa.

One could also say that an Istanbul win would hamper both Europe and Asia in the 2024 race.

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I wonder if this chop really affects the race materially in any way, other than allowing IOC members to get to the bar quicker than they would otherwise.

You'd expect if they weren't cut for those two to be the first out anyway. I doubt their presence would lead to any city gaining a first or second round majority that might otherwise not happen.

So effectively the IOC have saved the two cities a few million quid, and Round 1 of the voting in Buenos Aires will be what Round 3 probably would've been with a 5 city shortlist.

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Tough call, this race.

The idea of a Madrid Olympics is most appealing to me. It's like the right mix of recklessness and responsibility, wrapped in a very attractive package that will appeal to a global audience. "Financial challenges" -- psh. Come on, since when was hosting an Olympics without financial challenges? And if past bids really are a major factor, then Madrid has the edge over Istanbul. (Also interesting to note that Spain has been persistent in getting another Olympics, whether a Winter or Summer one. Eight bids since Barcelona '92!)

I'm not entirely convinced of Istanbul's perceived momentum right now. The four previous bids are not compelling enough a push for me, either. I haven't studied those bids, but based on posts here it seems that barely anything was changed. And I find it weird that they missed out on 2012 but shortlisted for 2008. Ideally shouldn't four consecutive bids have an upward trajectory, building from the success and learning from the mistakes of previous ones?

As much as I don't want it to be voted for such reasons, I reckon that Istanbul will be the IOC's pat-on-our-own-back choice, a chance to give the Muslim world an Olympics. I think Istanbul is and will be the only chance for the IOC to have "Muslim World Olympics". This is potentially a win-win situation (and a chance to shut out Doha for the next few decades). I've already conceded to the belief that technical competence and risk level is not an issue with the IOC anymore. But do they really want to venture into that new frontier now?

I'd also want to see a Tokyo Olympics in my lifetime. I'm curious as to how they are going to market this. I trust the Japanese to be able to deliver a responsible games. It's just that their bids are so... bland. I'm also starting to believe that continental rotation isn't that much of a deciding factor anymore as much as it used to be. I have a feeling that this is the bid to watch in this race, and could potentially have the advantage of a late momentum surge.

I picked Istanbul in both poll questions, but I can imagine and won't be surprised if Madrid or Tokyo wins this.

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I'll be happy with any of these 3 as hosts, though Tokyo is probably my personal favourite, then Istanbul, then Madrid.

I'm just happy the IOC made the right decision with the shortlist. What a contrast to FIFA! Good for the IOC to make FIFA look even more ridiculous with their crazy sketchy 2022 decision.

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I wonder if this chop really affects the race materially in any way, other than allowing IOC members to get to the bar quicker than they would otherwise.

You'd expect if they weren't cut for those two to be the first out anyway. I doubt their presence would lead to any city gaining a first or second round majority that might otherwise not happen.

So effectively the IOC have saved the two cities a few million quid, and Round 1 of the voting in Buenos Aires will be what Round 3 probably would've been with a 5 city shortlist.

I suppose the question is, could Doha or Baku have managed to do a Chicago on one of the other rivals in the first round? I guess we'll never know now, but the more runners would have meant there was more potential for that. I guess my main feeling about Bahu and Doha out is it makes it more likely that Istanbul will survive the first round. A three way split between the natural likely support base of those three might have made who exited first more of a lottery.

Tough call, this race.

I picked Istanbul in both poll questions, but I can imagine and won't be surprised if Madrid or Tokyo wins this.

Yeah, I don't think there's an obvious standout. This could well be a race that gets decided by which teams stuff up in the campaign or not.

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I haven't voted yet. I'm going to wait and see what happens.

If all 5 had been shortlisted, if Turkey had been the sole Euro bidder, I would've said Tokyo in a heartbeat.

Having only 3 cities makes the race feel much more even to me. All three could host. All three are very different. There isn't a BAD option among them.

Tokyo's problems: boring, lack of public enthusiasm.

Tokyo's strength: reliability, operational smoothness.

Madrid's problems: economy, other aspiring European hosts, Latin country following Latin country.

Madrids strengths: classic European glamour, strong technical plan, good relationship with IOC.

Istanbul's problems: spread out plan, transportation issues, less experienced.

Istanbul's strengths: exotic locale, first Muslim host.

I think politics and smart campaigning will win the day, barring economic or environmental disaster.

I'm actually starting to gravitate to Madrid, but I think any of them can win.

If the US has designs on 2024, a Madrid win would be most helpful and a Tokyo win would be least helpful.

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If the US has designs on 2024, a Madrid win would be most helpful and a Tokyo win would be least helpful.

I don't see your thinking on that - do you ant to explain further? I can't really see any of the three having much of an affect on USA's chances in 2024.

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I don't see your thinking on that - do you ant to explain further? I can't really see any of the three having much of an affect on USA's chances in 2024.

Madrid 2020 knocks out Europe 2024. Battling Europe and potentially Africa simultaneously seems like a tougher road. I have a totally subjective sense that the US will have an easier time dealing with Asia than Europe.

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Madrid 2020 knocks out Europe 2024. Battling Europe and potentially Africa simultaneously seems like a tougher road. I have a totally subjective sense that the US will have an easier time dealing with Asia than Europe.

Just interested. Personally, I think a Tokyo win is the one that least upsets any other region's biding plans. And one of my sources off-board indicated to me the Canadian NOC sees Istanbul as North America's preferred winner for 2020 by simultaneously handicapping both Europe AND Asia.

Hmmm. I dunno if I've just been over-thinking it the last 24 hours, but this race doesn't look as clear cut to me as it did just a few days ago.

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Just interested. Personally, I think a Tokyo win is the one that least upsets any other region's biding plans. And one of my sources off-board indicated to me the Canadian NOC sees Istanbul as North America's preferred winner for 2020 by simultaneously handicapping both Europe AND Asia.

Hmmm. I dunno if I've just been over-thinking it the last 24 hours, but this race doesn't look as clear cut to me as it did just a few days ago.

I agree. The three city shortlist feels like quite an equalizer. I really don't know what will happen.

I think Istanbul only handicaps potential 2024 bidders from Muslim countries. I don't see it hurting Asia at all. It will probably only have minimal impact on Europe.

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I think Istanbul can pull it off. Maybe the IOC put Istanbul in fourth to foreshadow us? :lol: It would be the best bet for a Toronto/American win in 2024.

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Now that I've think about it I am starting to change my mind and thinking that Istanbul win would benefit Toronto/NA 2024 the most. I think the biggest threat for 2024 will be the very likely South Africa bid. However after Rio - Istanbul,perhaps the IOC would want to go back to a more reliable host from a proven host country.

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Madrid 2020 would jeopardize Paris 2024 and europe wouldn't it? Tokyo wouldn't harm anyone really Istanbul jeopardizes a baku or Doha who have no shot of winning anyway. Would any jeopardize Africa or North America?

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Now that I've think about it I am starting to change my mind and thinking that Istanbul win would benefit Toronto/NA 2024 the most. I think the biggest threat for 2024 will be the very likely South Africa bid. However after Rio - Istanbul,perhaps the IOC would want to go back to a more reliable host from a proven host country.

That's sound thinking. I hadn't considered it that way.

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Now that I've think about it I am starting to change my mind and thinking that Istanbul win would benefit Toronto/NA 2024 the most. I think the biggest threat for 2024 will be the very likely South Africa bid. However after Rio - Istanbul,perhaps the IOC would want to go back to a more reliable host from a proven host country.

Very true. Rio risk Istanbul risk south Africa risk If by a small chance rio isn't wildly successful that wouldn't help Africa

I agree the shortlist and rankings have changed my mind I thought Tokyo but Madrid looks great minus money problems Istanbul too but scores were ok

So confused haha

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Now that the IOC and USOC have a revenue-sharing agreement, it would be interesting in what the USOC wants to do now. Bid for 2022 or 2024?

However, both ideas clash with one issue that has been making the US news a lot recently: the domestic economy.

Atlanta 1996, while trying to emulate Los Angeles 1984, did not go as planned. In fact, has anyone in the world recall anything international (in the sporting sense), since those Olympic Games for that city? I haven't. Unfortunately, it has become associated with that bombing by that extremist who thought "the second coming of Jesus was coming to smite homosexuals and pro-abortion activists."

Well, Salt Lake 2002 was the latest Olympic Games on US soil. Overall, it went well, but it had some major slip-ups along the way, both before and during the Games.

Now, come 2015 or 2017, does the US even has the money to launch a bid for a Games, never mind hosting another one? It got spurned by the IOC for 2012 and 2016 for various reasons. I guess we will have to wait for the news to come, if there is going to be any.

Getting back on track here, it will be interesting on how the 2020 race plays out. I still think Istanbul has what it takes to win the bid. However, the thought of Madrid being in the list was not surprising, but it is kind of shaky to me. As for Tokyo, I am keeping the cards to my chest for now.

Edited by Guardian

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Now that I've think about it I am starting to change my mind and thinking that Istanbul win would benefit Toronto/NA 2024 the most. I think the biggest threat for 2024 will be the very likely South Africa bid. However after Rio - Istanbul,perhaps the IOC would want to go back to a more reliable host from a proven host country.

Hm, just a thought - how many north African, muslim IOC members are there? Would they support Istanbul and the first Games in a Muslim country or hold it off to favor the chances of an African Games in 2024 with South Africa?

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