GBModerator 184 Posted April 10, 2012 Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 Try out this predictive market for the 2020 Olympic bid race. Rather than a poll it gathers more information and offers an incentive for correct choices. You can also add a confidence level to your choice. GamesBids.com Predictive Market 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GBModerator 184 Posted April 10, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 I urge you all to try this - it is a stock market model currently with two questions: What city will win the bid to host the 2020 Olympic Games? Baku, Azerbaijan currently leads with a chance of 21.29% What cities bidding to host the 2020 Olympic Games will make the short list (on May 23)? Tokyo, Japan currently leads with a chance of 27.14% You set up an account with virtual money and the "value" of each choice changes each day so your portfolio value change. You can change your choices as often as you like to earn more. Basically, it's a game to see who can make the right choices and earn the most. This is currently in test mode but we will consider giving prizes to the top gainers. Right now it's good to get in early as the "prices" are low and gains could be big. If you think Tokyo's chances of making the shortlist is higher than 27.14% then you can "buy stock" in that opinion and as more people support that opinion your value goes up. AND - many of you will like that you can short sell too - so if you see a bid go way up because of unrealistic enthusiasm, you can bid it down to earn more "money". Would you consider short-selling Baku, the current leader in the bid winner poll? Just try it! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rob. 2040 Posted April 10, 2012 Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 OK, I've given this a go. Not really sure what I'm doing to be honest! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SwissO 126 Posted April 10, 2012 Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 OK, I've given this a go. Not really sure what I'm doing to be honest! So do I.... I spent all my money, but not sure how things are evolving now... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GBModerator 184 Posted April 10, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 We need more players - it should get interesting. Once many people have responded it should paint a good picture of how the race is generally viewed. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Rols 1902 Posted April 10, 2012 Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 Do we have to register again for it? I'm trying to sign in with my usual GB username and password, but keep getting rejected. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Rols 1902 Posted April 10, 2012 Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 Scratch that - I've worked it out now. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
deawebo 77 Posted April 11, 2012 Report Share Posted April 11, 2012 It sound funny... I'll try it! But do i need a special account? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GBModerator 184 Posted May 7, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2012 New question has been added... What Olympic bid city will lead BidIndex 2020 in the initial release? http://gamesbids.inklingmarkets.com/markets/46947 It's great to see people participating - and interesting to see the results. These results seem far more accurate than a simple poll. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jimena 2 Posted May 8, 2012 Report Share Posted May 8, 2012 I haven't tried this but now i will Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GBModerator 184 Posted May 8, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 8, 2012 Here is another... http://gamesbids.ink...m/markets/46955 Turkey is bidding for both the 2020 Olympics and the UEFA Euro 2020 but it is unlikely that one country will be awarded both events. What will most likely happen? POSSIBLE ANSWERS Turkey will win UEFA, bid for Olympics Turkey will win UEFA, drop Olympic bid Turkey continues UEFA and Olympic bids Turkey will drop out of UEFA 2020 bid Will drop UEFA & miss Olympic shortlist Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rob. 2040 Posted May 8, 2012 Report Share Posted May 8, 2012 Done. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GBModerator 184 Posted May 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2012 Interesting that after BidIndex was released the value of Istanbul shot up and Madrid fell. Keep using the model, it's working well. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GBModerator 184 Posted May 15, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 15, 2012 Just a suggestion all - the numbers in the "Who will make the shortlist?" are all very low - even Tokyo is at 50% (meaning if you place a "bet" on them now you will double your points if they make a the shortlist. If you haven't signed up yet - do so now - make a prediction on the shortlist and get lots of play money in your account. http://gamesbids.inklingmarkets.com/markets/46048 In the future we will be offering prizes to top scorers so if you get involved now you will be in much better shape later. We will be adding questions all of the time. Have fun! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Olympic Fan Darcy 321 Posted May 20, 2012 Report Share Posted May 20, 2012 Just a suggestion all - the numbers in the "Who will make the shortlist?" are all very low - even Tokyo is at 50% (meaning if you place a "bet" on them now you will double your points if they make a the shortlist. If you haven't signed up yet - do so now - make a prediction on the shortlist and get lots of play money in your account. http://gamesbids.ink...m/markets/46048 In the future we will be offering prizes to top scorers so if you get involved now you will be in much better shape later. We will be adding questions all of the time. Have fun! Cool just signed up and made alot of bets hope they pay up Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Olympic Fan Darcy 321 Posted May 20, 2012 Report Share Posted May 20, 2012 Just used all 5000 of my points haha helped boost tokyo up to 55% and doha to 29% for the shortlist that is Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Rols 1902 Posted May 23, 2012 Report Share Posted May 23, 2012 So when do we get to "cash out" our short list prediction shares? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Olympic Fan Darcy 321 Posted May 23, 2012 Report Share Posted May 23, 2012 Well im broke I spent about 2k on Doha making it and 1k on Baku I put a little bit on Madrid ad Tokyo. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GBModerator 184 Posted May 24, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 24, 2012 So when do we get to "cash out" our short list prediction shares? Soon Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Rols 1902 Posted May 24, 2012 Report Share Posted May 24, 2012 Woohoo! I made a virtual $5000 profit! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Olympic Fan Darcy 321 Posted May 24, 2012 Report Share Posted May 24, 2012 Tokyo, Japan This question is over. You made a profit of $2,241.93. Istanbul, Turkey This question is over. You made a profit of $441.45. Doha, Qatar This question is over. You took a loss of $1,307.62. Baku, Azerbaijan This question is over. You took a loss of $325.95. cool in the end i made money thanks tokyo Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GBModerator 184 Posted May 30, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2012 New market - what country will win the most medals at London 2012? http://gamesbids.inklingmarkets.com/markets/47172 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Olympic Fan Darcy 321 Posted May 31, 2012 Report Share Posted May 31, 2012 Cool! Can't wait Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Rols 1902 Posted May 31, 2012 Report Share Posted May 31, 2012 Well, there's only really two contenders in the medals market - China and the US, and the US price is already quite high. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Gangwon 259 Posted May 31, 2012 Report Share Posted May 31, 2012 Well, there's only really two contenders in the medals market - China and the US, and the US price is already quite high. About the US price, sorry about that my good man Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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