Jump to content

2020: Who's the Frontrunner?


  

99 members have voted

  1. 1. Who's the frontrunner in the 2020 race so far?



Recommended Posts

  • Replies 592
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

If, as looks likely, Turkey is the only candidate for Euro 2020 I'd find it impossible to believe their government would turn around to UEFA and say "actually, no, we don't want this". That'd be such

I think Turkey saying they want the European Championships and the Olympics will work against them. The IOC is not going to want a big show in town in June and the Olympics in August.

It's impossible for any country to stage the same year two major sport events such as Euro and the Olympic Games (and this has nothing to do with Turkey). It would create major challenges regarding ma

And what happens when some scandal or economic crash hits Tokyo months before the vote?

They have seven years to recover and still look to be in better shape than cash-strapped Spain, sweltering, unathletic, sexist Qatar, inadequate infrastructure Azerbaijan or my-eyes-were-bigger-than-my-stomach Turkey.

Btw some days ago Azerbaijan refused Georgian offer to launch joint bid for EURO 2020. Azerbaijan argumented it as a challenge at times when Baku is bidding for SOG 2020 so the country decided to concentrate on its olympic bid. I know it still does not give us high chances to win the race but at least it shows us as realiable partners for IOC.

Good for Baku! They may not be big enough to host, but I sure like the way they're running their campaign. What a contrast!

Link to post
Share on other sites

We go to Madrid!

What will it give to Madrid?

First, current economic situation of Spain is too far from anything called stable and progressive. Plus many experts believe this is only a start of a longer recession.

Second, Spain hosted SOG some 20 years ago so maybe to let other nations also "have some fun"?

Third, there is Paris with its wish for SOG 2024 so I expect a big opposition to Madrid's bid from their side.

I know they have a good excuse for having most of the venues in place which can be seen as advantage(?). But then many venues does not mean city should be immediately awarded with games. Having many things in place means that design of most of the venues will not be as new and fresh by 2020. At the same time this will not contribute to the urban redevelopment of city.

Concluding all above-mentioned I ask you a question does it worth to award games to a city which is in fact from all the angles in no need for Olympics?

Link to post
Share on other sites

inadequate infrastructure Azerbaijan

It is not without infrastructure at all. Moreover now it improves even more rapidly than ever before. I believe 8 years are more than enough for us to prepare for SOG.

Good for Baku! They may not be big enough to host, but I sure like the way they're running their campaign. What a contrast!

Thanks! :)

Link to post
Share on other sites

I know they have a good excuse for having most of the venues in place which can be seen as advantage(?). But then many venues does not mean city should be immediately awarded with games.

Why not? Doesn't stop other fantasy bidsters from throwing out there places like Minneapolis simply bcuz they have venues. But that's neither here nor there anyway.

But to the other points, like recession, who hosted already & Paris wanting to bid (which is a theory at this point, cuz the French haven't even made a peep aboit it), it's still comes down to who has the least risk considering the gravity of the dilemmas of this particular bidding race, & then you trickle down from there. And right now, that's Tokyo with the least risk, Madrid & Istanbul could arguably be interchagable with the next least risky, & then Doha & Baku fighting it out for last place.

The IOC doesn't foolishly just chose places sinmply bcuz they've never hosted before. There at least has to be some amount of credibility to the bid before they can do so. It took Brazil 4 times to show themselves before the IOC finally said; "okay, your plans are acceptable enough this time around".

Link to post
Share on other sites

Third, there is Paris with its wish for SOG 2024 so I expect a big opposition to Madrid's bid from their side.

But also expect the support from Africans, Americans, etc. as there may also be wishes for 2024 from South Africa, the United States, Canada... and even India or Malaysia. There's going to be some opposition to Madrid coming from Europe, but it will be supported by those who want Europe out of the way for 2024.

Link to post
Share on other sites

With Hollande just winning the French elections over Sarkozy, a future Paris bid seems very much questionable at this point. Considering nowadays everything is about austerity measures, France could very well say no to a bid now (if it was even on the radar TBW), much like Monti did with Rome 2020 & putting a full-stop to it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

But also expect the support from Africans, Americans, etc. as there may also be wishes for 2024 from South Africa, the United States, Canada... and even India or Malaysia. There's going to be some opposition to Madrid coming from Europe, but it will be supported by those who want Europe out of the way for 2024.

Why particularly Madrid? Depends on the shortlist but as for now all those nations have four more bids to vote for ;)

Link to post
Share on other sites

With Hollande just winning the French elections over Sarkozy, a future Paris bid seems very much questionable at this point. Considering nowadays everything is about austerity measures, France could very well say no to a bid now (if it was even on the radar TBW), much like Monti did with Rome 2020 & putting a full-stop to it.

It isn't because of austerity Paris won't bid. Hollande was the anti-austerity candidate in these French elections - he wants to renegotiate the Eurozone's fiscal pact, create more public sector jobs and increase spending to create growth. In this sense, it's weird that he is the one who is anti-Olympic whilst Sarkozy, the austerity candidate was promising a Paris bid.

But that's not because of the cost but rather becuase of what the Games represent. Sarkozy was pushing the Olympic bid in an attempt to boost national pride, Hollande is against a Games bid because he is a socialist candidate who sees the Games as corporate and elitist and unlikely to help the people of France.

I think I'm right in that analysis anyway. Comparing Hollande's motivations to Monti's is not really right because the former is an anti-austerity populist riding a wave of popular support, whilst the latter is a technocrat installed to impose cuts and stablise an economy. They couldn't be more different really. They might both up ending their countries' hopes of hosting an Olympics, but only Monti would have done this for reasons of austerity.

Edited by RobH
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Why particularly Madrid? Depends on the shortlist but as for now all those nations have four more bids to vote for ;)

Because, as I see it, Madrid is probably the only one that would almost automatically rule out all the European strong bidders (Paris, Rome, Berlin...) for 2024.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I too am impressed with the way Baku is running the race. I feel like they are putting their best foot forward and are making the right decisions concerning their bid. I see them as the "lil engine that could" They are still the biggest longshots of all the candidates but if they were to be awarded it I would understand why.

As for the Support or lack of Support for Mardid from other European countries. Quite frankly I feel all of Europe knows that these next 2 cycles are out of their hands. the recession on the continent has become way to great to ignore and award the largest sporting event in the world to the country most affected by it. and they would be stupid to believe that next cycle would be there year especially considering a possible African or American bid. Yes we know that Europe wants the games but the Integrity of the organization has to be kept intact the IOC does not want another Athens on it's hands. so I will say Madrid is out.

Turkey I believe shot themselves in the foot with the Euro Cup bid. I don't know if they bid thinking someone else was going to bid with them thus making it a started bid for a more serious 2024 Euro Cup or if they truly bid to win it but if they are awarded the 2020 Euro Cup they are out completely for the Olympics. Which is sad seeing that they actually had the best shot they had in decades. Next Cycle will not be as easy for them if South Africa, or an American city or a Canadian city comes forth.

2024 looks like it is going to be the throwdown year, African, North America, Europe, and u never know if Australia is going to want in on the race. All for continents would have a legit claim for the games.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The only way I could see Baku getting this is if all the other 2020 bids literally fell apart & the IOC were then desperate. And even then, I would think that the IOC would make a call-out on previous hosts.

As for 2024, Africa, North America or Europe could make a 'legit' claim for the Games, especially Africa. But Australia, not really. Still way too soon since Sydney 2000 for a nation of not even 25 million to host again in only 24 years, & a 3rd Games within 68 years.

Link to post
Share on other sites

As for 2024, Africa, North America or Europe could make a 'legit' claim for the Games, especially Africa. But Australia, not really. Still way too soon since Sydney 2000 for a nation of not even 25 million to host again in only 24 years, & a 3rd Games within 68 years.

Yes, I'm constantly amazed by the wishful thinking of some of my fellow Aussies here.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Third, there is Paris with its wish for SOG 2024 so I expect a big opposition to Madrid's bid from their side.

U think so? Durban/South Africa is the one to watch out for in 2024. Nothing official has come out of Paris and I doubt that the new Socialist gov't (which could change again in a few years...before 2016) would be eager to back a Paris 2024 bid. The French socialists and the Right seem more eager to put their house in order rather than engaging in some "international" parties which will bring more "foreigners" to French soil.

Link to post
Share on other sites

and Izmirs expo application.

That too! I'm wondering if that even came up in the IOC talks. I mean Spain (in better times) was able to handle it for 1992; Brazil is about to do 2014 and 2016 because their economy is so robust. But really, what Turkey is attempting...not even China was brazen enough to do in ONE year.

At least China only went for an Asian Games 2 years ago together with their Shanghai 2010 World Expo. But, emre, that is the world's #2 economy, with a market of 1.3 billion people to support all those prestige projects. Turkey is not even 1/10th China's resources, riches and population. Turkey appears too desperate with it bidding for anything that moves.

Link to post
Share on other sites

But it's not Turkey's fault they're the only serious bidder for Euro 2020. I think it's silly for the IOC to penalize Turkey for having ambitions. I actually applaud Turkey for expressing interest in Euro 2020 because just in case they end up losing the 2020 Olympics, they have a consolation prize in the Euro. Looking at the field now for the 2020 Olympic race, there are so many candidates that could easily win this race but chose not to bid because they were scared off for one reason or another (Toronto, Chicago, Paris, Berlin, Durban to name a few). Turkey is being bold and proactive.

If I were Turkey, I'd take the position that I am interested in both, but if we win the bid for the 2020 Olympics, then that will become our priority. If Turkey happens to still be the only Euro 2020 bidder at that time, then we can either accept the hosting duties for Euro 2020 but don't expect anything fancy, or the UEFA can choose to find themselves another bidder. I'd make it clear from the start that Turkey is interested in both, but reserves the right to withdraw at any time circumstances change where changes are needed. And considering it's arguable the UEFA needs Turkey more than Turkey needs the UEFA for 2020 at this time, I think they'd understand.

But to me Istanbul looks like the favorite every city has a negative really but to me Istanbul has it all, people are favoring Tokyo but i'm unsure i know this has been discussed way too much but i still feel the fukushima issue will factor in, and Istanbul has been determined for longer, they can't host both. And if no other city applies in 8 days they've won they'll get shortlisted for Olympics but will fail to win, and i'm sure this will also have a bad impact for the future the no we are bidding and hosting something else, even though the IOC will reject it they will be pissed off that Istanbul decided to stick with euro and not abandon. and like someone said if they do abandon it'll be seen badly so its a lose lose situation. Sorry Istanbul but you dug yourself into a big hole.

Link to post
Share on other sites
As for the Support or lack of Support for Mardid from other European countries. Quite frankly I feel all of Europe knows that these next 2 cycles are out of their hands. the recession on the continent has become way to great to ignore and award the largest sporting event in the world to the country most affected by it. and they would be stupid to believe that next cycle would be there year especially considering a possible African or American bid. Yes we know that Europe wants the games but the Integrity of the organization has to be kept intact the IOC does not want another Athens on it's hands. so I will say Madrid is out.

That's ignoring the fact that Madrid has nearly all its venues built where as Athens' plan required a lot of new buildings. Madrid 2020 would not be another Athens. The biggest issues with Madrid with regard to finance are whether Spain can raise the private sponsorship needed, and the issue of public perception. The latter seems not to be an issue (from what I gather Spain seems to be behind this bid), the former might offer Madrid some difficulty, however. But that's no reason to rule them out, absolutely not.

Turkey I believe shot themselves in the foot with the Euro Cup bid. I don't know if they bid thinking someone else was going to bid with them thus making it a started bid for a more serious 2024 Euro Cup or if they truly bid to win it but if they are awarded the 2020 Euro Cup they are out completely for the Olympics.

Neither. They bid thinking "if we don't get the Olympics, we'll have a chance at still getting the Euros". Don't forget, UEFA's vote is supposed to be AFTER the IOC's.

The Istanbul bid is now in all sorts of trouble because it looks like Turkey is the only bidder for Euro 2020. This means UEFA won't run a bid process and will award Turkey them by default, effectively killing Istanbul 2020 before the IOC vote.

Edited by RobH
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think that Turkey winning Euro2020 will kill the Istanbul 2020 bid. I haven't read it will.

Euro 2020 will involve 9/10 stadiums of which only 2 can be in Istanbul. And as one of the world's leading tourist destinations Turkey can handle the numbers - it does so annually.

Also, with so many global and continental sporting events, and with the world in economic turmoil, will the IOC want to send the message that you can only bid for one event, therefore potentially reducing the number of contenders bidding for future Olympics.

We've seen bidders drop like flies for 2022, leaving the IOC facing a choice by default, and I think perversely that the IOC might send a message, that if you can afford to host the games and can prove you can, then we don't have a problem with that.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I would think Istanbul will be the forerunner, as this city does not have geographical & economical problem. IOC members might give to a safer bid.

Madrid could hope sentimental votes to help the city wins the bid. If Madrid not winning for 2020 bid, Europe will have no game for next 10 years (if Sochi not counted). France's influence to get the 2020 Games out from Europe, in order to let Paris have more chance in 2024, might be dimmed.

Tokyo is too near to 2018 PyeongChang, and traditionally, it is unlikely to let same continent (except Europe) to host Games within too short time. Tokyo should know that when the city placed the bids.

Baku still new, but shortlisting for this time can boast its chance for next time.

Doha could get lots of support from Islamic countries, but so does for Baku and Istanbul. 2022 World Cup has slammed its Olympic bids.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think that Turkey winning Euro2020 will kill the Istanbul 2020 bid. I haven't read it will.

Euro 2020 will involve 9/10 stadiums of which only 2 can be in Istanbul. And as one of the world's leading tourist destinations Turkey can handle the numbers - it does so annually.

Also, with so many global and continental sporting events, and with the world in economic turmoil, will the IOC want to send the message that you can only bid for one event, therefore potentially reducing the number of contenders bidding for future Olympics.

We've seen bidders drop like flies for 2022, leaving the IOC facing a choice by default, and I think perversely that the IOC might send a message, that if you can afford to host the games and can prove you can, then we don't have a problem with that.

The IOC will want to send exactly the opposite message. If you bid for the Olympics, they must be the only game in town. Full stop. And they are exactly right. The Games are too big, too complex and too much of a privilege to be part of somebody's loony idea of multi-tasking. They need total government support and total focus if they are going to be realized successfully.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I would think Istanbul will be the forerunner, as this city does not have geographical & economical problem. IOC members might give to a safer bid.

Madrid could hope sentimental votes to help the city wins the bid. If Madrid not winning for 2020 bid, Europe will have no game for next 10 years (if Sochi not counted). France's influence to get the 2020 Games out from Europe, in order to let Paris have more chance in 2024, might be dimmed.

Tokyo is too near to 2018 PyeongChang, and traditionally, it is unlikely to let same continent (except Europe) to host Games within too short time. Tokyo should know that when the city placed the bids.

Baku still new, but shortlisting for this time can boast its chance for next time.

Doha could get lots of support from Islamic countries, but so does for Baku and Istanbul. 2022 World Cup has slammed its Olympic bids.

Even without the Euro debacle, one could argue that Istanbul was, at best, running third.

Europe and North America have both had back to back Games more than once. It's only fair that it should happen in Asia. Continental rotation is not a hard and fast rule. If anything Fukushima will help Tokyo -- not hurt. It gives them a story of rebuilding and regeneration to tell. It enables them to tug on the heart strings and I have no doubt they'll do that successfully.

Madrid is closer to Istanbul and is hobbled by financial concerns, but they've made exceptionally strong showing unexpectedly in the last two contests. They have an impressive Olympic pedigree, outstanding relationships with the IOC, many existing venues and an outstanding technical plan.

By contrast, Istanbul didn't even make the shortlist the last time they bid. Their plan is not much improved. Venues are still very spread out and transportation is a big concern. Their PR has been lackluster at best and I would say they rank last in terms of generating enthusiasm about the bid.

Istanbul had a chance here, but they needed to play all their cards right. They could've been a contender, but they really wasted the opportunity.

Link to post
Share on other sites

altho, in Turkey's defense, up against the quixotic Qataris (who did manage to pull off the 2022 WC victory), the situation they present isn't nearly as bad as tiny Qatar, already committed to staging WC 2022, now also wants to tackle the 2020 SOG in a country of 1.5 million people. I mean, Turkey with 72 million people, a metropolis that could fit all of Qatar 3x over, couldn't carry off the double Euro-Olympics play?

I think if they moved the Euros to May, the Olympics to September, hired a number of foreign consultants to call the shots (ahem...Delhi 2010, this would be the most painful for Turkish pride), and their economy continues to hum along, it could be doable.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Move the Euros to May? :lol: So what, we cancel the Champions League final, FA Cup final, final league games in the European leagues just to accommodate Turkey?

Not going to happen. If Turkey gets the Euros they'll host it a few weeks after the end of the European season, when it's supposed to be i.e. in June.

Edited by RobH
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Move the Euros to May? :lol: So what, we cancel the Champions League final, FA Cup final, final league games in the European leagues just to accommodate Turkey?

Well, it's really more to accommodate the IOC rather than Turkey per se since the Olympics are the grand poobah of them all, and nothing must get within smelling distance of the Olympics.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...