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2020: Who's the Frontrunner?


  

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  1. 1. Who's the frontrunner in the 2020 race so far?



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If Jaca was in 98... I´m sure they are a BIGGEST problem in Madrid bid. I think the only problem in the bid is the economy. And if the games will go to Madrid, the money will go to Madrid, becouse the games is a very important event. Ok, our economy isn´t the Japan economy, but usa economy is more big than the brazil... and 2016 aren´t in Chicago... or the capital of the world, NY, this year don´t celebrate the games... if CIO votes for economy... Barcelona never had the games... this year was winner Paris. no remember?

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If, as looks likely, Turkey is the only candidate for Euro 2020 I'd find it impossible to believe their government would turn around to UEFA and say "actually, no, we don't want this". That'd be such

I think Turkey saying they want the European Championships and the Olympics will work against them. The IOC is not going to want a big show in town in June and the Olympics in August.

It's impossible for any country to stage the same year two major sport events such as Euro and the Olympic Games (and this has nothing to do with Turkey). It would create major challenges regarding ma

Well, Mexico and the So. American votes will stick with Madrid. As for where the uncommitted European, African, Caribbean and No. American votes will go, they will split between Tokyo and Istanbul. I think we won't really know until the actual election day itself.

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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If Jaca was in 98... I´m sure they are a BIGGEST problem in Madrid bid. I think the only problem in the bid is the economy. And if the games will go to Madrid, the money will go to Madrid, becouse the games is a very important event. Ok, our economy isn´t the Japan economy, but usa economy is more big than the brazil... and 2016 aren´t in Chicago... or the capital of the world, NY, this year don´t celebrate the games... if CIO votes for economy... Barcelona never had the games... this year was winner Paris. no remember?

OMG....

So much to say after your post...

You seemed pretty new here on GB, and new on the olympic business... and probably also new in economy !

- Barcelona was in 1992... so another age in term of olympic economy... in term of investments needed and in term of operational costs (the games were smaller)

- Barcelona won over Paris... because Samaranch change the order of the vote at the last minute with the Winter election coming before the Summer one (remember that at that time winter & summer games were the same year !)... in order to get Albertville elected to let an easy win of Barcelona against Paris (impossible to get the 2 games in the same country)...

- Regarding Rio 2016... for sure the economy of Brazil is a lower level than the USA.... but what made Chicago lose in the first round was some lack in their technical bid, the problem with the IOC regarding the revenues sharing (TV rights & TOP sponsors) !!!

- Comparing Brazil economy and Spain economy.... is like comparing to cars driving in an opposite way.... One economy (brazil) is a growing one... when the Spain one is in recession.....

- And finally, Rio 2016 had 3 great leaders to promote their bid : NOC president & IOC member Carlos Nuzman, IOC member Joao Havelange and Federal President Lula da Silva.... After the death of Samaranch Senior... where are Spain leaders ???

So sorry, because of economy, barcelona 92, lack of leaders, europe protection for future games.... Madrid is not a favorite in this race....

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First, Chicago's bid was technically very string and not a reason for the loss. The reason for the loss was largely political: tension between the IOC and USOC over the revenue deal, Olympic network and other matters. Plus, as a new frontier, Rio was anointed fairly early on once the IOC was convinced they could meet the fundamental standards.

As for Madrid, the spirit of Samaranch will hover over this 2020 bid and it WILL make a difference. I wouldn't even be surprised to see them use video footage of his 2016 plea in their presentation. This will carry weight.

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As for Madrid, the spirit of Samaranch will hover over this 2020 bid and it WILL make a difference. I wouldn't even be surprised to see them use video footage of his 2016 plea in their presentation. This will carry weight.

I don't think...or hope, Madrid will be THAT tacky. It didn't work in Copenhagen 3 years ago when he was alive. Why should it work now? :rolleyes:

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The plea got them to the final round of 2016 despite the fact that they weren't remotely favored to win and despite the fact that Europe is hosting both 2012 and 2014. I'd say it worked pretty well.

I don't know if they'll use the video or not, but they will invoke the memory of Samaranch and it will be emotional and persuasive. Especially considering that, like PC, this is their third consecutive, highly competent bid.

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I don't know, but I think Asian won't vote for Tokyo, they still want to join the race maybe for 2024 or the lucky '8' the 2028, so don't expect the Asians will vote for Tokyo, Tokyo will receive vote from European, Doha definitely will have support form Middle East, and some of Islam country, I can see Indonesia maybe will vote for Doha, Brazil maybe will vote for Madrid, the other I can't predict

Apart from China, who really has both the desire to bid for 2024/2028 and the power the influence the IOC? Korea is happy with PC, and I'm not sure how much clout the Southeast Asian countries have, even if they wanted to stop Tokyo. And that's assuming China is even interested, considering they just had a Games. I could see the Asians voting for Tokyo.

Actually, I know SOG isn't same with the WOG, and the Spain's case is different that Japan's case, but I think 21 years is already long enough, and Madrid is different city than Barcelona, they have different culture...

Barcelona will be less of an issue for 2020 than it was for 2012/2016, but it's probably still in the minds of some IOC members who might think it's too early. But I think enough time has passed for Madrid to at least strongly contend for the Games.

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To add to my last message, it helps that Spain is using a different city this time around. Had it been Madrid that hosted in 1992, I'd say it's way too early to host again. But 30 years is a decent amount of time go back to the same country with another city. Psychologically speaking, it's easier to digest a Toronto 2008 or Brisbane 2032 than it is to digest a Montreal 2008 or Sydney 2032.

Me thinks China wants Shanghai to bid.

They might, but they know the IOC wasn't too happy with having no say during the preparation for Beijing. And they might also be interested in a Winter Games first. Even for a country like China, who is probably the only country apart from the US which can host so soon after their last Games, it'll be an uphill battle to bid so soon.

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Okay, please care to explain why you would expect IOC members from Asia and Oceania to vote for Tokyo!? Why no Baku for Asia, for example...

IMO, i see almost all middle eastern votes going to Doha (The GCC is already providing full backing and technical/logistical support.) members from the monarchies of Jordan and Morocco are most likely to vote for Doha aswell.

Let the worldwide PR lobbying bribing process begin! Cant wait for the controversies to start pouring,,.

i dont tink so morrocco and egypt will vote for Doha. they wont like another arab country will host the games before dem and which is not a sporting nation like their..Gulf region may vote Doha except UAE rival Dubai.

greece germany usa and brazil will back istanbul im sure like my name

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Okay, please care to explain why you would expect IOC members from Asia and Oceania to vote for Tokyo!? Why no Baku for Asia, for example...

I don't think Baku will be shortlisted, so I did not include them. Chinese IOC members supposedly voted for Tokyo in the 2016 race, and I would think many in the region would like as many Games close to home as possible. South Korea might swing their support to Tokyo this time since they have their 2018 games. That is why I think a majority (not all) of at least eastern Asian countries will go to Tokyo. It's just an assumption.

It will be interesting to hear developments for Istanbul and Doha, and which middle eastern IOC members may be supporting who.

They are both probably praying that the other does not get shortlisted

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i dont tink so morrocco and egypt will vote for Doha. they wont like another arab country will host the games before dem and which is not a sporting nation like their..Gulf region may vote Doha except UAE rival Dubai.

greece germany usa and brazil will back istanbul im sure like my name

Dubai might bid for 2018 YOG instead

and Egypt's idea of hosting an olympics has been severely damaged for another 20-50 years

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Not so Fast the US is contemplating bidding for 2022 and i want to see the IOC handle the fall out from denying them another set of games.

Note I said "looks good", not "will win". I am judging them based off the second place in the last ballot and the strength of the bid. If the US comes in, be it with Denver, SLC or Reno/Tahoe, I will consider that bid on its merits as well. But to my mind, if they bid, Munich has to be considered a favorite for 2022.

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Europeans are TOO SELFISH as you said, we have the greatest example with Munich's loose despite being a more appropiate choice, but the 2022 scenario for Switzerland and other European countries helped in their predictable loose. Istanbul has a really good chance since isn't too "typically european" Turkey is Europe but still's a new frontier...

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I really would not expect the American IOC members to vote for Istanbul. I think they'll weigh their votes very carefully and seriously consider who they want to align themselves with. I suspect the Americans will vote for Madrid because it will make an American bid more possible in 2024 or 2028. Also, Madrid 2020 could provide a little help for an American bid for 2022. Tokyo and Istanbul wouldnt dissuade anybody from Europe in 2022. Madrid might at least have a small effect.

Of course there's also the possibility that they will be honorable and simply vote for whichever bid they believe to be best.

Regardless, I see no reason to expect them to vote for Istanbul at this point.

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I really would not expect the American IOC members to vote for Istanbul. I think they'll weigh their votes very carefully and seriously consider who they want to align themselves with. I suspect the Americans will vote for Madrid because it will make an American bid more possible in 2024 or 2028. Also, Madrid 2020 could provide a little help for an American bid for 2022. Tokyo and Istanbul wouldnt dissuade anybody from Europe in 2022. Madrid might at least have a small effect.

Of course there's also the possibility that they will be honorable and simply vote for whichever bid they believe to be best.

Regardless, I see no reason to expect them to vote for Istanbul at this point.

Well, what if the final two are Istanbul and Tokyo? They're going to have to decide one way or the other. So the Madrid scenario is an exercise in futility.

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Unless Madrid is in the final two...

I did not bring up this subject. I'm responding to someone else who argued it was a certainty that the US will support Istanbul. I think it's more likely they'll support Madrid for however long Madrid is in the contest.

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Mmm Doha is a better choice over Dubai... That's clear i guess :P

I think that if Baku is shortlisted they will be the first eliminated in the voting... Where things will get intresting is when Doha is out they will vote for Istanbul, so the final round must be Tokyo-Istanbul/Madrid where Istanbul can find Tokyo a more difficult rival than Madrid... But the 3rd voting round will be the most important depoending on who is out there ;)

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Baku has a good chance with 2022 YOG a really good chance ;) Baku to host SOG oooo it might take some years.... :lol:

decades

Europeans are TOO SELFISH as you said, we have the greatest example with Munich's loose despite being a more appropiate choice, but the 2022 scenario for Switzerland and other European countries helped in their predictable loose. Istanbul has a really good chance since isn't too "typically european" Turkey is Europe but still's a new frontier...

more appropriate choice? pc was a great candidate narrowly lost 2 Olympics in a row, they were definitely a great choice

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decades

I don't think so, if they lose 2020, they will bid again for 2024.

This time with far more infrastructure in place including:

A completed Olympic Stadium (they say on their website that it will be temporarily be expanded to 80,000 for the games and being what under construction and all this is possible, otherwise, It might be a hard sell for an already completed legacy mode venue to be expanded to 80,000, unless that figure would serve as a legacy capacity).

A fully expanded Expo Center.

White City fully complete minus the villages and MPC.

Various other key venues complete.

Where the 2020 bid would have 2-3 times the hotel capacity already available (than 2016 bid), the 2024 bid should have 3-4 times more.

New airport terminal fully complete and other general transport projects complete/underway.

So I don't think it would be decades, but if Istanbul wins 2020, I doubt that the IOC would really be keen on going to a new frontier for a 3rd time in a row and choose a city from a country which has hosted before (could even be a city which has hosted before).

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