Jump to content

2020: Who's the Frontrunner?


  

99 members have voted

  1. 1. Who's the frontrunner in the 2020 race so far?



Recommended Posts

the bids is low cost, no the project. other years the madrid bids had a party, in 2012´s bid shakira and the largest flag. In 2016 the "flashmod" with the olympic colours.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yjey4FSfOA

But who cares, Javier? Spain, for a middling country already had its moment of glory in 1992. Paris, Berlin and Russia have yet to celebrate another Summer Games...and yet you think Spain deserves another? No, senor, it ain't gonna happen.

What AthensFan says is disingenous because they purposely denied New York 2012 and Chicago 2016 because the US has had a few too many Games before other nations have. The IOC wants to distribute their products as equitably as possible.

Edited by baron-pierreIV
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 592
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

If, as looks likely, Turkey is the only candidate for Euro 2020 I'd find it impossible to believe their government would turn around to UEFA and say "actually, no, we don't want this". That'd be such

I think Turkey saying they want the European Championships and the Olympics will work against them. The IOC is not going to want a big show in town in June and the Olympics in August.

It's impossible for any country to stage the same year two major sport events such as Euro and the Olympic Games (and this has nothing to do with Turkey). It would create major challenges regarding ma

Seriously ? this is how economy is calculated now -_-

If so the Doha should win :P

Highest GDP per capita in the world

Free health care, education, electricity and water.

No income tax or any form of tax.

Free plot of land and a major grant to cover the costs of building a house.

Yeah, and Qatar is practically the size of Philadelphia and they have never even sent a woman to the Olympics! That's a country we want to give the Games to. I propose Luxembourg or Swaziland bid for 2024. They stand a great shot too!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Unless you guys are living the moon world, this crisis is not about growth of GDP, but on how big is the debt of the countries.

It sounds a bit weird countries like Spain or Italy, with huge debt (near total GDP or bigger), to spend money in some huge International Loolapalooza.

Remember 2016 race, Rio already pressed the economic card so hard and got the games in part because of it (Apart the map or slogans, Brazilian Finance Minister and Central Bank President were in Copenhagen to discuss - which was pleased by IOC and international press)...

Imagine now in the middle of the crisis how much the economic affairs will be part of the game...

If economic play a role in this race, adiós Madrid.

If projects are taken first (let's face it, the last races have not been about best projects), Madrid is still on and front runner, IMO.

Link to post
Share on other sites

On the surface this looks like a fair question, but the fact is that the IOC can only evaluate the bids they have in front of them. Spain consistently presents compelling bids. The other's don't. It's not Spain's fault that the IOC chose Greece over Italy or the UK over France. Italy, France and Germany aren't in this race so there's no point in arguing they should be given a chance. They didn't give themselves a chance because they didn't bid. If the IOC concludes that Madrid has the most to offer for 2020, I have no problem with Spain hosting again. The IOC can't make decisions based on suppositions about who may or may not bid at some point in the future. They must work with the options before them.

What AthensFan says is disingenous because they purposely denied New York 2012 and Chicago 2016 because the US has had a few too many Games before other nations have. The IOC wants to distribute their products as equitably as possible.

I have to side with baron on this one. Athens, you're right that the IOC can only evaluate the bids in front of them, but the usual shenanigans and geo-politics could make a difference here. It has nothing to do with where they might go in the future, but it gives voters a reason to say no to Madrid, even if their bid does have the most to offer. And especially if you're a voter from a country like France or Germany or someone who might have their eyes on the 2024 race, they know it might be in their best interests to keep the games away from Madrid for 2020. You say the IOC can't make decisions based on the future? How many times have we seen things like that happen. No reason to think it wouldn't come into play here.

Link to post
Share on other sites

At my point of view... Italy didn't bid this time when the race was quite easy... Spain has tried A LOT of times, Seville, Jaca, Madrid itself... All of them have tried to many times before, that's why i support a little bit Madrid (Actually I SUPPORT ISTANBUL,, but Madrid's my second choice) the perceverance leeds to success, you can't blame them for trying everytime... Also Madrid is WAY TOO DIFRENT from Barcelona!!! I've been in booth and you can almost feel are difrent countries. But... France, Italy, Germany deserve to host the SOG first... But if they don't try then is not possible...

The 2010 decision was certainly influenced by Euro IOC members eying 2012. 2020 could certainly be decided based on IOC members interest in 2022 and 2024 I guess.

That makes Istanbul and Tokyo strong. :P

Link to post
Share on other sites

My post was about my personal attitude towards Spain. It was not about how I believe the IOC will vote (I've said multiple times months before Rome's withdrawal that my guess is Tokyo).

I do think it is strange to say that even if Madrid seems to be the best host for 2020 it would be wrong (as another poster suggested) to award them the Games when France, Italy and Germany have not hosted Summer Games recently. France, Italy and Germany are not in the 2020 race and may or may not bid anytime soon. Many had anointed Durban for 2020 and they did not bid. There is no way to predict the future with enough certainty to base ones decision on such hypothetical criteria.

The IOC has five cities to chose from for 2020. I believe they will choose the one they consider most qualified (probably Tokyo). However, I would not begrudge Spain another Games simply because their neighbors (who aren't even in this race) have failed to land them. I do not know what the IOC will do, but my guess is that some of them will agree with me (as suggested by Madrid's strong showing in 2012 and 2016).

I see no connection here to NYC or Chicago and I don't understand why they were brought up.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The IOC has five cities to chose from for 2020. I believe they will choose the one they consider most qualified (probably Tokyo). However, I would not begrudge Spain another Games simply because their neighbors (who aren't even in this race) have failed to land them. I do not know what the IOC will do, but my guess is that some of them will agree with me (as suggested by Madrid's strong showing in 2012 and 2016).

I see no connection here to NYC or Chicago and I don't understand why they were brought up.

Again, how often have we seen decisions made that have less to do with qualifications and more to do with geo-politics? You're right it's not Spain's fault that other European countries like France and Germany and now Italy aren't in this race. But remember that there are people connected with those countries that may view a Madrid win as a threat to their own interests and Barcelona 1992 might just be all the excuse they need to say they aren't voting for Madrid this time. All one needs to do is look at the 2016 race. Obviously it's a very debatable point who had the best bid, but it could be argued that Chicago was the most qualified and yet they got passed over because the United States had hosted too recently. How many times did you make that very argument against NYC and Chicago? So why is it not plausible that the same argument could affect the decision for Madrid? (Key word: "could")

You are right about one thing though.. all that matters is how they match up against this competition. But you know as well as the rest of us that there is more to the Olympic bidding process than we know. So it could (again, key word there.. "could") be a factor in the decision process, even if Madrid is perceived to have the best bid of the 5. If it's your opinion that the voters won't see it that way, I can understand that viewpoint. But I don't think it's necessarily the case.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm with Athensfan and FYI on this. It's not about who deserves to host. If you don't bid, you don't deserve anything until you place a bet. Madrid has found itself in a pretty sweet spot, having decided to bid in what is turning out to be a very winable race. Tough luck for Paris, Berlin and Rome. I'll admit that I'd be more interested in any one of Paris/Berlin/Rome than I am for Madrid, but for most IOC members without any self-interest, they're not going to think "well Spain needs to wait until the others have their turn." Who knows when the others will ever bid. Madrid could very well win this time around.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm with Athensfan and FYI on this. It's not about who deserves to host. If you don't bid, you don't deserve anything until you place a bet. Madrid has found itself in a pretty sweet spot, having decided to bid in what is turning out to be a very winable race. Tough luck for Paris, Berlin and Rome. I'll admit that I'd be more interested in any one of Paris/Berlin/Rome than I am for Madrid, but for most IOC members without any self-interest, they're not going to think "well Spain needs to wait until the others have their turn." Who knows when the others will ever bid. Madrid could very well win this time around.

And how many IOC members out there don't have self interests? :D I'm not trying to downplay Madrid in any way, I'm just pointing out a potential factor in the race here. Of course, you do have Atlanta who won in 1996 amidst a weak field when it was only 12 years after "America's Games" in 1984. Madrid could very well be in the same situation here where they are simply better than the rest of the field now that 1 of the big competitors has dropped out of the race. But if it's a close race between Madrid and say, Tokyo, then this could be something that pushes Tokyo into the winner's circle. Again this, this has nothing to do with who may or may not been in the future or passing on Madrid because they need to wait their turn (although that's an argument that has been made before), it's about an IOC member deciding where he/she wants to see the Olympics in 2020. And it could be in his/her mindset to think "well, we were in Spain pretty recently, maybe if another city is pretty close, we should give it to them instead." I don't think it's a stretch at all to think a couple of votes might be decided that way, especially for anyone who would make the continental rotation argument for/against Tokyo.

Link to post
Share on other sites

And how many IOC members out there don't have self interests? :D I'm not trying to downplay Madrid in any way, I'm just pointing out a potential factor in the race here. Of course, you do have Atlanta who won in 1996 amidst a weak field when it was only 12 years after "America's Games" in 1984. Madrid could very well be in the same situation here where they are simply better than the rest of the field now that 1 of the big competitors has dropped out of the race. But if it's a close race between Madrid and say, Tokyo, then this could be something that pushes Tokyo into the winner's circle. Again this, this has nothing to do with who may or may not been in the future or passing on Madrid because they need to wait their turn (although that's an argument that has been made before), it's about an IOC member deciding where he/she wants to see the Olympics in 2020. And it could be in his/her mindset to think "well, we were in Spain pretty recently, maybe if another city is pretty close, we should give it to them instead." I don't think it's a stretch at all to think a couple of votes might be decided that way, especially for anyone who would make the continental rotation argument for/against Tokyo.

I agree with that, I think Tokyo has a stronger argument than Madrid does for hosting 2020. And they're both in the race, so Tokyo will be given lots of consideration over Madrid. But I don't agree with anyone that says Spain will have to wait its turn until France/Germany/Italy have gone. These decisions aren't exactly linear. Just ask England's 2006 and 2018 World Cup bid team if things ever work out that way.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I still think Tokyo is the likely winner and the best contrast to Rio, but I probably should be rooting for Madrid. Getting European Games out of the way sooner rather than later will help clear the way for the US in 2024 or 2028 (whichever is not hosted by Africa). If Japan (or worse-- Turkey) gets 2020, there will be more rigorous competition for 2024 and 2028.

If a European country is definitely taking aim at 2024, their IOC members will vote for Tokyo to protect their own interests, but at this point, how many countries know they're going for 2024? Probably not many. At most we're talking about a handful of votes.

I still see Tokyo as the leader, but Madrid has fared very well in recent races and I expect them to mount a tough challenge. Istanbul has a lot of work to do to keep pace with those two. The Turkish bid intrigues me. It will be interesting to see if they have the chops....

Link to post
Share on other sites

, but Madrid has fared very well in recent races and I expect them to mount a tough challenge.

Only because the Old Man was still alive...but even then couldn't really carry the day, could he? And notice, he wasn't anywhere near the 2018 FIFA race...and there, Spain did even worse than its Madrid-IOC showings. So with him (and a number of his generation) no longer around, how much better could Spain do?

Edited by baron-pierreIV
Link to post
Share on other sites

Where do you expect African and N. and S. American IOC members votes to go? I think those members will be lobbied the most since there is no bidder from these regions.

I see the Asian vote consolidating around Tokyo. The Middle Eastern vote consolidating around Istanbul and possibly Doha. I think Euro members will be split between Tokyo, Istanbul and Madrid. I can see Oceania votes going to Tokyo as well.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Where do you expect African and N. and S. American IOC members votes to go? I think those members will be lobbied the most since there is no bidder from these regions.

I see the Asian vote consolidating around Tokyo. The Middle Eastern vote consolidating around Istanbul and possibly Doha. I think Euro members will be split between Tokyo, Istanbul and Madrid. I can see Oceania votes going to Tokyo as well.

Okay, please care to explain why you would expect IOC members from Asia and Oceania to vote for Tokyo!? Why no Baku for Asia, for example...

IMO, i see almost all middle eastern votes going to Doha (The GCC is already providing full backing and technical/logistical support.) members from the monarchies of Jordan and Morocco are most likely to vote for Doha aswell.

Let the worldwide PR lobbying bribing process begin! Cant wait for the controversies to start pouring,,.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know, but I think Asian won't vote for Tokyo, they still want to join the race maybe for 2024 or the lucky '8' the 2028, so don't expect the Asians will vote for Tokyo, Tokyo will receive vote from European, Doha definitely will have support form Middle East, and some of Islam country, I can see Indonesia maybe will vote for Doha, Brazil maybe will vote for Madrid, the other I can't predict

Link to post
Share on other sites

I listen from 2012 bids the barcelona 92´s problem... and the need of the games in Paris, Berlin or Rome before. But in 2012, Madrid only had 2 votes less than Paris... (1 if the greek had voted) I think that the problem is other... not Barcelona. Tokio had loss front Madrid... Madrid and Barcelona is very different and the distant is long, 600 km. Istambul and Sochi is 900. And 1000 inter Tokio and PyeongChang...

Link to post
Share on other sites

I listen from 2012 bids the barcelona 92´s problem... and the need of the games in Paris, Berlin or Rome before. But in 2012, Madrid only had 2 votes less than Paris... (1 if the greek had voted) I think that the problem is other... not Barcelona. Tokio had loss front Madrid... Madrid and Barcelona is very different and the distant is long, 600 km. Istambul and Sochi is 900. And 1000 inter Tokio and PyeongChang...

You could not compare the 2012 & 2016 Madrid bids, as Samaranch was still alive and was pushing to get a last game at home before dieing !

So that now He passes away, you have to consider all parameters and the Barcelona one 21 years ago from the vote, is one of the issue for Madrid...

Link to post
Share on other sites

If Barcelona'92 could affect Madrid's 2020 chance, then Nagano 1998 should affect too right ??

No! not in the same way.... Winter Games are not Summer Games.... less countries have the possibilities to bid & more less to host properly....

And Japan is not Spain (economically speaking)....

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...