2020: Who's the Frontrunner?

[dave199]

I just can't see Madrid winning this after Rome's bow out. Spain finances is just as bad or even worse than Italy. I just find it a waste of money for them to bid. Yes, its nice to go after an Olympics but when your country is suffering from a pretty bad recession, it just seems like wasteful spending on an Olympic bid campaign when the cards are stacked against you.

Hands down this is easily a Tokyo vs. Istanbul showdown.

But I think for the IOC to curb bid-spending, they should immediately close the gates on Baku and Doha. No use stringing them along and it'll probably be easier to control the spending of Madrid, Istanbul and Tokyo.

I totally agree with this.

[Soaring]

Well, we know that possibly Germany, France and Italy's IOC members are going to shift their votes to Tokyo, but does anyone see other Euro IOC members consolidating their votes behind the remaining Western European country?

Is Italy's fiscal situation going to be much better in a few years when they have to start preparing another bid? What if it seems unlikely they will bid for 2024 at the tail end of the 2020 bid race? Wouldn't they want to get a European country out of the way sooner, rather than later? Especially if South Africa gets hot and heavy for 2024?

I don't know, but I am just throwing these scenarios out there.

I am not going to underestimate Madrid's chances. I can see them making it to the final vote.

[alphamale86]

And, I can't remember who said it, but someone posted yesterday that it wasn't so much the notion of hosting that made the decision to drop out likely - like most potential bidders, if Rome had some inkling it was more likely than most to win the bid, I'm sure they might have stuck it out. But the sheer cost of an expensive bid with no certainty of any pay-off or reward at the end would certainly have been unpalatable for a government committed to demonstrating it's serious about austerity measures..

Thanks Sir Rols. I made that statement yesterday. Winning was the only option for the italians and that wasn't guaranteed this cycle.

And to FYI, Yes, I said it was wise for them to pull out. My attack on Rome has never been that it wasn't capable of hosting the games it's more of a fact that the focus of the people is on more pressing matters and if they see you (Government) throwing money at something else especially in times of austerity they aren't going to respond well much less if they were to lose. As I said before Rome had to win that bid or else that money would have looked like a waste of public funds. Yes you may say bidding was popular now with the people but maybe the government knows something the public doesn't know yet like maybe harsher times are ahead before it gets better.The EU has been dishing out harsher and more severe demands on it's members. Look at greece they thought they were in the clear after the last EU bailout and now the Greeks are protesting even more. Even the IOC had to admit the 2004 Games contributed to there current predicament. Italy could be heading for that as well and an olympic bid no matter how sustainable will not be a unifying call but a target for calls of frivolous spending. If You were and ELECTED OFFICIAL who recently took office specifically to fix the economy I don't think bidding would be your first priority. That is why I think it was politically a wise move on Rome's part.

I felt that this was a perfect opportunity of the IOC to finally put some "skin in this game" when they talk about keeping the Games in check but hardly ever do.

Games go over budget. That's apart of the process now. People always quote a price but go over I mean they are basing these figures 7 years out, prices go up. I bet London didn't think they would be in the position they are now when they won the bid and they still had to spend more. The IOC knows the games will go over budget but they keep tooting the old keep it cheap and watch ur economy grow from it but does that ever really happen. Was there a wave of tourism to beijing after the games? Athens? Atlanta? it's all in the politics.

When I made the istanbul point I was already considering Doha and Baku non-factors anymore but I do believe that Istanbul will be affected if Syria, it's direct neighbor, flies off the deep end. I think the rest of the board would agree with that. Turkey is a major player in that region and it shares a border with Syria. if stuff is going down Turkey will be involved. The difference between Doha and Iran is that as of now the issue with Iran is more about Posturing than actual large scale violence. Syria has massive bloodshed going on and if civil war officially erupts within these following months, there goes Istanbul 2020.

[FYI]

Perhaps you may be right about Istanbul, but then again, maybe not. Some people always tried to use the North Koreans against PyeongChang's bid, but look at how that one turned out. I'm not saying Istanbul is a favorite or anything, but other than Tokyo, they're a distant 2nd in this race IMO.

.Games go over budget. That's apart of the process now. People always quote a price but go over I mean they are basing these figures 7 years out, prices go up. I bet London didn't think they would be in the position they are now when they won the bid and they still had to spend more. The IOC knows the games will go over budget but they keep tooting the old keep it cheap and watch ur economy grow from it but does that ever really happen. Was there a wave of tourism to beijing after the games? Athens? Atlanta? it's all in the politics.

Of course Games go over budget. But Rome wasn't proposing a huge reurbanization of a whole section of town, like London is. Rome was propsing a more modest Games. Nothing like Beijing, Sochi or even London. They would've been the most pratical set of Games in a long, long while. And that was the gist of my point.

[alphamale86]

I understand that but I think you forget about that instant shot of adreneline a city gets after winning the bid. National pride takes over and we want to be the best kicks in. Here's the thing about proposing once you finally get the honor of hosting the games you kind of go overboard. London had their budget for an opening ceremony, and when the organizers saw it they doubled the budget to "Improve it", Why? Because of ego. no one wants to be the city that lowered the intensity of hosting the games. London said they were not trying to outdo Beijing but that is exactly what they are trying to do. Rome granted had a lot of infrastructure in place but renovations can be just as expensive if not more expensive as constructing a whole new stadium from scratch

[Olympic Fan Darcy]

No offense but im laughing at the people that thought Rome had the lead, i mean maybe at the start but they werent going to win

[Sir Rols]

No offense but im laughing at the people that thought Rome had the lead, i mean maybe at the start but they werent going to win

Until it started getting out that the Goverment's support was getting shaky (and while Berlusconi was still around, Government support was always pretty rock solid), I still don't think there was any reason to think otherwise that Rome could have been relied upon to deliver a pretty good games on paper. And this poll only got going as news was just surfacing that there'd be a delay in Monti's sign-off. Once that news got out and dragged on and became an obvious issue, I agree, the bid had become critically wounded. But until then it sure wasn't a bid anyone could afford to ignore. I still think it's a missed opportunity for them.

I'm really starting to warm to Tokyo now. Banzai Nippon!

[Rob2012]

Of course Games go over budget. But Rome wasn't proposing a huge reurbanization of a whole section of town, like London is. Rome was propsing a more modest Games.

Were they really though? I know Madrid is proposing a much more economical Games - simply because so much is already built there - but Rome's estimated cost was mentioned as $12.5bn on the BBC this morning. Other sources also quoting this figure.

[franxavi]

The election is in September of 2013. If spanish economy is better than now, and this is very probable, the games will be for Madrid.

[baron-pierreIV]

The election is in September of 2013. If spanish economy is better than now, and this is very probable, the games will be for Madrid.

But if not? I mean Madrid failed 2x when times were good and old man Samaranch was alive. What more now that times are dicey and the old Falangist is gone? How can you say that, franxavi? I hate to say it, but with Rome's withdrawal, that immediately scuttled Madrid's 3rd-try chances again, as well.

[franxavi]

Last three months.

GDP of Italy decrease 0.7% and Italy is in recession.

GDP of Spain decrease only 0.3% similar than Germany 0.2%. The situation in Spain is different than Italy.

[DannyelBrazil]

The problem is not GDP growth (or not) itself...

Or Luanda, Angola would be a nice place for Olympics...

I think the movement of Rome affects directly Madrid. "Concerns raised" about their bid in the middle of this financial crisis.

Japan is also not living the best of their days about economics...

Istanbul is the front runner, IMHO, right now.

If spanish economy is better than now, and this is very probable.

I wouldn't be so sure...

[alphamale86]

Even if the Spanish economy were to bounce back there isn't enough time to make sure it's stable enough. The vote is little over a year away. to prove a country is economically stable after a financial crisis you don't just look at the next 3 months and say "Oh they're ok" People will still be skeptical. Besides to the person Talking about Spain's growth let me remind them that them that the first signs of the crisis was actually in spain, then greece took the spotlight with the severity of the falloutSpain too can't afford to lose this bid but at least they are supposed not spending so much money on the bid. but when u look at it they've already spent a load of money on the previous 2 failed bids so does it matter that they are doing the third for less?

The thing about Madrid's and Tokyo's bid is that they were both started in times of prosperity. so they both feel compelled to follow through and finish the bidsNational pride is still high from the last time but as we move further on that is going to decrease as the people start to feel the crunch even more.

[intoronto]

Why should Spain host two Summer Olympics since 1992 when France, Italy and Germany have not gotten a chance.

[mattperiolat]

Why should Spain host two Summer Olympics since 1992 when France, Italy and Germany have not gotten a chance.

Would you believe dumb luck? Paris would have had a Games by now if not for JAS rigging the vote for the 1992 Games and if the French had kept their big mouths shut. Italy got the WOG in 2006 and had a reasonable chance at 2020 until Rome pulled out. As for Germany, it just hasn't worked out, but Munich looks good for 2022 if they bid.

[JavierLopez]

remember that the turkish economy is the half than the spanish... now Turkey have a very good growth, but spain´s economy is better, even in crisis time. One of the problem now is the cost of the sanity or educations, for example, in spain is "free" and for all. We only pay the university price´s, not all. For example I study fine art and my year (in total I have 4 years) cost 1200 euros.

[FYI]

Were they really though? I know Madrid is proposing a much more economical Games - simply because so much is already built there - but Rome's estimated cost was mentioned as $12.5bn on the BBC this morning. Other sources also quoting this figure.

I was making the comparison to the extravaganzes of Beijing & Sochi. N even London's plan is more ambitious than Rome's was.

Yeah, Madrid's plan may have been more practical, but even you were questioning it lately when it appears that their 2020 Olympic stadium plan is not going to be the same one as their previous two failed bids.

Plus, I was also taking into account that Italy has not had a Summer Games since 1960, so that was an edge for them against the Spanish bid.

[FYI]

Why should Spain host two Summer Olympics since 1992 when France, Italy and Germany have not gotten a chance.

Well, you would think. But then again, Germany & France aren't bidding for 2020, & Italy just pulled out after what appeared to be, at the very least, a decent shot for the Italians. The IOC can only pick from what's in front of them. But that's Y I think Tokyo has the edge over Madrid on this one. The Japanese haven't hosted a Summer Olympics since 1964, & the Turks might be the dark horse since they've never hosted at all. Just have to C what their bid books & storyline have to offer.

[qatar son 333]

remember that the turkish economy is the half than the spanish... now Turkey have a very good growth, but spain´s economy is better, even in crisis time. One of the problem now is the cost of the sanity or educations, for example, in spain is "free" and for all. We only pay the university price´s, not all. For example I study fine art and my year (in total I have 4 years) cost 1200 euros.

Seriously ? this is how economy is calculated now

If so the Doha should win

Highest GDP per capita in the world

Free health care, education, electricity and water.

No income tax or any form of tax.

Free plot of land and a major grant to cover the costs of building a house.

[emre]

remember that the turkish economy is the half than the spanish... now Turkey have a very good growth, but spain´s economy is better, even in crisis time. One of the problem now is the cost of the sanity or educations, for example, in spain is "free" and for all. We only pay the university price´s, not all. For example I study fine art and my year (in total I have 4 years) cost 1200 euros.

Half??? 1300 m USD spain 1100 m USD turkey...

one s growing -1 the other +8 ? by 2015 Turkey will pass spain in GDP and become the 5th largest econmy in europe.

1 is % 150 in depth the other % 30

all governmental universities free in Turkey and till age 12 all citizens have to have an education which is free.

turkey is one of the first countries using ipad and educational notebooks in elemnatry schools ( free for every student) instead of boards.

try to research before say st.please

altough Istanbul can host every event in te games in the same city while u have diverse some into country side.

[Athensfan]

Why should Spain host two Summer Olympics since 1992 when France, Italy and Germany have not gotten a chance.

On the surface this looks like a fair question, but the fact is that the IOC can only evaluate the bids they have in front of them. Spain consistently presents compelling bids. The other's don't. It's not Spain's fault that the IOC chose Greece over Italy or the UK over France. Italy, France and Germany aren't in this race so there's no point in arguing they should be given a chance. They didn't give themselves a chance because they didn't bid. If the IOC concludes that Madrid has the most to offer for 2020, I have no problem with Spain hosting again. The IOC can't make decisions based on suppositions about who may or may not bid at some point in the future. They must work with the options before them.

[alphamale86]

but Munich looks good for 2022 if they bid.

Not so Fast the US is contemplating bidding for 2022 and i want to see the IOC handle the fall out from denying them another set of games.

[Olympic Fan Darcy]

Seriously ? this is how economy is calculated now

If so the Doha should win

Highest GDP per capita in the world

Free health care, education, electricity and water.

No income tax or any form of tax.

Free plot of land and a major grant to cover the costs of building a house.

I want to live there! hahaha

[Olympic Fan Darcy]

Yeah if we are going to talk about economic growth or whatever i wouldn't try and say Spain is reasonable they have been a part of PIIGS for years, December last year 22.9% unemployment.

If we talking about money Qatar is of course the better option but the low population not much medal experience

but didn't Madrid also say they weren't making this bid about the money and were having a cheap cost effective one? that should go down great with the IOC

[JavierLopez]

the bids is low cost, no the project. other years the madrid bids had a party, in 2012´s bid shakira and the largest flag. In 2016 the "flashmod" with the olympic colours.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yjey4FSfOA