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Where do you see the Olympic movement 50-100 years from now?


Soaring

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Where do you see the Olympic movement 50-100 years from now?

How grand will the spectacle be? Will the cost and size of the Games plateau?

How many new frontiers will become hosts?

Will we start seeing less European dominance?

Will more countries in South America, Asia and Africa be regular hosts?

Do you see a bright future, or cause for concern?

Will the games still matter, and do they really matter today?

I know we've discussed some of these points in snippets on other topics, but I'm just curious on some of your thoughts as a whole...

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Well... I made a list of future hosts one day i had nothing to do... Let me sgare it:

SUMMER

2020 Istanbul

2024 Chicago or Toronto

2028 Tokyo

2032 Durban

2036 Madrid

2040 Doha

2044 Paris

2048 Melbourne

2052 Rome

2056 Guadalajara or Buenos Aires

2060 Berlin

2064 Chicago or Toronto

2068 Delhi

2072 Guadalajara or Buenos Aires

2076 Sanit Petersburg

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Overall, they've gotten about as big as they have. I mean 204/5 countries, 10,500 athletes - 9-10 years to shoot for. Life today is too short and fast for anything BIGGER and requiring more. They really have to start limiting the teams in the Opening March to NO MORE than 50. It just grinds on interminably.

The Winters could grow a little more (maybe up to 4,000 athletes) and 3 more sports --but past that, you're really NOT going to have too many winter cities that can meet those increased needs PLUS the specific topographic demands.

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WINTER:

2022 Munich

2026 (somewhere in Norway)

2030 Almaty

2034 Reno or Quebec (it depends on 2024)

2038 Santiago

2042 Harbin

2046 Öserstund

2050 Reno or Quebec

2054 Salzburg

2058 Zaragoza

Well, it will be garder to organize Winter Games due to global warming... But I hope Latin American countries can be showing a better level in sports! :D and winning more medals

*harder

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OK, I didn't mean for this to turn into a thread for people to compile lists of potential hosts, I more or less intended for it to be a topic of discussion on how the games will look and operate 50-100 years from now.

There are multiple threads about who you think will host, please post that info there.

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Sorry! Hahaha anyways... As i told... Countries like Colombia or Brazil will be stronger and have a greater power in the medals! Amd I dont think the will be "too spectacular" in fact i think they will be more realistic games, like London... And ceremonies will be more spectacular!

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What I see happening in that time period...

- Asia will have a greater presence - more Asian IOC members around the table and in leadership roles, more Asian cities hosting the Games, more Asian athletes standing on the podium, more Asian companies sponsoring the Games.

- Africa will host an Olympiad.

- The Summer Games will likely not grow much more than their existing format. There are limits to what is sustainable and watchable.

- Some sports will die, others will take their place.

- Social media and the Olympics will have a torrid love affair. Both are well suited for each other.

- We will start to see more repeat hosts - the third Paris Games, the fourth or fifth London Games, the second or third Tokyo, Berlin or Rome Games? Likely! But the demands of the games will ensure the continuation of the trend that only the big players will win the Games.

- The above will be especially true for the Winter Games as the list of viable candidates is smaller. Expect to see the Olympic flame rise again in Salt Lake, Calgary, Sapporo, Vancouver, Oslo and Torino.

- There will be more sponsors tied into the Games. The scattering of the media means that this will be one of the few events that are global and attract such intense focus.

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Interesting topic, Soaring.

I think we'll see more repeat hosts. I think the appeal of the Games will gradually diminish as world records become increasingly difficult to top. I think that in 50 and especially 100 years that interest will have declined significantly and that the Games will be much smaller in scale. Economic realities will dictate the change.

That's my guess.

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olympic games will be the biggest sport market and the rings will still be the most known logo in the world ever.

IOC will start to discover new frontiers that never been before. the power of EU and D8 ones will loose again emerging markets. Africa will finally host the games. the medal table will change in near future. Brazil Turkey SA and Turkic countries with mexico will begin to win more medals, China will be the new table leader and russia again start to force USA in many terms.

it wouldnt be a suprise if the cities goes like this...

2020 Istanbul

2022 Munich

2024 Madrid

2026 Reno

2030 Tokyo

2032 Almaty

2034 cape Town

2036 Scandinavia or NUUK ( god knows i want a winter games in siberia, greenland and antartica :S )

2038 NYC

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Yeah, really good topic Soaring.

Of course, it depends so much on how the world changes, and that's almost impossible to forecast. The year I was born, for example, was the year of the Cuban Missile Crisis - it was still more akin in many ways to the world of the 1930s than the world of today.

Still, the games have proved pretty resilient - and remarkably stable really for the past 50 years or so. Bigger, more lavish these days, less "innocent" perhaps since Helsinki and Melbourne, but a lot's the same in the fundamentals.

Spectacle and appeal-wise, I don't see too much threat to their prestige. We're in a world now that doesn't any more have many of the great traditions and pomp and circumstance and ceremonials of the old aristocratic age. The odd royal wedding or national bi-or-tricentennial nothwithstanding, the Olympics have sorta filled their place and taken over as the modern world's great theatre of ceremony and tradition, one that everyone get's to share in and celebrate and aspire to. Not sure how developing media and technology might impact that, but I'll be optimistic there and say that it may just continue to enhance and broaden the experience.

When it comes to sports, it was an interesting point from Athensfan about the world records. Yeah, logically, it would seem that you can only go so far in stretching the capabilities of human ability. Surely the curve eventually just straightlines. Still, I assume there's always going to be intensified efforts to improve and refine medical and training and equipment technologies, and advances in design of facilities and such, that will allow the limits to be stretched tighter and tighter. The sports world will probably have to eventually face, and compromise, on what is fair enhancements or not. It's hard enough to tackle and hold the wall against doping - the lines are going to get even more blurred when you start thinking about genetic enhancements and other esoteric technologies. But, like they've had to do once before when they were finally forced to relinquish their adherence to "amateurism", the IOC and sports in general will find a way to come to terms with what develops.

And advances in timing and measuring equipment will also lead sports bodies to further refine judgements down beyond even thousandths or ten thousandths of a second and such. The margins of records will be ever tinier, but claimable never the less. Anyway there'll also be scoring records, winning and losing streaks and the like to hype. And someone will eventually equal, then better, the Phelps number of medals record. And nations will always wave the flag for their national heros.

I'm sure we'll see the most evolution and tweaking in the sports roster - but it's always changed, with some sports fading but many more joining, since they first started in 1896. It seems, though, that they really have no choice now (except in the Winter Bames) but to only add sports when others are dropped, and I think they'll stick to that policy now. The IOC will probably pay more attention to evolving sports tastes and popularity. But they'll, as ever, balance that freshness with a lot of tradition as well.

Hosting-wise, which is probably of the biggest interest here, a mix of the old and new. Yeah, those "new frontiers" will slowly get ticked off - we'll eventually see an African, a Middle Eastern and an Indian games before the century's out. Eventually there'll be a lot more hair-splitting about what is a new frontier - if there's a GamesBids in 2111, they (or maybe it'll still be us, on extended life support) will be arguing over when they'll finally go to South-East Asia, West Africa, the Caribbean or whatever, and bid committees will still manage to find spot on maps without rings on them. But there's only so many "new frontiers" to go to, so inevitably a lot of old hosts - the Paris', Berlins and Tokyos - will get their moment again. And there's still a lot of viable new locations from past host countries to go through too - the Torontos, Shanghais, Madrids, St Petersburgs ... and Tulsas. There'll be a mix of old faces, variety and exotic locales. And new metropolises will rise in importance and prestige to join the list of hopefuls and potentials to keep things going.

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:mellow: Good points Rols,

I can't see the Games getting any bigger than they are now...In fact I can see them trimming events due to cost constraints ie Equestrian and Yachting. Customisation to popularity will be a must but the IOC needs to be carefull here, adding the 'Extreme Entertainment' sports may be thrilling but to many, a little off-putting. Team Sports with a larger global footprint should be allowed to stay. The IOC seems bent on the all trendy 'sustainability' but still expects lavish facilities. They need to address benefits to cost ratios alot tighter.

Future frontiers should see Africa (soon) and Middle East/India (within 50 years) tick off the last major continental hosting boxes. After that it will be all about multiple hostings peppered with the occasional fresh face such as Houston, Madrid, St Petersburg etc...

Winter Games seem to have a narrower spec due to costs and lack of global reach. The Europe/Asia/N America circut will remain unbroken for the foreseable future unless the IOC allows a surprise...(however unlikely that would be).

For the Youth versions of the games, I really can't see a future for them in the greater events as Athletes are getting younger - they will pretty much remain within the likes of FIFA's minor world cup events.

Good discussion Soaring. :)

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To keep up with the increasing sense of urgency that date-setting has caused, I would ask the IOC to institute a shortened schedule, where the Winter Games occur every two years, and the Summer Games occur every three years. This would allow the public to form a bond or familiarity with their team. Bring the games to a sleepy city like Fort Lauderdale or Gnome, Alaska and I promise the Olympics will be on in every home, such as it was in beautiful Barcelona.

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Bring the games to a sleepy city like Fort Lauderdale or Gnome, Alaska and I promise the Olympics will be on in every home, such as it was in beautiful Barcelona.

U're kidding, rite? :blink: The ridicule over the implausibilities of Tulsa, Minneapolis and Vegas have hardly died down, and you bring up two more improbable locales. Get real, wilya.

Your "shortened" schedule ain't gonna happen. (1) the IOC Charter dictates the time period; (2) the NOCs are all busy enough as it is with the SOGs, the WOGs, the YOGs, the World Championships, etc. (3) the sponsors are already stretched out pretty thin, too.

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I'd like tosee, in my lifetime, a Canadian city host the summer games. Already experienced two winter games, want to see a summer games.

Toronto !!! :D

I would also like to add Modern Pentathlon will likely face the ax sooner then later.

I also see the winter games getting bigger. (From vancouver to Sochi 12 new events will be added).

Then there is still so many events left like dual moguls, shorter distances in long track/short track/biathlon/cross country (to attract the younger crowd).

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I see the "GM" effect to big, some sports becoming out dated, the general world audience just watching something else in this 500 channel television world.

Jeez, for an "Olympiks-fan" you don't seem to like the Olympics - or any major sports event bar soccer - very much!

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I have been to many Olympic and non Olympic cities. I have interview those on the street and those who live on the streets and many government officials. If you still think that the Olympics are about "friendship and peace" then walk in parts that tourists don't see in Olympic cities. Again look at the world from the view of 360 degrees. If I am negative so be it,but their is one thing that I can put down is that I'm being realistic.

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I think the olympic movement will change a lot and get more friendlly after the games games went to the middle east and africa... And by 2040 there will be 32 olympic sports...

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In my view, certain things will always be the same with the Olympics, but my guess is the following will occur over the next 100 years…

The sports and sheer size of the Games will plateau, if not decline slightly.

The winter games will continue to grow more, but eventually plateau in size as well.

Africa, the Middle East, SE Asia and another South American country will host the summer games in the next 60 years.

The IOC will see at least two women hold the presidency.

IOC membership will increase in size to at least 130 members.

Technology will continue to be become more integral in delivering the Games, and engaging the youth of the world.

Drug testing will become even more seamless, and thorough, but controversy will arise with genetically modified humans participating.

We will see the first actual carbon neutral games.

There will be a few (WTF?) cities that land the Games (ala Atlanta ’96). Cities we can’t even fathom hosting today, some that most people may not have even heard of before.

China will host at least two Summer Games and two Winter Games.

We will see repeat hosts Rome, Paris, Tokyo, LA, Berlin, probably even London again.

Brazil will host another Summer Games.

“The Big Three” North American countries (USA, Canada and Mexico) will host at least one Summer Games.

The US will decline in medals, and prominence in the Games.

European IOC influence will decrease slightly, but still hold more power than all others.

At least one war (or event) will significantly interrupt participation or the Games all together.

Greece will never host another Summer Games again.

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IOC membership will increase in size to at least 130 members.

What would another 15 members do? The Charter stipulates 115 (voting) max. They've fiddled with many sections of the Charter, esp. w/ regards to the Ceremonies but they have respected the "115" ceiling. Those who have passed the age limit and still want to hang on are just named "Honorary Members for Life," but their voting privileges are taken away. Good point since their drivers' licenses should also have been taken away as well. ;)

As European members phase out, they should replace them with other non-Euros.

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What would another 15 members do? The Charter stipulates 115 (voting) max. They've fiddled with many sections of the Charter, esp. w/ regards to the Ceremonies but they have respected the "115" ceiling. Those who have passed the age limit and still want to hang on are just named "Honorary Members for Life," but their voting privileges are taken away. Good point since their drivers' licenses should also have been taken away as well.

I predict that pressure will be exuded since 80+ countries are currently excluded, so in the spirit of acceptance, they might increase the pool. But it's just a guess. Olympic charters can be changed...

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I agree with those who have said there will be more repeat hosts, especially for the Winter Games. If the Winter Games continue to grow, there will be only a handful of countries that are truly capable of hosting. While there should be enough European cities to go around for a while, returning to North America will almost certainly mean returning Salt Lake, Calgary, or Vancouver at some point in the next 50-75 years. There just aren't that many other possibilities in North America, and it's not economically feasible to have so many luge/bobsled tracks and nordic facilities when they get so little use.

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