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Will natural disasters affect 2020 decision?


baron-pierreIV

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With the tsunami in Japan last March; and now the major earthquake in Turkey -- will these events influence the 2020 decision? Will the vote in 2 years in Buenos Aires be affected by these natural phenomena?

Two of the favorites (Tokyo and Istanbul) are in very heavy earthquake-prone zones. Can the IOC risk placing their primary product in these regions (again)? I mean seven years' work could go down the drain in an instant. Or will the IOC play safe and go with Rome or Madrid?

Discuss.

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I don't see how it can affect Turkey's bid since the zone of this recent quake is so far from the bidding city. Things are a much worse for Japan! I mean, open water swimming not that far from the waters of Fukushima is a little too X-Games for my standards.

BTW, as we can't really predict when earthquakes will occur, the IOC can't make an argument against bidding cities out of it. Los Angeles hosted it twice and nothing happened.

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% 60 of world population living close or on the earthquake zones. ─░nc. Rome, Madrid, Istanbul and Tokyo.

lol funny but the only safe continent is Africa which never hosted the games before .. Ironic <_<

the safety of the athletes and media and visitors is very important, but im sure its not a must ( not being in an earthquake zone) criteria of IOC. ( LA Tokyo Athens Mexico ..etc )

on the other hand the countries facing this disaster always well prepared than the others. we saw what happened to Spain and USA with 5. richter strong earthquakes afew months ago. its just some adrenalin for us and others. i rather wanna be in tokyo facing an 7 rather than a 5,5 in paris or berlin or madrid NYC...:S

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BTW, as we can't really predict when earthquakes will occur, the IOC can't make an argument against bidding cities out of it. Los Angeles hosted it twice and nothing happened.

Of course, u can never predict when or where it will happen...but there are regions of the earth where they HAPPEN MORE FREQUENTLY...the Pacific Ring of Fire being one of them and the eastern end of the Mediterranean being the other. There was NO CHOICE for LA in either 1932 or 1984. Nobody else wanted those years-- so it wasn't like the IOC had a luxury of choice. And it's completely stupid and naive to IGNORE the statistics in areas like Istanbul and Tokyo.

I DON'T expect that the august and learned members of the IOC are ignorant, naive people??

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May be a tiny factor, but natural disasters happen all the time and can't be predicted 7 years out. Nearly every city that has hosted the Winter Olympics is in a seismically active region. And nearly every city and/or country that has hosted the Olympics has faced a disaster (natural and man-made) at some point in its history. Doesn't the IOC also have some sort of event insurance?

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Well, although you can't predict earthquakes, they have some frequency. An earthquake like the one in Japan this year happens around every 100 years; the one in Turkey every 50 years. So I think that zones are pretty much "earthquake-free" in the following years. I would be much worried about places where earthquakes are uncommon (every 1,000-2,000 years for example, so you don't know when the next one will happen) and don't have infraestructure ready for them like Northern Europe or the East Coast.

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No. There will be no negative effect. Somebody may squeeze out some sympathy, but the IOC isn't going to be scared away. Unforseeable disasters can happen anywhere any time. There's no point in being afraid of them.

Too add, doesn't the IOC have some agreement with host cities that says if needed they could be asked to host the next games? Or am I completely wrong?

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Too add, doesn't the IOC have some agreement with host cities that says if needed they could be asked to host the next games? Or am I completely wrong?

First I've heard of that. I doubt it, considering a lot of hosts immediately start reconfiguring venues, selling off the Olympic village units etc straight after the games.

Sydney publicly said "no way" when there was discussion about the issue in the lead-up to 2004 with Athens' tardy preparations.

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From the discussions we've had over the issue of "back-up" hosts over the years, it seems the biggest hurdle is Olympic villages. It seems US cities, with the college dorm system, are best placed as potential back-ups.

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Life is about taking risks, or does people in California, Italy, Turkey, Guatemala, Mexico, etc... are always afraid of having natural disaters? I live near an active volcano (Santiaguito) and it doesnt. makes us stop our normal activities. Its just being prepeared but optimisist ;)

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Life is about taking risks, or does people in California, Italy, Turkey, Guatemala, Mexico, etc... are always afraid of having natural disaters? I live near an active volcano (Santiaguito) and it doesnt. makes us stop our normal activities. Its just being prepeared but optimisist ;)

Oh yeah, a billion-dollar venture that takes about 10 years to put together and; all things being considered, you're going to go to the riskier cities when there ARE SAFER ones?? I'm NOT saying it should be the major factor...but given a choice of Baku, Doha, Istanbul, Madrid, Rome and Tokyo, I would go with Rome or Madrid only because of the risks with Tokyo or Istanbul.

Well, although you can't predict earthquakes, they have some frequency. An earthquake like the one in Japan this year happens around every 100 years; the one in Turkey every 50 years.

There was a tsunami in the South China sea in December 2004. Major Kobe earthquake in 1995. Fukushima this March. How can those be every 100 years in Japan? Do you really think the earth looks at its watch and says...oh, 50 or 100 years is coming up, time to shake? :blink:<_<

And 23 stadia can be repaired and certified safe in 3 weeks time? :rolleyes:

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The 2004 tsunami was in the Indian Ocean, not the South China Sea and no where near Japan.

While Japan does get frequent earthquakes (like California, Chile, and New Zealand), they don't devastate the entire country. They are localized. Kobe is 700 kms away from Sendai - the '95 and '11 quakes didn't impact the other city.

I think it would only have an impact if a major natural disaster struck around the day of the vote. And even then, who knows...it might even earn sympathy votes!

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Play safe and go with rome or madrid.

There both having economic problems so i wouldnt call them a "safe" pick. which then leaves doha or baku which i am a fan of but many people dont like them for corruption risks and heat.

So i have no idea what is safe and all the risks, then who will pull out and who wont.

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Weel maybe the "safest" choice in these sense its Madrid... Rome has earthquakes to :P hahaha! Anyway i dont think it will be a mayor factor... At least in 2020... By 2032 it will be REALLY important

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No bearing, unless a major quake decimated a city a week before the vote, but it would truly have to be epic, like the San Fran quake in 1904. In that scenario, serious questions would be raised about the city's ability to be ready for the Games while they rebuild their city.

Tokyo and Istanbul weren't affected that much by the disasters, so it's not an issue.

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Yeah, I agree. Unless its a major quake with an epicentre close to the host city in the immediate months leading up to the games, I can't see it would have too much impact or cause the games not to go ahead. And I really don't think it factors into the IOC decision, otherwise we'd never have seen LA or Tokyo host. You just gotta trust in luck - sh!t happens, but not constantly.

I think the bigger threats to the games would be a major worldwide war (hopefully we'll never have to experience that) or terrorism.

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Oh yeah, a billion-dollar venture that takes about 10 years to put together and; all things being considered, you're going to go to the riskier cities when there ARE SAFER ones?? I'm NOT saying it should be the major factor...but given a choice of Baku, Doha, Istanbul, Madrid, Rome and Tokyo, I would go with Rome or Madrid only because of the risks with Tokyo or Istanbul.

Well Rome isnt too safe... If ypu want SAFE then Madrid is the only choice

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Well Rome isnt too safe... If ypu want SAFE then Madrid is the only choice

Yeah, Madrid is the only safe choice...

train.jpg

11 March 2004

Every host/bidder has risks. What happened in Norway just goes to show that bad things can happen in even the most unexpected places.

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I was just responding to a statement about Madrid being the only safe choice, so I just thought instantly of the Madrid train bombings. I don't think it was really going far off topic as you suggest.

Now if I said... Madrid doesn't have a good club scene, then yeah, that's off on a tangent.

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Well, again. If the topic is about "natural" disasters, & then you decide to come in here & take it out of context simply because someone else said the word "safe", that's still deviating from the main topic. Since that would be a whole other thread altogether. But whatever.

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Well, again. If the topic is about "natural" disasters, & then you decide to come in here & take it out of context simply because someone else said the word "safe", that's still deviating from the main topic. Since that would be a whole other thread altogether. But whatever.

EXACTLY. I was only talking about what's considered 'an act of God' of force majeure in insurance and contract vernacular...NOT man-made occurrences. Oh Soaring, :rolleyes:

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