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2020 Evaluation


Olympic Fan Darcy

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I would agree with this. But I take it more as Summer to Summer or Winter to Winter having more of an impact than Winter/Summer or Summer/Winter. And considering other than ambiguous Istanbul being in the mix, the only other Euro contender for Rome is Madrid. And IMO, I think Barcelona (Summer) hinders Madrid (again Summer) moreso than Turin (Winter) would impede a Rome (Summer) bid.

Well - in a way it is quite a complex issue:

I think "Barcelona 1992" has an impact on a Spanish Summer Bid as long as e.g. France, Italy, Germany or Russia haven't hosted a Summer Games after 1992 - that would be completely different for a Spanish Winter Games bid...

For me "Torino 2006" was a kind of substitute for a "Rome 2004" therewith the fact that Italy has already hosted in the new century it has an impact on Summer Bids as long as e.g. France, Germany or Turkey have hosted - by the way when Italy and Russia bid for the same Summer Games both countries would be on the same level (concerning the internal European rotation), due Torino 2006 and Sochi 2014

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Well if we look closely

Madrid may be seen as too close too 1992 barcelona

rome may be seen as close cause of torino

tokyo possibly because pyeongchang

which leaves doha (small population, no prior bidding expirience) baku, (same sort of thing as doha) and istanbul (large population, lots of prior bidding expirience)

Although istanbul wont top most of the evaluations they do have alot of expirience and Rio didnt top the evaluations aswell nd they were succesful.

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I do think this race will be interesting since we don't have a clear front-runner or a couple of favourites at the beggining...

Still, I do think Rome, Madrid and Istanbul have a step ahead of Tokyo...

Doha and Baku are the black horses. :)

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Finance lowest - Baku??? That is ridiculous. I consider Baku second highest after Doha in sense of financial terms. In general I see that Baku is quite underrated here.

I do not want to talk much in favour of Baku now but again in case Baku does it well with accomodation, venue and safety condiditons for ESC 2012 in May, 2012 there is no doubt that BAKU 2020 will be as realistic as the rest 6 bids.

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Finance lowest - Baku??? That is ridiculous. I consider Baku second highest after Doha in sense of financial terms. In general I see that Baku is quite underrated here.

I do not want to talk much in favour of Baku now but again in case Baku does it well with accomodation, venue and safety condiditons for ESC 2012 in May, 2012 there is no doubt that BAKU 2020 will be as realistic as the rest 6 bids.

Maybe underrated in some categories, but not much past history bids (same as doha) also hasnt really hosted many major sporting events.

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The gap between Nagano and 2020 is 22 years, plus generally Asia is underrepresented because their are really only 3 countries that can host. China had 2008, South Korea has 2018, that means that Japan is up next for Asia.

Tokyo's biggest problems are PC and their lack of IOC representation.

The gap between Torino and 2020 is just 14 years. Europe has plenty of able hosts awaiting their opportunity. The Torino Games were not particularly memorable either. However, Italy is well represented in the IOC.

As for Baku, their problem probably won't be money -- it's going to be political power. I question whether Russia's support will make enough of a difference to allow them to factor into this race.

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The gap between Nagano and 2020 is 22 years, plus generally Asia is underrepresented because their are really only 3 countries that can host. China had 2008, South Korea has 2018, that means that Japan is up next for Asia.

Tokyo's biggest problems are PC and their lack of IOC representation.

The gap between Torino and 2020 is just 14 years. Europe has plenty of able hosts awaiting their opportunity. The Torino Games were not particularly memorable either. However, Italy is well represented in the IOC.

As for Baku, their problem probably won't be money -- it's going to be political power. I question whether Russia's support will make enough of a difference to allow them to factor into this race.

Interesting, so in your opinion you say it should be tokyo who win it and rome not?

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My Analysis

Rome

Pro - It has hosted the games before. It mostly needs to upgrade a few venues.

Con - The major financial crisis in Italy.

Analysis - if the Games were awarded now it would be in a horrible spot, however with 2 years till the vote Italy has a bit of time to fix it's economy and thus cement it's Status as the one to beat.

Madrid

Pro - It's the Summer Game eternal Bridesmaid. It would be the most looked at bid seeing it has been so close to winning in the past which is a great thing.

Con - Economy. Like Italy, Spain is facing some trying times. There issues may actually be worse than Italy's.

Analysis - Madrid is sitting pretty with the possibility that the IOC might award the games to them based on tenacity alone but for some reason they lack the sex appeal other cities have and they will need to fix that by the time 2013 come for the decision.

Istanbul

Pro - With 5 previous bid attempts it actually is more of a bridesmaid than Madrid, it's in a region unique enough to be known as a new frontier as well as being close to the tried and tested grounds of Europe and it seems to be economically stable for the time being.

Con - As of right now I can't see major Con besides the fact that it is a major player in the middle east and thus could be a target but then again every games is subject to regional politics.

Analysis - It wasn't until I started writing this that I realized how strong of a possibility Istanbul. It provides both the sexiness of a new frontier as well as the stability the IOC craves and throw in it's own persistence in bidding and you get a strong contender.

Tokyo

Pro - It hosted it before.

Con - Not the most intriguing candidate. Sad to say this but Tokyo seems to just be an after thought when you compare it to the other cities in this group.

Analysis - The WOW factor is missing here. To me Tokyo could only win if the other candidates were cities that were completely not ready to host the games and you want something that is just a safe bet in order to give those other cities time to improve but in a field like this Tokyo's safeness just won't cut it.

Doha

Pro - Money Money Money - Let's be honest we would love to se another grand spectacle like Beijing.

Con - Fifa corruption scandal, volatile Middle East, major lack of an international sporting tradition and even though the IOC said they would allow it, the time of the games will still be an issue.

Analysis - Money goes along way with the IOC but the Ioc would not blatantly walk into the scandalous fiasco that was the 2022 World Cup biding process. So though I do think it is a strong enough contender I think it will come down to if the IOC members will forget the scandal.

Baku

Pro - New Frontier

Con - Simple. The competition.

Analysis - Baku is simply going up against stronger candidates.

So I guess if I had to chose a winner Now I would go with ISTANBUL but we will have to see what the next 2 years shows us.

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Good analysis, /\/\/\/\/\. Many conditions not in play in previous races are now factors.

Rome, Madrid and Tokyo might just cancel each other out--and Istanbul could emerge as the compromise winner, esp if Turkey's economy keeps a steady course thru the vote in 2013.

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"dark" horses, Danny, is the proper figure of speech in English. But the classic children's story is "Black Beauty." ;)

Google translate is not the same anymore... :(

Indeed, in Portuguese the word is "azarão" (big bad lucky guy) or zebra (the animal).

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My Analysis

Rome

Pro - It has hosted the games before. It mostly needs to upgrade a few venues.

Con - The major financial crisis in Italy.

Analysis - if the Games were awarded now it would be in a horrible spot, however with 2 years till the vote Italy has a bit of time to fix it's economy and thus cement it's Status as the one to beat.

Madrid

Pro - It's the Summer Game eternal Bridesmaid. It would be the most looked at bid seeing it has been so close to winning in the past which is a great thing.

Con - Economy. Like Italy, Spain is facing some trying times. There issues may actually be worse than Italy's.

Analysis - Madrid is sitting pretty with the possibility that the IOC might award the games to them based on tenacity alone but for some reason they lack the sex appeal other cities have and they will need to fix that by the time 2013 come for the decision.

Istanbul

Pro - With 5 previous bid attempts it actually is more of a bridesmaid than Madrid, it's in a region unique enough to be known as a new frontier as well as being close to the tried and tested grounds of Europe and it seems to be economically stable for the time being.

Con - As of right now I can't see major Con besides the fact that it is a major player in the middle east and thus could be a target but then again every games is subject to regional politics.

Analysis - It wasn't until I started writing this that I realized how strong of a possibility Istanbul. It provides both the sexiness of a new frontier as well as the stability the IOC craves and throw in it's own persistence in bidding and you get a strong contender.

Tokyo

Pro - It hosted it before.

Con - Not the most intriguing candidate. Sad to say this but Tokyo seems to just be an after thought when you compare it to the other cities in this group.

Analysis - The WOW factor is missing here. To me Tokyo could only win if the other candidates were cities that were completely not ready to host the games and you want something that is just a safe bet in order to give those other cities time to improve but in a field like this Tokyo's safeness just won't cut it.

Doha

Pro - Money Money Money - Let's be honest we would love to se another grand spectacle like Beijing.

Con - Fifa corruption scandal, volatile Middle East, major lack of an international sporting tradition and even though the IOC said they would allow it, the time of the games will still be an issue.

Analysis - Money goes along way with the IOC but the Ioc would not blatantly walk into the scandalous fiasco that was the 2022 World Cup biding process. So though I do think it is a strong enough contender I think it will come down to if the IOC members will forget the scandal.

Baku

Pro - New Frontier

Con - Simple. The competition.

Analysis - Baku is simply going up against stronger candidates.

So I guess if I had to chose a winner Now I would go with ISTANBUL but we will have to see what the next 2 years shows us.

Definitly agree with you there!

Im unsure of Rome and Madrid, im sure Italy will go under so i dont know if they can fix themselves by 2013, madrid also a tough one. the others i agree. istanbul i agree is my favourite, prior bidding, hosted other events, never hosted. only cons i can think is middle east and the earthquakes

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Interesting, so in your opinion you say it should be tokyo who win it and rome not?

I don't know about "should" but that's my best guess as of today.

I think that Istanbul's sprawling layout, spread out venue plan, lack of infrastructureand lack of experience with major events will come back to haunt them. Istanbul can't point to a PanAm games like Rio could. As it becomes increasingly clear that Rio won't deliver on all their infrastructure promises (particularly in the area of transportation), I think this will make the IOC question Istanbul as well.

My feeling is that the IOC is going to want a stable option. The economy's going to get worse before it gets better. If I had to guess, I'd say it's Tokyo and Madrid in the final with Tokyo getting the win.

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I don't know about "should" but that's my best guess as of today.

I think that Istanbul's sprawling layout, spread out venue plan, lack of infrastructureand lack of experience with major events will come back to haunt them. Istanbul can't point to a PanAm games like Rio could. As it becomes increasingly clear that Rio won't deliver on all their infrastructure promises (particularly in the area of transportation), I think this will make the IOC question Istanbul as well.

My feeling is that the IOC is going to want a stable option. The economy's going to get worse before it gets better. If I had to guess, I'd say it's Tokyo and Madrid in the final with Tokyo getting the win.

Spain is also not stable

My opinion Istanbul Tokyo final round Tokyo win

I hope its Istanbul though

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Spain is also not stable

My opinion Istanbul Tokyo final round Tokyo win

I hope its Istanbul though

Well, we could also see Turkey's economy start to stumble by 2013.

I think it'll all come down to how the world situation stacks up come the summer of 2013 (the vote is in September I believe), how effective the campaigns are, and how things will be looking toward the end of the decade.

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Well, we could also see Turkey's economy start to stumble by 2013.

I think it'll all come down to how the world situation stacks up come the summer of 2013 (the vote is in September I believe), how effective the campaigns are, and how things will be looking toward the end of the decade.

the statistics are better thn we r expecting for 2011. the economy will grow st like %8-9 this year and expecting %6 for 2012.. the problem EU and Usa faced and facing is banking system and turkey already remade and clear the problems in this area at 2001 crisis. exports rises about % 10 this year and treasury hits for 100 billion usd nearly.we r not living in a bed of roses but the economists dont see a crisis that hits turkey for near future.

but,if the crises in eu will spread like all countries turkey will affected from that too.

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Well, we could also see Turkey's economy start to stumble by 2013.

I think it'll all come down to how the world situation stacks up come the summer of 2013 (the vote is in September I believe), how effective the campaigns are, and how things will be looking toward the end of the decade.

I understand that

But there is no super clear indication that istanbul is in trouble

we know spain and italy are

but they might fall but then again anyone could...

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For some reason (pure gut feeling) I expect Spain to do a better job than Rome of convincing the IOC to overlook their financial issues. I think their third consecutive bid will win considerable respect and sympathy and I do expect to see them in the final. For a while I thought they might even win, but now I think Tokyo provides the safest available harbor. It's funny-- had the US bid they might have actually had a shot....

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It's funny-- had the US bid they might have actually had a shot....
You are so right Athensfan.

All signs were pointing to USA 2020 no doubt about it. London 2012 weaken Europe's chances. Rio weakening the New Frontier argument and South Africa not even bidding not to mention the Fifa slap in the face. I know hindsight is 20/20, pun intended, but this economic downturn for europe would have all but sealed it for the USA 2020. Lets face it the competition is going to be might stiff for 2024 with South Africa planning to all but walk away with it.

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