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Athensfan
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What you are describing is an optimistic, best-case-scenario.

Of course SA is not to blame for Rio's problems. But Rio staged successful PanAms that offered no hint of the Olympic dilemmas to come. SA has never staged CWG's. Brazil's economy is far larger than SA's and yet they are having financial issues with their preparations. Why should the IOC assume that SA would be smooth sailing?

I think it would be a huge mistake to believe that SA is the best judge of their own preparedness. They may think they are ready, but they have never hosted an international multi-sport competition of any kind, much less Olympics. No matter how intelligent and well-researched they are, they can't possibly really understand the task ahead of them. That's why it's essential that the IOC examine them very closely.

Rio will be fresh in the IOC's minds when they vote for 2024. Tokyo will not have happened yet. I think the big question is how much work the IOC will have had to do to bail Rio out. If they are all exhausted from helping Rio pull off the Games by the skin of their teeth (no matter how exceptional the Games turn out to be), it's hard for me to imagine them signing up for the same process with SA. The ends do not justify the means. Even if the final product in Rio is successful, if the IOC has to go through hell to pull it off, they'll be wary of repeating that process anytime soon. Personally, I think the IOC should EXPECT an unprecedented level of involvement in the delivery of the first African Olympics. That isn't wrong, it's just practical.

I can imagine the members saying, "Yes, we're dying to go to Africa, but we need a bit of a breather. Tokyo is great, but the 2024 planning will begin before Tokyo happens. We're having issues with Winter Games too. Our image is in the toilet because we look like a bunch of out of touch big spenders. Africa would not only be exhausting, it could be tricky from a PR point of view. We need something safe that will give us a chance to catch our breath and help create a paradigm for lower cost, more sustainable Olympics."

I don't see how Tokyo & a future U.S. Games could "help create a paradigm for lower-cost, more sustainable Games" if that's the argument you wanna use. Los Angeles, Dallas & San Diego are all taking about Games in the amount of at least 10-17 Billion. And we should know by now, those figures always balloon, especially by 2024 Olympic dollars.

I'm not describing anything more optimistic than you are for the possibility of another U.S. Summer Games. No Olympic Games are smooth sailing, really. So why should South Africa be any different in that aspect. While the Pan Ams did provide a boost for Rio, I don't think that's neither here nor there at this point.

Yeah, Brazil's economy is larger, but again, they bit off more than they can chew by hosting two mega, sporting-events just two years apart (they also chose to add more stadiums to their 2014 roster when FIFA advised that fewer would suffice). It was an issue of concern during the 2016 campaign, & it looks like those concerns weren't that much off the mark. The Pan Ams have nothing to do with anything at this point, regardless how they turned out. If Brazil just went after the Olympics, we wouldn't be really seeing many of these issues, not to this great extent anyway. Perhaps just your usual "oh, they're running a bit behind on this or that" stuff like most host cities in their lead-up time.

I don't think that hosting the CWG's first is a make or break deal, either. It's not like those games are particularly cheap or that much less logistical to operate. But nonetheless, perhaps that's why they're going after those first. I don't think, however, that they're being so foolhardy about this & don't have a clue whatsoever as to what they could be asking for. There's gotta be some level of pragmatism & sense on their part. I find this quite surprising coming from you actually, since not too long ago you were saying that it'd be foolish for the U.S. to bid again if South Africa were in the picture. Yeah, you could say its rios troubles that have made you change your course. But I don't think its that all cut-&-dry as some are making their troubles out to be.

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I can see Los Angeles making it into the Candidate City Phase, but getting eliminated in the First Round of Voting. The reasons for that I believe this is:

Rome, Italy: The City last Hosted the 1960 Summer Olympics (64 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 2006 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Turin (18 Years ago by 2024).

Berlin: The City last Hosted the 1936 Summer Olympics (88 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich (52 Years ago by 2024).

Paris: The City last Hosted the 1924 Summer Olympics (100 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 1992 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Albertville.

Durban: The City has never Hosted an Olympic Games. Country has never Hosted an Olympic Games.

Los Angeles: The City last Hosted the 1984 Summer Olympics (40 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 2002 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Salt Lake (22 Years ago by 2024).

So I think the odds are against America, seeing as though it's been longer since Rome, Berlin, Paris and Durban (Who has never Hosted) has Hosted.

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I can see Los Angeles making it into the Candidate City Phase, but getting eliminated in the First Round of Voting. The reasons for that I believe this is:

Rome, Italy: The City last Hosted the 1960 Summer Olympics (64 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 2006 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Turin (18 Years ago by 2024).

Berlin: The City last Hosted the 1936 Summer Olympics (88 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich (52 Years ago by 2024).

Paris: The City last Hosted the 1924 Summer Olympics (100 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 1992 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Albertville.

Durban: The City has never Hosted an Olympic Games. Country has never Hosted an Olympic Games.

Los Angeles: The City last Hosted the 1984 Summer Olympics (40 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 2002 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Salt Lake (22 Years ago by 2024).

So I think the odds are against America, seeing as though it's been longer since Rome, Berlin, Paris and Durban (Who has never Hosted) has Hosted.

We know your prediction Tony, you say it every day.
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I can see Los Angeles making it into the Candidate City Phase, but getting eliminated in the First Round of Voting. The reasons for that I believe this is:

Rome, Italy: The City last Hosted the 1960 Summer Olympics (64 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 2006 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Turin (18 Years ago by 2024).

Berlin: The City last Hosted the 1936 Summer Olympics (88 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich (52 Years ago by 2024).

Paris: The City last Hosted the 1924 Summer Olympics (100 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 1992 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Albertville.

Durban: The City has never Hosted an Olympic Games. Country has never Hosted an Olympic Games.

Los Angeles: The City last Hosted the 1984 Summer Olympics (40 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 2002 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Salt Lake (22 Years ago by 2024).

So I think the odds are against America, seeing as though it's been longer since Rome, Berlin, Paris and Durban (Who has never Hosted) has Hosted.

Congrats - you can analyse tables on the Wikipedia page 'Olympic Games' and you have demonstrated basic addition and subtraction.

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@FYI

The purpose of my post was not to advance an American bid. I absolutely think the US can repackage the Games in a way that is lower cost and more sustainable than the likes of Athens, Beijing, Sochi, Tokyo and even London. I'm not saying they'll be cheap, but they can be much better.

I don't see Tokyo doing anything at all to combat gigantism and never said otherwise.

It is highly optimistic to think

A.) Rio will come off without a hitch.

B.) The IOC is going to be eager to jump into another partnership that will likely require extensive additional oversight and hand-holding.

C.) South Africa is the most reliable judge of their own ability to stage successful Games.

D.) South Africa does not need and would not benefit from hosting an international multi-sport event (such as CWG) prior to hosting Olympic Games.

By contrast, questions about an American bid center exclusively on geopolitics and electability. I have no idea how that scene will play out. I think it's possible the US can win 2024, but there are others who can pose serious challenges. I hardly think that qualifies as an overly optimistic outlook.

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I can see Los Angeles making it into the Candidate City Phase, but getting eliminated in the First Round of Voting. The reasons for that I believe this is:

Rome, Italy: The City last Hosted the 1960 Summer Olympics (64 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 2006 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Turin (18 Years ago by 2024).

Berlin: The City last Hosted the 1936 Summer Olympics (88 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich (52 Years ago by 2024).

Paris: The City last Hosted the 1924 Summer Olympics (100 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 1992 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Albertville.

Durban: The City has never Hosted an Olympic Games. Country has never Hosted an Olympic Games.

Los Angeles: The City last Hosted the 1984 Summer Olympics (40 Years ago by 2024). Country last Hosted the 2002 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Salt Lake (22 Years ago by 2024).

So I think the odds are against America, seeing as though it's been longer since Rome, Berlin, Paris and Durban (Who has never Hosted) has Hosted.

But again, based on your orderings from 2024-2036, you will still have shut North America by 40 years, while you think it's fine and dandy that Europe is hosting every other Olympics 28 years after London. A whole bunch of other factors can play into a bid, not only time. Please change your perspective on how you view things in the world sense. To you, having the Olympics on your continent every other cycle may be wonderful. To us, though, it may be viewed as unfair and repetitive.

When you say "the odds are against America", you also have to change perspective. Is it only against America? Will Durban's bid only degrade America? Will it not degrade a bid from Europe, too. A bid from Paris' centennial would also degrade both sides, and a bid from the Americas with an incredible narrative and plan could certainly degrade rivals.

Tony, I have one word for you: Change

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The question for the US (and LA) really is if Paris and/or Durban bid, will the USOC do? I wouldn't if those 2 are running for 2024 or 2028.

LA knows how to cool it. Besides, the USOC has said that if they don't enter a 2024 bid, they will go for a 2026 WOG.

And besides, with the new NBC deal, that means that the IOC can give the US a Summer Games up to 2032 (which would be LA's Centennial).

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Congrats - you can analyse tables on the Wikipedia page 'Olympic Games' and you have demonstrated basic addition and subtraction.

I didn't even visit Wikipedia. I knew this information already. All Olympic Fans should know this.

@FYI

The purpose of my post was not to advance an American bid. I absolutely think the US can repackage the Games in a way that is lower cost and more sustainable than the likes of Athens, Beijing, Sochi, Tokyo and even London. I'm not saying they'll be cheap, but they can be much better.

I don't see Tokyo doing anything at all to combat gigantism and never said otherwise.

It is highly optimistic to think

A.) Rio will come off without a hitch.

B.) The IOC is going to be eager to jump into another partnership that will likely require extensive additional oversight and hand-holding.

C.) South Africa is the most reliable judge of their own ability to stage successful Games.

D.) South Africa does not need and would not benefit from hosting an international multi-sport event (such as CWG) prior to hosting Olympic Games.

By contrast, questions about an American bid center exclusively on geopolitics and electability. I have no idea how that scene will play out. I think it's possible the US can win 2024, but there are others who can pose serious challenges. I hardly think that qualifies as an overly optimistic outlook.

London did set a High Standard for Sustainability.

But again, based on your orderings from 2024-2036, you will still have shut North America by 40 years, while you think it's fine and dandy that Europe is hosting every other Olympics 28 years after London. A whole bunch of other factors can play into a bid, not only time. Please change your perspective on how you view things in the world sense. To you, having the Olympics on your continent every other cycle may be wonderful. To us, though, it may be viewed as unfair and repetitive.

When you say "the odds are against America", you also have to change perspective. Is it only against America? Will Durban's bid only degrade America? Will it not degrade a bid from Europe, too. A bid from Paris' centennial would also degrade both sides, and a bid from the Americas with an incredible narrative and plan could certainly degrade rivals.

Tony, I have one word for you: Change

Change? Because I view it differently to you? That's not how it works. I believe in something, you believe in something different. We disagree, we don't change.

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Besides, the USOC has said that if they don't enter a 2024 bid, they will go for a 2026 WOG.

That is not quite true.

Well over a year ago they said they were contemplating 2024 or 2026. They chose 2024. There has been no public mention of a WOG bid. There is no guarantee that if a 2024 bid is abandoned that they will switch to 2026.

The USOC knows the Summer races are more competitive. They know the IOC is having problems with the WOG. They still want Summer Games (and for good reason in my opinion).

And if the USOC bids for 2024 and loses, it's very unlikely that they would bid for 2026. If they do submit a future Winter bid, there's absolutely no guarantee that it would be for 2026 because there would be no time for a domestic evaluation after the 2024 loss. The turn around time is too tight.

The USOC has been so careful and methodical in taking their time with evaluating the 2024 prospects that I cannot believe they would throw together a 2026 bid in a matter of weeks.

For now, it is clear that the USOC is only contemplating 2024. If they ultimately choose not to bid or if that bid loses, there is no guarantee of when they may bid again. That is not information that has been publicly discussed and I suspect the USOC is not even thinking that way.

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Change? Because I view it differently to you? That's not how it works. I believe in something, you believe in something different. We disagree, we don't change.

Change as in change your prospective -.- Change the way you think before posting. Think how other people from different parts of the world would view the situation. By doing so, you can avoid the hate that you seem to receive way too often. I am not telling you to change your opinion, I am telling you to think more on the global scale. To think of the opinions and feelings the Americans, Australians, Brazilians, and others would have instead of looking like a selfish fool claiming 2024 WILL go to Europe and 2028 WILL go to South Africa and 2036 WILL go to North America.Think how WE would be effected by a European games every other cycle, think how the Olympic movement would change, think how the enthusiasm and sponsors would change. Reread your posts properly to make sure you avoid using the words WILL and UNTIL (unless it has been officially confirmed) and start using I THINK and UNLESS. I know you have used those words before, but people will notice "will" and "until" more than "I think" and "unless", and with your infamous background, people will definitely be all over you for saying that.

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I have an feeling that Rome Italy with Italy new PM against an bid and Paris France want to host the 2025 World Expo will stay out of the race will not bid for the 2024 Summer Games leaving Berlin Germany as the only strong Europe bid by 2024 it will be more then half an century since Germany last hosted an Olympics Games, Germany economy is the strongest in Europe, I think Berlin Germany could sweep in the hosting rights for the 2024 Summer Games they are an strong threat for the USA which hosted 2 Summer Games in the past 40 years and I think they could award the 2024 Summer Games to Berlin Germany and give the 2026 Winter Games to the USA to keep the interest for the Winter Games alive then Toronto Canada for the 2028 Summer Games, Then it will be at least 20 years for the next Summer Games in Europe with either Moscow Russia or Rome Italy getting the games in 2044.

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I have an feeling that Rome Italy with Italy new PM against an bid and Paris France want to host the 2025 World Expo will stay out of the race will not bid for the 2024 Summer Games leaving Berlin Germany as the only strong Europe bid by 2024 it will be more then half an century since Germany last hosted an Olympics Games, Germany economy is the strongest in Europe, I think Berlin Germany could sweep in the hosting rights for the 2024 Summer Games they are an strong threat for the USA which hosted 2 Summer Games in the past 40 years and I think they could award the 2024 Summer Games to Berlin Germany and give the 2026 Winter Games to the USA to keep the interest for the Winter Games alive then Toronto Canada for the 2028 Summer Games, Then it will be at least 20 years for the next Summer Games in Europe with either Moscow Russia or Rome Italy getting the games in 2044.

Seriously? You think there will be a 20 Year Gap in between European Olympic Hosting?

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I have an feeling that Rome Italy with Italy new PM against an bid and Paris France want to host the 2025 World Expo will stay out of the race will not bid for the 2024 Summer Games leaving Berlin Germany as the only strong Europe bid by 2024 it will be more then half an century since Germany last hosted an Olympics Games, Germany economy is the strongest in Europe, I think Berlin Germany could sweep in the hosting rights for the 2024 Summer Games they are an strong threat for the USA which hosted 2 Summer Games in the past 40 years and I think they could award the 2024 Summer Games to Berlin Germany and give the 2026 Winter Games to the USA to keep the interest for the Winter Games alive then Toronto Canada for the 2028 Summer Games, Then it will be at least 20 years for the next Summer Games in Europe with either Moscow Russia or Rome Italy getting the games in 2044.

If the US bids for 2024 and loses, it is highly unlikely they will bid for 2026. There is not enough turn around time to do a careful domestic evaluation.

Plus, if 2022 ends up in Asia (as is looking quite possible), I can easily imagine 2026 in Europe.

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Seriously? You think there will be a 20 Year Gap in between European Olympic Hosting?

But you think there will be a 40 year gap in North American Olympic hosting -_-

I know the Olympics is very Eurocentric, but still: 40 years? What about the other continents, huh?

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But you think there will be a 40 year gap in North American Olympic hosting -_-

I know the Olympics is very Eurocentric, but still: 40 years? What about the other continents, huh?

I've said I believe America will get the 2026 Winter Olympics and Paralympics, with Denver. So, it's not 40 Years. Anyway, how is it fair America got 2 Olympic Games in 6 Years? (Atlanta 1996 and Salt Lake 2002).

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Anyway, how is it fair America got 2 Olympic Games in 6 Years? (Atlanta 1996 and Salt Lake 2002).

It's totally fair. The US offered the best candidates in those cycles and the IOC voted accordingly.

The IOC has to chose the best available option for each cycle. You could argue it would be "unfair" for Asia to host three Olympics in a row, but if that happens, it will be because the IOC felt each of those three hosts were the best options for their respective cycles.

And Tony, consider this: if Asia hosts 2022 (very possible) the WOGs won't have been in Western Europe for a full 20 years, making 2026 high time to go back.

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It's totally fair. The US offered the best candidates in those cycles and the IOC voted accordingly.

The IOC has to chose the best available option for each cycle. You could argue it would be "unfair" for Asia to host three Olympics in a row, but if that happens, it will be because the IOC felt each of those three hosts were the best options for their respective cycles.

It is unfair IMO. Difference is, Asia is a Continent, America is a Country. Also, if it was for example, Atlanta 1996 and Calgary 1998, that's not an issue IMO, but America getting 2 Olympics in 6 Years was unfair. It would be unfair if Oslo or Krakow lose out and Beijing or Almaty get 2022, seeing as though PyeongChang has 2018 and Tokyo has 2020.

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It is unfair IMO. Difference is, Asia is a Continent, America is a Country. Also, if it was for example, Atlanta 1996 and Calgary 1998, that's not an issue IMO, but America getting 2 Olympics in 6 Years was unfair. It would be unfair if Oslo or Krakow lose out and Beijing or Almaty get 2022, seeing as though PyeongChang has 2018 and Tokyo has 2020.

You're impossible.

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If the US bids for 2024 and loses, it is highly unlikely they will bid for 2026. There is not enough turn around time to do a careful domestic evaluation.

Plus, if 2022 ends up in Asia (as is looking quite possible), I can easily imagine 2026 in Europe.

But Europe may not be interested in the 2026 Winter Olympics the way things are going there there is always Reno - Lake Tahoe 2026 is planning an bid with an committee which went to every winter games since 2006 I think the USOC will pick Reno - Lake Tahoe to bid for the 2026 Winter Games if they lose in 2024,

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I've said I believe America will get the 2026 Winter Olympics and Paralympics, with Denver. So, it's not 40 Years. Anyway, how is it fair America got 2 Olympic Games in 6 Years? (Atlanta 1996 and Salt Lake 2002).

It is unfair IMO. Difference is, Asia is a Continent, America is a Country. Also, if it was for example, Atlanta 1996 and Calgary 1998, that's not an issue IMO, but America getting 2 Olympics in 6 Years was unfair. It would be unfair if Oslo or Krakow lose out and Beijing or Almaty get 2022, seeing as though PyeongChang has 2018 and Tokyo has 2020.

Winter games and Summer games are not the same. 1896-1900 All Europe. 1906-1928 All Europe. 1944-1956 All Europe. 1960-1964 All Europe. 1972-1976 All Europe. 1992-1994 All Europe. 2004-2006 All Europe. 2012-2014 All Europe. What about Asia? Oh wait... 2018-2020 (and maybe 2022). France held both the 1924 games (but that's kinda different, though).

Is America not vast enough for you, huh? Do you think NYC is the same as LA in culture, experience, and style?

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If Beijing hosts 2022 that will be the same city hosting the Olympics within 14 years. It would be odd, but not "unfair."

Tony, I have you on "ignore." I made the mistake of answering one of your posts that someone else quoted. I won't make that mistake again.

You are a blight on this forum and I enjoy it far more when I don't have to see your nonsense. Don't bother responding. I won't read it.

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It is unfair IMO. Difference is, Asia is a Continent, America is a Country. Also, if it was for example, Atlanta 1996 and Calgary 1998, that's not an issue IMO, but America getting 2 Olympics in 6 Years was unfair. It would be unfair if Oslo or Krakow lose out and Beijing or Almaty get 2022, seeing as though PyeongChang has 2018 and Tokyo has 2020.

Tony WAKE UP Oslo and Krakow may not even be around in the 2022 race in 1 month time things are bleak for both of them right now I dont see it changing any time soon. It will be an race between Lviv Ukraine, Beijing China and Almaty Kazakhstan.

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Tony WAKE UP Oslo and Krakow may not even be around in the 2022 race in 1 month time things are bleak for both of them right now I dont see it changing any time soon. It will be an race between Lviv Ukraine, Beijing China and Almaty Kazakhstan.

Haha. Lviv?

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But Europe may not be interested in the 2026 Winter Olympics the way things are going there there is always Reno - Lake Tahoe 2026 is planning an bid with an committee which went to every winter games since 2006 I think the USOC will pick Reno - Lake Tahoe to bid for the 2026 Winter Games if they lose in 2024,

Just because someone wants to host doesn't mean they are capable. Reno is not capable. Period.

Plus there are other cities who have voiced interest and the USOC would want to hear them all out. That process takes time. The 2026 applications will be due very soon after the 2024 vote. The USOC is spending years planning their course for 2024. It's extremely unlikely they would slap a bid together for 2026 in a few weeks without an internal evaluation.

In short, I don't see much validity to your hypothesis.

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