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I could see the 2024 race shaping up like the 1996 race. Most people assumed that Athens would win the 96 Games, which kept other strong European bids out of the race. When it became obvious that Athens wasn't capable of hosting, Atlanta was able to capitalize. If a European city wins 2020 (and 2022), I think few, if any, European cities will bid for 2024. (Paris can try, but they won't get a third European Games in a row.) That would leave an Asian city, possibly a Middle Eastern city, and a U.S. city to challenge a Durban bid. There's no guarantee that Durban will be capable of hosting, and a strong U.S. bid could capitalize and win. I know Durban only needs to present an acceptable bid and not an excellent one to win, but I question whether they'll even be able to produce an acceptable bid at all.

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if everyone in this thread just agrees to agree with you will you please stop? i'm not sure how many more pages of you posting the exact same post on the damn bus drivers getting lost we can take. i

Why do you like to repeat yourself multiple times? Its very annoying.

In sum....

, but I question whether they'll even be able to produce an acceptable bid at all.

They (SASOC and the city of Durban) were ready to go this year except Pretoria decided to hold back, justifiably so, the purse strings. So how can they be less ready in another 4 (or actually 6 years) when the vote is held in 2017? So, you think they will let 3rd graders run the bid? :rolleyes:

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I could see the 2024 race shaping up like the 1996 race. Most people assumed that Athens would win the 96 Games, which kept other strong European bids out of the race. When it became obvious that Athens wasn't capable of hosting, Atlanta was able to capitalize. If a European city wins 2020 (and 2022), I think few, if any, European cities will bid for 2024. (Paris can try, but they won't get a third European Games in a row.) That would leave an Asian city, possibly a Middle Eastern city, and a U.S. city to challenge a Durban bid. There's no guarantee that Durban will be capable of hosting, and a strong U.S. bid could capitalize and win. I know Durban only needs to present an acceptable bid and not an excellent one to win, but I question whether they'll even be able to produce an acceptable bid at all.

Very intelligently argued. I think there's a high probability that Europe will win both 2020 and 2022 (whether or not the USOC makes the mistake of taking the bait). That would effectively eliminate Europe from consideration for 2024 -- unless it's Istanbul 2020, in which case they might say to themselves, "well, it's not THAT European....."

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Very intelligently argued. I think there's a high probability that Europe will win both 2020 and 2022 (whether or not the USOC makes the mistake of taking the bait). That would effectively eliminate Europe from consideration for 2024 -- unless it's Istanbul 2020, in which case they might say to themselves, "well, it's not THAT European....."

Yeap! I think if Istanbul wins 2024 a European city can be able to win... Also if Madrid or Rome win, Istanbul might be an excellent option for 2024. Anyways... I rather see a Chicago 2024 or Toronto, than a Durban.

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Yeap! I think if Istanbul wins 2024 a European city can be able to win... Also if Madrid or Rome win, Istanbul might be an excellent option for 2024. Anyways... I rather see a Chicago 2024 or Toronto, than a Durban.

Isn't Istanbul considered Euro?

Yeah I would prefer to see Chicago or Toronto over Durban. But that's just my North American bias coming out of me :D

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Isn't Istanbul considered Euro?

Yeah I would prefer to see Chicago or Toronto over Durban. But that's just my North American bias coming out of me :D

Well it does, but I'm culturally thalking about... Also is in East Europe. For example: Greece and Turkey are way to difrent from France or Germany...

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So South Africa 2024 is a done deal, right?

Well, that's been a point of major debate....

As of now, the bid process isn't even open, so it's not a done deal, but SA has to be viewed as formidable opponents if they do mount a bid.

It won't be guaranteed until the IOC president says "The host city of the Games of the XXXII Olympiad is...."

The question is whether the probability of SA winning is so high that it isn't worth spending 100 million bucks mounting a rival bid. That's a really tough question.

I want the US to bid for 2024 and win. I don't want a repeat of Chicago 2016. The USOC has four years to formulate a killer bid strategy and make lots of friends in the IOC. If they put together an awesome game plan, they should go for it and hope for the best.

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Stop insulting and devaluing Winter athletes.

Excuse me? You insult and devalue the athletes all the time. If you had your way, there would be NO athletes in the Olympic Games.

Typical Baron, talking out of both sides of his mouth.

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So South Africa 2024 is a done deal, right?

I think the better question is "if South Africa decides to bid, is it a done deal?" To which I still say the answer is no. It may very well happen and certainly few of us will be surprised. But unlike a lot of people here, I'm not ready to declare them a winner simply if they put forth an acceptable bid. A lot can change in the next 6 years.

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Right. Whether or not they bid is the first question. Whether or not it's a competent bid would be the second. If it is a competent bid, I personally would be surprised to see South Africa lose. Not saying it's impossible, but I would be surprised.

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The USOC values all athletes -- winter and summer.

The performance of American winter athletes has been improving dramatically, thanks in large part to Salt Lake 2002 and Vancouver 2010. Vancouver was the next best thing to Games on home soil since they were so accessible to American fans and culturally and linguistically almost identical... The record medal haul is evidence of the strength of America's winter athletes.

The same cannot be said for America's summer athletes. Although the US will still be a powerhouse for years to come, the US is encountering serious challenges in the marquee events. In track and field it's by Caribbean nations -- especially Jamaica. In diving the Chinese have totally superseded the Americans as the dominant force and the Americans are struggling to win any medals at all. Americans have all but disappeared off the map where boxing is concerned. American medals in cycling have diminished. For the time being, swimming is holding steady, but the US is being challenged by a wider variety of countries than ever before and especially by the Chinese (as shown by the recent World Championships). Gymnastics is the only major summer sport that I'm aware of where Americans have gained ground in recent Games and there are signs we could take a step backwards in London. We're not even on the radar in some of the less recognized sports such as badminton, weightlifting, table tennis, synchronized swimming, archery, rhythmic gymnastics, handball, kayaking....

Understand me, Beijing's medal haul was quite impressive for the US, but I think there are signs of chinks in the armor and I worry that those chinks could grow over the next few cycles in the absence of Summer Games on home soil. Several of the medal predictions that are beginning to emerge for London seem to reinforce this hypothesis. The winter athletes appear to be doing just fine and have gotten big shots in the arm very recently from Salt Lake and Vancouver. We need to offer the same to our summer athletes in the foreseeable future.

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I don't see track & field regaining interest in the U.S. regardless of whether we host a Summer Games in the near future. The doping scandals and lack of marketable stars since Atlanta have completely dropped the sport off the map, and a Summer Games might provide only a minor bump at best.

If the U.S. is not going to get a Summer Games until the 2030s (which I think is likely), then I'd like to see the USOC focus on bringing major world championship events to the U.S. The U.S. has never hosted the swimming or track worlds, and we rarely host world championships for summer sports at all. We haven't hosted gymnastics worlds since 2003 (and our next shot won't be until 2017), and championships for the minor sports are rarely held in the U.S. World championships don't bring the same attention as the Olympics, but they could provide a small shot in the arm as we wait for the next Summer Games in the U.S.

I'd also like to see the USOC encourage U.S. cities to bid for the 2023 or 2027 Pan-Am Games. That would give smaller U.S. cities like San Antonio, Minneapolis, etc., the opportunity to host a major event while also bringing more attention to Olympic sports in the U.S.

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The USOC values all athletes -- winter and summer.

The performance of American winter athletes has been improving dramatically, thanks in large part to Salt Lake 2002 and Vancouver 2010. Vancouver was the next best thing to Games on home soil since they were so accessible to American fans and culturally and linguistically almost identical... The record medal haul is evidence of the strength of America's winter athletes.

The same cannot be said for America's summer athletes. Although the US will still be a powerhouse for years to come, the US is encountering serious challenges in the marquee events. In track and field it's by Caribbean nations -- especially Jamaica. In diving the Chinese have totally superseded the Americans as the dominant force and the Americans are struggling to win any medals at all. Americans have all but disappeared off the map where boxing is concerned. American medals in cycling have diminished. For the time being, swimming is holding steady, but the US is being challenged by a wider variety of countries than ever before and especially by the Chinese (as shown by the recent World Championships). Gymnastics is the only major summer sport that I'm aware of where Americans have gained ground in recent Games and there are signs we could take a step backwards in London. We're not even on the radar in some of the less recognized sports such as badminton, weightlifting, table tennis, synchronized swimming, archery, rhythmic gymnastics, handball, kayaking....

Understand me, Beijing's medal haul was quite impressive for the US, but I think there are signs of chinks in the armor and I worry that those chinks could grow over the next few cycles in the absence of Summer Games on home soil. Several of the medal predictions that are beginning to emerge for London seem to reinforce this hypothesis. The winter athletes appear to be doing just fine and have gotten big shots in the arm very recently from Salt Lake and Vancouver. We need to offer the same to our summer athletes in the foreseeable future.

That's exactly it. As I'm sure you've heard from the TV commentators and pundits; it's NOT that the US is slackening off, it's just that the other nations are getting better (and of course, part of that is many champions are also trained in the US when they come here to study). So whether, we host a home Summer Games sooner or not, it's really NOT going to matter. Other nations are just getting better.

So here is where the US, as a bi-seasonal country, can keep its edge. Further promote our Winter athletes because we can train them year round -- and we don't have to train bobsledders from Jamaica or curlers from Nairobi or lugers from the Seychelles. To get good at winter sports, you basically have to live and train in a winter setting. Remember in Ice Dancing which used to be dominated by the Russians, we now have 2 of the top 3 couples in that discipline (well, thanks to ex-Russian coaches, too)? So the improved learning curve lesson can apply to the US too; and let's take full advantage of that.

So that is why, since the WOGs rotate between the 3 possible regions of the planet, why should the US throw away a chance at its "ordained" turn just because of a fear that the summer athletes will slacken? Isn't that the same thinking as let's put our best cities/bids forward rather than the so-so -- not to mention the yield is just about equal to the larger effort and $$ spent for a summer venture...which is NOT going to get thrown the US' way anytime soon since the IOC would also like to satisfy their other larger clients as well? So going for a WOGs sooner rather than later jsut makes more sense. Going the other way is just fallacious thinking to me.

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I don't see track & field regaining interest in the U.S. regardless of whether we host a Summer Games in the near future. The doping scandals and lack of marketable stars since Atlanta have completely dropped the sport off the map, and a Summer Games might provide only a minor bump at best.

If the U.S. is not going to get a Summer Games until the 2030s (which I think is likely), then I'd like to see the USOC focus on bringing major world championship events to the U.S. The U.S. has never hosted the swimming or track worlds, and we rarely host world championships for summer sports at all. We haven't hosted gymnastics worlds since 2003 (and our next shot won't be until 2017), and championships for the minor sports are rarely held in the U.S. World championships don't bring the same attention as the Olympics, but they could provide a small shot in the arm as we wait for the next Summer Games in the U.S.

I'd also like to see the USOC encourage U.S. cities to bid for the 2023 or 2027 Pan-Am Games. That would give smaller U.S. cities like San Antonio, Minneapolis, etc., the opportunity to host a major event while also bringing more attention to Olympic sports in the U.S.

It'll be a while before the United States gets the IAAF World Championships. Their requirements for stadium size and other support facilities are things that U.S. cities don't generally have available and the cost to hold these events may not be worth the trouble. And from what I understand, the IAAF was left with a somewhat bad taste in their mouth after Edmonton 2001 so they're not exactly rushing to come back to North America. Certainly the United States could land another gymnastics worlds. Swimming may be a little easier, although even that may seem like more trouble than it's worth.

I still get the sense that Americans look at these sports and athletes as things that come around once every 4 years and that someone like Michael Phelps doesn't do much swimming outside of the Olympics. How many ads have we seen for athletes that play up how they work for Home Depot or whatever else. Sometimes it makes it seem like these athletes have real jobs and that sports is almost more of a side activity for them. I don't know if there's a good solution for that in the age of instant status updates and social media or if the United States (or any particular city) is willing to pony up for the desire to host these events that aren't the Olympics (let alone for the Olympics themselves).

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As I've said before, I think the door is closed on any real shot for the U.S. getting a Summer Games until the 2030s. Any South African bid in 2024 is going to be a huge favorite and I predict the vote for 2024 will be as lopsided, if not more so, than the vote for 2008 when Beijing was a heavy favorite.

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I don't see track & field regaining interest in the U.S. regardless of whether we host a Summer Games in the near future. The doping scandals and lack of marketable stars since Atlanta have completely dropped the sport off the map, and a Summer Games might provide only a minor bump at best.

If the U.S. is not going to get a Summer Games until the 2030s (which I think is likely), then I'd like to see the USOC focus on bringing major world championship events to the U.S. The U.S. has never hosted the swimming or track worlds, and we rarely host world championships for summer sports at all. We haven't hosted gymnastics worlds since 2003 (and our next shot won't be until 2017), and championships for the minor sports are rarely held in the U.S. World championships don't bring the same attention as the Olympics, but they could provide a small shot in the arm as we wait for the next Summer Games in the U.S.

I'd also like to see the USOC encourage U.S. cities to bid for the 2023 or 2027 Pan-Am Games. That would give smaller U.S. cities like San Antonio, Minneapolis, etc., the opportunity to host a major event while also bringing more attention to Olympic sports in the U.S.

I really agree with the necessity of hosting smaller sporting events such as world championships, Pan-Ams, etc. This will build relationships with the IF's and increase interest in Olympic sports. (Quaker is right about the IAAF issue though...)

I do think that Games on home soil would be a great help to American athletes. 1.) the host nation automatically gets representation in some sports where otherwise they would have to qualify -- handball would be one example. 2.) the Games are often accompanied by athlete training programs that boost athletic performance (such as Canada's "Own the Podium") 3.) Games on home soil promote Olympic sports among youth and attract the next generation of American Olympians. 4.) Athletes often work especially hard to prepare for home Games because they know they are such a rare opportunity.

All of the above factors would help re-invigorate the United States' summer sports programs.

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The US is getting stronger in Winter Olympic sports and weaker in Summer Olympic sports. It's clear which type of athlete is more in need of the benefit derived from Games on home soil.

Athens, tell me something.. where is the United States getting weaker in Summer Olympic sports? In Athens, the United States won 103 medals including 35 gold. In Beijing, it was 110 medals and 36 gold, and that was with China's surge in the medal counts. Not to mention that in the team sports, the US teams seemed to do extremely well across the board.

You and baron amuse me sometimes.. you'll make a blanket statement in order to further your argument with no actual data (or misleading/less than conclusive numbers) to try and make your point.

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