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USA 2024


Athensfan
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As for 2020 bidders returning for 2024, it's quite possible none of them will.

Is Madrid really that much of a glutton for punishment? Is Istanbul? Tokyo took some convincing to jump into 2020 in the first place. Will the Japanese really try a third time?

Yes, they all could try again, but it's also very possible (and even likely, in my opinion) that none will throw down for 2024.

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I am not blind to the consequences of American Winter Games in 2026 -- namely a probable 50 year gap between American Summer Games -- a vast span considering our fast-paced Internet age, the US' contributions to the Olympic movement (financial and otherwise) and the US' world-leading athletic prowess. I am not blind to the fact that none of the above factors were in play during the previous Summer Games gap that occurred between 1932 and 1984.

The point that you and some others seem hesitant to accept is that American Games in 2026 will preclude Summer Games until the 40s or 50s. It absolutely is an either/or situation.

Remember upthread when you called out baron for stating personal opinions as fact? Might want to heed your own advice on that one.

I don't accept that point because I don't think it's true. 2026 might be a good geo-political window for a U.S. Winter Olympics that year and I think it would be foolish to pass it over entirely in order to wait for a Summer bid to come along. Let's say 2026 does come to the United States. That eliminates 2028. 2032 would be tough. But 2036 is well within the realm of possible, especially if the circumstances are favorable. Where you and I disagree is that you say there has to be 1 path and only 1 path (we know which one that is for you, it was in your signature for months) and that the other should take a back seat. The way the USOC operates, it's not impossible for them to do both at once, and I think they'd be foolish to do what you seem to be suggesting and focus solely on Summer Games.

Now the other wrench in this is Toronto. I know you're worried they could swoop in, land a Summer Olympics and put the next U.S. Summer Games off even further. I'll certainly grant you that's a valid concern. But how many times have we said you can't be concerned about who the competition might or might not be? Either way, it's not something that should dictate the USOC's course of action. They may decide, for reasons we've discussed here dozens of times, that they don't like what they have for 2026 or other winter bids going forward. But I think you're wrong when you say a US-hosted Olympics in 2026 makes a 50 year gap from Atlanta that much more probable than if they don't get 2026.

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With the new $1.2 billion A/C'ed Cowboys stadium, they're going to put up another $750 million T&F stadium? :blink: They aren't that rich!

Presumably, they'd renovate the Cotton Bowl. Great stadium, perfect location with numerous transportation links and free space.

There are many weaknesses to Dallas. But stadiums and venues are a strength, not weakness.

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The point that you and some others seem hesitant to accept is that American Games in 2026 will preclude Summer Games until the 40s or 50s. It absolutely is an either/or situation.

We "hesitate to accept it" because it's not necessarily true. You plucked it out of the air, you attache words like "absolutely" to it, and make it the driving force behind all your arguements.

Then you try to pick on others for stating opinion as fact. It's your opinion, nothing more, nothing less. Don't forget that and get all frustrated when not everyone has the exact same opinion.

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Presumably, they'd renovate the Cotton Bowl. Great stadium, perfect location with numerous transportation links and free space.

There are many weaknesses to Dallas. But stadiums and venues are a strength, not weakness.

Point granted. But still, I think Dallas is NOT an ideal place to hold a SOGs. If I were an IOC member, and had to choose between Dallas and Toronto, I would pick the latter. To me, the climate does matter; and I would want to give the athletes the most agreeable climate as possible.

[Just looked up some interesting factoids about the Cotton Bowl. About 1.5 years older than LA's Memorial Coliseum but has never had a T&F track. However, for the 1984 TV film "The Jesse Owens Story," it stood in for the Berlin 1936 stadium (sans the track), while the race scenes were shot at Fouts Field at North Texas State (now University of North Texas). Hmmmm, maybe that's as close to an "Olympics" as the Cotton Bowl will ever get. ;) ]

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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Could Canada have hosted 2010 and win 2020? Could Rome have won 2016 after Torino 2006?

Why would the IOC suddenly be so nice to the USA as to give them 2 Games 10 years apart. Isn't that exactly the paradigm the IOC is trying so hard to get away from?

Listen to the likes of George railing against frequent American hosting. I'm sure there are IOC members who share his view.

I acknowledge that this is my opinion, but I believe there's overwhelming support for it. I don't see anything but naive optimism and obsolete history supporting the contrary position.

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I don't think there is any "must". I think the USA should expect at least a 20 year gap between hostings, whether Summer or Winter. It could be longer, depending on the IOC.

I don't think the IOC "must" award the USA anything. I think that if the US focuses on Summer bids they probably will win by 3032. I don't think there is any guarantee the US would win 2024.

If you don't want to talk about the USA, just read a different thread. There are lots to choose from.

Ha! I meant 2032!

All the above is obviously opinion.

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Could Canada have hosted 2010 and win 2020? Could Rome have won 2016 after Torino 2006?

Uhmmm....Canada, USA - maples, apples. 30 mil vs. 305 mil.

Rome might've have. Except we'll never know, will we?

Why would the IOC suddenly be so nice to the USA as to give them 2 Games 10 years apart. Isn't that exactly the paradigm the IOC is trying so hard to get away from?

Listen to the likes of George railing against frequent American hosting. I'm sure there are IOC members who share his view.

George does NOT determine the awards nor do I think is he a legitimate IOC voter doing a GambesBids 101 stance.

As you said, AF, when I've postulated how the US cards will fall - you never know. Well, YOU NEVER KNOW if the IOC will give the US a WOG and a SOG w/in a 10-year span. History repeats itself. Who would've thought before 2005 that London (and Salzburg) would be 3-peat Olympic hosts?

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Why would the IOC suddenly be so nice to the USA as to give them 2 Games 10 years apart. Isn't that exactly the paradigm the IOC is trying so hard to get away from?

Suddenly? They just awarded the US games 6 years apart. The time before that they awarded the US games 4 years apart. The time before that, they awared the US games 5 months apart.

The paradigm has always been that Summer and Winter games can be held in the same country in close proximity. You are the one who has imaged that the IOC has completly reversed that. While that may actually be true, the IOC certainlly has said they feel that way. And even if you are right that the IOC has completely changed it's paradigm since the 2012 games, that just means the IOC could completely change it back.

I acknowledge that this is my opinion, but I believe there's overwhelming support for it.

There no support for your position. Just conjecture.

I don't see anything but naive optimism and obsolete history supporting the contrary position.

Obsolete history? For the first 19 winter games, as recently as 2002 they clearly could be held closly to summer games. Since then, there hasn't been a single pronounement to the contrary.

EDIT - meant to say the IOC has certainly NOT said they feel there is a change.

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But the IOC has clearly had a change of heart since then. NO ONE is saying "man we need to go back to those days when the US hosted four games within 22 years!"

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride. The IOC can't make it much clearer (without being flat out offensive) that the days of frequent American Games are over.

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I don't think there is any "must". I think the USA should expect at least a 20 year gap between hostings, whether Summer or Winter. It could be longer, depending on the IOC.

I don't think the IOC "must" award the USA anything. I think that if the US focuses on Summer bids they probably will win by 3032. I don't think there is any guarantee the US would win 2024.

If you don't want to talk about the USA, just read a different thread. There are lots to choose from.

Ha! I meant 2032!

All the above is obviously opinion.

ΙΟC members the last 15 years are mainly former athletes and not royal family members as in the past. That means that they use different criteria in their decisions

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I'm getting it from both sides.

George is accusing me of being excessively pro-USA and seems to think I have unrealistically high expectations of the frequency of American hosting. Conversely, Zeke is accusing me of being too negative and pessimistic when I say I don't see any chance of the US hosting 2 Olympic Games within 10 years.

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ΙΟC members the last 15 years are mainly former athletes and not royal family members as in the past. That means that they use different criteria in their decisions

Oh, more like the last 25 years. The half-Yank, half-Monagesque Prince Albert, winter sportsman, joined the IOC in 1985. Anita deFrantz, a former rower, was admitted in 1986. The outgoing president, Jackie-baby R., only joined in 1991, yet by 2001 he was at the pinnacle of the Olympic world!! (Or even as early as 1946 when Avery Brundage joined the IOC; and 1963 when ex-King Constantine of Greece, yachtsman at Rome 1960, also became an IOC member. He is still an honorary member today.)

It only changes things in that the technical demands will be taking a higher precedence over the swank locations but they still have to be capable, tier A cities to make the short list.

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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There are 2 things I'm fairly sure of when it comes to these things.. 1) Past history doesn't predict the future and 2) it wouldn't matter anyway, because you can't predict the future. There's simply no way to know what's going to happen 2 or 3 cycles down the line. That all said...

Could Canada have hosted 2010 and win 2020? Could Rome have won 2016 after Torino 2006?

As noted, the United States is not Canada. Nor is it Italy. Hosting 6 years apart like Atlanta to SLC is probably unlikely. But is 10 years reasonably possible? Perhaps. 14 years? Absolutely.

Why would the IOC suddenly be so nice to the USA as to give them 2 Games 10 years apart. Isn't that exactly the paradigm the IOC is trying so hard to get away from?

It's not something they're trying to get away from. They simply have more options to choose from than they ever had before. Africa and South America never used to be on the Olympic hosting map. China wasn't in the picture. I think it's less about spacing out Olympics in the same country as it is a simple of matter of trying to spread the wealth around more. It doesn't preclude a country like the United States hosting twice 10 or 14 years apart.

Listen to the likes of George railing against frequent American hosting. I'm sure there are IOC members who share his view.

That's based on 4 Olympics in 22 years though. In the following 22 years, the United States will have hosted 0 Olympics, so those IOC members can't as easily use the frequent hosting card against the USOC. It was 12 years from LA to Atlanta and then 6 to Salt Lake. That's pretty frequent. To then have a gap of 22 years where no less than 10 different countries will have hosted an Olympics pushes the 1980-2002 run that much further into the past.

I don't think there is any "must". I think the USA should expect at least a 20 year gap between hostings, whether Summer or Winter. It could be longer, depending on the IOC.

Are you talking between any 2 hostings? i.e. 20 years between a U.S. Summer and a U.S. Winter? Given continental rotation on the winter side (where there aren't exactly a lot of new frontier opportunities), it's reasonable to think that North America should land a Winter Olympics every 3-4 cycles. Having only 2 countries to choose from, it's then reasonable to believe the United States is in line for a Winter Olympics once every 30 years or so. Let's say an American city manages to land 2024. Do you really think it will be until the 2040s before the United States gets another Winter Olympics when the only other option on this continent is to return to Canada? That's why you need to be careful where you assume how Summer will affect Winter. And again, with almost every other country, that's a much bigger issue than it is with the United States.

But the IOC has clearly had a change of heart since then. NO ONE is saying "man we need to go back to those days when the US hosted four games within 22 years!"

And again, no one is expecting 4 Olympics in 22 years. I agree those days are over. But is it that unthinkable that the United States could land 2 Olympics in 14 years or less?

I acknowledge that this is my opinion, but I believe there's overwhelming support for it. I don't see anything but naive optimism and obsolete history supporting the contrary position.

I'd call it more empirical evidence than overwhelming supporting. Let's be honest.. you want Summer Games. Just like baron (no offense, but it's not like it's a secret here) wants Winter Games. So both of you have this tendency to spin everything so that it favors what you're trying to get. You 2 would make great politicians in that regard :D

The bottom line for me is this, and I say it all the time.. it's impossible to predict how these things are going to shake out more than 10-20 years down the line. I'm not trying to pile on you here, despite what the length of this post might indicate, I just think your overview of all this is a little off. My opinion versus yours, of course. As it is my opinion that while the USOC *should* be trying to find that perfectly timed Summer candidate, they'd be making a mistake if that was their only focus and to put aside Winter bidding as a result.

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But the IOC has clearly had a change of heart since then. NO ONE is saying "man we need to go back to those days when the US hosted four games within 22 years!"

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride. The IOC can't make it much clearer (without being flat out offensive) that the days of frequent American Games are over.

This is quite possibly the least logical argument I've ever seen on the internet. As recently as 10 years ago we've had close summer/winter olympics in the same country. They've said *nothing* that they've changed their mind. You are taking their silence to mean that they have totally changed their policy. And not only do you think that's what their silence says, you think they couldn't make it clearer. That's insane. Don't trust us.. if you have any friends outside the issue run that logic by them. See what they think.

PS - For starters, if the IOC really believe what you think they do, they *could make it clearer" by simply saying it. Just say one of the factors in picking a host city for the summer/winter Olympics is how recently that country hosted the other games.

Zeke is accusing me of being too negative and pessimistic when I say I don't see any chance of the US hosting 2 Olympic Games within 10 years.

My point is that you (1) imagine that the IOC has a rule they may or may not have, (2) pretend there is evidence of it that doesn't exist, (3) state your opinion as fact, (4) insit it is crystal clear... even though it's not to anyone but you, (5) continually bash the idea of a Winter Games around this one "fact.", (6) get upset when everyone doesn't bow down and agree with you.

If you simply wanted to be negative and say the US won't host 2 games within 10 year, I'd probably agree with you. But it has nothing to do with this made up IOC rule.

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Zeke first: there is no "rule" and I never said there was. You are responding to my response to George whose opinion is the polar opposite of your own.

Quaker: when you say 2 Games in 14 years is "absolutely possible" for the US -- that fits into my 40s or 50's prognostication. A 14 year gap (the bare minimum in my opinion -- and probably not enough) means the soonest the US could host a SOG after 2026 is 2040.

As for 4 Games in 22 years, don't you think it's probable that the IOC feels they are presently balancing the scales and righting injustice by making the US wait? 4 Games in 44 years is still far more frequent than any other country (I think this is one of George's objections).

If the SOG comes first, the WOG can follow more closely. I still think 10 years is a stretch, but 14 might work. (I've said this many times.) Because there are fewer WOG options, the IOC is more likely to overlook proximity of Games -- as long as the SOG comes first. This does not hold true if the order is reversed because there are more viable SOG options. I believe the IOC will consider the US to be satisfied with a Winter consolation prize and will make them wait.

Both Quaker and Zeke: If you are waiting for the IOC to come out and say, "The USA has hosted too often. They need to wait decades before we give them more Olympics" -- you never will. They talk with their votes. Not only are they not choosing American bids, they ARE choosing new frontier bids and seem to be making a concerted effort to rotate the Games around the globe. Plus, consider how internationals view the United States. The USA is no longer seen as the promised land of the free that it once was -- not even by allies such as Great Britain. The tone of the international media is much harsher towards the US than it was a couple of decades ago. You can pick up on this tone in IOC specific stories as well. Nobody is going to say, "We're putting the USA in their place," but that is exactly what I believe they're trying to do.

Of course Canada and Italy are not the USA. And of course George is not an IOC member. However, I do not think he is alone in his feeling that the USA should be brought down a peg. I do not believe the IOC will hand out special exemptions for the US. I actually think it is MORE likely that some other country (Russia, China, Italy, Canada) will be granted Games in close succession because the IOC can send a message about the US place in the relative world order by doing that.

Some of you are willing to gamble that the IOC will hand the US two Games in relatively close proximity. Even if you dismiss all my arguments, have you considered what will happen if you are wrong? Is it really inconsequential if there is a fifty-year gap between American Summer Games? Your gamble is way too risky for me.

Only time will tell which of us is correct so there's really not much point in arguing further.

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Quaker: when you say 2 Games in 14 years is "absolutely possible" for the US -- that fits into my 40s or 50's prognostication. A 14 year gap (the bare minimum in my opinion -- and probably not enough) means the soonest the US could host a SOG after 2026 is 2040.

Why for US the bare minimum between 2 Olympics is 14 years and for other countries isn't enough? Vancouver 2010, Toronto 2024

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Why for US the bare minimum between 2 Olympics is 14 years and for other countries isn't enough? Vancouver 2010, Toronto 2024

George, you seriously need to read my posts more carefully. I already made the argument (YOUR argument) about Vancouver/Toronto, Torino/Rome. I already said that if they can't pull it off I don't think the US can. You're just not reading.

If you can't tell I'm closer to your position on these boards than anyone else currently posting. I'm getting really tired of you coming after me. Lay off.

George READ:

As for 4 Games in 22 years, don't you think it's probable that the IOC feels they are presently balancing the scales and righting injustice by making the US wait? 4 Games in 44 years is still far more frequent than any other country (I think this is one of George's objections).

....

Of course Canada and Italy are not the USA. And of course George is not an IOC member. However, I do not think he is alone in his feeling that the USA should be brought down a peg. I do not believe the IOC will hand out special exemptions for the US. I actually think it is MORE likely that some other country (Russia, China, Italy, Canada) will be granted Games in close succession because the IOC can send a message about the US place in the relative world order by doing that.

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Presumably, they'd renovate the Cotton Bowl. Great stadium, perfect location with numerous transportation links and free space.

There are many weaknesses to Dallas. But stadiums and venues are a strength, not weakness.

The Cotton Bowl was renovated in 2008. Renovating or rebuilding it would be a waste of money.

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The Cotton Bowl was renovated in 2008. Renovating or rebuilding it would be a waste of money.

What Zeke was saying if anybody ever got serious w/ an Olympics for Dallas, then that would be the logical venue to be renovated as the main Athletics stadium. No one is saying it is going to get done.

I think Canada/USA would have had an edge for 2020 so go figure.

After Rio? Nope. The old fogeys in the IOC who still think the Americas are ONE continent are still there in droves. You need to give them the breathing room of at least one Games in between elsewhere, otherwise it totally disorients their sense of geography and causes them to hyperventilate at the thought of the New World actually being TWO separate landmasses. U don't want that on your hands. Or maybe u do? :blink:

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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