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USA 2024


Athensfan
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That would still leave Africa and Asia. And if Tokyo doesn't get the games in 2020, they'll probably be in the race for 2024. Not to some African countries that may be interested.

Forget Africa - sorry, but that continent is, by and large, a basket case. South Africa is about the only country that can realistically host the Olympic Games, and that's provided the ANC there doesn't do a Mugabe in the years ahead.

In terms of Asia, only China can realistically host if Japan ends up losing the 2020 race (the Japanese have made it clear they won't bid again, if this bid is rejected as well). I'm thinking Shanghai or Hong Kong.

Most of South-East Asia can be safely discounted, with Singapore and Kuala Lumpur being outside choices, if the respective governments want to throw the proverbial sink at an Olympic bid. India isn't ready for the next 10 years - maybe for a bid for the 2030s or early 2040s, if they finally get their act together. The Middle East is effectively stigmatized through bad headlines, bad governance and bad sport.

Russia may or may not host for the foreseeable future, but I think Sochi was thrown in as a consolation price to neutralize any claims by the Putin regime to a Summer Games. Looking at Eastern Europe, the fringes (Baltic republics, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, former Soviet states) are too small, incapable or economically too unstable to host the Games. Greece is not hosting anytime soon, they've really got bigger fish to fry. Italy may, in a fit of megalomania (see also: Madrid 2020) attempt to host, but has no convincing economy, narrative or contribution to the Olympic Movement to offer (or a strategic role). Plus, they have hosted Turin 2006, so that's more than enough for now. Austria is not going to host the Summer Games, maybe a Winter edition in Salzburg if they're really lucky. Ditto for Switzerland (in Sion or St Moritz). Benelux has limited options: Luxembourg's way too small (their greatest sporting event will be hosting the 2013 Small-State Games...no joke!) and Belgium's way too chaotic (ever been on their railways?). The Netherlands only has Amsterdam to apply with, and they could only succeed if the IOC is in a small-is-beautiful sort of mood (which might be, you know, never). Ditto for Denmark, who could in a very weak year apply with Copenhagen and get away with it. Scandinavia is way too cold for Summer Games, Britain's not an option anytime soon.

Germany is the only country in Europe that can offer three cities for hosting (Berlin, Hamburg and Munich), is economically viable, has made a substantial contribution to the Olympic Movement and has a strong sporting tradition. Our weakness is a misplaced sense of idealism, too little pragmatism and too much disdain for politicking. So it may well be France, except that they "only" have Paris. I do have a feeling that the IOC has an in-built guilt mechanism with previously rejected cities (Athens, Beijing), so they may well get the nod in 2024. So, after Paris: What? Marseille, Lyon, Bordeaux? Please!

Spain is practically bankrupt, ditto for Portugal.

North America has a few choices, but the States is resented in the IOC. So, that may leave Canada, except that they too only have one realistic candidate for a Summer Games - Toronto, which has failed several times. Vancouver is not an option, since they've hosted the Winter Games, and I really doubt the good people of Montréal have the stomach for yet another adventure in the Taillibert-designed "Big O" after just paying off the debt from those particular Games.

Mexico? Forget it, basket case, drug cartels and political instability. Argentina is not hosting anytime soon, thanks to President Kirchner's left-wing policies. Only realistic countries there are Brazil and Chile.

Oh, and then there is Australia. In a weak year, they may get away with a re-do of Melbourne well before 2036 or 2040. But only if it's a weak year.

So, this is the situation as I see it today. The IOC does not have all that many choices for countries to host the Olympic Games in the midst of an economic crisis.

So, the US better throw in a really international city into the mix!

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In terms of Asia, only China can realistically host if Japan ends up losing the 2020 race (the Japanese have made it clear they won't bid again, if this bid is rejected as well). I'm thinking Shanghai or Hong Kong.

The burghers of Busan will be itching to press their "Olympic bid" buttons as soon as the glow of PyongChang 2018 wears off. Like in 2024! :lol:

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The burghers of Busan will be itching to press their "Olympic bid" buttons as soon as the glow of PyongChang 2018 wears off. Like in 2024! :lol:

I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that. I mean, if the folks in Busan are that itchy after 2018 that they have to go out and build a time machine so they can go back to bid in 2017 (which is when the vote for 2024 would occur), I don't think I want them hosting the Olympics! Would you?

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I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that. I mean, if the folks in Busan are that itchy after 2018 that they have to go out and build a time machine so they can go back to bid in 2017 (which is when the vote for 2024 would occur), I don't think I want them hosting the Olympics! Would you?

Well, I just said that about Busan because it seems that if PC was not going for a 3rd round in 2011/18, they were ready to jump in and be a candidate for 2020.

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I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that. I mean, if the folks in Busan are that itchy after 2018 that they have to go out and build a time machine so they can go back to bid in 2017 (which is when the vote for 2024 would occur), I don't think I want them hosting the Olympics! Would you?

Hmm, time machine eh? They should go to China. I'm from the future. They should go to China.

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Since this is a USA topic, and in an attempt to get it back on topic..

Pretty much - that, and a convincing narrative that cuts it with the Olympic Movement.

The problem is that you need more than a narrative and a plan.. you need a little bit of good timing as well. NYC 2012 was set up to make use of new venues and, for all its faults, largely fit into the grander scheme of certain things the city was trying to accomplish (i.e. development of Hudson Yards, improving transit access in from NJ, etc.) Aside from the obvious reasons, that's why they showed little to no interest in bidding for 2016. The city simply moved on. I don't know as much about Chicago's story, although it's been noted that the ideal timing for them may have been to use the renovations of Soldier Field to help spur their bid. Unfortunately that wasn't an option for them. So look at cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco.. both are looking at building new football stadiums. It would be nice to incorporate an Olympics into that. But again, the problem is that those plans won't wait for an Olympics and it's unlikely to work out that such plans would incorporate the future possibility of an Olympic bid. Especially in tough economic times, that's a tough sell to make an Olympics plan work when most of the major cities don't have billions of dollars or the time to wait on something that, if they're lucky, would only happen 9 years down the road.

That largely puts us back at square one. NYC 2012 was formed around the vision of a business man who thought he could bring and Olympics to New York. That spark could be hiding in LA or San Fran or Chicago or maybe with someone else in New York, but the way the USOC operates, it's not like they can be like a Rio or a Tokyo or an Istanbul who will have the backing of their NOC to keep trying until they get that. I know I've said I wish it worked that way here, but it doesn't. I know the narrative here is often Summer vs. Winter where Summer is the bigger prize but Winter would be easier to land. There's a reason for that though. The right city needs to emerge at the right time with the right plan or else you're just hoping to get lucky and that's probably not the way to play this game in the 21st century.

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The reality is, however, that the Wintercandidates aren't any great shakes. Reno has great mountains, but the city is the pits and has almost no ice venues. Denver's a great locale but comes with historical baggage and a transportation issue. SLC hosted the last Olympics on American soil. Not a great set of options.

As for a new bid system, I think we're seeing the beginning of that with the change in the domestic process. The USOC has realized that the IOC is a different animal now than it was in the 70s and 80s. They know they have to play the game differently. Whose to say how deep the changes may go? Perhaps they will rally behind one city until it wins...

Typo. Read "Who's to say..."

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The reality is, however, that the Wintercandidates aren't any great shakes. Reno has great mountains, but the city is the pits and has almost no ice venues. Denver's a great locale but comes with historical baggage and a transportation issue. SLC hosted the last Olympics on American soil. Not a great set of options.

As for a new bid system, I think we're seeing the beginning of that with the change in the domestic process. The USOC has realized that the IOC is a different animal now than it was in the 70s and 80s. They know they have to play the game differently. Whose to say how deep the changes may go? Perhaps they will rally behind one city until it wins...

Typo. Read "Who's to say..."

Despite those negatives, at least there are viable candidates already out there. And as much as I know you dislike the logic, the fact of the matter is that landing a Winter Olympics will be easier than landing a Summer Olympics. I don't think it has to be either/or in terms of the USOC's and that going for 1 means not trying for the other. I also don't think the new bid system necessarily helps a city's chances of winning. It's just a different method for them to weed out the right candidate more efficiently than they did in the past. It would be great for them to find a city to rally behind. I'm just less than confident such a city is going to emerge with the type of plan that's going to win the IOC over and that they'll be able to stick to it through multiple cycles. Like you I hope it does so I remain cautiously optimistic, but in this day and age, it's a tougher sell than its ever been before

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I have never disputed that geopolitics make Winter Games easier to land than Summer ones. That's true of every country that's capable of hosting Winter Games. There are simply fewer Winter options available. That still doesn't mean the US will win Winter Games if they bid for 2026. If they do, it will be at least partly because a good number of IOCers will realize that giving the US Winter Games will enable them to withhold Summer Games for decades longer.

The point that you and some others seem hesitant to accept is that American Games in 2026 will preclude Summer Games until the 40s or 50s. It absolutely is an either/or situation.

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The point that you and some others seem hesitant to accept is that American Games in 2026 will preclude Summer Games until the 40s or 50s. It absolutely is an either/or situation.

Well, maybe the stars just aren't aligned for an American Summer Games in the next 4 or 5 rounds. Why bypass a Winter turn just because the Summer stars don't line up? You also seem blind to that much stronger option. Go with the flow, man.

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I think if the US went in hard for 2024, it would easily fall any African or European bid. It all depends on the city. NYC, Chicago, Philly, etc... step forward.

If the USOC puts forward Dallas/Minneapolis (aka Atlanta 2.0); then hello Durban/Paris 2024.

You forget Toronto and the losers of 2020 bid.

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Well, maybe the stars just aren't aligned for an American Summer Games in the next 4 or 5 rounds. Why bypass a Winter turn just because the Summer stars don't line up? You also seem blind to that much stronger option. Go with the flow, man.

I am not blind to the option of Winter Games. The USOC has said they will look at 2026 and I'm sure they are doing so.

I am not blind to the glamour Games being staged by Sochi and Pyeongchang either. I am not blind to Reno's decided shortcomings and their own comments of "it is what it is." I am not blind to Denver's historical baggage or their transport issue. I am not blind to the fact that SLC hosted Winter Games 10 years ago -- the last Olympics on American soil.

I am not blind to the consequences of American Winter Games in 2026 -- namely a probable 50 year gap between American Summer Games -- a vast span considering our fast-paced Internet age, the US' contributions to the Olympic movement (financial and otherwise) and the US' world-leading athletic prowess. I am not blind to the fact that none of the above factors were in play during the previous Summer Games gap that occurred between 1932 and 1984.

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So did New York in 2005 for 2012 bid, Salt Lake city was 3 years before.

Yes, George, but there are three important points:

1. This is a USA thread -- not a Toronto thread. Please write about Canada in the appropriate place.

2. NYC lost. The posters on this forum pretty unanimously agree that 2012 was too soon for more American Games. Therefore, you drawing this comparison underscores why the 2024 timing is problematic for Toronto.

3. Your blatant anti-Americanism has a tendency to derail the current topic of conversation by hurling monkey-wrenches into the thread -- which I'm sure is your intention. Perhaps you should start another thread devoted to the airing of grievances?

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