USA 2024

[Quaker2001]

Madrid winning provides the best chances for the games to return to the West. No matter who wins I think 2024 would go to the US.

If Tokyo wins 2020, that's 2 straight Summer Olympics outside Europe. Can't see 3 in a row happening, particularly if there's no overwhelmingly compelling candidate from North America.

[Gangwon]

If Tokyo wins 2020, that's 2 straight Summer Olympics outside Europe. Can't see 3 in a row happening, particularly if there's no overwhelmingly compelling candidate from North America.

I don't agree with that anymore. There are now arguably 6 continents that can host a Games, and Europe can't go more than 12 years without one? It wasn't too long ago that Europe did frequently go 12 years in between hosting, it's just a matter of time before they go 16 years.

[Sir Rols]

I've always thought, that inn terms of TV viewing timezones, a South African games would be a bonus for Europe.

[runningrings]

I've always thought, that inn terms of TV viewing timezones, a South African games would be a bonus for Europe.

It is. In fact, in some ways you could argue that a South African Olympics could be an 'annexed' European Olympics - given that it falls flat into their timezone in a similar way that Rio 2016 will be just as beneficial to North American audiences as any Chicago Olympics.

I agree with Gangwon that it is not unrealistic to expect Europe to wait up to 20 years to host the Summer Games - particularly when it has so many Winter hosts at its disposal to tie them over in the meantime.

It is not exactly hard to imagine a world in which Athens 2004 had never happened, where London 2012 was the first Summer Games on the continent since Barcelona. The structure of the Olympics wouldn't have collapsed; Europe wouldn't have been forgotten.

One of the reasons I like the idea of Istanbul as the next European Olympics, even if only eight years after London, is that it is culturally and physically presenting an entirely different version of Europe to London.

[Quaker2001]

I don't agree with that anymore. There are now arguably 6 continents that can host a Games, and Europe can't go more than 12 years without one? It wasn't too long ago that Europe did frequently go 12 years in between hosting, it's just a matter of time before they go 16 years.

Can they?.. sure. Will they?.. I don't know.

Think about recent history. We had Athens 2004. 8 years later, there was a slew of European candidates lined up for the bidding. Somewhat similarly, 8 years after London, there were originally 4 candidates for 2020 and 3 of them (okay, 2 1/2 of them) are European.

Yea there's 6 continents, but South America just got theirs so they won't be back there for awhile. Oceania won't see another Olympics for a few decades. And who knows when South Africa will go after theirs. So after that, you're left with the original 3. And you'll always have more countries in Europe than you will elsewhere looking to host the Olympics.

So again, let's say Tokyo gets 2020. Would that not make Europe a pretty decent bet, South Africa notwithstanding, to get 2024? Yea, eventually they may go 16 years between Summer Olympics. But so long as the IOC remains a Euro-centric organization, I wouldn't count on it.

[Sir Rols]

Yea there's 6 continents, but South America just got theirs so they won't be back there for awhile. Oceania won't see another Olympics for a few decades. And who knows when South Africa will go after theirs. So after that, you're left with the original 3. And you'll always have more countries in Europe than you will elsewhere looking to host the Olympics.

Yeah, that's the trouble with any sort of formalised rotation policy. It's fine when you really want to make sure a particular region gets a prize - like FIFA did to get their 2010 WC to South Africa - but after that, there's not that many other candidates that could step up for Africa's next "turn". Ditto with the IOC and South America or Africa - there's not a lot of options for them to choose from to make it a regular occurence.

It's all very well to talk about the world developing and giving more opportunities for regions to host things, but when push comes to shove, it's still Europe with the most viable host locations; North America with three possible countries; Asia, for all it's growing economic importance, it's still hard to see any host outside of the east Asian three of Japan, China and South Korea - maybe a middle eastern site at a pinch; Oceania is a once in every half-century or even full century option; I can't see a South American games again for a good while after Rio; and Africa has South Africa and then... not much else viable.

[Quaker2001]

It is not exactly hard to imagine a world in which Athens 2004 had never happened, where London 2012 was the first Summer Games on the continent since Barcelona. The structure of the Olympics wouldn't have collapsed; Europe wouldn't have been forgotten.

Who was 2nd in the running after Athens? Another European city. Behind them, you had South Africa, another European city, and a South American city. If Europe somehow had missed out on 2004, you can bet they would have gotten 2008, Beijing or otherwise. That's the thing when you're looking at the timeline of hosts, either past or future. You change out 1 city and you could make a case that 1 ripple changes almost every future host.

[Sir Rols]

That's the thing when you're looking at the timeline of hosts, either past or future. You change out 1 city and you could make a case that 1 ripple changes almost every future host.

It's always a fun, if ultimately pointless, exercise. I remember we did a thread once on "what would have happened if Athens won 1996?". There were lots and lots of scenarios, some likely, some fantastic, that people posited.

[Gangwon]

Think about recent history. We had Athens 2004. 8 years later, there was a slew of European candidates lined up for the bidding. Somewhat similarly, 8 years after London, there were originally 4 candidates for 2020 and 3 of them (okay, 2 1/2 of them) are European..

That's actually a good point. If we consider 2 of the 3 the times when Europe went 12 years without hosting, Europe either wasn't interested in bidding (80's) or if they were, used their B-list cities to apply (90's). It would be safe to say when Europe is serious about bidding, they'll get it sooner rather than later.

But neither of those were the cases in the 60's when Tokyo and Mexico City hosted back to back. And all it takes is that one time to create a new standard. If Beijing bid in 2004, would they have won? That would make it at least 16 years for Europe. Looking ahead, I see no reason why it won't happen sooner or later.

Conversely, I can see Europe getting back to back winter games. The only real unlikelihood I see is a back to back summer Olympics for any continent.

Edit: I actually see now that Europe didn't bid with any top cities in the 60's either. So that doesn't help me!

[Quaker2001]

It's always a fun, if ultimately pointless, exercise. I remember we did a thread once on "what would have happened if Athens won 1996?". There were lots and lots of scenarios, some likely, some fantastic, that people posited.

I've thought about that one before. Do you know where that thread might still live somewhere, I'd like to check that out. I'll tell you what I think would have happened if Athens won 1996.. New York City 2008!

[runningrings]

I've thought about that one before. Do you know where that thread might still live somewhere, I'd like to check that out. I'll tell you what I think would have happened if Athens won 1996.. New York City 2008!

Gosh - 9/11 only months after the city was awarded the 2008 Games would have been like the London bombings after the 2012 announcement - only on another level of intensity.

I still think Sydney would have held onto 2000 if Athens had 1996.

Perhaps if the USA was still that interested in hosting the Olympics again soon after 1984 then we might have had a NYC/ Chicago/ Atlanta...Minneapolis 2004 Olympics.

[Sir Rols]

I've thought about that one before. Do you know where that thread might still live somewhere, I'd like to check that out. I'll tell you what I think would have happened if Athens won 1996.. New York City 2008!

Just tried to hunt it down, but no luck. Maybe that's a cue to start a new one?

I still think Sydney would have held onto 2000 if Athens had 1996.

I think my alternative history timeline had Melbourne finally cracking it for Oz in 2016.

[runningrings]

Just tried to hunt it down, but no luck. Maybe that's a cue to start a new one?

I think my alternative history timeline had Melbourne finally cracking it for Oz in 2016.

That is a fun thought! Although, I do think we wouldn't get to that point unless Sydney had another crack or two. Perhaps Sydney would have joined the international rat-race for 2012.

I think Sydney has the international swagger and mettle to take on those giants, even if fruitless. Melbourne's sensibilities wouldn't have allowed it to try and step up to the likes of NYC/Paris/London - even though it has better credentials than most of them (bar London)

Melbourne would have made a great rival to Chicago for 2016.

[Sir Rols]

That is a fun thought! Although, I do think we wouldn't get to that point unless Sydney had another crack or two. Perhaps Sydney would have joined the international rat-race for 2012.

I think Sydney has the international swagger and mettle to take on those giants, even if fruitless. Melbourne's sensibilities wouldn't have allowed it to try and step up to the likes of NYC/Paris/London - even though it has better credentials than most of them (bar London)

It's been so long ago I can't remember the details I thought up, but i think I had Beijing beating Sydney for 2000, the AOC getting the sh!ts and sitting out 2004-2008, NYC or Toronto (can't remember which) beating Sydney again in 2012, and Melbourne winning the whole shebang when the AOC reluctantly allowed them to make a 2016 bid.

[runningrings]

If someone could dig up the thread, I'd love to add my 5cents!

There are several fictional Olympics I've always thought would have been interesting. I've always loved the idea of Alexandria, Egypt hosting the 1928 Olympics. Copenhagen would have made a great host in the 50's or 60's.

I feel quite certain that if Melbourne had failed at securing 1956 - then would very likely have ended up with Sydney 1988. I think there would have been more thought an ambition put into the 1988 bid than there was.

[mr.bernham]

Just tried to hunt it down, but no luck. Maybe that's a cue to start a new one?

I think my alternative history timeline had Melbourne finally cracking it for Oz in 2016.

Yeah please start a new one! This sounds like fun!

[runningrings]

I think we should start a new thread - BUT - the rule should be that we offer several 'points of diversion' for us to all work on.

Eg/

Everything the same UNTIL Alexandria 1928

Everything the same UNTIL Vienna 1964

Everything the same UNTIL Denver 1976

there are so many options ! #geekingout

[mr.bernham]

I think we should start a new thread - BUT - the rule should be that we offer several 'points of diversion' for us to all work on.

Eg/

Everything the same UNTIL Alexandria 1928

Everything the same UNTIL Vienna 1964

Everything the same UNTIL Denver 1976

there are so many options ! #geekingout

That's a real game changer with Denver '76!

[Quaker2001]

Gosh - 9/11 only months after the city was awarded the 2008 Games would have been like the London bombings after the 2012 announcement - only on another level of intensity.

I still think Sydney would have held onto 2000 if Athens had 1996.

Perhaps if the USA was still that interested in hosting the Olympics again soon after 1984 then we might have had a NYC/ Chicago/ Atlanta...Minneapolis 2004 Olympics.

Not quite. Here's my alternate timeline if Athens wins 1996...

1998 Winter - Salt Lake - They only missed out by 4 votes coming after Atlanta. Take that out of the equation and this one goes to SLC

2000 Summer - Beijing - Still the same 2 at the top, but similar logic here.. Beijing only lost by 2 votes, so remove Nagano from the equation and we have our first Chinese Olympics when many predicted it would originally happen

2002 Winter - Sion - Time to return to Europe. Probably would have been them and Ostersund battling it out. Nagano backs off due to Japan's hopes of hosting the 2002 World Cup

2004 Summer - Rome - I agree with Rols.. 3 straight losses has dispritied the Australians and this one becomes a battle of the Europeans, although it's not quite the cream of the crop in terms of choices. Rome wins it.

2006 Winter - Nagano - Japan tries for a 3rd time and this time they succed.. Torino is obviously out of consideration thanks to the Rome win 2 years prior

2008 Summer - New York City - Okay, so I'm biased here, but remember that NYC was targeting a 2008 Olympics and that was after Atlanta. It would have been 10 years since Salt Lake and it's time to return to North America. Toronto thinks about entering this race, but knows their odds against an NYC bid are slim.

2010 Winter - ???? - Take your pick of European cities. 1 of them gets it.

2012 Summer - Sydney - Australia finally decides to jump back in the game and wins it, beating out some stiff European competition

2014 Winter - Vancouver - Knowing it will be awhile before the Summer Olympics return to North America, the Winter Olympics fall easily into Canada's lap

2016 Summer - Paris/London - 2016 becomes the battle of the European All Stars. Take your pick, 1 of these 2 gets it.

2018 Winter - Salzburg - No Sochi in the running due to the 2018 World Cup, so Salzburg comes away with the win

2020 Summer - Rio de Janeiro - South America gets their first Olympics at long last

So there's your timeline.. Quaker's alternate Olympic universe. I like to think most, if not all of these, are fairly plausible following an Athens 1996 win. Either way, it just goes to show that 1 ripple in the timeline of Olympic host cities could change virtually everything that followed.

That's a real game changer with Denver '76!

The key question there is who would have stepped up and hosted the 1980 Winter Olympics. Lake Placid was the only option. If Denver had hosted `76, it's anyone's guess what happens in 1980.

[runningrings]

If you propose that Sydney hosts 2012 - and that 2016 is between Paris and London... I'd be willing to bet Paris would have an edge over London for 2016 based on the unlikely event that two Anglosphere Commonwealth cities would host in succession. Can you imagine the handover from Sydney to London. At least you could employ half the unemployed, sunburnt, 20-something population English population of Bondi in the handover ceremony.

[Quaker2001]

If you propose that Sydney hosts 2012 - and that 2016 is between Paris and London... I'd be willing to bet Paris would have an edge over London for 2016 based on the unlikely event that two Anglosphere Commonwealth cities would host in succession. Can you imagine the handover from Sydney to London. At least you could employ half the unemployed, sunburnt, 20-something population English population of Bondi in the handover ceremony.

Very fair point. So give 2016 to Paris. London waits until at least 2024

[mr.bernham]

My predictions from '76 - '24

1976- Denver/Steamboat

1978- Moscow

1980- Nango and Tokyo

1984- Los Angeles/Sarajevo

1988- London/Munich

1992- Athens/Lillehammer

1994- Calgary

1996- Sydney

1998- Turin

2000- Beijing

2002- Sochi

2004- New York City

2006- Pyeongchang

2008- Paris

2010- Vancouver

2012- Istanbul

2014- Sochi

2016- Rio

2018- Munich

2020- Sydney

2022- Harbin

2024- Durban

[runningrings]

Whats with Moscow 1978? And Tokyo 1980? A Cold War development we should know about?

And why is Athens hosting 1992? I mean, why would they go to all that effort, THAT much earlier than they had to - when it wasn't even their 'symbolic' year to stage the event?

And Sochi 2002 and 2014? The point of this exercise is to consider realistic alternatives to current history - not throw about locations and dates non-adhoc without any explanation. Sorry to be blunt, but I can't see any logic in your list.

[mr.bernham]

Whats with Moscow 1978? And Tokyo 1980? A Cold War development we should know about?

And why is Athens hosting 1992? I mean, why would they go to all that effort, THAT much earlier than they had to - when it wasn't even their 'symbolic' year to stage the event?

And Sochi 2002 and 2014? The point of this exercise is to consider realistic alternatives to current history - not throw about locations and dates non-adhoc without any explanation. Sorry to be blunt, but I can't see any logic in your list.

You are right on that. I was struggling a bit trying to come up with cities. Denver hosting makes things very confusing.

[Quaker2001]

You are right on that. I was struggling a bit trying to come up with cities. Denver hosting makes things very confusing.

Try and base it on who bid around when. Be careful where you're throwing out cities for the sake of throwing out cities. Like rings said, there should be some logic behind it. In addition to having Sochi twice, you have Sydney on there twice (1996 and 2020). Plus, Munich 1988 for a Winter Olympics? Where'd you pull that one from? And Vancouver 2010 after Calgary 1994 with no U.S. Winter host in between?

It's definitely hard to project this one from Denver, especially with what to do with 1980. But what I said earlier about a ripple in the timeline.. that only applies if something happens to alter the progression of hosts. Otherwise, history probably plays out largely as it did.