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Athensfan

USA 2024

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Now that the USOC has officially closed the door on 2020, 2024 offers the next opportunity for American Summer Games.

Clearly, the greatest threat to American Summer Games would be yet another edition of the Winter Games. As I have argued in many other threads, Summer Games would reinvigorate the Olympic movement in the United States far more than Winter Games. The Summer Games draw larger audiences, American athletes perform better at Summer Games, Summer Games have the potential to yield more revenue than Winter Games and Summer Games generate more enthusiasm than Winter Games.

If the US were to host Winter Games in either 2022 or 2026, it is probable that the next North American Summer Games would be held in Canada -- potentially forcing the United States to wait until the 40s or 50s for Summer Games on home soil. In this age of ever-shrinking attention spans and an ever-broadening buffet of entertainment options, I question whether American appetites for the Olympics could survive a 50-year gap between domestic Summer Games.

It is also worth considering the fact that the last American Olympics were Winter Games (Salt Lake 2002). Not only that, apart from North America, no continent in the history of the Olympic Games has hosted back to back Winter Games without an intervening Summer Games (Salt Lake City 2002, Vancouver 2010). (The only possible exception to this would be Sarajevo 1984 - Albertville 1992. It hardly seems a fair comparison considering that Barcelona was selected as the 1992 Summer host at the same IOC session during which Albertville was chosen as the Winter host.)

If the US were to host another Winter Games in 2022 or 2026 that would make three Winter Games on a single continent without an intervening Summer Games -- an occurrence that would be totally unprecedented in Olympic history.

There is no guarantee that a 2024 bid would find an easy path and certainly no guarantee that it would be victorious, but if the US settles for Winter Games yet again, the wait for Summer Games could feel interminable and damage could be done to the Olympic movement -- not only in the United States, but globally.

Perhaps the greatest external challenge to an American bid for the 2024 Games would come from a South African challenger. As the 2016 race showed, the IOC is committed to exploring new frontiers -- and rightly so. And yet, as the world's great democratic experiment, as a nation founded not on ethnicity, but on the founding principle of freedom for all, the United States still has a great deal to offer the Olympic movement.

The United States of the last decade is not representative of who we really are. The next American Summer Games will be an opportunity to redefine ourselves as the country that is committed to equality and freedom for all. It is my hope that we will continue to grow as a nation and that the IOC will be eager to return to the United States of America -- not just because we are a nation blessed with incredible wealth and diversity -- but because the key ingredients of the Olympic movement are embedded deeply in the DNA of our country.

I just stumbled across the following musings about a possible Chicago bid for the 2024 Games:

http://featuresblogs.chicagotribune.com/theskyline/2011/08/chicago-2024-with-no-us-bid-for-the-2020-summer-olympics-we-look-forward-to-the-citys-next-chance-fo.html

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Im not going to lie.

You make a valid point.

However 2028 is a possibility if 2024 goes to south africa.

But "we are a nation blessed with incredible wealth"

Currently i think it would be adventagious to not blow 100 million on a olympic bid which won't guarentee the hosting. And even if it does it will cost in excess of billions.

Although it would help the olympic movement if it went back to USA i think in the current economic state it isnt the best choice

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Im not going to lie.

You make a valid point.

However 2028 is a possibility if 2024 goes to south africa.

But "we are a nation blessed with incredible wealth"

Currently i think it would be adventagious to not blow 100 million on a olympic bid which won't guarentee the hosting. And even if it does it will cost in excess of billions.

Although it would help the olympic movement if it went back to USA i think in the current economic state it isnt the best choice

It's important to note that Chicago's bid was 100% financed privately, so no need to worry about the US paying for bids. Of course, any host city would certainly need help from the local and federal governments to pay for infrastructure upgrades and security.

I too, want the US to host a summer games before a winter, but I can see the USOC bidding for 2022, and European members voting for the US out of sympathy for the last two crushing defeats, or to strategically get them out of the game for hosting a SOG in the nearer future. So in that respect, I don't want the US to host in 2022 or 2026.

On the other hand, if the US doesn't put forth a winter games bid, past continental rotation alone would put the next "chances" of a summer games in the Americas in 2036. That is still a long way off, and would be 14 years from hosting a Winter Games in 2022, so that would not be insurmountable to comprehend the US hosting in both 2022 and 2036. Of course, Toronto becomes a big threat to snatch a summer games before the US.

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2028 is Tokyo? The "8" pattern is going strong and Asia is likely.

2024 is a race between Toronto/USA.

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The Summer Games draw larger audiences, American athletes perform better at Summer Games,

Totally NOT TRUE. Let's just go by measured US audiences for the last set of Opening Ceremonies. And I will use OC numbers because those attract the largest number of viewers per Games, and those watching actual games content proportionately follows:

1. Salt Lake 02 Opening - 48% share* - 45.6 million US households watched it

2. Atlanta 1996 Opening - 40% share - 39.8 million

3. Beijing 2008 (highest non-US-based Games) - 37% share - 34.2 million

4. Vancouver 2010 - 30% share - 32.6 million

*share is percentage of total TV audience watching that particular time.

Most watched Olympic moments in the US market:

#6 - the Nancy Kerrigan-Tonya Harding short program duel, Lillehammer 1994 -- a WINTER Games telecast

#34 - the Nancy Kerrigan-Tonya Harding long program duel -- aNOTHER WINTER Games telecast

In the top 45 single event telecasts (with like 20 Super Bowls thrown in there, final episodes of MASH, CHeers, Roots, etc., etc. on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-watched_television_broadcasts#United_States, there is NOT one Summer Games event -- not any Michael Johnson, Usain Bolt, Michael Phelps or Mark Spitz contested events in the top 45 most watched single TV events in the last 40 years! So how can you make the claim that Summer Games draw larger audiences? If it seems it does, it's because there are DOUBLE the number of sports in a SOG, therefore more hours of telecast, and a SOGs generally has larger stadia than the Winter arenas, therefore of course LARGER cumulative seating capacity. A number of Winter events like the ski-jumping, the alpines, the biathlons, the luge-bobsled events are held in OPEN fields without seating -- but you've certainly seen the thousands of paying spectators who cram in there. If you were to be honest and accurate, I would say those are many, many thousands that, percentage-wise, can compare with the indoor-seated summer sports.

So both by (i) measured telecasts of WOG vs. SOG, the WOGs attract LARGER TV numbers, especially for a US-based Winter Games; and (2) if we had all the actual live-gate attendance numbers of the various sports, the Winter attendance receipts will STACK UP neck-in-neck with Summer events. So, how can you really say that the Summer Games draw larger audiences than the Winter Games? FALSE on both counts.

US athletes perform better at summer? So what you're saying is that the US winter athletes who have won medals are NOT the same world-class athletes as the summer ones who also won? You're so full of bullsh*t, Ath. Stop insulting and devaluing Winter athletes. Their efforts are just as valid as their summer counterparts. They expend the same sweat and actually face MORE DANGEROUS situations than the summer sports.

Again, on the surface, it would seem that US athletes do SLIGHTLY better at Summer Games. But it only appears that way because there are DOUBLE THE number of sports contested in a SOG vs. a WOG. I'm just not too jazzed at the moment to do a detailed, comparative study of recent US athletic performances in a WOG v. SOG, I am sure they are pretty darn close. So, again, there appears to be a higher proportion of participation. Everything is proportional.

$$ Yields. In terms of yield for dollars -- just say for 100 U.S. bodies assigned to a SOG (athletes, hours expended - cost of training invested by the USOC; actual Games workers; all the creative people who worked for the sponsors, the commercials; the caterers, etc.); and let's assign 45 bodies for a WOG (since that's about the correct proportion) -- against the dollars assigned by the IOC to a certain Games. Let's compare back-to-back Summer vs. Winter Games...and I'm using these numbers because the take of the USOC is the same (I think the contested 12.75%) per Games:

Athens - US$793 million v. $613 million for Torino (77% of the summer)

Beijing - $894 million v. $820 million for Vancouver (that's for a neighboring location) (92%)

So what the USOC earned for Torino was 77% of what it made for Athens; 92% for Vancouver vs. what it made for Beijing -- for 45 bodies v. 100 bodies invested for Summer. So, that is a phenomenal return for what it invests in a Winter Games vs. a SUmmer Games.

So how can you again say that the Summer Games earn more for the USOC and the advertisers than the Winter Games? Wrong again. Dollar for dollar, erg per erg invested in an athlete's sweat and training, the Winter figures yield MORE for the US, its athletes and its sponsors than for a Summer Games.

Edited by baron-pierreIV

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The US has also never gone more than 28 years without an Olympics of any kind, if anyone's keeping score. Following Salt Lake, the US has until 2030 to host in order to keep it this way. If the US wants a WOG, one of 2022 or 2026 is almost certainly theirs. A SOG is possible but no guarantee.

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Currently i think it would be adventagious to not blow 100 million on a olympic bid which won't guarentee the hosting. And even if it does it will cost in excess of billions.

Although it would help the olympic movement if it went back to USA i think in the current economic state it isnt the best choice

The vote for 2024 is 6 years away. The Games are 13 years away. I'm not talking about "blowing 100 million" tomorrow.

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The Winter Games generate much more interest then the summer games. The summer games have a shitload of boring sports :lol:.

But the truth is they do generate more revenue then the winter games.

I would rather see a winter games in our time zone next then a summer games, because of Rio. (so lets hope the USA wins 2022 or 2026).

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The US has also never gone more than 28 years without an Olympics of any kind, if anyone's keeping score. Following Salt Lake, the US has until 2030 to host in order to keep it this way. If the US wants a WOG, one of 2022 or 2026 is almost certainly theirs. A SOG is possible but no guarantee.

Unless we bid with Denver... (according to Baron) :lol:

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I too, want the US to host a summer games before a winter, but I can see the USOC bidding for 2022, and European members voting for the US out of sympathy for the last two crushing defeats, or to strategically get them out of the game for hosting a SOG in the nearer future. So in that respect, I don't want the US to host in 2022 or 2026.

On the other hand, if the US doesn't put forth a winter games bid, past continental rotation alone would put the next "chances" of a summer games in the Americas in 2036. That is still a long way off, and would be 14 years from hosting a Winter Games in 2022, so that would not be insurmountable to comprehend the US hosting in both 2022 and 2036. Of course, Toronto becomes a big threat to snatch a summer games before the US.

Soaring, I really think you need to loosen your grip on this 2036 idea. I understand your reasoning and it is sound, but there are a million other things that could happen between now and then to shake things up. It is not a foregone conclusion that if the US doesn't go for 2022 they'll have to wait for 2036. Can you see the US putting for strong bids for both 2024 and 2028 and losing both? I just do not see that happening.

If the US goes for 2022, it will solely be because they are unwilling to wait another 2-6 years. To me, that seems extremely unwise.

Given the IOC's desire to rotate the Games and the number of cities clamoring to host, I don't see any possible way that the US can win 2022 and 2036. 2022 would postpone American Summer Games until the 40s at least.

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Soaring, I really think you need to loosen your grip on this 2036 idea. I understand your reasoning and it is sound, but there are a million other things that could happen between now and then to shake things up. It is not a foregone conclusion that if the US doesn't go for 2022 they'll have to wait for 2036. Can you see the US putting for strong bids for both 2024 and 2028 and losing both? I just do not see that happening.

If the US goes for 2022, it will solely be because they are unwilling to wait another 2-6 years. To me, that seems extremely unwise.

Given the IOC's desire to rotate the Games and the number of cities clamoring to host, I don't see any possible way that the US can win 2022 and 2036. 2022 would postpone American Summer Games until the 40s at least.

OK, grip has been loosened... :)

My only point is that if we go off recent history alone, 2036 is the next logical time N. America would be in the best position to host. Of course there are a number of scenarios where the US could win 2024, 2028 or 2032. It is kind of wide open, but all I was saying is that if the US won 2022, it would not automatically eliminate them for 2036 (which could be the next time they host anyway).

I think the USOC should certainly consider a summer bid for 2024 (especially if RSA doesn't win) or 2028 only if the US doesn't host in 2022 or 2028.

Edited by Soaring

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OK, grip has been loosened... :)

My only point is that if we go off recent history alone, 2036 is the next logical time N. America would be in the best position to host. Of course there are a number of scenarios where the US could win 2024, 2028 or 2032. It is kind of wide open, but all I was saying is that if the US won 2022, it would not automatically eliminate them for 2036 (which could be the next time they host anyway).

I think the USOC should certainly consider a summer bid for 2024 (especially if RSA doesn't win) or 2028 only if the US doesn't host in 2022 or 2028.

I just have to say -- I really appreciate your mellow, gracious response. Too many of us (myself included) can go off half-cocked, defending ourselves left right and center. Thanks for being so level-headed. I mean it sincerely.

Still not sure that 2036 could happen in tandem with 2022 though.....

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The Winter Games generate much more interest then the summer games.

If you live in a tundra, like Canada.

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If you live in a tundra, like Canada.

Amen. Of course Canadians prefer Winter Games -- they're much better at them. The same could probably be said of the likes of Norway....

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Given the IOC's desire to rotate the Games and the number of cities clamoring to host, I don't see any possible way that the US can win 2022 and 2036. 2022 would postpone American Summer Games until the 40s at least.

Someone enlighten me here.. Torino and Rome could easily be selected as hosts 14 years apart in a continent crowded with potential host countries but the United States on a continent with 2, maybe 3 suitable host countries can't do it? I don't even have to jump into past precedent for that one.. a Rome 2020 win pretty much sets that one up on its own to say that 2022-2036 is certainly possible.

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Someone enlighten me here.. Torino and Rome could easily be selected as hosts 14 years apart in a continent crowded with potential host countries but the United States on a continent with 2, maybe 3 suitable host countries can't do it? I don't even have to jump into past precedent for that one.. a Rome 2020 win pretty much sets that one up on its own to say that 2022-2036 is certainly possible.

There's a big difference. The US has hosted more Olympics than any other country. They're also the only country to host four Olympics in a 22-year period. The IOC clearly feels the Americans have gotten more than their fair share. Plus, Toronto is waiting in the wings to bid for the next North American Games and would become the heir apparent if the US hosted in 2022 or 2026. Finally, Torino is consistently mentioned as a strike against Rome's 2020 candidacy. Rome hasn't won just yet....

2022 and 2036 aren't impossible, but I'd say it's very far from being a safe bet.

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There's a big difference. The US has hosted more Olympics than any other country. They're also the only country to host four Olympics in a 22-year period. The IOC clearly feels the Americans have gotten more than their fair share. Plus, Toronto is waiting in the wings to bid for the next North American Games and would become the heir apparent if the US hosted in 2022 or 2026. Finally, Torino is consistently mentioned as a strike against Rome's 2020 candidacy. Rome hasn't won just yet....

2022 and 2036 aren't impossible, but I'd say it's very far from being a safe bet.

So you've gone from "I don't see any possible way" to "Still not sure that could happen" to "far from being a safe bet."

I'm not saying it's likely, but I wouldn't rule it out as a possibility. And if I'm the USOC, I wouldn't simply sit out the 2022 if I think I can win that one just to increase the chances that maybe a decade later they'll have a shot at winning. Toronto is the biggest threat to a US summer games. Without them, there's not much of anywhere else the IOC can go if they want the games back in North America. Now if the U.S. doesn't get 2022, then I'd say 2026 could be a little more of a roadblock to getting an Olympics here. Even still, I think we're all thinking way too far down the line to make assumptions on an Olympics where the bid process won't even formally begin for another 16 years.

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So you've gone from "I don't see any possible way" to "Still not sure that could happen" to "far from being a safe bet."

I'm just responding to the various opposing arguments. No, I did not use the exact same verbiage every time. I don't see any of my statements as contradictory. Technically ALL things are possible. It's possible that the US will never host the Olympics ever again. It's possible the world will end in 2012 with the Mayan calendar. Perhaps the first statement is a little hyperbolic, but I think my position is totally consistent.

Let me be clear, I see a 2022/2036 double as HIGHLY UNLIKELY and I think it would be foolhardy for the USOC to bank on that hypothetical scenario as a way of justifying a bid for 2022.

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If you live in a tundra, like Canada.

No one lives in the "tundra". Considering I am the first generation of my family born here (they were born in a "equatorial country") you'd have to wonder why I like winter sports. All winter sports (minus curling :lol: ) are pretty entertaining thus generate interest. The Summer games have synchro swimming, rhytimic gymnastics etc. Fun fact: The curling bronze medal game attracted the most audience for China I believe in 2010!!

Amen. Of course Canadians prefer Winter Games -- they're much better at them. The same could probably be said of the likes of Norway....

Off course we are better at winter games, but the Soccer a summer sport is the most popular here.

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Chicago 2024 :D

Second amen. Although I am very mixed about any US city entering a race against an African bid...

Edited by Soaring

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Second amen. Although I am very mixed about any US city entering a race against an African bid...

The only thing you can say is that we've got 4 years to work out a strategy. I think you are right to suggest that the US develop plans for 2024 and wait to see what happens with South Africa. 2028 would be the backup plan.

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