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Will there be a late bidder in the 2020 race?


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35 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you think there will be a late bidder in the 2020 race?

    • Yes
      18
    • No
      17


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Besides, all the turmoil caused by FIFA for choosing Qatar for 2022 makes me believe that the IOC would not grant them any SOGs in the near future.

This factor, I think, will play in heavily, at least for the time being. Not sure what it might be like 2 years from now.

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What investigation? FIFA certainly aren't carrying one out! :lol:

Really :/ that s a big corruption while many people talking about it. İ dont see ioc will make the same fault. At least for 2020 and 24

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That's a very good point. Though I don't see them winning and I see them getting passed again with 4 cities inside the desired schedule.

Besides, all the turmoil caused by FIFA for choosing Qatar for 2022 makes me believe that the IOC would not grant them any SOGs in the near future.

Oh I know that. But Doha's entry will be a spoiler for Istanbul in the VERY CRUCIAL 1st round. As we all know, you need all the votes you can get for the first round. As it is, with Tokyo there, the Asian votes would be split -- originally between Tokyo and Istanbul -- with Istanbul counting on the Arab votes. I just looked at the IOC roster, it seems there are like 15 islamic voting members* (I think like 5 African islamic-sounding names, including Nawal and the other Moroccan delegate), but those islamic votes are Arab sheiks. So Doha could open with 6/7 votes (not counting Tamin Al-Hathani's vote. He is the Qatari) already. We don't know how the Asian Pacific votes will lean; but just granted they will go to Tokyo. Therefore, Istanbul will have to pick up the other American, Caribbean and African votes to get it through to Round Two. But the non-aligned votes are always hard to predict because those guys/gals will be quite cagey and non-committal until the end. Usually.

*five (5) HRH Arab princes (Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar & Saudi Arabia) / (1) princess from the UAE; one (1) Malaysian prince

Among the non-Arab, but islamic by their names, IOC members: (incredibly) 2 ea from Egypt and Morocco (but 1 woman from each country!!), 1 Pakistani civilian; and maybe 3 or 4 Africans. And there may be one or 2 that I missed.

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If the IOC accepts Doha as an applicant, I fully expect them to be candidates. The only indication the IOC gave for not making the short list last time was due to their dates. If they approve of their dates now, but then don't short list them, it will be a big issue. Especially since FIFA selected them to host the WC, but somehow they can't manage an Olympics. Of course the biggest issue is the weather and small size of their country.

Also, I can't imagine them not short listing Istanbul AND Doha. The Muslim world will be up in arms, saying the IOC only eliminates Muslim countries.

If Doha is able to be an applicant, I expect all bids to be shortlisted.

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If the IOC accepts Doha as an applicant, I fully expect them to be candidates. The only indication the IOC gave for not making the short list last time was due to their dates. If they approve of their dates now, but then don't short list them, it will be a big issue. Especially since FIFA selected them to host the WC, but somehow they can't manage an Olympics. Of course the biggest issue is the weather and small size of their country.

Also, I can't imagine them not short listing Istanbul AND Doha. The Muslim world will be up in arms, saying the IOC only eliminates Muslim countries.

If Doha is able to be an applicant, I expect all bids to be shortlisted.

They're in. It just makes a lot of work for Istanbul...but Mike Lee must be a happy man.

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This factor, I think, will play in heavily, at least for the time being. Not sure what it might be like 2 years from now.

Considering the SLC scandal STILL gets brought up regularly, I don't think two years is going to cool suspicions and outrage over Qatar 2022.

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I can't believe Doha thinks they have a chance at hosting an olympics. Unless of course the IOC is willing to take bribes.

The saner heads there probably don't think so. But it's all an exercise for the Royal family, and by doing this, the IOC is just humoring them. After all, another bids means more $$ for consultants and the caterers of Lausanne. ;)

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istanbuls bid was higher at 2008 and 2004 races. and it droppped to 4,8 at 2012. it was funny.

Yeah, I was just gonna say. I can't remember, & I don't have that information right in front of me, but certainly Istanbul must've scored higher for 2008 in order to have been short-listed. But then all of the sudden, they drop to 4.8 just 4 years later? :blink:

It's like Madrid. For 2012, their bid was rated as "excellent" by the Final Evaluation Report. But for 2016, the Spanish bid all of the sudden "doesn't fully understand all of the Games concept"!

It's all politics, plain & simple. It's depends what cities/countries that are on any particular Olympic applicant bid roster that excites with frezny (&/or doesn't) those finicky old fogies over in Swiss-land.

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So that's another proof that the IOC reports are not very realiable... Anybody knows what Istanbul had scored with previous bids?

no idea :(

but if someone finds them i will appreciate a lot :)

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So that's another proof that the IOC reports are not very realiable... Anybody knows what Istanbul had scored with previous bids?

I have to say, the evaluations for 2018 seemed much more even-handed than those for 2016. At least that commission turned over a new leaf....

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So now that we are up to 5 bid cities

WHAT IS YOUR EVALUATION OF EACH CITY?

I think We have one of the most wide open races we've had in a long time. No one is exactly a favorite.

How do you know no one is exactly a favorite? Did you take a poll?

But I think if you went by just the 1st round votes, Rome (or Madrid) could swing a plurality in that vote.

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So now that we are up to 5 bid cities

WHAT IS YOUR EVALUATION OF EACH CITY?

I think We have one of the most wide open races we've had in a long time. No one is exactly a favorite.

Problably Madrid will top the evaluation, then Tokyo, Rome, Istanbul and Doha

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So now that we are up to 5 bid cities

WHAT IS YOUR EVALUATION OF EACH CITY?

I think We have one of the most wide open races we've had in a long time. No one is exactly a favorite.

How does that question fit with this thread?

Do you mean, how will each city be impacted by the global economy?

If so, here's my belief:

Doha -- money is a non-issue and they'll be just fine even if the rest of the world falls apart (but their other detracting issues are so significant that I still can't see them winning).

Istanbul -- probably not much different for them whether the economy is up or down.

Tokyo -- more vulnerable to global economic swings, but so committed to answering Beijing and staging great Games that they would pull it off no matter what.

Rome/Madrid -- both extremely vulnerable to a down economy. Because of rampant Italian corruption, I suspect they would still get through the Games somehow no matter how much they have to cook the books and frustrate the public. As for Madrid, if Spain's economic situation deteriorates enough it could definitely adversely affect the quality of the Games and I think the people of Spain would have more of a voice in demanding cuts to the Olympic budget.

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I have to say, the evaluations for 2018 seemed much more even-handed than those for 2016. At least that commission turned over a new leaf....

I don't think so. And neither did neige, the only level-headed & mostly objective, staunch Annecy supporter here. He was constantly citing that the 2018 Final Evaluation Report clearly duped Annecy. That the French bid lacked in logistical areas, even though they have one of the greatest resorts/areas for Winter Sports on the planet.

And that Games "sustainability" were a focal point of the bid that the IOC harps upon, but that aspect didn't matter much when it came to Annecy. Munich was critiqued but to a much lower level. While PyeongChang hardly got any negatives at all. I didn't see too much of a difference with it from the 2016 F.E.R.

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I don't think so. And neither did neige, the only level-headed & mostly objective, staunch Annecy supporter here. He was constantly citing that the 2018 Final Evaluation Report clearly duped Annecy. That the French bid lacked in logistical areas, even though they have one of the greatest resorts/areas for Winter Sports on the planet.

And that Games "sustainability" were a focal point of the bid that the IOC harps upon, but that aspect didn't matter much when it came to Annecy. Munich was critiqued but to a much lower level. While PyeongChang hardly got any negatives at all. I didn't see too much of a difference with it from the 2016 F.E.R.

Hmmm. I admit I didn't read 2018 as closely as 2016, but to my eyes it seemed like all three were very close. I didn't think PC was favored over Munich. It felt like a dead heat to me. Annecy was bringing up the rear, but they certainly didn't get slammed. I felt that the report placed them behind by a fairly slim margin -- which seems accurate.

There was nothing as glaring as the marginalization of Rio's crime issues and travel times or the attack on Chicago's transportation.

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Quite honstly, I think this is a very evenly matched race at this stage. I can't see any obvious standout. Istanbul seems to have popular imagination at the moment, but I think that's the novelty factor still (especially with the ever-popular Sth African dream not an option). But I can't imagine that Rome's campaigning, lobbying and support will be anything but strong. Madrid? Well, on the one hand there's still the Barcelona factor and I wonder if they're support topped out last time - on the other, I've learned too often not to under-estimate Spain and at 28 years, maybe the statute of limitations on a Spanish bid is running out finally.

Maybe only Tokyo (timing) and Doha (the 2022 WC blow-back) would I count out.

I wouldn't put too much emphasis on financial crisis fallout. A games might be expensive, but they're still a drop in a bucket when you are talking about hundreds of billions in a national economy. At most, it might hinder the likes of Rome's and Madrid's ability to build local support and enthusiasm, but I can't see it having much concrete effect beyond that.

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