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Baron, do u think Paris would give 2024 a shot even let's say Rome wins 2020?

I hope they're NOT that foolish; especially if Durban were in there for 2024. My feeling is the French and, at least the Sarkozy administration at this stage, are not all that Olympic-gung-ho right now. And I don't blame them. It'd be different if they really had a great Olympic stadium-Village plan close to the heart of the City. That would make them the bid to beat; but that doesn't seem to be in the cards, and I think they are aware of it. If Rome wins 2020, Paris may have to wait for 2028 or after.

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Well if 2020 does go to Europe, 2024 is really between North America and Africa and another Tokyo bid.

2024 shortlist looking like this

Toronto

New York City/Chicago

Cape Town/Durban

Istanbul (if they don't win 2020)

Mexican city? Monterrey? Guadalajara?

Paris(would they still bid after a 2020 European host?

I think it's more likely that Tokyo would win the 2020 bid if Africa is not going to bid.

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Oh well. 2024 will be better timing anyway. Durban is not even close to being a lock.

Yeah that's what I always thought.

Yes, the IOC is encouraging them to bid but who doesn't want to see an African city bid for an Olympics? It would be nice to see but I don't think they'll win on their first bid since 1997. It's been 14 years! I think they'll fare much better with voting results this time around.

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Oh well. 2024 will be better timing anyway. Durban is not even close to being a lock.

Exactly.

South Africa and UAE combined won one silver medal at the 2024 games. SO its possible, besides Toronto likely will present the best bid, but you never know.

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I think it's a given now 2020 will go to Europe (sorry Istanbul).

That means 2024 will be South Africa/Asia/NA. I still think SA has a very very high chance of winning, more so than any current running bid's chance for 2020. Yes we all want to see an African bid but the way IOC is hugging SA's leg is unprecedented!! Honestly I think only a US bid for 2024 can dethrone SA, that is if USA don't go for 2022.

For 2028, I think as always it has Asia written all over it!

Of course stranger things have happened. I think Toronto will bid in the 20s but I don't see us win until the 30s. Well, 2020 was some what of a long shot too so... I just wish to see a Games in my beloved Toronto before I am TOO old.

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Watch this news segment about the possible Toronto 2020 bid.

Listen to what the newscaster says at the end of the segment. Do you think the group lobbying a bid will push forward because of the high support for a Toronto 2020 bid?

http://www.globaltoronto.com/vast+majority+of+gta+residents+support+a+2020+olympic+bid+new+poll/6442462684/story.html?video=true

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Watch this news segment about the possible Toronto 2020 bid.

Listen to what the newscaster says at the end of the segment. Do you think the group lobbying a bid will push forward because of the high support for a Toronto 2020 bid?

http://www.globaltoronto.com/vast+majority+of+gta+residents+support+a+2020+olympic+bid+new+poll/6442462684/story.html?video=true

I had the same thoughts too. However, its unlikely. We can hope though!

That's good therapy. Just keep repeating it at least 3x a day.

Of course Durban isn't a lock. Just because Rogge says so (he will be out of power by 2015). Look what happened to Greece (who is similar to South Africa in terms of economy).

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^And you think that the desire for an African Olympics stops with Rogge? The next IOC president will be just as keen to want to go there. And if South Africa can handle a World Cup, then they can handle an Olympics. South Africa is not Greece.

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^And you think that the desire for an African Olympics stops with Rogge? The next IOC president will be just as keen to want to go there. And if South Africa can handle a World Cup, then they can handle an Olympics. South Africa is not Greece.

But their is the financial risk.

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There's always a financial risk no matter WHO hosts the Games. You think London is enjoying all of their current cost overruns. The Olympics really don't make the host city a profit. And a host city/nation shouldn't be looking at it in that sense. The pay-off is usually in the bigger picture intangibles that could come from hosting.

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With that logic, South Africa shouldn't have gotten the 2010 World Cup. Nor China the 2008 Olympics. Brazil neither for 2016. Nor Seoul in 1988, Sarajevo 1984, Mexico City etc, etc. The social inequality doesn't seem to matter too much to the IOC (nor FIFA), if the geopolitical incentive is greatly there to look the other way.

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That's good therapy. Just keep repeating it at least 3x a day.

If it is Durban, it has a lot of major hurdles to jump. The infrastructure is abysmal, the airport, public transportation, sports infrastructure, roads, bridges. You name it Durban and South Africa as a whole needs it. Billions upon billions of dollars in investments. Oh and hotels, another HUGE issue for Durban especially.

^And you think that the desire for an African Olympics stops with Rogge? The next IOC president will be just as keen to want to go there. And if South Africa can handle a World Cup, then they can handle an Olympics. South Africa is not Greece.

Actually there are plenty of people that have the opposite opinion. The IOC will go to Africa when it is damn well ready to. It waited to go to China and Brazil, it wait to go to India and it will wait to go to South Africa or Morocco when it thinks it is best. I am sure that more IOC members share Nawal's opinion on the matter then yours. And the World Cup and the Olympics are completely different in scope and size. A country hosts the World Cup, a city hosts the Olympics. The pressures on the single city are far greater then ANY world cup day. A typical matchday for a WC means between 50,000 and 75,000 extra people in a city. A typical Olympic Saturday, upwards of 2 million. Or well over half of Durbans metro population. That kind of strain is not easy to handle, especially for a developing city. The infrastructure strain on an Olympic City is unbelievable compared to a world cup match day, and Durban's airport had trouble dealing with a semi-final.

With that logic, South Africa shouldn't have gotten the 2010 World Cup. Nor China the 2008 Olympics. Brazil neither for 2016. Nor Seoul in 1988, Sarajevo 1984, Mexico City etc, etc. The social inequality doesn't seem to matter too much to the IOC (nor FIFA), if the geopolitical incentive is greatly there to look the other way.

Mexico City shouldn't have hosted 68 and that is probably way the IOC has always taken its time to go to emerging countries. Brazil's economy is 7 times as large as South Africa's and its HDI is also a point higher. Very meaningful things when thinking of an Olympic host. China's HDI is also higher and its economy is 15x bigger. The IOC did not say, ok we have to go to South America its time to go there and just pick randomly. They picked a city in a country with the population, development and economic resources to host. If South America did not have Brazil, they would not have the Olympics. This rush to annoit South Africa as a host is ridiculous. When and if they are ever ready they will host. 30 years ago it was assumed Buenos Aires and Argentina would be the first South American host, how times have changed. South Africa has major structure problems, if they can overcome these problems it will be able to host in 2028 or 2032, if not, I am sure that Egypt under better management or Morocco under more liberal current management will steal South Africa's thunder just like Brazil took what many thought would be Argentina's.

And one final point. Poland, Ukraine, Austria, Switzerland, Portugal, Qatar, Thailand, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Belgium and the Netherlands have all hosted major football tournaments in recent times. All of them are incapable of hosting the Olympics.

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If it is Durban, it has a lot of major hurdles to jump. The infrastructure is abysmal, the airport, public transportation, sports infrastructure, roads, bridges. You name it Durban and South Africa as a whole needs it. Billions upon billions of dollars in investments. Oh and hotels, another HUGE issue for Durban especially.

Well, that's why they've held off for at least one round. But I believe they have a master plan and they will get to that if not in 2024, then I am sure at least 2028. It's the likes of Toronto (from a smaller country w/ already 3 OGs to its name) that'll have to wait its turn.

A typical Olympic Saturday, upwards of 2 million. Or well over half of Durbans metro population.

Have you ever been or actually lived thru an Olympics, Faster?

Where did you get that figure? :blink: That would be the greatest mass movements of people in history, over 4 days. I mean how many weeks does it take to move people to and from the refugee camps of Darfur?

I believe the MAX # of people who would come to a 21st century Olympic city and stay for a few days would be an est. 750,000 and that's stretching it. The 750,000 would be spread out in groups over the entire 17 days Just look at how the tour operators package their Olympic business -- and that's for very well-heeled people. People with lesser means will just come for a mere 3 or 4 days -- and again, nearly all the visitors will be coming in waves.

Show me where you got the 2,000,000 figure. Did China keep an honest count, if they did at all? Remember that maybe for every 100 out-of-towners who come to town, perhaps 25 or so locals leave town to avoid the crowds or rent their houses. Not everybody wants to hang around when the hordes are in town; so there is a net figure of bodies staying in town. It's NOT just bulging because of the influx. There is an uncounted OUTFLUX. So NO WAY would 2,000,000 people come on an "Olympic Saturday." And I've lived in 2 cities that have HOSTED the SOGs, Faster, and nowhere was this clearer than on the freeways during the weekends in LA and Atlanta. The freeways were like ghost towns on the Olympic weekends and I personally lived 1984 and 1996. So that totally blows your "2,000,000" number out of the water.

And one final point. Poland, Ukraine, Austria, Switzerland, Portugal, Qatar, Thailand, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Belgium and the Netherlands have all hosted major football tournaments in recent times. All of them are incapable of hosting the Olympics.

Oh, I'm sure a few of them would prove you wrong, and of those, 4 have actually hosted an Olympic Games of one sort or another.

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These arguments sound kind of familiar to what I was saying about Rio in 2006 and 2007...

Mark my words, if Durban is short listed, they will win it all. Lately, FIFA and the IOC have wanted to go the "new frontier route", and they will certainly not pass up the opportunity to once and for all head the Africa.

Durban has a lot of work to do, but they do have one big piece already in place, and that is the Olympic stadium.

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^And you think that the desire for an African Olympics stops with Rogge? The next IOC president will be just as keen to want to go there. And if South Africa can handle a World Cup, then they can handle an Olympics. South Africa is not Greece.

A desire for an African Olympics doesn't magically make one feasible. The IOC has desired an African Olympics for a long time... but has rejected prior African bids. They wanted one in South America for a long time... the rejected several bids from there before accepting Rio. The IOC doesn't just say, "Oh, we want an African Olympics, here's a bid from somewhere in Africa, let's give it to them." An African city has to put forth a feasible bid.

Note that *South African* hosted the world cup. If the IOC wants to change rules and let South Africa host the Olympics they might be ready. But the Olympics are hosted by a city, and there is no city in South Africa that, on its own, is close to being ready for what the IOC requires. It will take massive building and spending to get there.

You are darn right the South Africa isn't Greece. Greece, for all its financial problems, is still a rich country in the grand scheme of things. Essentially 100% of Greeks have clean water, proper sanitation, electricity on demand, etc. South Africa isn't even close. South Africa has said than in 2020, it's more important to spend money on improving those basic services rather than on Olympic white elephants. What's going to change by 2024? Is South Africa going to be a whole lot wealthier? Is the IOC going to back off some of their expensive requirements?

Will there be an African Olympics? Sure, someday. But the notion that all South Africa has to do is turn in the paperwork and they guaranteed ignores some glaring realities. If that's all it took, we would have already had one.

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