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What if Durban came back at the last minute...


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As far as I know, the countries interested in hosting the 2020 Games have until next week to send the IOC some documents about agreement with the WADA code and proposed dates for the Olympics. That means that if possible candidates like Durban or Doha really want to bid, they can't decide on August 31st, they have to make up their minds now.

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I think once you have effectively said, "We can't afford the Olympic games without sacrificing basic services to our people," you can't jump back in with a bid.

Why not? After spending $10 billion for 8 white elephants, and SPENDING MORE for the next time around, you can't backtrack and say you've rethought your plans?

After all, the whole adventure will cost at least 25% more the next time around...even though expenditures might be spread out a little bit more?

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you can't backtrack and say you've rethought your plans?

You can, but if they said that exactly, it could sound like "we prefer our people not to have basic services and host the Olympics"...

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You can, but if they said that exactly, it could sound like "we prefer our people not to have basic services and host the Olympics"...

Yes, they would have to say and sell it the right way to the citizenry. Maybe there's not enough time but they should've put it to a vote:

- 2020?

- 2024?

- Never?

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Seriously though, it looks like ALL the 2020 Olympic applicant/candidates will be affected by some form of financial impediment or another. South Africa may be being financially predunt on expenditures, but it's not like the others are in THAT much better shape, either.

Spain has an astonishing unemployment rate of nearly 25%, Italy is not that far behind either with their financial burdens. And Japan just had a very expensive & disabling natural disaster that has displaced many Japanese citizens. So kinda finger pointing South Africa's problems isn't going to change any of the major problems that the other candidates will be/are facing as well.

And I agree with Baron, it's not like the next time around (2024 or 2028) is gonna be any easier, it's gonna be even more challenging. So South Africa should really just grab the bull by the horns while they can & just go for it now. The IOC looks like they'd be MORE than happy to have them on the voting table, & I think that they'd very seriously consider giving them the 2020 Games, too, despite what challenges they may have. Cuz again, so does everyone else.

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But unlike Tokyo, Madrid and Rome, Durban has considerable infrastructure shortages. Hotels, public transportation, venues and so much more are needed to bring Durban up to IOC standards then the other 3 cities. Italy and Japan have financial problems, but they also won't have to spend nearly as much to host the Olympics compared to Durban. Rio is miles ahead of Durban in every category and Brazil is miles ahead of South Africa as well. And I trust that Rafa understands the situation better then anyone else here and believe him when he says that there is a considerable challenge ahead and Durban or Cape Town needs to get their head out of their arse and actually look at what the IOC demands and how far they are from it.

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Spain has an astonishing unemployment rate of nearly 25%, Italy is not that far behind either with their financial burdens. And Japan just had a very expensive & disabling natural disaster that has displaced many Japanese citizens. So kinda finger pointing South Africa's problems isn't going to change any of the major problems that the other candidates will be/are facing as well.

You've missed the point a little here I think, though you're right all the potential hosts so far have problems.

People aren't "finger pointing". They're merely pointing out that the South African governement said no to a bid a couple of months back beacuse - and I quote - they'd prefer to focus their public monies on "basic services". A u-turn now will, rightly or wrongly, raise eyebrows.

None of the other bids, by contrast, have made such a statement. They're not opening themselves up to criticism in quite the same way because they've always been adamament a bid is the right thing to do.

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South Africa struggles to provide basic services to its people - water, sanitation, electricity, etc. Spain, Italy, etc. may be facing economic hardships… but their situation in nothing like South Africa's.

But the point I was trying to make is that governments and Olympic officials have to believe - or at least pretend to believe - that hosting the Olympics won't harm to ability to provide services to people. You either need to claim the jobs/tourism/etc. will more than offset the cost, or claim you are such rich it doesn't matter.

South Africa can no longer do that - at least not for 2020. They are a poor country. They have said hosting the Olympics will impair their ability to provide basic services. No matter how out of touch the IOC members may be, they do think of themselves as noble humanitarians. They can't give 2020 to RSA.

If the IOC really wants to bring the Olympics to places like Durban, they have to get serious about cutting the cost. They have to realize that it is the games that make the Olympics great, not the expensive buildings and infrastructure. We need better technology… we are pretty close to perfecting temporary venues that can be disassembled and shipped to the next host city. We need improvements in the living conditions in South Africa. And, quite frankly, we need some time to pass so people can forget those comments on conflict between the games and providing social services.

How long will that take… 4 years? 8? 28? I don't know. But it'll happen.

Personally, I think South Africa as a country will be ready to host the games long before any one city can do it. If IOC really wants the Olympics in places like South Africa, and they want it sooner rather than later, they need to change their vision and allow for such a thing.

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Or they (IOC) should start paying for some of their grandiose monuments...or maybe they should get into the business of backing bonds if that's what it was it'll take to pay for those monuments?

BTW, can't RSA find a real white (i.e., albino) elephant? Stuff it and have that serve as one of the venues? :lol:

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I think Durban would be a great candidate.

My issue remains, whether its Cape Town or Durban. Nobody appears to have come to grips with the Games requirements, and there has been no public or behind the scenes, from what I have seen, understanding of the real cost and requirements for the host city.

If we are to trust articles, and to some extent informal discussion I have had, the fleeting reference to the Olympic bid process, and onerous IOC demands (well beyond FIFA in many regards) is a major concern for me.

I'd like to start getting serious about the Durban bid, in particular the technical aspects, a hotel room shortage of 33,500 from the minimum 40,000 mark, no formal airport to city transport link, congestion around "Olympic precinct"....etc. etc.

The pro's are all there (and amazing if all comes together) but it must worked into a solid proposal beyond the "we have archery fields" and a "velodrome" (entirely new one needed) track. Even the Aquatic Centre requires major works just to host water polo.

If we don't start looking at this, the Working Group in the applicant phase will, and will be less kind. This isn't just an "accommodation" or "transport" discussion, and I'm not implying that there are no solutions but we must start addressing these things and be very frank.

Cape Town "shortlisted" in 1997 with a solid technical proposal, which would not have made a 2012 shortlist, regardless of the respect I have for the full candidature which put together a miracle bid during the city's infancy.

My real concern? Not Durban being able to win, but Durban not making the candidate phase.

Rome (ignoring the major economic crisis which may loom) actually went through a proper and thorough domestic bid process, candidature file and all.

Durban, was not able to benefit from a proper domestic bid process, because it was and is a farce. The real loser in that circus was not Cape Town but Durban i.e. the opportunity to have a full look through all the strengths and weaknesses in a public arena, and relative to the IOC requirements.

Rafa,

I totally agree with you and I think the problem pretty much starts with the venues. Durban's convention center is rather small and includes in its surface the only arena in the city, which fits only 10.000 people. So, at least a new Arena for gymnastics and basketball finals would have to be built. Besides, the ICC cannot fit at once sports and the IBC/MPC. So, another space would have to be build to host sports ranging from fencing and judo to handball and table tennis. Durban has the Olympic Stadium, but that's basically all it has. The Aquatic Center, for instance will end up being considered a new venue rather than an improvement, since analyzing its looks it does not seem possible to upgrade it to the needed capacity.

This is not to mention the transport and accommodation hurdle. The OV would have to be very close to the King's Park Precinct. The train system would have to undergo some serious upgrades, by what I have researched. And a Media Village is a must.

So, there would be a lot to build to allow for such an event to happen there. Investments would be at least the same as in Rio, but probably larger. As I said before, for Durban it will be hard enough to get shortlisted, let alone win it in an European infested race.

My advice is to host the CWGs and use it to test the concept and build up venues and only then consider an actual Olympic bid. Or you can bid with CT, which has a better infrastructure and a history being shortlisted.

But unlike Tokyo, Madrid and Rome, Durban has considerable infrastructure shortages. Hotels, public transportation, venues and so much more are needed to bring Durban up to IOC standards then the other 3 cities. Italy and Japan have financial problems, but they also won't have to spend nearly as much to host the Olympics compared to Durban. Rio is miles ahead of Durban in every category and Brazil is miles ahead of South Africa as well. And I trust that Rafa understands the situation better then anyone else here and believe him when he says that there is a considerable challenge ahead and Durban or Cape Town needs to get their head out of their arse and actually look at what the IOC demands and how far they are from it.

You put here an interesting point. Competition is very tough now. Even Istanbul would jump in front of Durban and would fight with it for the new frontier card. For a long time, I don't think Durban stands a real chance now. There is too much work to be done to raise to a competitive level.

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Rogge's latest speech really irritates me. He basically said, "South Africa, your time is now." It seems clear that he wants the first African Olympics to be part of his legacy whether or not the host nation believes the choice would be fiscally responsible.

The IOC will not pay attention to financial realities until they have no other choice. They want emotion, glamour and spectacle -- pricetag be damned. As white elephants multiply around the globe, the IOC consistently chooses the most expensive candidate for each edition of the Games. They may get away with it for a few cycles more, but pretty soon it's going to come back to haunt them.

For right now, they seem to have a crop of bidders who are willing to throw away 100 million on a bid, despite their own economic woes. That's not going to continue indefinitely. The pattern is not going to shift.

If South Africa can bid for and host 2020 in a manner that is financially responsible, I'm 100% behind them and I hope they win. In fact, I would suggest that the IOC spare the other bidders unnecessary expense and declare the race over.

If SA cannot bid in good conscience, they should stay out of the race. Rogge is wrong to apply so much pressure. It is SA's decision, I hope they will judge their circumstances for themselves and not be persuaded by mere rhetoric.

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If RSA decides not to bid for 2020, they better pray a European city wins. If Tokyo snags 2020, then the sentiment for 2024 to go to Europe will be very high. Europe has NEVER gone more than two cycles without hosting a Summer Olympics.

Maybe sentiment for Africa could override that tradition, but it does make a future bid in 2024 somewhat more challenging IMO.

I agree, Rogge is wanting Africa to host so bad, he could taste it...

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Well, I sure hope the announcement's yes or no, one way or the other.

I dunno, I'm a bit torn over the whole Durban "will they or won't they bid" saga now. On the one hand, yes, I'd love to see South Africa go for it. And, yes, while I was once a sceptic about their chances, I have come to the conclusion the momentum to award it to them is maybe irresistable. Who os us wouldn't like to see a games in Africa in our lifetimes?

But, that's also the rub. I do tend to give Rogge the benefit of the doubt when he is in diplo-speak mode, but this time I'm also uneasy by just how vehemently he's pushing that particular barrow. I mean to say, he's just about done everything short of promising to give Zuma a blow-job if he gives a bid the nod. Which is all very well, but it means that if SASCOC do get the go-ahead to bid, it's just about going to be a one-horse race with Durban set to win by acclamation. If i was on the Roma, Madrid or Tokyo bid-teams, I'd be mighty pissed off that Rogge has really tilted the playing field away from them, even when he's been encouraging them to bid as well.

I really respected the SA Goverment's earlier decision to sit out as dignified, responsible and justifiable. I think Rogge's stepped over the line of being neutral with the pressure he's been bringing to bear on them to reverse that decision.

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Well, it's almost a forgone conclusion now that 2020 is heading Europe's way. You only really have Tokyo in the way, & they're handicapped with PyeongChang 2018. And Paris is really stupid for bowing out (hoping for their 2024 "centennial") now that South Africa has declared that they'll go after 2024 instead.

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Well, it's almost a forgone conclusion now that 2020 is heading Europe's way. You only really have Tokyo in the way, & they're handicapped with PyeongChang 2018. And Paris is really stupid for bowing out (hoping for their 2024 "centennial") now that South Africa has declared that they'll go after 2024 instead.

Agreed. Annency was a complete waste. I don't know what they were thinking.

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Well if South Africa is indeed sitting this one out, it look's like at this point there will only be four cities vying tfor the 2020 Games. I raised the possibility on an earlier thread that there would actually be fewer candidates this time around. I doubt the IOC will even need to do a shortlist for 2020.

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