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Which part mystifies you oh green one? They part about Spain having an unemployement problem? The part about putting people back to wrok being a good thing? Or the part about putting people back to work with other people's money being a really good thing? You might no agree, but I would think you could at least understand it.

As for the previouis posts, if the IOC worried about the people who felt that the Olympics were a financial disaster for the host country, they wouldn't them anywhere. Yet they do.

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It's the IOC that benefits from NBC and McDonalds. Only a portion of that goes to Games costs. It does not cover other infrastructure projects. If the IOC and their sponsors footed the whole bill, no one would complain about the expense of the Games. The IOC wouldn't require government guarantees. Montreal never would have happened.

If you think Madrid is going to get a bunch of free money to play with, you are mistaken. That is exactly the type of thinking that landed Europe in its current predicament.

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If you think Madrid is going to get a bunch of free money to play with, you are mistaken.
London was receiving roughly 560 GBP from the IOC, and 450 GBP in direct sponsorship.

Madrid would be looking at 1 - 1.5 EUR in "free money".

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The point is...Madrid/Spain just had the Olympics 20 years ago when things were going well with Spain. Now they ain't. Tokyo had it some 52 years ago; and they have well, a 'radioactive' problem to take care of. So that leaves a 3rd candidate whose economy is doing well; and has NEVER had the Games. The US was rejected for 2012 and 2016 because it just had 3 Olympic Games in the last 28 years (+ a few other factors). RIo got it, despite everything, because that part of the world, that continent, has never played host--and Rio had already knocked 3x, and has a booming economy to support back-to-back extravaganzas. Istanbul is knocking for the 5th time.

If Istanbul had an economy worse than the PIGS; if it had hosted even just 30 years ago; if it had a small population of 25 million or less, if Istnabul weren't in such a strategic geo position as straddling TWO continents, then Istanbul would not be such a viable candidate. But Istanbul doesn't have those liabilities which both Madrid and Tokyo have. So, if you can't see the forest above the trees, then God help you.

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http://www.elcorreo.com/agencias/20120602/deportes/mas-deportes/alejandro-blanco-supedita-exito-madrid_201206021537.html

Hmm. Alejandro Blanco is beginning to change the narrative from the economy won't affect Madrid 2020 to saying that it will make things very complicated if the economic problems persist. Whilst I still think there is a great deal of misunderstanding about Spain's economic woes (like muddling up liquidity with national debt), there is certainly a change from the tone in May, which ridiculed any suggestion that there would be economic issues around the bid.

I can't decide whether he is preparing the ground for an early exit, or whether he is trying to demonstrate that he doesn't have his head in the sand.

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London was receiving roughly 560 GBP from the IOC, and 450 GBP in direct sponsorship.

Madrid would be looking at 1 - 1.5 EUR in "free money".

In the grand scheme of things that's a drop in the bucket.

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The point is...Madrid/Spain just had the Olympics 20 years ago when things were going well with Spain. Now they ain't. Tokyo had it some 52 years ago; and they have well, a 'radioactive' problem to take care of. So that leaves a 3rd candidate whose economy is doing well; and has NEVER had the Games. The US was rejected for 2012 and 2016 because it just had 3 Olympic Games in the last 28 years (+ a few other factors). RIo got it, despite everything, because that part of the world, that continent, has never played host--and Rio had already knocked 3x, and has a booming economy to support back-to-back extravaganzas. Istanbul is knocking for the 5th time.

If Istanbul had an economy worse than the PIGS; if it had hosted even just 30 years ago; if it had a small population of 25 million or less, if Istnabul weren't in such a strategic geo position as straddling TWO continents, then Istanbul would not be such a viable candidate. But Istanbul doesn't have those liabilities which both Madrid and Tokyo have. So, if you can't see the forest above the trees, then God help you.

There is an argument for Istanbul, but there's also an argument against.

They have far less experience with sports organization than their competitors. Their venue plan can't hold a candle to either of their rivals. Their infrastructure is by far the weakest. Their transportation times will easily be the longest. Their government is by far the most questionable, with considerable instability in the not too distant past. They are arguably more vulnerable to terror attacks. Their marketing and bid PR has seemed extremely weak, unfocused and disorganized (weirdly, there's STILL no logo). They have the least clout and respect in the IOC of the three bidding nations. If Istanbul wins, the IOC will again reward the weakest technical bid of the candidate cities.

None of those points can be dismissed too lightly.

Honestly, I don't dislike Istanbul, but I'm not in love with them either. At this point I'm lukewarm about Istanbul and Tokyo and I'm sad for Madrid.

Yes, the IOC has shown a preference for new and untested hosts in recent votes. That will not hold up forever. The question is whether it will last through 2020 or 2024 or whether the streak will end with PC 2018.

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I don't think Madrid will win, but I don't think the loss of JAS hurt them much. Yes, he was a very iimportant figure, but no one will forget him or his 2016 plea. He will be forever associated with Madrid's bids and his memory alone commands respect. I think Spain is very well positioned and connected in the IOC even without JAS. The glowing working group report looks like evidence of that to me.

Losing JAS wasn't going to sink the bid. I don't even know that Barcelona has to be a killer, though it certainly is a hurdle. It's the economic perception and ensuing PR mess that's going to get them.

I don't disagree, for the most part, with this. But how do you expect, exactly, that Madrid get more than 1/3 of the block vote again, that couldn't be accomplised when JAS was around.

I'm sure that the IOC has respect towards Spain, considering one of their longest term presidents was Spanish. But just bcuz of that, I don't think that the IOC will give more votes to Madrid, this time around, to show their "respect" for JAS. The IOC did that already when they awarded his hometown of Barcelona the '92 Olympics & when they also made him an "honorary member for life" after his presidency. One would think that France is also very well positioned & connected to the IOC, but yet Annecy 2018 got shown the door in a very abrupt way.

As for the working group report; it had to be construed in a way in order to get the other 2 non-starter bids outta the way. So I wouldn't read too much into that, especially when Madrid was ironically critique a bit in the 2016 Final Evaluation Report.

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The point is...Madrid/Spain just had the Olympics 20 years ago when things were going well with Spain. Now they ain't. .

Agreed. So I don't understand the impertinance of some people on here, when it's quite obvious that Madrid has several major hurdles than it's 2 rivals. Unless one is completely bias, then they should be able to clearly see this, no matter what.

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I don't disagree, for the most part, with this. But how do you expect, exactly, that Madrid get more than 1/3 of the block vote again, that couldn't be accomplised when JAS was around.

I'm sure that the IOC has respect towards Spain, considering one of their longest term presidents was Spanish. But just bcuz of that, I don't think that the IOC will give more votes to Madrid, this time around, to show their "respect" for JAS. The IOC did that already when they awarded his hometown of Barcelona the '92 Olympics & when they also made him an "honorary member for life" after his presidency. One would think that France is also very well positioned & connected to the IOC, but yet Annecy 2018 got shown the door in a very abrupt way.

As for the working group report; it had to be construed in a way in order to get the other 2 non-starter bids outta the way. So I wouldn't read too much into that, especially when Madrid was ironically critique a bit in the 2016 Final Evaluation Report.

I've said repeatedly I don't expect Spain to win. Did you read my posts?

Of course no one is going to vote for Madrid to show respect for Samaranch. That's crazy and not at all what I was saying. The members who vote for Madrid will do so because they believe Spain would be a great partner to work with. Samaranch convinced them that Spain understands the Games. Samaranch taught Madrid well. He introduced them to everybody. He believed in them. They get it. As a partner -- which is what I think the IOC is looking for more than anything else in a host -- Spain is going to be very, very appealing to the IOC.

To throw in another metaphor -- they're sort of like hiring the employee that has undeniable weak points, but you hire them because you KNOW you speak the same language. They have real flaws, but you KNOW they understand you and you can work with them. That's the feeling I get about the IOC and Spain. That's why they are not sunk just because JAS is gone. His memory supports this kind of "we can trust them, they get it" sentiment. That "best partner" card is really ALL Madrid has to play at this point. It won't be enough, but it's not nothing.

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Athens, but you see, as with some of your arguments--you most of the time come out a fence-sitter. In other words,"...it's this but it's not..." So it's hard to get a read on you. I guess I much prefer to read people who slant one way more strongly than another. The terribly balanced just leave me with...well, a little puzzled. Like we didn't really advance one step did we, IMHO?

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Athens, but you see, as with some of your arguments--you most of the time come out a fence-sitter. In other words,"...it's this but it's not..." So it's hard to get a read on you. I guess I much prefer to read people who slant one way more strongly than another. The terribly balanced just leave me with...well, a little puzzled. Like we didn't really advance one step did we, IMHO?

Often the balanced view is the correct one. I can't say that Madrid will have zero appeal or traction with the IOC because that isn't true. Similarly, I can't say they are the IOC's darling and a shoo-in to win. Neither of those points is true and neither would advance the conversation.

What does advance the conversation is trying to represent our respective viewpoints as precisely and specifically as possible. If that isn't reactionary enough for you, I don't know what to say.

It seems to me you accuse me of being too strong-willed when it comes to my view on Reno....

I call 'em like I see 'em.

Madrid won't win due to their economic situation and the accompanying PR problems, but could make the second round and will still get IOC support and respect.

There are solid arguments for and against Istanbul and I don't know yet if the Turks will be strong enough to defeat the reliable, if unexciting Japanese. So far Istanbul hasn't really demonstrated anything to convince me that this time they are ready.

Reno would be terrible and if that's the best we can do, the US shouldn't bid.

It's more important for the US to host Summer Games than Winter Games, even if that means a longer wait. I believe that if the US targets Summer Games we will host no later than 2032.

Them's my opinions. Take 'em or leave em. I don't think I'm a namby-pamby wall-flower who can't make up his mind.

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Oh, and I left out my feelings about the London Look, which I haven't been too bashful about expressing.

In summary:

Orbit: horrid

Mascots: freakish

Logo: really unattractive

Ambassador outfits: ghastly

Victory ceremony outfits: weird

Intersecting lines and color palette: basic, not creative, but serviceable and a way semi-salvage and make sense of the logo.

Pictograms: unique, different and memorable.

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In the grand scheme of things that's a drop in the bucket.

Sorry my friend, buy you can't have it both ways. If few billion euros is a drop in the bucket, then you can't argue that it would be irresponsible to give the Olympics to Spain because it will wreck their economy.

It is a drop in the bucket. The Olypics aren't going to make or break the economy. The choice should be decided based on plan, history, venues, where the IOC-spouses want to vacation, etc.... all the normal reasons.

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Sorry my friend, buy you can't have it both ways. If few billion euros is a drop in the bucket, then you can't argue that it would be irresponsible to give the Olympics to Spain because it will wreck their economy.

It is a drop in the bucket. The Olypics aren't going to make or break the economy. The choice should be decided based on plan, history, venues, where the IOC-spouses want to vacation, etc.... all the normal reasons.

I never argued it would wreck their economy. Go back and read my posts.

I've said the Olympics have negligible economic impact of any kind. The Games played very little role in Greece's problems. The Games would not bankrupt Spain, nor would they provide the meaningful economic boost as many have claimed.

I have argued again and again and again that PERCEPTION is what counts in this race -- not reality. It looks bad to award the world's most overblown spectacle to a country that can't pay it's bills where unemployment is skyrocketing. The financial realities are beside the point. It's how it LOOKS that is the problem.

Regardless, it was right of me to point out that the Olympics would not deliver a bunch of free money to Spain to help dig them out of their hole.

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Okay, I'm just going to list my thoughts, because I don't think there's necessarily as much disagreement on this as there seems to be, rather people are arguing different points...

1. Madrid has most of its venues built already. The amount it will take to build the rest is not going to cause Spain any problems.

2. BUT the perception of Spain building any Olympic venues whilst its in a liquidity crisis isn't going to do the IOC or Spain any favours from the outside world.

3. ON TOP OF THIS the venues are not the only thing Spain needs to deal with. I still worry about how their private sector is going to raise the £700m sponsorship needed. So it's not actually just about perception.

4. HAVING SAID THAT I agree the Games does create jobs and sponsorship can in a sense be seen as free money. Certainly the Games themselves provide great publicity for businesses and Spain's creativity and the leverage of the Global sponsorships can have great positive spin-offs. It's not going to pull Spain out of it current crisis, of course it isn't, but nor would it be anything but a boon to the city and its businesses.

5. BUT, and here we come full circle back to point 1, Madrid has most of its venues built already! So there won't be huge amounts of jobs in construction. Madrid is quite possibly overselling the jobs argument in this sense.

Edited by RobH

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5. BUT, and here we come full circle back to point 1, Madrid has most of its venues built already! So there won't be huge amounts of jobs in construction. Madrid is quite possibly overselling the jobs argument in this sense.

Exactly. And if people won't have jobs, say 6 years down the road -- then aside from foreign sales (which are what almost 25% of Oly ticket sales), the remaining 75% would be very undersold.

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2. BUT the perception of Spain building any Olympic venues whilst its in a liquidity crisis isn't going to do the IOC or Spain any favours from the outside world.

The world is rapidly figuring out that austarity measures in Europe were horrible blunders. They greatly added to the misrey of people in the country, and did nothing to help with debt problems.

The conventional wisdom is not going to that countries shouldn't be building stuff. That thinking was a disaster. More and more people are going to be thinking that building stuff is exactly what countries like Spain should be doing.

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Hold on though, Spain is a country with ghost estates, where building got way out of control during the boom years. Austerity might not be the panacea some thought for developed economies, but I still don't think more construction in Spain is necessarily going to create positive perceptions.

Edited by RobH

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It's really a moot point to be arguing if the Olympics will be a savior to Spain's economic woes or not. Since the IOC members, as usual, will be voting on what's best for the Olympic Movement & themselves & not really what's best for the host city that they end up choosing.

Not to metion, the usual geopolitcal shenanigans like, continental rotation & which country outta the 3 has hosted the most recent & how will the 2020 vote effect 2024 potential Euro hopefuls, etc, etc, etc.

I've said repeatedly I don't expect Spain to win. Did you read my posts?

Yes, I did read it. N I didn't claim that you R saying that Madrid will win. Though, you did mention that you don't expect JAS' abscence won't hurt them much.

So I just questioned then, how do you expect this to be the case if I really can't see them even retaining their 1/3 block from their previous races. On the contrary, considering everything else, Madrid 2020 could very easily end up like Munich 2018 (which that was an all-round, sound bid in comparison, & they didn't do all that great), or even an Annecy in this case.

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It's really a moot point to be arguing if the Olympics will be a savior to Spain's economic woes or not. Since the IOC members, as usual, will be voting on what's best for the Olympic Movement & themselves & not really what's best for the host city that they end up choosing.

Not to metion, the usual geopolitcal shenanigans like, continental rotation & which country outta the 3 has hosted the most recent & how will the 2020 vote effect 2024 potential Euro hopefuls, etc, etc, etc.

Yes, I did read it. N I didn't claim that you R saying that Madrid will win. Though, you did mention that you don't expect JAS' abscence won't hurt them much.

So I just questioned then, how do you expect this to be the case if I really can't see them even retaining their 1/3 block from their previous races. On the contrary, considering everything else, Madrid 2020 could very easily end up like Munich 2018 (which that was an all-round, sound bid in comparison, & they didn't do all that great), or even an Annecy in this case.

Samaranchd death isn't going to hurt them. The perception of their economic situation will hurt them.

I never said they'd have the same number of votes as they had in 2016. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the final round, but I can see them going out first too. I really don't think they'll fare as badly as Annecy though. Not with a third consecutive technically sound bid from a highly respected and well-liked NOC.

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and Spain accept they need help, 4th country in EU with ireland greece portugal...

a rescue package of Euro 100 billion! :S

much more than expected and will it be enough nobody knows for now.

hope the country wont suffer too long

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and Spain accept they need help, 4th country in EU with ireland greece portugal...

a rescue package of Euro 100 billion! :S

much more than expected and will it be enough nobody knows for now.

hope the country wont suffer too long

I think this bailout is for the Spanish banks, NOT the government. However, that could change rather quickly.

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Besides the fact that i think Madrid hosting the 2020 Olympics is a laughable idea under the current situation, there are broader issues at play. The Spanish banks and the Spanish government will both face total European bailout this year. With that around their necks how on earth do they think that these same European countries (Germany, France) would in anyway support them to host an Olympics with basically their money?? Its an utter joke.

Secondly, when 1 in 4 peopledo not have a job (and likely to hit 1 in 3 not too far away), so many people are being evicted from their homes and are battling to survive, schools and hospitals are suffering with massive declines in funding. Within all of this how on earth do you expect the people to even support a bid where so much money is being pumped into an Olympics while the lives they know are totally crumbling around them?

People in here live far too much in fantasyland rather than reality

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Secondly, when 1 in 4 peopledo not have a job

Um, when 1 in 4 people do not have a job, building stuff and hosting a lot of tourists is exactly what you want to do.

Spanish *banks* are having trouble. Central bankers in France and Germany are willing to help out the Spanish banks because the Spanish banks owe a lot of money to French and German banks.

I'm completely baffeled by the suggestion that the IOC shouldn't put the Olympics in Spain because stupid bankers in France and Germany were dumb enough to give money to stupic bankers in Spain.

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