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thatsnotmypuppy

2018 - Winners And Losers

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OK - so PC finally figured out they needed more than 50% of the initial vote. Good for them - but bad for others.

Let's nut this one out(it is early and I cant spell for sh!t this morning - apologies in advance).

WINNERS

The South Korean Olympic Committee

I'm not saying PC will win directly - the venues are basically built - so what they are getting is now 7 years of inconvenience and public scrutiny - but we'll go into that in the losers part. The KOC has been rewarded for a decade of bidding but also a decade of incompetence. They have hosted poorly attended and organised world champs in a few winter sports and have snow venues that sadly don't always get snow. What they have however is manouvered themselfs to a point of constant annoyance. I know that sounds harsh - but my IOC contacts have complained about continual badgering by the Koreans whenever a bid cycle is coming around. What this vote proves is that the IOC is prepared to give a Games (yet again) to a less than stellar host city with dubious claims of "fronteir" or "new horizon" status. Korea is not a new horizon. Their only claim was that their small country had not hosted a Winter Games. Asian winter sports athletes had Sapporo and Nagano. They've had six (?) Asian Winter Games. The angle of "wah - only Japan has hosted a winter Games - gimme gimme gimme" was childish - but like with any child constant nagging eventually reaps rewards.

Samsung

Now I'm ain't saying they a gold-digga - but the IOC ain't settlin' for no broke broke...

Short Track Speed Skating

My G-d that IF is gonna be treated like royalty. Forget Ice Skating being the glamour event...

Germany

You have lots of options now. Munich will go into 2022 with a lot of momentum, Berlin could throw in a 2020 bid - you got a large number of votes considering the competition this time around. A good showing - if sadly not the result you wanted.

Madrid/Istanbul

Persistence pays off. Keep on throwing that silly bid money around and you will get it. Just claim that no Games have been near you for a while and that Turkish/Spanish kids need a Summer Games to um, open up new areas and um yeah.

Rome

Unless another major centre sets out a great plan - enjoy hosting 2020!

LOSERS

France

7 votes. Now you can argue Annecy was not an "A Grade" product - but if the French NOC can only muster a half dozen or so votes - well - you need better lobbyists and a better marketing team ASAP. Paris 2020 - hmmm. It looks like a long shot.

The good people of Pyeongchang

Well I am sure your local leaders have told you about what a great honour this event is and how much prestige has now been given to this small Korean city. The issues are that you will soon see big business move in, small business beng trampled, massive pressure to buy tickets/merchandise etc and guilt trips to ensure mighty Korea will not be made to look silly. You already have most venues in place so that is a bonus - you will however have brand new highways tearing your valley apart, dubiously useful high speed trains zipping around and endless delegations of officials trampling over the countryside. Yeah you get a few weeks of sport out of it - but that is pretty much it. Your taxes will stay sky high, property prices will be over-inflated and heck you may lose your land for some questionable installation.

The Games

People will say - yeah the Games are going back to a smaller town again! Yay Lillehammer/Nagano! Sadly this is not the case. You are merely placing a massive, cumbersome, oversized event in an area ill suited to stage it. You aren't getting a few nice legacy projects - you are getting a dozen white elephants. Even worse - they are venues on the ground now that aren't being used to even 5% of their capacity. That isn't just poor management but a massive waste.

Tokyo

No official rotation policy is obviously bullshit.

It is inevitable that PC would have hosted - and yeah you can claim sour grapes (though why would be a mystery as I am not German, French or Korean and a PC Games means nearly all of us overseas attendees should get ALL the tickets we want (bar Short Track SS)) but I think this decision is wrong.

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You forgot "Nature" on your loser list.

That's not the only thing he forgot.

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LOSERS

France

6 votes. Now you can argue Annecy was not an "A Grade" product - but if the French NOC can only muster a half dozen vites - well - you need better lobbyists and a better marketing team ASAP. Paris 2020 - hmmm. It looks like a long shot.

Hardly a loss.

More like a minor setback whilst waiting for the Big One......

PS:

What's a "vite"?

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Typo - now fixed.

I purposefully did not mention nature - he is licking his wounds as it is.

And Frenchy - if I was the French NOC I would be worried.

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That's not the only thing he forgot.

Haha yeah. Well, I'm surprised 'Nature' really seems to have disappeared. I expected him to stay a little longer to vent his anger.

Anyway, interesting analysis thatsnotmypuppy. (Btw, did Baron think puppy was nature?) I can see how the people of PyeongChang could be losers. I certainly agree that the people there will have to share a large portion of the financial burden for years to come (perhaps even more), but I don't think they'd be too unhappy with getting more visitors, better access and infrastructure. Nonetheless, I can see ur point with regards to financial burden.

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You aren't getting a few nice legacy projects - you are getting a dozen white elephants. Even worse - they are venues on the ground now that aren't being used to even 5% of their capacity.

Well, it's a winter tradition...Lillehammer...Sochi. So you can't really blame PC. They're MOVING one stadium to another town...so beating Qatar 2022's moves.

So Pups, most/some of your IOC contax lied to you or were Munich sympathizers. Obviously, they told you disinfo to create exactly fear and confusion that Gangwon experienced.

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Should the French NOC be worried, or be ready to bring Paris to the 2020 show?

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Should the French NOC be worried, or be ready to bring Paris to the 2020 show?

All parties have to do is submit something by Sept 1; then take it from there.

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So Pups, most/some of your IOC contax lied to you or were Munich sympathizers. Obviously, they told you disinfo to create exactly fear and confusion that Gangwon experienced.

Nope - far from it.

My contacts are almost exclusively in the OCA - thus I can assure you from their perspective (considering there are a number of potential bidders from that region) the momentum was shifting from PC to Munich as that was what they needed to have happen. Furthermore most media outlets and even the almighty GB Bid Index showed that Munich was gaining ground.

If the IOC made the votes public (who voted for whom) you would see a very small number of votes for PC from OCA alligned nations.

So not malicious disinformation per se - more like wishful thinking from their perspective. There will be many annoyed Asian OC's this morning. China, Japan, Kazakhstan etc etc.

This vote shows two things -

1. South Korea finally secured enough first preference votes. If they didn't win in round 1, a round 2 win may have been impossible.

2. The European bidders may have traded second preferences - but did not do enough work to get those first preference votes.

This has happened before and will happen again.

I bet you the NOCs in Spain and Italy are ecstatic. Turkey - maybe not so much.

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I bet you the NOCs in Spain and Italy are ecstatic.

Yeah, well Cinquanta sure showed where his interests were guiding him last night.

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Geez, if according to those sources, momentum was "shifting" from PyrongChang to Munich, then what could have the outcome been instead if it wasn't shifting! :blink:

PyeongChang 90

Munich 4

Annecy 1

Dang! :blink:

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I admit, that with Sunny Kim shown the door and Bach's star rising, I thought German influence in the IOC had to have been stronger than Korea's. I'm still not sure that's untrue - I think PC's win was more patience and persistance and sympathy than internal politics.

Still, 25 wasn't great, but it wasn't disasterous either. The French NOC has to be worried though. I still think they can't afford to sit out the 2020 race, but 7 would have to be discouraging for their hopes too.

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Yeah, but lets also look at how close Paris was for 2012. Just a few votes shy from winning. Just like PyeongChang for 2010 & 2014.

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Yeah, but lets also look at how close Paris was for 2012. Just a few votes shy from winning. Just like PyeongChang for 2010 & 2014.

Good point. But, hey, the day after a vote is always one for us to pick over the carcass for the augurs. As good a reason too not to put too much store in Munich's 25 being an indication of German influence in the Halls of Lausanne vis a vis Korea.

I'd love to be party to the post-mortem discussions by the French team in the cocktail bars of Durban after the vote or at the breakfast bars this morning. It always hurts to lose, and it's gotta be discouraging.

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1. South Korea finally secured enough first preference votes. If they didn't win in round 1, a round 2 win may have been impossible.

I bet you the NOCs in Spain and Italy are ecstatic. Turkey - maybe not so much.

How would that be?

95 first round votes cast.

PyeongChang: 63

Munich: 25

Annecy: 7

Lets say PC lost 10 of it's 1st round votes to Munich (which i don't know why they would), and Munich got all 7 Annecy votes, plus 2 French member votes, it would still be:

Total 97 votes cast.

PyeongChang: 53

Munich: 44

I'm sure I'm missing something simple.

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And Princess Anne did vote. Her name was not mentioned as those not wanting to vote like Oswald; and there were NO abstentions recorded either.

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Should the French NOC be worried, or be ready to bring Paris to the 2020 show?

There is no issue on Paris 2020... no plans in Paris... and no wish from the NOC to bid so soon.... and a NO GO from the Paris town-hall.

What should worry the French NOC, is the real power of its 2 IOC members... How could each of them have only an average 3.5 very good friends within the IOC members????

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How would that be?

95 first round votes cast.

PyeongChang: 63

Munich: 25

Annecy: 7

Lets say PC lost 10 of it's 1st round votes to Munich (which i don't know why they would), and Munich got all 7 Annecy votes, plus 2 French member votes, it would still be:

Total 97 votes cast.

PyeongChang: 53

Munich: 44

I'm sure I'm missing something simple.

No - you aren't. I don't think anyone (apart from one or two members here) expected PC to get even close to that. Most educated guesses were that Munich would open with 35, PC possibly 45 and Annecy taking up the rest. Depending on the Annecy factor Munich could have feasibly had enough round 2 votes to win - or even more likely some first round PC votes may have been sympathy votes for their third attempt - like Istanbul in 2012.

PC dominated in round 1. That is what needed to happen and luckily for them that is what happened.

Anyhow - here is what I am sure most people expected to have happen -

Round 1

Annecy - 12

Munich - 36

Pyeongchang - 46

Round 2

Munich - 51

Pyeongchang - 46

Or something along those lines.

There is no issue on Paris 2010... no plans in Paris... and no wish from the NOC to bid so soon.... and a NO GO from the Paris town-hall.

What should worry the French NOC, is the real power of its 2 IOC members... How could each of them have only an average 3.5 very good friends within the IOC members????

Yep. I've heard the same. 2020 should be Madrid VS Rome with Tokyo possibly causing an upset - but unlikely.

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Yep. I've heard the same. 2020 should be Madrid VS Rome with Tokyo possibly causing an upset - but unlikely.

I think Madrid will be squished between Rome and Tokyo. We've heard the Koreans and Italians are NOT liked in the IOC but the Spaniards are. Well, today's results have spoken otherwise. I think Madrid will be the batter between the Italian and Japanese juggernauts.

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How could Tokyo come so close with PC having just happened in 2018? It'll drop out first, followed by Madrid, with Istanbul getting the most sympathy votes, and Rome triumphant. This is assuming no African bid.

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It doesn't quite work that way.

Tokyo is in a precarious position - that is for sure. They now need to remind the IOC that Europe has hosted Games in 2004, 2006, 2012 and 2014. Asia has hosted 2008 and now 2018 - thus really an Asian Summer Games is due next. The Japanese need to be quite strong on this point. Just because Asia hasn't hosted back to back Games doesn't mean a precedent (precident?) should not be set.

With costs associated with hosting the Summer Games astronomical the IOC needs to keep the Asians happy as more and more Games will eventually head that way. Plus Japan is now a three-peat bidder too - Osaka 2008, Tokyo 2106 and now Tokyo 2020. Add in new legacy for the Japanese youth, the Earthquake/nuclear meltdown recovery (assuming there are no major Christchurch like aftershocks coming) and they have a compelling story.

Working against them is Tokyo would be a repeat host and Japan have had 2 Games already. However Italy has also been a repeat host - including recently. Spain is also a recent host. Istanbul is bound to play the 'new area' card - but they need more than that. I think it is safe to discount any Middle East bid right now. The knock back to Doha over hosting dates has not been resolved.

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It doesn't quite work that way.

Tokyo is in a precarious position - that is for sure. They now need to remind the IOC that Europe has hosted Games in 2004, 2006, 2012 and 2014. Asia has hosted 2008 and now 2018 - thus really an Asian Summer Games is due next. The Japanese need to be quite strong on this point. Just because Asia hasn't hosted back to back Games doesn't mean a precedent (precident?) should not be set.

With costs associated with hosting the Summer Games astronomical the IOC needs to keep the Asians happy as more and more Games will eventually head that way. Plus Japan is now a three-peat bidder too - Osaka 2008, Tokyo 2106 and now Tokyo 2020. Add in new legacy for the Japanese youth, the Earthquake/nuclear meltdown recovery (assuming there are no major Christchurch like aftershocks coming) and they have a compelling story.

Working against them is Tokyo would be a repeat host and Japan have had 2 Games already. However Italy has also been a repeat host - including recently. Spain is also a recent host. Istanbul is bound to play the 'new area' card - but they need more than that. I think it is safe to discount any Middle East bid right now. The knock back to Doha over hosting dates has not been resolved.

Another problem for Tokyo will from China... that will probably want to bid for the 2026 Winter Games....

So 2018 Asia, 2020 Asia ? plus 2026 Asia... that's a lot !!!!!!!!!!!!

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And Frenchy - if I was the French NOC I would be worried.

Why?

Last time round we beat New York, then Moscow, then Madrid in spite of having the sh#t piled up against us by the English speaking press....

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The French NOC has to be worried though. I still think they can't afford to sit out the 2020 race, but 7 would have to be discouraging for their hopes too.

It could also be construed has the mother of all green lights for 2020!

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