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PyeongChang 2018's affect


Triffle

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How will the election of PyeongChang to host the 2018 Winter Games affect the bidding race for the real thing- the 2020 Summer Olympics? Unfortunately I think this will severely hamper Tokyo's bid for the Games; opening the door wide open for Rome and Madrid. Hopefully Durban re-enters the race (all I guess they were never officially in it) and Istanbul with an improved plan.

And will the failure of Annecy and Munich provoke Paris and Berlin to bid?

I doubt Paris will bid for 2020; if they're planning another shot surely they would be eyeing 2024. But with PC elected (possibly thwarting Tokyo's chances) and RSA currently ruling out bidding, I think Paris needs to enter the 2020 race if they want to host the games before the 2030's.

Germany however I'd expect to just focus on another tilt at the Winter Games in 2022 now that Asia's out of the way; and a 16 year has effectively been opened between Western European Winter hosts.

Dammit happens every time!!!

Replace affect with effect in the title.

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I agree, that a PC victory today could hurt Tokyo's bid. If I were them, I wouldn't throw in a bid, but they have a shot at winning. Winter Games back-to-back is not necessarily unusual. It has happened five times since 1980. It just has never happened to Asia before.

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Especially since Korea and Japan are essentially very similar countries in the eyes of the world. It might be different if say Tokyo won 2020 and Harbin bidded for 2022 (and PC lost the 2018 bid).

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I agree, that a PC victory today could hurt Tokyo's bid. If I were them, I wouldn't throw in a bid, but they have a shot at winning. Winter Games back-to-back is not necessarily unusual. It has happened five times since 1980. It just has never happened to Asia before.

Almost happened in 2010 though. Remember how close we were to having Beijing followed by PyeongChang, so it's not unthinkable that Tokyo could win.

That said, the wild card is still South Africa. Because if they don't bid for 2020 (which they're still toying with the idea they might), they probably go for 2024 and would likely be the favorite then. So if you're a European city like Rome or Paris or Berlin, why would you wait when the 2020 field probably lacks a bid from Africa, might lack a bid from Asia if Tokyo isn't feeling confident, and more than likely is before the United States can get their act together to put in another bid.

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Not only did it almost happened for 2010, but it almost happened first for 2000. Beijing lost 2000 by a mere 2 votes, despite 1998 was slated for Nagano. Just because it hasn't happened with Asia before, doesn't mean that it can't. These 2 near Asian back-to-back misses suggests that the IOC doesn't/wouldn't rule it out.

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Yes, but Japan is no longer as powerful as China. I certainly won't predict that it can't happen. It is just unlikely to happen with history being our guide.

But the IOC seems to like to make history these past few cycles...

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Agree with you both in some ways. This certainly dents Tokyo's chances, but there ought to be no reason why Asia couldn't have a Winter/Summer (or visa versa) back-to-back.

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I would say PyeongChang's win definitely blunts Tokyo's shot at 2020, but what about a future Winter Games? The last "small town" per say to host a Winter Games was Lillehammer. Does PyeongChang's win open the door for cities like Sion or perhaps Ostersund? PyeongChang campaigned with a high rail link to a metropolitan area with a major airport.

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I would say PyeongChang's win definitely blunts Tokyo's shot at 2020, but what about a future Winter Games? The last "small town"

OK, what is "small town" limits?

I was shocked to hear Yuna's narration say that PC is the 3rd largest South Korean city...if I heard right. ALtho I thought it was in the 220,000 range...but then you include ALpensia with that.

Lillehammer was what 70,000 or so? Well, that is huge compared to Lake Placid's 982-something official residents.

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Why do some some people still mistakenly think that PyeongChang is going to do this alone? While PC is not that large, they're going to host this with much larger Gangneung (which is the Ice events anchor, like Vancouver & Turin were). While Gangneung is still not as big as Sochi, it's still much larger than Sion, Ostersund & Lillehammer. PyeongChang is gonna be the home to the ceremonies & Alpine events.

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Why do some some people still mistakenly think that PyeongChang is going to do this alone? While PC is not that large, they're going to host this with much larger Gangneung (which is the Ice events anchor, like Vancouver & Turin were). While Gangneung is still not as big as Sochi, it's still much larger than Sion, Ostersund & Lillehammer. PyeongChang is gonna be the home to the ceremonies & Alpine events.

That's my point. PC has nearby Gangneung. Gangeung could've easily been the candidate city hosting the ice events and ceremonieswhile PC hosted the skiing and sliding events. That's been the formula with recent hosts like Torino and Vancouver. Yet PC was presented as the candidate city. So could Sion or Ostersund use the same plan and host or even Lillehammer again?

Wikipedia lists PyeongChang's population at 46,531.

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^Precisely. The Olympic Charter states that the Opening & Closing Ceremonies MUST be in the 'host' city. Which in this case, was PyeongChang.

Sion nor Ostersund doesn't have a major city nearby that they could use as the Ice hub. Switzerland would be better off using Berne, Zurich or even Geneva. And recently, like within the last 6 months, an IOC member was quoted as saying that if Norway tries again, that they should do so with Oslo.

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Switzerland is apparently choosing between 5 locations for a possible 2022 bid. One is a joint bid with Davos & St. Moritz, and another is Geneva. I don't know what the other 3 locations are, but I would assume that Sion is one of them.

Wikipedia it.

I am liking this St.Mortz bid, with one of the ice hockey venues being the famous davos arena. However, I would like the OC to return to an actual stadium, so I am leaning towards a bigger city.

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Well, in terms of influencing future results, about the only cast iron consequence is we won't be seeing a Harbin or Aomori 2022 or 2026. Apart from that - well, it's a bit of a handicap for Tokyo 2020 - it's gonna be difficult, and unlikely, for them (though not totally insurmountable).

It'll have more of a result with bidding. The floodgates are open for a lot of Euro bidders for 202 now. I hope Munich's back (but I dread my loyalties being torn if Sweden tries a crack a well), I think we'll see Norway and Switzerland have a go. And wasn't Spain lining up a "Barcelona" winter bid? But I guess that depends on Madrid.

Winters 2022 and 2026 are going to be split between Europe and the USA in all likelihood. I think I give Europe the edge for 2022.

Surely now we're going to see more Europeans enter the 2020 summer race?

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I think that we'll also see lots more European applicants for 2022, too. Since that'll mean now the last time that Western Europe would've hosted a Winter Olympics is 2006. Surely we'll get more than what 2018 did. Plus, maybe a bid from the U.S. & to a lesser extent, Quebec.

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I am thinking the IOC will want to return the winter games to a more time friendly market in 2022. With that being said Munich/USA.

my guesses:

2020: Europe

2022: USA

2024: RSA

2026: Europe (Munich 2 times is a charm :lol:)

2028: Tokyo (the 8's)

2030: Almaty?

2032: Toronto.

Meant 3**

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It's hard to imagine the Winter Olympics away from the Alps for 20 years. The most they've ever been away is 16, & that was just a one-time deal. Now that PyeongChang has secured 2018, the European bidders are going to come out in droves for the 2022 Games.

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It's hard to imagine the Winter Olympics away from the Alps for 20 years. The most they've ever been away is 16, & that was just a one-time deal. Now that PyeongChang has secured 2018, the European bidders are going to come out in droves for the 2022 Games.

Sweden is not the Alps but is clear-cut European. I would love to see a Swedish Winter Games and certainly wouldn't mind them getting it first over another Euro bid just because it's in the Alps.

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Problem with Sweden though, is that they don't have a good Ice/Alpine combo deal. Which is what hampered their Falun bids. And Ostersund could use Are. But is Ostersund still too small nowdays for the Winter Olympics of today? That's the serious question.

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Problem with Sweden though, is that they don't have a good Ice/Alpine combo deal. Which is what hampered their Falun bids. And Ostersund could use Are. But is Ostersund still too small nowdays for the Winter Olympics of today? That's the serious question.

Point taken - it IS a handicap. But it's Sweden. They've gotta try! My experience with my Swedish relatives and all the Swedes I know is that they DO consider themselves a winter nation and almost have more of a burning desire for the winter games than a summer. It helps that they REALLY want to even up the hosting score with Norway - sorta like Melbourne still wanting to tip the scale back from Sydney.

What about Toulouse/Pyrenees?

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Problem with Sweden though, is that they don't have a good Ice/Alpine combo deal. Which is what hampered their Falun bids. And Ostersund could use Are. But is Ostersund still too small nowdays for the Winter Olympics of today? That's the serious question.

It's an angle they should play up. "It's different, and it's a blast to the past, a return to WOG roots and the time is right." If they fed me that I would eat that up.

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Point taken - it IS a handicap. But it's Sweden. They've gotta try!

What about Toulouse/Pyrenees?

Well, don't know much about the Pyrenees, but Tulsa (if that means anything) says that the Pyrenees wouldn't be good for a Winter Olympics in France. Which I guess would also hamper a Zaragossa bid, too.

And Rols, what are you going to do if both Sweden & Munich join the 2022 fray??

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