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South Africa will not bid for 2020


Rob.

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HAMBANTOTA 2020!!

Or NEW DELHI!!!

But seriously, I think it's going to be an Istanbul - Madrid - Rome showdown.

TOKYO is really too dicey. Not even taking a PYEONGCHANG 2018 into account, what if another e/quake/tsunami hits Japan two years before 2020? That means scrambling again to find another host -- just like they had to do with the Figure Skating Champsionships. Ain't too easy to do that with an Olympics Games.

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From those who seem to have 'sources' in-the-know (Jeremie and Memorabilia), we know talks about Paris 2020 have been going on, but we also know the Mayor isn't keen. I'm of the opinion that Paris is unlikely to bid from reading their posts, but S.A. pulling out surely makes things more interesting for the potential stakeholders in a future Paris bid. They'd have a hugely good chance if they threw their hat in.

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Berlin, Paris, Madrid won't bid.

I don't know about Berlin or Paris, but Madrid will probably bid now that we know South Africa won't. Since Madrid lost in the final round of the 2016 voting with a technical project 2 points better than the winner Rio de Janeiro, Madrid officials have always said they will bid for 2020 unless the IOC really wanted to go to Africa, so it wouldn't matter if anyone had a superb technical project. They're not scared of the possible European rivals (although, of course, anyone can win in the end), they were just wary of Durban 2020.

With no strong African contender, and now that the elections are over (with no changes in Madrid, BTW), I think this is all the city needed to bid again. In fact, this morning, the President of the Spanish Olympic Committee encouraged Madrid again to bid for the 2020 Olympics.

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From those who seem to have 'sources' in-the-know (Jeremie and Memorabilia), we know talks about Paris 2020 have been going on, but we also know the Mayor isn't keen. I'm of the opinion that Paris is unlikely to bid from reading their posts, but S.A. pulling out surely makes things more interesting for the potential stakeholders in a future Paris bid. They'd have a hugely good chance if they threw their hat in.

I think a lot of it surrounds not wanting to lose again. But with shaping into a race between Europe and Tokyo, Paris has a very good chance. They have hosted furtherest back of any of the major European countries.

Now we will see how powerful the Japanese truly are, if they can derail Pyeongchang for the second time, Tokyo will be the front-runner for 2020, if Pyeongchang wins, a race with Paris means Paris is the most likely front-runner. No Samaranch will really hurt Madrid and Italy just hosted in 2006.

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Berlin, Paris, Madrid won't bid.

Oh really? You know exactly what France and Germany are going to do after the 2018 vote? Have you talked to those at the top? What else does your crystal ball say?

If Berlin and Paris don't bid, they are shooting themselves in the foot by giving up one of the easiest chances to win the bid. If Berlin and Paris don't bid, I'm calling up the Canadian Olympic Committee to tell them to nominate Toronto. Never mind that Vancouver 2010 just passed. With the US, South Africa, Berlin, Paris, Russia, China and the entire southern hemisphere out of the picture, you might as well buy a ticket and hope for the best. :rolleyes:

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Oh really? You know exactly what France and Germany are going to do after the 2018 vote? Have you talked to those at the top? What else does your crystal ball say?

If Berlin and Paris don't bid, they are shooting themselves in the foot by giving up one of the easiest chances to win the bid. If Berlin and Paris don't bid, I'm calling up the Canadian Olympic Committee to tell them to nominate Toronto. Never mind that Vancouver 2010 just passed. With the US, South Africa, Berlin, Paris, Russia, China and the entire southern hemisphere out of the picture, you might as well buy a ticket and hope for the best. :rolleyes:

I think 2018 Munich will win. Such situations do not happen.

They are focused on the Winter Games.

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I think 2018 Munich will win. Such situations do not happen.

They are focused on the Winter Games.

I agree that Germany is more focused on a winter bid, since they have said they will win again, but I doubt 2022 will be successful. But Paris would be stupid not to bid. And Gangwon is right, if all Toronto faces is Tokyo and Rome for 2020 they would be stupid not to bid.

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I'm not surprised by this decision. But do you think it is a partial recognition that Durban is not the right city especially knowing that the IOC has a taste for the glamour cities (Sydney, London, Rio)? Cape Town is more of the glamour city for South Africa but of course they were not hungry to bid.

I also thought this race would be another glamour race (a la 2012). Not that Rome and Tokyo aren't exciting, but the list is rather short. Also, I'm wondering about the Americans. In a game where timing is everything it seems the USOC had it totally wrong for chasing 2012 and 2016...and apparently again by bowing out of 2020. North America is ripe for a Summer Games.

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No Samaranch will really hurt Madrid and Italy just hosted in 2006.

Again, nobody remember those games happen. :huh:

As for Madrid, late news from Spain don't seem to encourage any olympic bid. Paris is the next most likely to come from Europe to me.

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I think the Koreans will win the 18 games

Therefore strangely the race for 2020 could become entirely an european affair between Rome, Istanbul and any other continental contender.

Madrid will not bid, I can bet on it. It's not the right time for Spain.

Paris may very well bid, if the french do not want to wait till 2028-2032 in their centennial quest for SOG

Berlin....unlikely, I think they will go for Munich 2022

So at end it could very well be Rome-Istanbul-Paris

My bet is on Istanbul, if they do things right. If they make mistakes (even small) it's Rome to loose

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This certainly changes the dynamics of the race, and if PC wins 2018, then it will be like 2012 all over again (with the exception of not having NYC, London, Moscow and Rio bidding), so maybe not 2012 per se, but certainly a battle between the Europeans...

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This certainly changes the dynamics of the race, and if PC wins 2018, then it will be like 2012 all over again (with the exception of not having NYC, London, Moscow and Rio bidding), so maybe not 2012 per se, but certainly a battle between the Europeans...

My guesses:

2018: Pyeonchang, South Korea

2020: Europe

2022: USA

2024: South Africa

2026: Germany (Munich)

2028: Canada??

Same as 2002-2010 minus South Africa hosting 2024.

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This certainly changes the dynamics of the race, and if PC wins 2018, then it will be like 2012 all over again (with the exception of not having NYC, London, Moscow and Rio bidding), so maybe not 2012 per se, but certainly a battle between the Europeans...

It'll be very much like 2012 all over again if PC wins.

New frontier hosting the Summer Games before (for Beijing read Rio), European Games one before that (for Athens read London).

A clutch of strong European bids, plus a strong bid from a different continent (for NYC read Tokyo). And like the 2012 race, the odd city out geographically is also in a region which is hosting the Winter Games two years previously (for Vancouver read PC).

We may or may not have a Middle-Eastern bid stirring things up even more, but there seem to be a quite a few parallels to 2012 now S.A. has left the building and Japan has re-entered.

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Says someone from a country which has had 8 Olympic Games.

I'm not saying I think the US needs another Olympic Games (we don't) although I think it would be cool. I think Africa should get its turn, and Australia should get another turn, and Japan, and Indonesia. But time after time it goes Europe, someone else, Europe, someone else, Europe, Europe, someone else, Europe... and on and on and on...

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My guesses:

2018: Pyeonchang, South Korea

2020: Europe

2022: USA

2024: maybe South Africa?

2026: Germany (Munich)

Same as 2002-2010 minus South Africa hosting 2024.

Yeah, it looks like that's how the next few rounds might play out...but I'd give 2028 to Asia.

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Again, nobody remember those games happen. :huh:

As for Madrid, late news from Spain don't seem to encourage any olympic bid.

The "nobody remember those Games" argument shouldn't be good for Rome. The IOC must remember voting for Turin, so why giving another Games to a country that has just hosted an unmemorable Olympics?

And regarding Madrid, there will be no South Africa, the mayor wants the Games, the Spanish NOC has encouraged the city to bid, there's a very high public support not only in Madrid but all over the country... I don't know if they'll finally decide not to bid, but there's no strong reason why Madrid shouldn't bid at all.

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The "nobody remember those Games" argument shouldn't be good for Rome. The IOC must remember voting for Turin, so why giving another Games to a country that has just hosted an unmemorable Olympics?

Yes, but the Rome 1960 Games were a landmark -- even meriting a great book!!

Remember, those were the 1st Summer Games that attracted $$ from a U.S. TV network.

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Personally, I'd prefer to see more of a cultural contrast to Rio. Tokyo offers the greatest contrast, but with PC likely to get 2018, it's hard to imagine Tokyo 2020. (Hard, but not totally impossible...) Istanbul would spice things up too. Paris, Rome and Madrid could all stage great Games and would undoubtedly be shortlisted with excellent technical bids. I guess I'm just not in the mood...

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Yeah, it looks like that's how the next few rounds might play out...but I'd give 2028 to Asia.

Why?? North America would be due for a Summer Games 30 years, Asia would have at 20 years before that.

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Why?? North America would be due for a Summer Games 30 years, Asia would have at 20 years before that.

I'm just going by the "8's for Asia" pattern that has held so far:

1968 - Mexico (well, the pre-Colombian peoples are from Asia, so technically, it was an "Asian" Games ;)

1988 - Seoul

1998 - Nagano

2008 - Beijing

2018 - possibly, PyongChang

and I don't think Tokyo is a strong candidate for 2020 should it run...so

2028 - looks more likely for Tokyo to me...

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Yes, but the Rome 1960 Games were a landmark -- even meriting a great book!!

Remember, those were the 1st Summer Games that attracted $$ from a U.S. TV network.

Yes, I know, and I'm not saying Rome can't bid and get the 2020 Olympics, just that I don't like forgetting about Turin 2006 to strengthen Rome's chances for 2020. The same way I could forget about Seoul 1988, Barcelona 1992, Nagano 1998, Vancouver 2010, etc. and it would be absurd!

Like it or not, Turin was there. It may have no effect on Rome 2020, but simply forgetting about them is kind of nonsense to me.

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I'm just going by the "8's for Asia" pattern that has held so far:

1968 - Mexico (well, the pre-Colombian peoples are from Asia, so technically, it was an "Asian" Games ;)

1988 - Seoul

1998 - Nagano

2008 - Beijing

2018 - possibly, PyongChang

and I don't think Tokyo is a strong candidate for 2020 should it run...so

2028 - looks more likely for Tokyo to me...

1964 Tokyo, not Asia, in Mars

1972 Sapporo, not Asia, in Moon

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