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baron-pierreIV

Winter 2022

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Here's what I'm imagining:

Munich will be the PC 2018 of 2022 -- the strong choice and obvious candidate to win who rises to the challenge and gets the victory. It's time for German Games.

A US bid may be the Munich 2018 of 2022 -- a sound bid from a strong country with a good geopolitical argument. It makes sense, it's certainly not a bad option, but it's someone else's time and the emotion is with the other candidate.

I do think that 2026 is as close as the US will get to a shoo-in, but I hope they choose to pursue 2024 first.

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Here's what I'm imagining:

Munich will be the PC 2018 of 2022 -- the strong choice and obvious candidate to win who rises to the challenge and gets the victory. It's time for German Games.

A US bid may be the Munich 2018 of 2022 -- a sound bid from a strong country with a good geopolitical argument. It makes sense, it's certainly not a bad option, but it's someone else's time and the emotion is with the other candidate.

I do think that 2026 is as close as the US will get to a shoo-in, but I hope they choose to pursue 2024 first.

With Munich 2022 and Denver 2026 setting the stage for a decade of "50th anniversary redemptions." :P

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R they really that much of a threat to you (Brazil)? :rolleyes:

Even in soccer they aren't anymore... cool.gif

This time in Argentina, I'll bring some pics to show my points wink.gif

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You're seriously hoping that Durban won't run, will you?

If they do good, but I can't see them winning on their first try.

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If they do good, but I can't see them winning on their first try.

I dunno. I still don't think they would have automatically got 2020 just by mailing their application as many seem to think. I think the two new frontiers in a row factor after Rio would have counted too much against them. Then again, that's an argument that's never going to be tested or resolved now.

But that won't be a factor for 2024 or later now. And the IOC had made it clear they want them to bid. Nobody's unbeatable, but I'd fancy their chances as a strong contender now they've sat out 2020. Even more so if they can prove themselves with a CWGs in the meantime.

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If South Africa can go to the table with having hosted Football and Rugby World Cups and a Commonwealth Games, then they will be confident for Olympics

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If they do good, but I can't see them winning on their first try.

I think the same... Durban wont get it at leat until 2032....!!!! (maybe 2028 but that's Tokyo's ;))

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It's a good thing that most IOC members can see the much bigger picture versus things like; "i can't see them winning on their first try". Which, yeah, might be 'Durban's' first try, but not South Africa's.

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Agree with the points above. I can see both scenarios with Durban winning or losing, but I don't know if I would want a US bid against Durban, because it could be 2016 all over again, and the stamina of a US city to do repeat bids (with exception to LA) is likely to be low.

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Agree with the points above. I can see both scenarios with Durban winning or losing, but I don't know if I would want a US bid against Durban, because it could be 2016 all over again, and the stamina of a US city to do repeat bids (with exception to LA) is likely to be low.

Durban is not a sure thing though. And there's no guarantee their bid will be strong enough.

It could be 2016 all over again-- that's a real possibility. But there's no way to know for sure until you're in the race. It could be totally different.

If the USOC waits for a sure-fire Summer winner, they won't bid for decades. I understand the fears about Durban, but you can't live your life in fear. I think that goes for Olympic bids as well.

Tokyo took a big risk in bidding for 2020 after PC's win. People will say the choice was foolhardy if they lose. But they also just might win.....

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Durban is not a sure thing though. And there's no guarantee their bid will be strong enough.

It could be 2016 all over again-- that's a real possibility. But there's no way to know for sure until you're in the race. It could be totally different.

If the USOC waits for a sure-fire Summer winner, they won't bid for decades. I understand the fears about Durban, but you can't live your life in fear. I think that goes for Olympic bids as well.

Tokyo took a big risk in bidding for 2020 after PC's win. People will say the choice was foolhardy if they lose. But they also just might win.....

U must be the MOST indecisve man in history. With you, NOTHING is ever sure. R u even breathing? Or u're not sure?? :blink:

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It could be 2016 all over again-- that's a real possibility. But there's no way to know for sure until you're in the race. It could be totally different.

Tokyo took a big risk in bidding for 2020 after PC's win.

Or perhaps the JOC really believed when Rogge said that PC 2018 would not impede a Tokyo 2020 bid. However, the 2 scenarios are not really alike.

Since one, PC 2018 would/could be an INdirect effect on Tokyo 2020. And two, while a potential U.S. bid facing off a Durban/South African competitor is a Direct confrontation on the same day, on the same ballot. Which IOC members will have to make a direct decision about, one way or the other. And a possible scenatio that the USOC will most likely take into account.

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All metaphors and similies breakdown at some point. Obviously the JOC took a gamble on Rogge, but it was still a gamble. I think the chances are pretty high that the IOC will offer similar assurances to the US for 2024 --insisting that new frontiers aren't their only criteria. Like Japan the US would take a risk by jumping into the race despite obvious challenges. The gamble might pay off or it might not. There's no way to know until the race is underway. I applaud Japans's bravery and hope the US follows suit. You can't live in fear....

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All metaphors and similies breakdown at some point. Obviously the JOC took a gamble on Rogge, but it was still a gamble. I think the chances are pretty high that the IOC will offer similar assurances to the US for 2024 --insisting that new frontiers aren't their only criteria. Like Japan the US would take a risk by jumping into the race despite obvious challenges. The gamble might pay off or it might not. There's no way to know until the race is underway. I applaud Japans's bravery and hope the US follows suit. You can't live in fear....

A lot of those comments from Rogge seem completely hollow and empty to me. "We encourage the USOC to bid" or "PC 2018 won't impede 2010" seem to hold no weight or meaning having come from Rogge. Whoever coined the term Roggespeak I think has it right, and I doubt the JOC would have done anything different if Rogge said nothing. I have to imagine that statement was meaningless to them.

As for "assurances," again it's just empty words. Let's say Rogge comes out and says the USOC should bid for 2024. Is that going to mean anything to them? If he actually comes out and discourages a bid (which I don't think he'd do), that's 1 thing, but Rogge's encouragement of a US bid, to me at least means absolutely nothing for the USOC.

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To be fair, Rogge is often asked "should such and such city bid?", and what's he going to say? No, I don't think the IOC is ready to vote for that city/country.

He is a politician, so he has to walk the line. Now, certainly we can glean his level of enthusiasm for a certain city/country as being authentic or not, but many times he might just make a simple statement, and a dozen or so news outlets pick it up, and make it out to be bigger than it really is.

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Yes he's a diplomat, N we can say ''well, what's he go to say''. Well, all the more reason to take any of his comments about any potential bidder with a grain of salt.

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You can't live in fear....

It's NOT a matter of 'living in fear.' It's a matter of being wise, strategic, smart --reserving your resources.

Fooled me once, shame on you.

Fooled me twice, shame on me.

Fooled me thrice, be a Madrileno ...or something like that.

Edited by baron-pierreIV

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I don't trust Rogge. My post wasn't meant to suggest that he or the IOC should be believed. I'm saying that Japan chose to take a gamble on 2020 despite a major hurdle. It could pay off. If the US gambled on 2024 that could pay off as well.

The problem with a gamble is that people judge the wisdom of the choice by the ultimate outcome. There's no way to say for certain that Japan won't win 2020 or that the US won't win 2024. I think it's too early to declare either of those choices foolhardy.

Many dismissed Tokyo's candidacy initially, but now they seem like a threat. The same could happen with a US bid for 2024. No way to know until you're in the thick of it.....

As for Madrid, if it weren't for their economic woes I think they could have won 2020....

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The problem with a gamble is that people judge the wisdom of the choice by the ultimate outcome. There's no way to say for certain that Japan won't win 2020 or that the US won't win 2024. I think it's too early to declare either of those choices foolhardy.

There's a word for that, it's called hindsight. And hindsight, as they say, is 20/20. You could say that about virtually any non-winning bid. After all, unless losing eventually leads to winning (and we've seen that plenty of times before), what more is it than a wasted effort. If South Africa had bid for 2020 and won, we'd all be saying "it's their time" and that everyone else was stupid for going up against them. The whole "timing" thing is stupid and overblown though. You know when South Africa's time is? Whenever they wind up winning and we'll say it's their time.

As we know how these races tend to work, a lot can (and will) change in 2 years. And heck, what you're talking about with Tokyo is over a span of 2 months. Any city that bids is taking a gamble, especially in a field with 6 candidates (some more serious than others, of course). Sometimes those gambles pay off though. Just ask the folks in a certain city in the Southeastern United States that wasn't supposed to have a chance at landing an Olympics, how'd that work out for them.

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You'd better watch out, looks like we might have a bit of competition in this race after all:

http://www.insidethegames.biz/sports/summer/athletics/14873-qatar-set-to-announce-new-major-bid-after-defeat-to-london-2017

2022 race? Qatar? :lol:

I am thinking its a bid for the 2018 FIBA World Championship. They are already bidding for the 2013 FIBA Asia championship with Lebanon, Jordan and the Philippines.

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