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baron-pierreIV

Winter 2022

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It's possible, but the mayor, along with 2 dozen officials from the 2015 PanAm Games just got back from 2 weeks being in Guadalajara to observe & learn from the 2011 PanAms. So I seriously doubt the minute they got back from Mexico they jumped back on a plane & headed off to Lausaunne. So considering that, I'd still say Quebec was the most likely there.

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It's possible, but the mayor, along with 2 dozen officials from the 2015 PanAm Games just got back from 2 weeks being in Guadalajara to observe & learn from the 2011 PanAms. So I seriously doubt the minute they got back from Mexico they jumped back on a plane & headed off to Lausaunne. So considering that, I'd still say Quebec was the most likely there.

The thing is the people that were pushing for a bid was the private sector with some politicians. So it is likely they went.

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The only reasonable bidder that should be getting things on paper and start planning is San Francisco. They would have more red tape

Well,

#1 - I think I saw San Francisco's name, rather I was surprised to see a delegate or 2 from SF, in the May symposium.

#2 - They're having a mayoral election next week...so we'll have to see how that pans out first. Incumbent Ed Lee is gung-ho about America's Cup 2013; I don't where the others stand.

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Still, Y not be there. What could it bother to further the cause, like trying to play nice with the IOC. Still hasn't stop L.A. from being there.

It's been noted that the USOC's mission is to try & mend relations with the IOC. Simply because New York & Chicago "already know" how it works shouldn't impede that mission by not furthering it along. Like with anything else in life, you can never stop from learning since there's always something new. Especially in New York's case, when their bid was even further back than Chicago's more recent attempt.

Chicago is simply not interested at this time, so they probably felt that they shouldn't involve themselves in something that may be perceived as making them publicly interested, when they may not want to be perceived that way.

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New York or Chicago or whomever, can't start running to IOC headquaters in Lausaunne at 11:59 PM deadline day & say; "phewww, made IT! That was a close one!". Doesn't work that way.

Ok. I agree it would've been nice to see more summer candidates there, but just because they didn't show doesn't mean they're going to run up to the IOC at 11:59 pm. Come on now.

Why is it so important to you to rule out any possibility of a summer bid? Why the overstated extremes? It seems like you're incredibly passionate about this.

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Again, though. If they're "interested", how long are they suppose to wait then? The USOC, if they're going to pursue a 2024 bid, will have to start a domestic bid process within the next couple of years. So cities should at the very least, be ready to move if/when the USOC were to give the green light on a summer bid. And again, the cities of Denver & Reno aren't gonna wait around to see if any other cities are interested in the Summer Olympics. They want the Winter Olympics for themselves. So the USOC can only go with what they get.

And it's not anymore "important & passionate" to me to rule out any possibility of a summer bid than it is so important & passionate to you (as your signature suggests, too) to rule one IN. And beisdes, I've NEVER totally "ruled" a summer bid out. I've always said that Los Angeles is most likely the one that would present itself. So I'm not overstating anything. Only speaking what is there & what is not.

Don't get me wrong, I'm with you about Chicago's potential (I've told you that before) & that a Summer Olympics would be the better prize, but I'm being more realistic than optimistic by what's going on in the Olympic realm. Which seems to suggest that a Winter bid is most likely the next chapter for the USOC. And if there does turn out to be a 2024 bid, I'm still willing to say that it'll be from Los Angeles before any of the other Alphas.

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I'm not trying to "rule" anything in. Maybe no one will bite as you suggest. But your post offered two alternatives:

1.) go to the conference 4 years ahead of the deadline (which you said was "weird" for LA to attend).

2.) Run up to the IOC at 11:59 on deadline day.

Just because I'd like to see a little middle ground there doesn't mean I'm insisting on ruling a bid in. I've already acknowledged that I'm disappointed there isnt more stirring in Chicago. As of today, it looks like they're out. But let's not do the postmortem just yet, ok? Even in Olympic world 4 years is not a drop in the bucket.

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I agree about your view on not wanting to call any Chicago bid "dead", but we all can agree there are no signs of life at the moment. Since in office, Emanuel has not made any statements about Chicago never bidding again, but it certainly does not seem like a priority of his. Again, he's still just getting his feet wet in the job.

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At this juncture, I am almost willing to put my support behind a Denver bid for 2022...

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At this juncture, I am almost willing to put my support behind a Denver bid for 2022...

I can understand that. I've always said that if the USOC put forward a Denver bid, I'd support it despite my disappointment over Summer Games.

I think we just have to wait on the USOC. They're in the best position to know what's possible and what isn't. Until there's a revenue deal it's all moot anyway....

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I'm not trying to "rule" anything in. Maybe no one will bite as you suggest. But your post offered two alternatives:

1.) go to the conference 4 years ahead of the deadline (which you said was "weird" for LA to attend).

2.) Run up to the IOC at 11:59 on deadline day.

Just because I'd like to see a little middle ground there doesn't mean I'm insisting on ruling a bid in. I've already acknowledged that I'm disappointed there isnt more stirring in Chicago. As of today, it looks like they're out. But let's not do the postmortem just yet, ok? Even in Olympic world 4 years is not a drop in the bucket.

Here's some middle ground for everyone and I'll use New York as an example, and I'm guessing similar logic may apply to Chicago..

The NYC 2012 bid began to materialize in the mid 1990s when Dan Doctoroff started working with Rudy Giuliani and city agencies to pursue an Olympic bid. I'm going to guess that bid had little if any resemblance or connection to the NYC 1984 bid that lost out to Los Angeles. Doctoroff had the advantage of working with a popular mayor (and a big sports fan at that) who was likely to be in office for a while and would support Doctoroff's efforts. Now certainly a bid effort isn't required to have that much lead time, but look at what Reno-Tahoe and Denver have organized, planning that's been years, if not decades in the making.

Let's say a new visionary comes along and decides he wants to see New York take another shot at the Olympics. The current mayor of NYC is unlikely to be there in 2 years time and we still don't know what the USOC is thinking for 2024. So if that person is looking at an NYC Olympics, is he looking at 2024 with no more than 4 years lead time (probably a lot less) or is he already starting to look further into the future, at say 2028? Will that person rush to pursue the next available Olympics or will he take his time and formulate more of a long-term strategy?

I guess the bottom line is there's no way to set a cut-off date for when a city would need to throw their hat in the ring if there's going to be a 2024. But history does tell us that most bids from the USOC do have years of planning behind them, to say nothing of a domestic competition that would likely need to occur. And that's not even accounting for whatever might have to happen for 2022 (which I'm obligated to mention now that I realize we're not in the USA 2024 thread). In an effort to echo FYI's sentiments since I largely agree with him.. while we're not yet at the point that New York and Chicago can be written off, planning for those would need to materialize sooner rather than later. And if that doesn't happen within the next year or so, especially in New York where you're that much further removed from the 2012 bid, then 2024 no longer looks feasible for those cities.

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I agree about your view on not wanting to call any Chicago bid "dead", but we all can agree there are no signs of life at the moment. Since in office, Emanuel has not made any statements about Chicago never bidding again, but it certainly does not seem like a priority of his. Again, he's still just getting his feet wet in the job.

I've said this before, but I don't see Chicago bidding again in the next several cycles. The group that led the last bid certainly has no interest in pursuing another bid. A lot of people in Chicago feel burned by the IOC, and I don't think there will be support for another bid for a long time.

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A couple things in Chicago's favor is there are no term limits for mayor, so it is very conceivable that Emanuel could be in his position for a long time. The other, is he is new, and might be willing to throw his hat in the ring in say five years or so. But by that time, it might be too late for a 2028, and if 2022 is awarded to Reno or Denver, then it's likely the next Summer Games won't be in the US until the 2040's at the earliest.

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I could still see 2032 be possible for the U.S. even if 2022 were awarded to Denver or Reno. The thing is, though, 2022 is most likely to go to Europe. So that means Denver or Reno's most likely shot is for 2026. Then that does push any summer bid from the U.S. to 2036 or 2040 at the earliest.

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I agree that 2026 is more likely than 2022 for the US -- unfortunately...

If the US hosted 2026, the vote for 2036 would be just 3 years after the American Winter Games. Can anyone realistically imagine Canada winning 2020 after Vancouver 2010?

If the US got 2026, I doubt we'd see Summer Games until 2044 -- a 48 year distance from Atlanta. I don't see that being positive for the US or the Olympic movement.

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If the US hosted 2026, the vote for 2036 would be just 3 years after the American Winter Games. Can anyone realistically imagine Canada winning 2020 after Vancouver 2010?

I know past precedent doesn't predict the future, but why not (and Canada isn't necessarily the best example, even though less we forget they hosted 2 Olympics a mere 12 years apart)? The United States hosted 4 Olympics within a span of 22 years. Salt Lake won the 2002 Olympics before Atlanta had even hosted (and nearly won for 1998, as well).

Here's the thing to remember though.. All 4 of those winning bids came as a result of favorable competition. Lake Placid and Los Angeles won by default. Atlanta won against weak competition. Salt Lake did the same. It's all a matter of who you're up against, not just how good your bid is. Let's say the US gets 2022 or 2026.. that certainly doesn't preclude them from winning, say, 2036 if the circumstances are favorable. Now could that shift things in Toronto's favor if they're going up against a USOC bid? It might, but that's way too far down the line to be concerned about something like that.

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I know past precedent doesn't predict the future, but why not (and Canada isn't necessarily the best example, even though less we forget they hosted 2 Olympics a mere 12 years apart)? The United States hosted 4 Olympics within a span of 22 years. Salt Lake won the 2002 Olympics before Atlanta had even hosted (and nearly won for 1998, as well).

Here's the thing to remember though.. All 4 of those winning bids came as a result of favorable competition. Lake Placid and Los Angeles won by default. Atlanta won against weak competition. Salt Lake did the same. It's all a matter of who you're up against, not just how good your bid is. Let's say the US gets 2022 or 2026.. that certainly doesn't preclude them from winning, say, 2036 if the circumstances are favorable. Now could that shift things in Toronto's favor if they're going up against a USOC bid? It might, but that's way too far down the line to be concerned about something like that.

not only that but any comparison between the U.S. N Canada is apples n oranges anyway. How can anyone even compare a country 1/10 in size of the U.S. N one that delivers so much revenue to the IOC. Its like Spain. They have a great bid with Madrid but they're having such a difficult time securing the Games mainly bcuz for such a small country, relatively speaking, it's bigger Western European neighbors have the upper hand in many categories.

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2022 certainly seems to be taking shape earlier than 2020 did, but I agree 2026 would probably be an easier field to bid against. I would love for Reno to be thrown in the 2022 race as a sacrificial lamb against European heavy weights, and then have Denver come in to take 2026, even with its negative history. :lol:

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I think any discussion is mute for the most part. A Rome or Madrid victory could allow for the US to win 2022, but a Tokyo win would almost secure Europe winning 2022. And really, post-war the longest North America has had to wait for a Winter Olympics is 20 years between 1960 and 1980. So 12 years between Vancouver and a potential US 2022 bid is entirely possible. 2020 and 2022 could be decided more on the quality of lobbying compared to the previous two cycles. All things being equal (the four current 2020 bids) and most of the potential 2022 bids all have similar strengths/weaknesses. One cycle always impacts the next and it is far too early in the 2020 race to assume anything about 2022.

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One could say that ANY discussion about any Olympic cycle is moot because no one really knows with 100% certainty what the outcome would be for any particular cycle. But most of us can have a hypothesis. Which is what these boards are all about anyway.

With that said, the IOC overwhelmingly chose PyeongChang for 2018 so they can more than likely send 2022 back to Western Europe. Whoever wins 2020 really won't have too much of a bearing for Europe for 2022. Consecutive winter/summer Games have been awarded to Europe before & surely could/would happen again. The Winter Olympics have also never been away from the Alps for more than 16 years, & I seriously doubt that the IOC would keep them away for much longer than that at any given time.

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I certainly believe any US bid for 2022 would be taken seriously, but the IOC has shown no concern for awarding Europe back-to-back summer and winter games. Recent history shows Athens/Torino, and Albertville/Barcelona/Lillenheimer.

So I think it will come down to who is able to pull the strings of the IOC members the hardest. Certainly, the Swiss and German bids will be strong. On the other hand, the pull to finally let the Americans win again could be strong to.

Now if a Euro city gets 2020 AND 2022, then it really opens the field for 2024 to Africa, Asia and N. America.

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