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Fewer bids for the 2020 Olympics?


stryker

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Given the fact that we are only a couple of years removed from a huge global economic crisis, some countries (the U.S.) announced they have no intention to bid for 2020, natural disasters have affected other nations (Japan) and with the race for 2020 approaching and only one candidate has officially been nominated (Rome) is it possible we could actually see fewer candidates for the 2020 Olympics than we have in previous races? Granted, some might be waiting to see how the 2018 race comes out but right now, outside of Rome, the only other two cities I see as sure fire candidates are a South African city, probably Durban, and Doha. My guess is since Qatar has the 2022 FIFA World Cup along with what they felt was a humiliating elimination during the 2016 race that Doha is all but in.

Beyond that it gets murky. Despite recent reports, I just don't see Japan entering the race and a Pyeongchang win in July all but cancels out Asia for 2020. The U.S. has clearly said no and given the economic climate in the U.S. right now I think you'd have a hard time finding a candidate city where the population would support an Olympic bid. Does Madrid give it a third try after consecutive runner-up finishes? Does Paris get the green light if Annecy falls short for 2018? Who else is there? Wikipedia lists cities Budapest, Lisbon, and Istanbul. I think Lisbon is out given the fact Portugal is practically bankrupt. Meanwhile nothing has been heard from Budapest or Istanbul. Maybe they're waiting for the 2018 result. After the disaster that was the 2010 Commonwealth Games I don't expect a bid from Delhi anytime soon.

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There could be 5 or 6 applicant cities.

As you pointed out, Rome is certain and South-Africa is very very likely (still waiting for the formal go-ahead of the government).

Then it would be surprising not to have at least one bid from either Doha, Dubai or Abu Dhabi.

Istanbul and Baku have started to make some noise as well.

Then, depending on the result for 2018, we might have either a bid from Tokyo (if central government supports it) or an additional European bid (Madrid or Paris).

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I agree with both of you.

Rome will bid for sure as well as South Africa (what I don't like about South Africa is the messy local bid campaign they're carrying out). Then, I have some doubts about Tokyo. I think that if PyeongChang gets 2018, Tokyo will wait for 2024 or 2028.

From the Middle East, I think Doha will bid. On the other hand, I expect no bids from the Emirates, so no Dubai or Abu Dhabi. Istanbul will probably bid too and Baku is also likely to be there, IMO.

And among the rest of countries in Europe, Spain and France are the only ones I would expect a bid from, although Budapest may want to join the race. I don't know the reasons that would make France bid or not (maybe they prefer 2024), but I can assure you that Spain (well, Madrid) will study the Durbanite bid, probably in early June. If in the end they consider 2020 will be clearly awarded to South Africa (à la Rio), Madrid will place a bid for 2024. If they consider the South African candidate isn't unbeatable, then Madrid will bid for 2020.

So, in short, I expect between 6 and 9 bids for 2020. In alphabetical order: Baku, Budapest(?), Doha, Durban, Istanbul, Madrid, Paris(?), Rome and Tokyo(?). In case the 9 cities finally decided to bid, the candidates would probably be one among Doha/Durban/Istanbul, Madrid, Paris, Rome and Tokyo. In case only the ones without question mark bid, the candidates would be Durban, Madrid, Rome and Doha and/or Istanbul (depending on how many candidates they want).

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It could be fine. Have the IOC not done a consultation/workshop process for the 2020 bids? This will either encourage or discourage bids?

Here is the process :

IOC Sets Timetable for 2020 Olympics Bidding

A letter will go out to national Olympic committees on May 16 inviting them to nominate applicant cities for the summer Games.

In a first for any bidding contest, the IOC will ask for NOCs to submit letters regarding compliance with the World Anti-doping Agency code by July 29. Also unprecedented, Olympic committees will request submission of proposed dates, if nations want to stage the Games outside the normal period set by the IOC (July 15 and August 31).

The IOC will respond to NOCs on these points by the end of August.

The bidding contest gets underway in earnest after the election of the 2018 Winter Olympic city at the IOC Session in Durban on July 6.

The deadline for applicant city nominations from NOCs is Sept. 1. An information seminar for 2020 applicants is scheduled for October.

Application files and guarantee letters are due with the IOC by Feb. 15 next year, with the IOC Executive Board deciding on the candidate cities for the 2020 Games at its May meeting.

Following the London 2012 Olympics and a debrief in Rio de Janeiro, bid dossiers must be submitted to the IOC in January 2013.

Evaluation Commission visits and a briefing to IOC members take place in the following months before the election of the host city at the 125th IOC Session in Buenos Aires on Sept. 7.

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we cannot decide if Istanbul will bid for the olympics or turkey bids for 2020 UEFA champ till this month due to interntaional sporting laws ( 2 int comp. cannot be held at the same year at the same city. there is st like that) . but the schedules are clear now and Istanbul will bid for 2020 as sports and youth minister says.

and 1 of these twin sisters will get the games as i guess.. Rome 2020 or Istanbul 2020

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I've read several reports online that Istnbul will present a 2020 bid, according to the Turkish government. I certainly would seem them as more certain than I would a Doha bid. Qatar really haven't made any noise about an Olympic, especially after winning the 2022 World Cup.

And as far as Tokyo, the earthquake & tsunami disaster won't be a detriment to a 2020 bid, according to the JOC president. He says he doesn't know where or why some people are getting this perception of "it's all over for an Olympic bid" because of the natural disaster. Especially when he also stated that Tokyo remained largely intact afterwards. The most funny thing to me about that though is, before the earthquake, we hardly were hearing anything if Tokyo was going to bid or not. And now after the earthquake, more is being spoken about a potential 2020 bid. Weird.

The early favorites as of now would seem to be Rome & Durban. Simply because they seem to be the most determined, the ones that are starting already to get their message heard, & the ones with a very good potential to sell a good product to IOC members.

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Qatar really haven't made any noise about an Olympic, especially after winning the 2022 World Cup.

I would've hoped Mike Lee advised them to be satisfied with one global plum and cool down those hosting hormones. They're NO Brazil and it would be hard to buy 65 voters and be sure they all come through.

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I'm not exactly sure why, but for some reason the 2020 race isn't grabbing me at this point. Whatever applicant cities turn up, I don't see this race generating the excitement of either the 2012 or 2016 campaigns.

I guess it will be upstarts vs. standbys. Upstarts: Durban, Doha, Istanbul, Baku. Standbys: Rome, Madrid, Paris, Tokyo.

If PC gets 2018 (and I think they will) then Tokyo's out.

Then it's up to the upstarts to prove they've got what it takes while the standbys try to capitalize on longstanding relationships with the IOC.

My gut tells me Durban will fall short and 2020 will end up in a major European capital. We'll see, but I'm not exactly on pins and needles here....

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For the moment only few countries have declared a potential bid :

Rome, Tokyo, and Durban...

Maybe Istanbul, Dubai...

If PC loose to 2018, maybe Busan ?

If Munich loose maybe Berlin ?

If Annecy loose Paris won't bid...

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If PC loose to 2018, maybe Busan ?

If Munich loose maybe Berlin ?

If Annecy loose Paris won't bid...

Berlin is making as much noise as Paris at the moment.

We will know at the latest on September 1st whether Paris is bidding for 2020. Until then no one knows for sure, although I give much more weight to a potential Paris bid than I did 6 months ago (there has been a few hints that the idea is entertained)

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Berlin is making as much noise as Paris at the moment.

We will know at the latest on September 1st whether Paris is bidding for 2020. Until then no one knows for sure, although I give much more weight to a potential Paris bid than I did 6 months ago (there has been a few hints that the idea is entertained)

I live in France and nobody speaking about Paris 2020... Paris won't bid to 2020

Some reason :

- It's the same mayor than in 2008 and 2012 and he has declared recently "Paris won't bid in 2020" moreover is very opposed with French president Nicolas Sarkozy and they won't work together...

- Paris is already engaged to a very important project to modernize the city... with lot of investment and it won't ready in 2020... I don't think France would like bid with a city in construction...

The situation has changed since the last Paris bid and France isn't ready to comeback with Paris for the moment maybe in 2024 but 2 others French city are interesting to host SoG, Marseille and Nice...

Lot of people here, declared Paris bid in 2020, but sorry for them but Paris won't bid in 2020... Next time maybe...

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And Madrid? And Doha?

Yeah, these two should be added to Tulsa's list. I don't know if they'll finally bid but they have made more noise than at least Dubai and Berlin.

paris2020.jpg?w=300&h=179

Those rings remind me of the Thames a lot :rolleyes:

I live in France and nobody speaking about Paris 2020... Paris won't bid to 2020

[...]

Lot of people here, declared Paris bid in 2020, but sorry for them but Paris won't bid in 2020... Next time maybe...

I'm going to believe you. In fact, that's just what I want to hear about Paris (sorry for its supporters :P).

I hope no surprises on September 1! :unsure:

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I'm going to believe you. In fact, that's just what I want to hear about Paris (sorry for its supporters :P).

I hope no surprises on September 1! :unsure:

Paris could be a great bid... but I prefer a victory of Annecy to 2018.

In fact Paris doesn't need to bid... I prefer see cities where there are need to infrastructures and developments even it's more difficult to host SoG for them. I hope to see Marseille bid in France or Nice even it's small cities compare to Pekin, RIo or London...

Moreover in Europe it's always the same cities who try to host SoG (Paris, Madrid, Rome...) Why not Seville, Milan, Copenhagen, Sofia or Stockholm ?

About Paris there isn't bid to 2020... I'm sure about 99,99% :P

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I am not saying Paris will bid. I am saying the idea is been considered. Just because no public noise is made about it doesn't mean that there is no discussion about it.

One of the reason is that 2020 looks more and more set to be Durban Vs Europe and that a victory of Rome (or Madrid) would definitely put Paris back to 2028 or 2032 at the earliest.

Again, let's wait for the result of July to get a clearer picture.

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Moreover in Europe it's always the same cities who try to host SoG (Paris, Madrid, Rome...) Why not Seville, Milan, Copenhagen, Sofia or Stockholm ?

The Summer Olympics as we know them today can't be hosted by cities like Seville or Sofia. It may seem it's always the same European cities trying to host, but in the end it comes out that even though there are more capable cities of hosting in Europe than anywhere else, no more than 15-20 European cities could place a realistic bid, and not all of them are interested, so it's understable that after some time some of them repeat their bids.

Anyway, Paris hasn't hosted the Olympics since 1924, Rome since 1960 and Madrid simply hasn't hosted the Games yet, so even if they bid a lot, they haven't been awarded the Games that much. On the other hand, Stockholm had hosted in 1912 (long ago...) and bid again for 2004, ending up 4th behind Athens, Rome and Cape Town. And, if I'm not wrong, Milan could have bid for 2020, but reached some kind of agreement with Rome.

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The Summer Olympics as we know them today can't be hosted by cities like Seville or Sofia. It may seem it's always the same European cities trying to host, but in the end it comes out that even though there are more capable cities of hosting in Europe than anywhere else, no more than 15-20 European cities could place a realistic bid, and not all of them are interested, so it's understable that after some time some of them repeat their bids.

Anyway, Paris hasn't hosted the Olympics since 1924, Rome since 1960 and Madrid simply hasn't hosted the Games yet, so even if they bid a lot, they haven't been awarded the Games that much. On the other hand, Stockholm had hosted in 1912 (long ago...) and bid again for 2004, ending up 4th behind Athens, Rome and Cape Town. And, if I'm not wrong, Milan could have bid for 2020, but reached some kind of agreement with Rome.

Milan got support for its F1 grand prix (which risked to go to Rome) and is engaged in organizing the 2015 Expo

If Rome doesn't get 2020 it may try its luck in future bids (even 2024)

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Anyway this is the rather short potential list of euro candidates for SOG in the medium term (next 40 years)

Likely hosts

Paris

Berlin

Rome

Madrid

Milan

Moscow

Saint Petersburg

Warsaw

Stockholm (borderline)

Amsterdam (borderline)

Unlikely hosts, but possible bidders

Lisbon

Copenhagen

any medium-sized German city (Kohln, Frankfurt, Hamburg etc)

Budapest

Prague

Bucarest

Bruxelles

Likely hosts which have hosted too recently to bid again anytime soon on SOG

Barcelona

London

Athens

Munich

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I don't think Europe will host 8-10 times in the next 40 years. Between 1960-2012, six European cities hosted, or will host a SOG.

I can see 5 or 6 on your list as "likely hosts" instead of the 10 you listed. The only four that I truly see as likely is Paris, Madrid, Rome and Berlin.

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I'd also put Warsaw at the borderline, with Stockholm and Amsterdam.

And, of course, Europe won't host 10 times in the next 40 years - that would mean there wouldn'b continental rotation from 2020 to 2060! I also see Paris, Madrid and Rome as the most likely to host. Then, Berlin would come very close. After them, Moscow or St. Petersburg (one OR the other, not both of them) and, a bit further, Milan. Stockholm, Amsterdam and Warsaw would be the least likely to host among them all.

^^^Oops! I mean "there wouldn't be continental rotation" ;)

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I don't think 2015 thinks ALL of those are likely to host in the next 40 years; just that those cities have as good chance of hosting as each other.

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