2020 Olympic Games Bids

[Aronious]

Idk if it's standard protocol. All I can say is that step wasn't there for 2012 nor 2016. Hence why Doha got nixed for 2016.

Perhaps that little element is just PR to give the IOC some leverage & not be accused of anything like they for were for Doha's early elimination for 2016, despite meeting the technical benchmark.

Agreed. It surely raises questions of the IOC's benchmark formula. If a city is able to effectively "pass" the required score, yet fail so catastrophically in some areas of the assessment, you have to question how robust the whole process is. Yes, they made the correct and preferable decision by eliminating Doha but as you rightly point out, it doesn't gel well with those who saw Doha as a legitimate 2016 bid despite the clear short-fall in the area of climate.

In my opinion, any bid from Doha (despite what you mentioned about changes to the process) would be fruit less.

I'd like to see a North American bid in this race. It could be the opportune race for a city like Toronto given the plausible "risk" involved in going to Durban too early, large amount of European bidders (although this didn't work in New York's favour) and relatively recent period since Beijing and Nagano. Considering that we are unlikely to see any US city bid, this may be Canada's last chance to host before the increasingly likely scenario of a US city hosting in 2024 or 2028. Of course, there are a fair few assumptions built in to this last paragraph.

[baron-pierreIV]

Agreed. It surely raises questions of the IOC's benchmark formula. If a city is able to effectively "pass" the required score, yet fail so catastrophically in some areas of the assessment, you have to question how robust the whole process is. Yes, they made the correct and preferable decision by eliminating Doha but as you rightly point out, it doesn't gel well with those who saw Doha as a legitimate 2016 bid despite the clear short-fall in the area of climate.

In my opinion, any bid from Doha (despite what you mentioned about changes to the process) would be fruit less.

I'd like to see a North American bid in this race. It could be the opportune race for a city like Toronto given the plausible "risk" involved in going to Durban too early, large amount of European bidders (although this didn't work in New York's favour) and relatively recent period since Beijing and Nagano. Considering that we are unlikely to see any US city bid, this may be Canada's last chance to host before the increasingly likely scenario of a US city hosting in 2024 or 2028. Of course, there are a fair few assumptions built in to this last paragraph.

Canada's NOT going to get it even if they should bid. They just had a Winter Games. The IOC may copy FIFA and actually do a reverse of FIFA's RSA 2010-Brazil 2014. I think it'll be a Brazil 2016 - RSA 2020. They've beaten FIFA to Russia twice already, and certainly they're not going to match FIFA's absurd 2022 move. And if the 2022 WC is indeed being moved to January, then that'll all the more prove that Doha - Dubai - that whole region is untenable for a July-August window. If anything, I think Istanbul will be the one to give Durban some competition.

[FYI]

really, there's so many other elements (besides the heat) why the IOC would want to stay from Doha or any other Middle Eastern location at the moment. I've always believed that the "too late dates" excuse was always just a smokescreen for the real reasons why Doha was shoved aside despite their high scores in other areas.

And with Rio hosting 2016, that makes any bid from the Americas' for 2020 futile. If the IOC were to deem Durban as 'still too risky', then they'll just go to Rome.

[Sir Rols]

Isn't this standard protocol though? If I recall correctly, there was a lot of questions over Sydney proposing to host the Games in September despite the July-August time frame. Even in September and October the average temperature in Doha is still above 30 degree....some five degrees hotter than it is in Madrid at the height of the European summer (July).

The only months I'd consider acceptable for a SOG's in Doha would be November, December, January, February and March; months completely UNACCEPTABLE to the IOC.

..and the IOC won't be bending over backwards to accommodate Qatar..unlike FIFA.

Aren't they planning to have the whole country air-conditioned in time for the 2022 WC anyway?

[dysan1]

Madrid is no hotter than my home city of Perth during the peak of its summer.

Surely there is scope to push the Games into August or September as was the case for Beijing and Sydney. I can't say I've ever heard of the heat being the reason for Madrid's past two failures.

Heat would not help but i dont think would toss it aside. I think the fact that they continually forget they just hosted with Barcalona is their biggest problem. Greedy or clueless? i dunno which one to think they are.

[Kenadian]

Doha should be too busy building for the 2022 FIFA World Cup to bid for the Olympics. That and the heat problem should cancel their bid.

Looking around at some external factors, Toronto could have have been a really strong contender for 2020. Vancouver 2010 would offer it both pluses and minuses but with the USOC out of the race and North America looming on 24 years without a Summer Olympiad, there was a real opportunity. But there is really no way that Toronto will support the 2015 PanAm Games and an Olympic bid so close to each other. Everyone so far in this race is could be defeated by a strong Toronto bid - the 2008 bid was a highly acclaimed, solid bid, the city is in a lucrative time zone, and Canada has a fresh team of highly experienced Olympic organizers. But this time around, Toronto's Olympic hopes are defeated by its own successful PanAm bid.

[LuigiVercotti]

Doha should be too busy building for the 2022 FIFA World Cup to bid for the Olympics. That and the heat problem should cancel their bid.

Looking around at some external factors, Toronto could have have been a really strong contender for 2020. Vancouver 2010 would offer it both pluses and minuses but with the USOC out of the race and North America looming on 24 years without a Summer Olympiad, there was a real opportunity. But there is really no way that Toronto will support the 2015 PanAm Games and an Olympic bid so close to each other. Everyone so far in this race is could be defeated by a strong Toronto bid - the 2008 bid was a highly acclaimed, solid bid, the city is in a lucrative time zone, and Canada has a fresh team of highly experienced Olympic organizers. But this time around, Toronto's Olympic hopes are defeated by its own successful PanAm bid.

Hey Kenadian...are the Bread Not Circuses folk still floating around in Toronto or have they disappeared/morphed into another lobby group? If they're still around and interested in fighting against the concept of an Olympics coming to Toronto two questions: 1. Would they impact upon a 2020 bid and 2. any word on protests against the PanAms led by their august body?

[Faster]

Its been quite, but that is not to say its not in the works. Unlike the Vancouver area where there is considerable native land claims disputes in and around the city, there are only a few reserves close to Toronto and by close I mean at least an hour away. That takes away one of the major hotspots of Vancouver issues. Plus the native population in Ontario is so much less visible, especially in the south. They only make up 2% of our entire population; to contrast that, one of the regions outside of Toronto that will be hosting events (Peel) has more real Indians by 100,000 people.

And in general I think the spread of the games over a large areas is limiting the ability to protest or cause problems because so many communities are seeing a direct benefit from hosting.

[Techno Dragon]

I have a strong feeling that a Toronto 2020 bid may or may not happen... it was prolly leaning toward the may until the Pan Ams folks screwed the city kinda awfully... and could lead to the swim center being built outside of the city now. The big difference everyone is forgetting about Van 10 and a potential toronto 2020 bid is that the province and feds are running massive deficits, and we are in a huge election year in Ontario (its going to be ugly x10), so an Olympics could become quite the rally cry for a party looking for victory in a negative way (ie: hey, Toronto is getting $$$ for the Olympics and everyone else is getting screwed! vote for me and my party will squish the bid and spread the money about!!). But hey.. we do have comments from a couple years they were studying for 2020/2024 bid, and didnt rio bid for the 12 games while hosting the 07 pan ams?

[Aronious]

^^ While Toronto offers something completely different to Vancouver and Rio, having both of those Games so soon before a potential 2020 Games would surely hurt Toronto's chances.

In saying that, Rome is still considered a good 2020 prospect despite Torino and London host soon before. I'm not sure Nagano and Beijing impacted on Tokyo 2016 too much either.

[Techno Dragon]

Well, the seeds for Toronto 2020 have been planted in earnest with the mayor saying 4 groups are trying to bring a NFL franchise to the city. Of course, what does any NFL team in the city need? A gigantic Olympic-sized stadium. Here's the link about the conference.... http://tsn.ca/story/?id=350461. Paul Godfrey is the only known person/group at this time, anything else is peer speculation as NFL rules prohibit Rogers from owning a team.

[2015]

Toronto has just zero chance of getting 2020 just 10 years after Vancouver

And this even if Vancouver had been a success, which it wasn't

[Athan]

I think Vancouver's have been the best Winter Games ever

[hektor]

Well having been in Lillehammer, I beg to differ.

[2015]

I think Vancouver's have been the best Winter Games ever

Soulless venues, soulless games, one death and many other organization problems...one of the worst ever

[Kenadian]

^ I'll give you some of the organizational problems (some beyond human control, such as the weather) but I don't know how you can say the Vancouver Games were "soulless" when the city streets were always busy with activity and smiling faces and the venues were almost all full. You can't say that about Athens, Torino, and Beijing. By all accounts I've come across, they were the most spirited games since Sydney. Don't expect to see anything like that in Sochi in 3 years. But I'm willing to wager that London and Rio will very spirited.

As for 2020, well...I'd say the early favourite is Rome. The big story for me is that the number of potential applicants seems to be much lower than would be expected. Italy, Japan, and South Africa are the only places that seem to be forming serious intentions. The deadline to announce is in September of this year and the first set of bid documents is due in just over a year. Is this a residual effect of the recent recession? Or has geopolitical positioning caused some potential bidders to hold off?

[baron-pierreIV]

Or has geopolitical positioning caused some potential bidders to hold off?

After the July IOC Session in Durban, I think everything will be much clearer for everyone concerned. But with the cost of waging a "bid" campaign, and the one-in-four payoff, you would think cities would play this game more strategically rather than blindly.

[emre]

After the July IOC Session in Durban, I think everything will be much clearer for everyone concerned. But with the cost of waging a "bid" campaign, and the one-in-four payoff, you would think cities would play this game more strategically rather than blindly.

it is the first time that the candidates are still not certain till the last summer games over right? a bit late to announce we can say another way...

still just rome is candidate officaly as i know

[Kenadian]

The short list is normally whittled down in the year of the Olympiad held 8 years before the bid Olympiad...did that make sense? So the 2012 shortlist came out in 2004 and the 2020 shortlist will come out in 2012. The IOC makes the invitation for bids a full year or so before it makes its shortlist. For the 2020 Games, that invitation will be extended in the Spring of 2011 and NOCs have until September 2011 to respond.

In a country with multiple Olympic capable cities, the call to bid usually goes out from the NOC far ahead of the IOC's call for bids as there would be a competitive domestic process (like what the 2016 Chicago and 2012 New York bids had to go through in the USA). For the 2012, we knew many of the possible players long before the IOC invited NOCs to bid.

But for 2020? It is only a few months away from the initial invitation from the IOC and we're mostly hearing only whispers from a few interested countries, and a lot of "no thank yous". Unless things change in the next few months, this is going to be booooorrrrrrrinnnnnggggg.

[2015]

The short list is normally whittled down in the year of the Olympiad held 8 years before the bid Olympiad...did that make sense? So the 2012 shortlist came out in 2004 and the 2020 shortlist will come out in 2012. The IOC makes the invitation for bids a full year or so before it makes its shortlist. For the 2020 Games, that invitation will be extended in the Spring of 2011 and NOCs have until September 2011 to respond.

In a country with multiple Olympic capable cities, the call to bid usually goes out from the NOC far ahead of the IOC's call for bids as there would be a competitive domestic process (like what the 2016 Chicago and 2012 New York bids had to go through in the USA). For the 2012, we knew many of the possible players long before the IOC invited NOCs to bid.

But for 2020? It is only a few months away from the initial invitation from the IOC and we're mostly hearing only whispers from a few interested countries, and a lot of "no thank yous". Unless things change in the next few months, this is going to be booooorrrrrrrinnnnnggggg.

Actually Rome is so far the only "official" candidate bc also here we had a early internal competition between Venice and Rome

[Faster]

Yea the time tends to be in the 11 year range from the genesis of a games idea to completion of the games. This year is application and shortlisting. And baron isn't Durban in September?

[baron-pierreIV]

Actually Rome is so far the only "official" candidate bc also here we had a early internal competition between Venice and Rome

And I guess Durban and the RSA-NOC are all just playing bluff to throw everyone off the scent. At the last minute, they will NOT bid and say: Ha-ha, fooled yah! Wow! Great tactic!!

[LuigiVercotti]

The short list is normally whittled down in the year of the Olympiad held 8 years before the bid Olympiad...did that make sense? So the 2012 shortlist came out in 2004 and the 2020 shortlist will come out in 2012. The IOC makes the invitation for bids a full year or so before it makes its shortlist. For the 2020 Games, that invitation will be extended in the Spring of 2011 and NOCs have until September 2011 to respond.

In a country with multiple Olympic capable cities, the call to bid usually goes out from the NOC far ahead of the IOC's call for bids as there would be a competitive domestic process (like what the 2016 Chicago and 2012 New York bids had to go through in the USA). For the 2012, we knew many of the possible players long before the IOC invited NOCs to bid.

But for 2020? It is only a few months away from the initial invitation from the IOC and we're mostly hearing only whispers from a few interested countries, and a lot of "no thank yous". Unless things change in the next few months, this is going to be booooorrrrrrrinnnnnggggg.

Okay, let's assume we have four candidates (i.e. those that have either officially announced bids such as Rome or those that have been making the loudest noise and/or been discussed rather heatedly in the mainstream media or here, such as Durban, a Japanese bid and maybe a Madrid/Doha repeat from 2016). Either way that's 4, maybe 5 bids. Now unless we get some left of centre bids that have not really featured on people's radars anything less than 6 candidates would draw into focus Jacques failure to drum up enough interest in the 2020 selection process. Also potential candidate cities are obviously finally getting spooked by the combination of the technical evaluation sorting the wheat from the chaff as well as understanding that you can't expect the IOC to assist with a relatively minor city's self-promotion efforts.

Throw in the after effects of the GFC and it looks as if the glory days of the 1990s and 2000s when the IOC would received 7, 8 or even 10 bids might be on the way out. If 2020 has a relatively small field of entrants then will this be the new paradigm? Has Jacques and the IOC given their golden goose grievous bodily harm?

[Sir Rols]

Yea the time tends to be in the 11 year range from the genesis of a games idea to completion of the games. This year is application and shortlisting. And baron isn't Durban in September?

No, the Durban session's at the start of July. September, I think, is the final deadline for applicants for 2020.

I still think we'll get a few more popping out of the woodwork. I remember a lot of people were also saying 2016 was looking to be a boring line-up with only the likes of the USA, Madrid and Japan committed at this equivalent stage of the race. Look for a few roughies to emerge around and after Durban.

[LuigiVercotti]

No, the Durban session's at the start of July. September, I think, is the final deadline for applicants for 2020.

I still think we'll get a few more popping out of the woodwork. I remember a lot of people were also saying 2016 was looking to be a boring line-up with only the likes of the USA, Madrid and Japan committed at this equivalent stage of the race. Look for a few roughies to emerge around and after Durban.

Hope Delhi decides to take a potshot