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Munich's bid in serious danger?

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The trouble with the farmers in Garmisch-Partenkirchen gets more and more serious: 59 farmers still don't want to sell their property for the preparation of the ski venues for the Munich 2018 bid (according to the farmers, all properties are within the area enclosed by the security fence which would have to be erected for the Games). The farmers even sent a letter to the Bavarian state government, demanding the bid to be cancelled. If the Bavarian government doesn't comply until December 22, the farmers want to address the IOC to tell them that their properties can't be used for the 2018 Games.

If the bid committee and the farmers can't settle their conflict, it could be that the organisers have to look for an alternate ski venue.

I guess the PyeongChang bidders are already rubbing their hands, watching all the trouble the Annecy and Munich bids are in right now...

Here's an article about the farmers' protests (in German): http://www.spiegel.de/sport/sonst/0,1518,734470,00.html

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Yeah, now what was Mo saying about Munich having 2018 in the bag?

That prediction would have been very hazardous anyway -- bearing in mind that there's third-time bidder PyeongChang as rival, with the important Olympic sponsor Samsung behind it. And after the IOC's decision for Sochi and especially after FIFA's decision for Russia and Qatar, I fear anyway that the big money could decide also the election for the 2018 Winter Games.

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Yeah, now what was Mo saying about Munich having 2018 in the bag?

:lol:

That prediction would have been very hazardous anyway

That never stopped some Munich trumpeters from being that hazardous nonetheless.

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... well, I still have confindence that the Munich2018 bid will go on - the reaction of farmers is a kind of extreme in my point of view and mirror in a kind of "last minute panic" - the sentence "we go to the IOC and tell them" by them is quite strange...

Furthermore I have the impression some of them want to push their luck and get more money

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It's a concern yes, but will the interests of Bavarian farmers be part of the main decision process for the likes of the IOC when you have Thomas Bach sitting front and centre as one of the key Executive Committee members? Of course not. Remember the issues relating to Lillehammer and Nagano and the prospective use of public land and/or ski resort property and how they impacted upon their bids? Nada...zip...zilch.

The biggest battle for the Munich bid team isn't defending their votes within the IOC membership; I suspect a sizeable core have already made their decisions based on either alliances/sympathy with Bach, the falling apart of Annency's bid or simple self interest. This is a problem more the the Munich bid team to sell to their domestic audience, thus maintaining that crucial nexus between political and economic support in their local area.

PC can't make any mileage out of this, however as Olympian says the combination of huge financial support and reinforced links with the IOC membership thanks to their consecutive bids will help for sure. On the other hand since the demise of Mickey Kim South Korea has not got a powerful voice on their behalf in the IOC.

So I'd say it's still too early to record the Munich bid in danger of toppling over, but it is a significant irritant.

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The trouble is, it's all becoming a bit of an image and perception and momentum problem now. By itself, the issue's not a deal-breaker or unsolvable. But it's just been dragging on too, too long. If it had been dealt with quickly and decisively, it would probably be all but forgotten now. But to have this as an ongoing background nuisance, just at a time when the bids should be hitting their straps for the final six months run-home when perceptions and hype should be coming to the fore, is far from helpful.

My sympathies are still with Munich. But between the Garmish farmers and the Federal Greens, the Munich "story" is just getting swamped. It's not too late to retrieve it (I hope), but I'd sure as hell not want this all dragging into the New Year as a deadweight if I was on the bid team.

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The trouble is, it's all becoming a bit of an image and perception and momentum problem now. By itself, the issue's not a deal-breaker or unsolvable. But it's just been dragging on too, too long. If it had been dealt with quickly and decisively, it would probably be all but forgotten now. But to have this as an ongoing background nuisance, just at a time when the bids should be hitting their straps for the final six months run-home when perceptions and hype should be coming to the fore, is far from helpful.

My sympathies are still with Munich. But between the Garmish farmers and the Federal Greens, the Munich "story" is just getting swamped. It's not too late to retrieve it (I hope), but I'd sure as hell not want this all dragging into the New Year as a deadweight if I was on the bid team.

Question is Rols, how much of what we are hearing about the cranky Bavarian farmers and the unhappy Greens is shaping the minds of the IOC membership who have Thomas Bach and Katarina Witt amongst others in their ear on a regular basis? Aside from Bach and his colleagues who might be regularly checking the web for negative stories or fielding interviews etc from FAZ, ARD etc etc will the vast majority of the IOC members be engaged with these stories more than catching up with their 'alten kameraden' at all the bean feasts the members and bid committee folk attend around the world?

It's not an issue to be ignored for sure, but my expectation is that when (for example) Danny Jordaan, John Coates or even Jacques themselves sit down across the buffet bar with Thomas and Katarina they won't be getting too mired down in talk about the greens or farmers. They'll be more interested in what kind of money will a Munich games pump into the IOC coffers, whether TB is looking to be nominated as JR's successor, what TV rights deals will be needed for everyone's benefit or even will the athletes get duchessed like the sporting VIPs the IOC wants us to see them as.

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Of course, in any race, a large chunk of the voters are already committed before the ink's even dry on the application papers. And, yeah, the Bach factor is in play as well, but I don't think that strongly plays one way or the other - I'd expect some would support Munich in the idea of currying favour with the expected future boss, and others would specifically NOT support Munich on the notion that both a hosting and a President-presumptive is too much of a good thing for Germany. I expect both sides would balance each other out.

But I'd be certain too that a large chunk of members (especially the ones from non-wintery locales) will also be uncommitted right up to the immediate approach to the vote. Which is why the final momentum is all important. Marketing the story and dominating the hype in the run home is vital - I think most bids are won or lost or confirmed in those penultimate months. You can afford your slip-ups early in the race, but you've gotta be on-target and non-distracted by the time the final evaluation teams make their whistle stops and after.

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Of course, in any race, a large chunk of the voters are already committed before the ink's even dry on the application papers. And, yeah, the Bach factor is in play as well, but I don't think that strongly plays one way or the other - I'd expect some would support Munich in the idea of currying favour with the expected future boss, and others would specifically NOT support Munich on the notion that both a hosting and a President-presumptive is too much of a good thing for Germany. I expect both sides would balance each other out.

But I'd be certain too that a large chunk of members (especially the ones from non-wintery locales) will also be uncommitted right up to the immediate approach to the vote. Which is why the final momentum is all important. Marketing the story and dominating the hype in the run home is vital - I think most bids are won or lost or confirmed in those penultimate months. You can afford your slip-ups early in the race, but you've gotta be on-target and non-distracted by the time the final evaluation teams make their whistle stops and after.

Certainly agree with the Bach factor being an influence both for and against Munich and the balancing out will be undefinable for us outsiders. However I'm unsure if those IOC members from non-winter countries will again be influenced by marketing and presentations or press furores. If Bach and Witt and anyone else from Munich 2018 fronts up to say a meeting of ANOC members and then makes big promises re supporting African athlete's attending their games or even talking to African IOC members about a prospective Durban 2020 bid, well that would be far more important in my opinion than hype and marketing.

Guess that's my cynical interpretation of what I see as a bunch of byzantine members of an exclusive club :lol:

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Naturally, Byzantine IOC politics always comes into it - but I'd always be wary of giving it too much weight as well. More I'd see it as one of the factors among many. Unlike FIFA, the IOC is too large and diverse for too many over-arching conspiracies.

I'm a bit with Mo on this - not the importance of renders exclusively per se, but the overall story and marketing packaging, especially in the run home. I'd say without doubt the likes of Sochi, London and Sydney won their hostings on the back of the home stretch momentum and marketing. But you don't get the chance to build that momentum when you're faced with persistent negative distractions (just ask Chicago about that). And Munich needs that momentum - I'd like to think it's a close two-horse race, but I suspect PyeonChang may well be streets ahead as the field enters the final turn.

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Well Rols I'd still err on the side of giving more credence to what the various cliques, groups or even individual IOC members are plotting in terms of how they can enrich themselves and/or push forward their political agenda either by voting for Munich or PC without paying too much attention to the PR hype or distracting stories of agitated greenies and farmers (or even artillery firing North Koreans). Just because there are more members doesn't mean there is less chance of conspiracies and hidden agendas driving decisions...let's not forget how easy its been for both ALP caucuses at state and federal levels to roll people, policies and promises when there has been dozens if not hundreds involved (dare I mention NSW's electrical sell off and the disaster that was for Iemma at the state conference few years back). Larger constituencies just mean more voters for the king makers and the power brokers. Plus in the case of the OWGs where so many IOC delegates will have almost nil engagement with winter sport I am sure we will see many vote en bloc (e.g. Asians for PC, Africans split perhaps north/south) and of course PC will have a lot of legacy from their last two bids.

Perhaps this is heretical or just too cynical but all the palaver of bid PR, domestic politics, the media buzz and the cycle of journos and even amateur pundits such as us means jackshite when it comes to the crunch. you could be six years, months weeks or hours out from the decision process it doesn't really matter how you spin the news or mollify locals concerned about their land, the environment, coming war, whatever. If you have the right men or women in your back pocket from day one by promising them the world (or at least telling them what they want is in your capacity to deliver) that's all that counts. No doubt Rio did that via Nuzman and Havelange did just that (whilst Madrid had both the WOF and son on their behalf), and of course London was able to do the same thanks to Seb Coe and Craid Reedy. Conversely both NYC 20102 and Chicago 2016 found out what happens when you can't sell your bid because the IOC members find the promises from their (in these cases American) colleagues insufficient and not fitting in with their financial/political agenda.

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I know we basically have to agree to disagree on the emphasis we give to "Byzantine power plays". I don't consider myself particularly idealistic, if anything I think I'm just cynically pragmatic and realistic, but I honestly don't think it's the be-all-and-end-all. Of course, nobody can dispute it goes on, but I really wouldn't give it any more weight than, say, cultural or linguistic or regional blocs. They exist, they account for a solid first-preference foundation base of any bid's support, but nothing more. By themselves they're usually not enough for victory and are just one of any number of factors that play a role in getting the final outcome - from what the shopping's like to rotation to personal likes and antipathies to deals done to, whether you want to to believe it or not, the technical qualities of a bid (and there ARE members who do vote on technical excellence, even if, again, it's not a decisive factor either way).

You need that bedrock support, of course, but by this stage of the cycle, I firmly believe that most of those who look to their vested interests are already "rusted on" to whichever particular bid suits their agenda. Sometimes this may well be already enough - Bejing 2008 for example. I think more often than not though, it's all still in play and the task now is to get the uncommitteds on board. Which to me is where the momentum and building the buzz comes in and the Mike Lees of the world move to the fore. It's time to bring out the vision and story and feel good factors and make sure your bid is the one that's being talked about and getting the attention. To start making your bid attraction self-fulfilling. Which the likes of Sydney and London and Sochi and Rio did to perfection.

But it's much harder, if not impossible, to do that if instead of selling your story, you're too pre-occupied with trying to stamp down on lingering brushfires - a la Chicago trying to be heard above the buzz of Brazil, all the while being drowned out by issues like the USOC Olympic TV Network, Daley's battles to get the type of financial guarantees the IOC likes and the whole "No-Chicago" circus. Which is where I see the big danger is for Munich now - trying to get to a point where they can effectively sell what Munich can bring to the games, rather than being diverted by having to neutralise lingering obstacles to getting that message across.

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... what I absolutely dislike on this reaction by the farmers is that it seems that they want to try to blackmail the Bavarian government rep. Munich bid team resp. DOSB in a way by going to a third party (IOC)...

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... what I absolutely dislike on this reaction by the farmers is that it seems that they want to try to blackmail the Bavarian government rep. Munich bid team resp. DOSB in a way by going to a third party (IOC)...

Exactly. And that shows that they want to destroy the whole bid out of pure malice, and not only because they defend their own interests. And I'm certain that IOC takes strong notice of what currently happens in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, and it will certainly remember still on July 6, 2011 that they once got that particular letter of the Garmisch farmers (I still hope the farmers will never put it in the mail). It's unclear whether these events and that letter will still be powerful enough to significantly influence the IOC's vote on July 6, but I'd rather see those quarrels finished quickly if Munich still wants to keep a chance in this race.

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Did anybody watch the paralell slalom this evening in Munich? 20'000 spectators provided a good athmosphere and a great support for Munichs bid.

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Yeah - I watched it...

And I agree it was a great support for Munichs bid

Good to see such big numbers but a couple of questions..

Was the Munich 2018 bid an integral part of the evening's presentations (you know, things like bid logos, committee members etc being on show)?

Any IOC members in at the event aside from Germans?

Would this positive bid-related news get swamped under the Rio 2016 launch?

How might such a positive story offset the cranky farmers recent protests?

Having said all that it would be interesting to see if PyeongChang could muster similar numbers for an alpine sports event held outside an Olympic competition. Aside from their perennial interest in short track speed skating how much popular local support is there for the winter sports? Somehow I suspect not that much...

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Having said all that it would be interesting to see if PyeongChang could muster similar numbers for an alpine sports event held outside an Olympic competition. Aside from their perennial interest in short track speed skating how much popular local support is there for the winter sports? Somehow I suspect not that much...

I'm sure certainly a lot more than a certain desert sheikdom has for football!!

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I'm sure certainly a lot more than a certain desert sheikdom has for football!!

Well we'll be finding out in a few days Baron thanks to a certain AFC Championship.

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Good to see such big numbers but a couple of questions..

Was the Munich 2018 bid an integral part of the evening's presentations (you know, things like bid logos, committee members etc being on show)?

yes

Any IOC members in at the event aside from Germans?

I haven't read about this in the German newspapers..

Would this positive bid-related news get swamped under the Rio 2016 launch?

The Rio 2016 logo launch was in the news here on new years day - the parallel slalom event in the Olympic Park was/is in the news yesterday and today

How might such a positive story offset the cranky farmers recent protests?

well - it is interesting that from the 59 farmers, who "signed" the letter, a small percentage is affected by the Olympic plannings - and there are still talks with these farmers - furthermore it is very "strange" that a letter by a laywer becomes public...

I think such event will have an impact on the talks with the farmers - furthermore Bach mentioned that there had been such problems at previous Olympic Games and that is kind of normality...

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Would this positive bid-related news get swamped under the Rio 2016 launch?

Not to take this off topic, but if Germany was anything like the UK, there was barely a mention of Rio's logo launch.

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Not to take this off topic, but if Germany was anything like the UK, there was barely a mention of Rio's logo launch.

Well here in Australia neither the Rio logo launch nor the upcoming 2018 OWG announcement got any significant coverage. I did see footage from Rio on Sky News but that was the some total.

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