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2020 Olympics short list


Triffle

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Wow, having not been on here in awhile and therefore unable to correct some of the the utterly fly by night comments i will attempt to clarify some of the claims made about Durban.

Firstly, while it may appear to most of you that Durban is South Africa's 3rd City from a global image perspective, it is actually the countries 2nd city from a population size and GDP standing. Its city budget is also larger than that of Cape Town. Yes the city lacks the global image that Cape Town gets because of its mountain, but when it comes to pure economy, it is bigger. But then you would not be having this argument if it was Cape Town bidding.

Durban has more past events experience than alot of bidding cities. Yes the only multisport events the city has held have been SA domestic events, but we have hosted the World Senior Athletic Champs, The Swimming World Cup in our Kings Park Aquatic Centre for 6 seasons(which yes does exist, but would recieve a major overhaul for an Olympic bid, more than likely the new icon build for the event since we already have the stadium). We also hosted the International Paraplegic World Swimming Championships in 2006. In 2013 we will host the World Transplant Games (yes a bit late in the decision cycle for host, but we have secured them already. Additionally the city is likely to bid for the 2017 World Student Games, where entries close in May this year. I could go on and on with other events, but the clear picture is that Durban knows how to host large sports events (I have a list in the Durban 2020 thread). But plainly put Durban has best history in SA of large event hosting.

On top of that the city has the largest convention facilities in the country, just hosted the UN/IOC sports summit in December, has a massive number of conference throughout the year with many over 5000 delegates, the IOC event in June and COP17 with 30000-40000 people in November. We have the manpower and expertise to host these events and are building a formidable reportoire - so its not just the "give it Africa card", i actually find that insulting. And if you say you need 100000m2 for media centre, no problem, there is a massive site right next to the ICC complex called the Centrum site, and there is more than enough space to knock that up - i really do not think thats a crux of anything, very few cities have that kinda of empty space waiting.

Hotels is an issue though, if you only look at hotels. The city and its north and south coasts are the tourist epicentre of South Africa, host to more tourists than any other destination every year. There are masses of timeshare, guest houses, b&b's and rental homes, so much so that the coast immediately north of Durban (from Umdloti -(30km from cbd) to Tinley Manor (80km from cbd) the population more than triples in peak seasons. But if it is only hotels you look at then yes we are short. In the region of 2000 rooms were added before the World Cup and another 600 odd opened after the World Cup last year. This year we have just over 400 new rooms coming on stream. Yes drips in the big scheme of things, but this is 2011, 9 years before the event. There are other ways to counter this as have been mentioned and i am sure more than 4000 rooms will be added before 2020 naturally in the city region anyway.

Then we get to weather. June/July is sublime in Durban. not too hot, no humidity, but warm enough to still head down to the beach - as was seen during the world cup. It is almost perfect conditions for sport to take place in - and the city knows this, and come June, so will the IOC.

I am in no way saying Durban is the perfect host, we have alot of things to overcome from a perceptions and reality standpoint. But, if you have walked the cities sports precinct, right next to the indian ocean, a short stroll form the cities prime beaches and masses of hotels. And you see that most facilities will be within walking distance of this hub therefore promting the green agenda too. When you walk it and see it its not hard to see that this is a world beating position.

Jostling needs to take place of course. But there are a few other things that work in South Africa's favour besides some people high up in the IOC. We are now part of BRIC (the grouping of major emerging markets - Brazil, Russia, India, China and now South Africa.) This is an alliance we can most definately use in our favour. Additionally we have a separate trade and innovation alliance BISA (Brazil, India, South Africa). They are again cogs that can work in the countries favour if all those nations are on our side and convincing those in their regions too.

Yes its a big political game, and i might be going on a limb here, but i honestly think that besides Rome, Durban is the only mentioned city that really seems like it could be the 2020 winner. Madrid is wishful thinking looking at failed attempts and how close they are to 1992. Also Spain is in the sh*t economically. Istanbul if they bid might look decent but i dont know what but it doesnt feel right. Cant see Tokyo bidding and Hiroshima is votes on a plate for everyone else it would seem based peoples comments.

Interesting road ahead

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And Yes we had airport issues, mainly caused by private jets parking and refusing to move. The airport was not even open for 2 months by that time, it was a highly irregular situation. By 2020 the new Durban airport will have completed its first expansion project taking capacity to 15million. Lessons would have been learnt, i hardly think it is anything to even talk about.

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Really? Cities like Seville, Leipzig & Lille (which is merely a fraction of the size of Durban, btw) are "safer, better known & have less 'organizational issues'" than Durban? :blink: Think again. With the exception of MAYBE Seville.. Leipzig & Lille are nowhere on the radar screen & neither of them are nowhere near the size & infrastructure of Durban.

And why do you incessantly make this apples to oranges comparison. Like I've said before, all those cities are a fraction of the size of Durban (especially Lille) & are in countries that have already hosted the Olympic Games. Again, the *Africa Factor* would be a HUGE plus for a Durban bid.

And you're right, Recife & Salvador wouldn't cut it. Just like Port Elizabeth in South Africa wouldn't cut it, either. Lets keep things in perspective, shall we.

Leipzig or Lille have the same level of infrastructure than Durban... But Durban has a most probability than this cities to host WOG

But After Fifa world cup, I think south africa will have lot of economical difficult to host quickly another important event like SOG... maybe after 2030

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But you're assuming that Tokyo is going to bid. As of late, Tokyo hasn't even made a peep about 2020. And the president of the JOC wants to advocate Hiroshima to bid if Tokyo doesn't. If the JOC were dumb enough to go with Hiroshima, that would automatically give Durban a big boost before the 2020 race has even officially begun. Hiroshima would be the Annecy of 2020, followed by Rome (Munich) & Durban (PyeongChang).

And no one here seems to think that the IOC would "jump" for Durban. Only analyzing the situation with the potential candidates that have made noises about 2020 thus far. But you seem to think that the IOC would jump at Tokyo (which hasn't even declared any attempt) or Europe simply because Durban doesn't have the "appeal" of Cape Town or Johannesburg & doesn't have enough experience.

My point is not exactly that the IOC is going to jump at Tokyo, but that, as far as continental rotation goes, Durban is not in a position as comfortable as Rio experienced in 2009. For Rio, Asia and Europe were within the waiting period and Chicago kind of jockeyed for the same spot in Continental rotation (Americas). Besides, the US had recently hosted twice (84 and 96) and was not facing a good political moment, especially within the IOC. My opinion is that the Asian and European NOCs are going to try to preserve their spots on continental rotation in 2020 and 2024 races, which will make Durban's job very difficult.

Besides, I have doubts about Durban presenting a strong bid. The city is not as well-known withing the IOC as CT or Jo'burg. It is not clear how they are going to structure their plan to overcome their limitations such as lack of accommodation and airport size. They had issues with their main event during the 2010 WC (semifinal). Besides, they do not have the experience of handling a multi-sport event. This means a big mountain to climb to get people convinced. CT, on the other hand, had already bid before and is better known. It would benefit from past experiences, but it would have the SOG desired schedule working against it.

By the way, if Tokyo and Madrid decide to bid, it is going to be a big problem for Durban. Even if you deem them as certain losers in the process, they will be short-listed for sure. The first big fight for Durban is going to be short-listed and we don't even have the full list of bidders. I would not be surprised if Russia decides to bid with San Petesburg or Moscow as well as other Asian cities such as Doha, Dubai or a Korean city in case PC fails again.

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But After Fifa world cup, I think south africa will have lot of economical difficult to host quickly another important event like SOG... maybe after 2030

Really? Care to provide any financial numbers to back up that statement?

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The city is not as well-known withing the IOC as CT or Jo'burg.

Yet, somehow this "unknown" city landed an IOC session? and this "unknown" city will be unique among all other potential candidates in having an opportunity to show herself to ALL the IOC members.

You're taking a very Eurocentric view here. Durban is well known in Africa, the Middle East and Asia as a business center and tourist destination. Trade, flight and tourist connections with these regions have double-digit annual growth rates.

It is not clear how they are going to structure their plan to overcome their limitations such as lack of accommodation and airport size. They had issues with their main event during the 2010 WC (semifinal).

Not really. The airport had a minor issue where a few scheduled flights were unable to land due to a number of private planes having parked on the apron, blocking taxiways. The airport, open only 2 months at the time, was unprepared for this logistically. It's a mistake you make one and only once. The equipment and logistical plans are now in place to promptly remove such aircraft.

CT, on the other hand, had already bid before and is better known. It would benefit from past experiences, but it would have the SOG desired schedule working against it.

While I completely agree that CT is probably more well-known and marginally more scenic, the schedule as you point out is awful for Cape Town. Having lived in Cape Town for quite a few winters, it is my opinion that being a spectator or outdoor competitor at a SOG anytime before mid-October would seriously SUCK.

By the way, if Tokyo and Madrid decide to bid, it is going to be a big problem for Durban.

It goes without saying that a European bid will win either 2020 or 2024. That has nothing to do with Durban, and everything to do with the Eurocentric IOC. But, the converse holds: ONE of 2020 or 2024 will NOT go to Europe - and for that slot, Durban is in prime position.

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My point is not exactly that the IOC is going to jump at Tokyo, but that, as far as continental rotation goes, Durban is not in a position as comfortable as Rio experienced in 2009. For Rio, Asia and Europe were within the waiting period and Chicago kind of jockeyed for the same spot in Continental rotation (Americas). Besides, the US had recently hosted twice (84 and 96) and was not facing a good political moment, especially within the IOC. My opinion is that the Asian and European NOCs are going to try to preserve their spots on continental rotation in 2020 and 2024 races, which will make Durban's job very difficult.

Besides, I have doubts about Durban presenting a strong bid. The city is not as well-known withing the IOC as CT or Jo'burg. It is not clear how they are going to structure their plan to overcome their limitations such as lack of accommodation and airport size. They had issues with their main event during the 2010 WC (semifinal). Besides, they do not have the experience of handling a multi-sport event. This means a big mountain to climb to get people convinced. CT, on the other hand, had already bid before and is better known. It would benefit from past experiences, but it would have the SOG desired schedule working against it.

By the way, if Tokyo and Madrid decide to bid, it is going to be a big problem for Durban. Even if you deem them as certain losers in the process, they will be short-listed for sure. The first big fight for Durban is going to be short-listed and we don't even have the full list of bidders. I would not be surprised if Russia decides to bid with San Petesburg or Moscow as well as other Asian cities such as Doha, Dubai or a Korean city in case PC fails again.

You talk in circles. Tell me something new.

To you it seems that rotation is the holy grail, as it is "their turn". Well if the last few months has taught us anything, really anything can go and take place. South Africa is a red herring, we dont fall into your nice little rotation bucket and you know what, things need to be shaken up.

I see you clearly took nothing out of my post either because you bring your same points which i countered yet again. So lets try again, maybe things will sink in?

Durban will be more than well known by alot of the IOC folks after the World Cup. If that didnt work, a large number of them were in Durban in December 2010 for the UN/IOC Education, Sport and Culture event. If that didnt work, they will all be in Durban for the IOC event in June. And if lo and behold they still dont know anything about the city, then there is COP17 in November this year. Do you still think they will have no clue? How much do they really know about Cape Town other than it is pretty and has a mountain? REALLY? They would face the same job.

I just told you that the next expansion phase to 15million will be complete by 2020. Do you want me to draw the pictures too? I and others have also already told you about the accomodations options and the change likely in the years ahead. Guess didnt see that either? Yes it does remain a problem still, dramatic? No. We covered off the airport event, go read again.

You know what just go and read my entire previous post as clearly you have not.

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And Yes we had airport issues, mainly caused by private jets parking and refusing to move. The airport was not even open for 2 months by that time, it was a highly irregular situation. By 2020 the new Durban airport will have completed its first expansion project taking capacity to 15million. Lessons would have been learnt, i hardly think it is anything to even talk about.

If Durban follows Rio's path it is key to talk about what went wrong. The Durban bid team will probably have to demonstrate that they have properly diagnosed the issue and that they do have a plan to avoid it to be repeated. This was key to overcome the problems faced specially in the preparations for the 2007 PanAms.

However, I don't know if a 15 million PAX international airport is going to be enough. Rio currently has 2 airports: GIG (15 million PAX) and SDU (8 million PAX). For 2016, GIG will be expanded to 25 million and the bid book also mentioned Sao Paulo's main airport (GRU) as handling part of the traffic. All the other contenders in the 2016 bid race had airports above the 50 million PAX, if I am not mistaken.

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This is the Durban Kings Park Sports Precinct i have shown before, where the vast majority of events would be housed, basically on the beach, walking distance from hotels and the central entertainment areas...Also note how small this city of 4 million people is.

I can see the IOC hating this and it not at all being memorable

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If Durban follows Rio's path it is key to talk about what went wrong. The Durban bid team will probably have to demonstrate that they have properly diagnosed the issue and that they do have a plan to avoid it to be repeated. This was key to overcome the problems faced specially in the preparations for the 2007 PanAms.

However, I don't know if a 15 million PAX international airport is going to be enough. Rio currently has 2 airports: GIG (15 million PAX) and SDU (8 million PAX). For 2016, GIG will be expanded to 25 million and the bid book also mentioned Sao Paulo's main airport (GRU) as handling part of the traffic. All the other contenders in the 2016 bid race had airports above the 50 million PAX, if I am not mistaken.

You are forgetting one crucial thing. The airport worked perfectly the entire world cup. The problem only happened on the afternoon of the semi final as some people decided to arrive for an 8pm game at 4pm flights. This was a high crunch period.

Now the Olympics are not. The vast majority of the event is spread over the entire period. Yes heavy traffic on opening and final day, but the vast majority of people would be in the city long before the opening day. 15m pax would be way above the likely 10m pax carried at the airport per annum in 2020, so there will be excess capacity, something that does not exist in the stretched south american airports, they are already worked to their max on a day to day basis. The key thing to look at for major events is the excess capacity, if the event can fall into that, then no worries. There's no point having an airport which can handle 50m pax but is operating at 48m pax. The airport operating at 10m pax but capacity for 15m pax will perform better.

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You are forgetting one crucial thing. The airport worked perfectly the entire world cup. The problem only happened on the afternoon of the semi final as some people decided to arrive for an 8pm game at 4pm flights. This was a high crunch period.

The extra stress on the airport during the semifinals was something that could be foreseen and that should have been prevented. The conditions that contributed to that problem would not be likely to happen before, due to specific details of what FIFA calls the major matches of the world cup (opening, semis and final). For those matches, several additional requirements are imposed, besides the capacity of the stadium.

For those matches, a larger number and a higher profile of VIP invitees is expected. That's why so many private planes arrived that day.

The number of journalists covering the match is also significantly higher since there is a concentration of the press teams covering the tournament and a larger interest for the final matches. Before the quarterfinals, the media tends to be more widespread, only being concentrated on the site of the MPC/IBC. This imposed more pressure both in the airport and in the accommodations.

Finally, the lack of available hotel rooms (yes, it has to be hotel rooms for the rates to be controlled) forced the 2010 WC to implement a strategy of concentrating the guests in Jo'burg and flying them on the match day to watch it and go back home. This worked fine for most of the tournament, but under the exceptional circumstances of a semifinal match it did not accommodate the exceeding traffic.

So, the situations that led to the problem should have been part of the plans for that afternoon. A situation like that can easily be reproduced during the key events of an SOG such as the Opening Ceremony.

Now the Olympics are not. The vast majority of the event is spread over the entire period. Yes heavy traffic on opening and final day, but the vast majority of people would be in the city long before the opening day. 15m pax would be way above the likely 10m pax carried at the airport per annum in 2020, so there will be excess capacity, something that does not exist in the stretched south american airports, they are already worked to their max on a day to day basis. The key thing to look at for major events is the excess capacity, if the event can fall into that, then no worries. There's no point having an airport which can handle 50m pax but is operating at 48m pax. The airport operating at 10m pax but capacity for 15m pax will perform better.

You have to understand the role and the nature of the air traffic generated by the SOG and the WC to understand the difference. For the WC, a big number of the flights carrying fans are chartered until the quarter finals. This is a result of the policy of FIFA to control the sale of tourist packages and the reality that most fans follow their own countries playing in several cities. The vast majority of the events are seen by fans of the countries playing and the local public, which facilitate their transportation via charter flights. This creates an addition

For the SOG, most fans fly through regular commercial flights. As a result, it is very important to have not only an airport that can handle an extra traffic, but also an airport with existing connections to the main hub airports around the world. That's why all bid cities highlight this on their bid books. That's also why the IOC tends to refer to the airport overall capacity and not to the availability. Huge airports can easily deal with the additional load from an SOG without disrupting much its activities. After all, the additional load in absolute numbers is the same, but as a percentage of the regular traffic it is much smaller in a big airport.

However, if availability is the criteria, Rio currently has only 80% of the city airport capacity used (4.6 million excess capacity). The saturation of the airports in Brazil is a bigger issue in other cities such as São Paulo and Brasília.

Regarding the difference in traffic distribution, you should expect a better distribution but much more traffic than that of the WC. Now, there is no Jo'burg to serve as support. The only things Jo'burg can help with are the International Airport and the football stadium. Anyway, all the fans are going to arrive through your airport and you can expect even higher loads in the first and the last day, including the additional private jets from the VIPs. It is not only a matter of having an airport, but also of preparing to deal with the exceptional situations. That was the mistake done on the semifinal day of the WC.

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The first time I heard about Durban was in 2006 while reading Mandela's autobiography. That is neither here nor there...

Durban doesn't have the international recognition as some other Olympic cities, but it really comes down to their capabilities IMO. I like the sound of Durban 2020. It introduces a new city, as well as a new continent to the Olympic Games. The stadium is already there, and not much new construction will have to take place for the country to host Olympic soccer.

I think they can put together a compelling bid, it just comes down to whether the IOC will choose two new frontiers in a row.

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My point is not exactly that the IOC is going to jump at Tokyo, but that, as far as continental rotation goes, Durban is not in a position as comfortable as Rio experienced in 2009. For Rio, Asia and Europe were within the waiting period and Chicago kind of jockeyed for the same spot in Continental rotation (Americas). Besides, the US had recently hosted twice (84 and 96) and was not facing a good political moment, especially within the IOC. My opinion is that the Asian and European NOCs are going to try to preserve their spots on continental rotation in 2020 and 2024 races, which will make Durban's job very difficult.

Besides, I have doubts about Durban presenting a strong bid. The city is not as well-known withing the IOC as CT or Jo'burg. It is not clear how they are going to structure their plan to overcome their limitations such as lack of accommodation and airport size. They had issues with their main event during the 2010 WC (semifinal). Besides, they do not have the experience of handling a multi-sport event. This means a big mountain to climb to get people convinced. CT, on the other hand, had already bid before and is better known. It would benefit from past experiences, but it would have the SOG desired schedule working against it.

By the way, if Tokyo and Madrid decide to bid, it is going to be a big problem for Durban. Even if you deem them as certain losers in the process, they will be short-listed for sure. The first big fight for Durban is going to be short-listed and we don't even have the full list of bidders. I would not be surprised if Russia decides to bid with San Petesburg or Moscow as well as other Asian cities such as Doha, Dubai or a Korean city in case PC fails again.

I'd agree to a degree that as far as continental rotation goes, Asia & Europe would be in a better position for 2020 than they were for 2016. However, this is assuming Tokyo bids instead of Hiroshima. And any South Korean applicant would be handicapped due to their recent hosting with Seoul, & Busan also suffers from a lack of international recognition. And I also think that after FIFA awarded the 2022 WC to Qatar with much public outcry, the IOC isn't going to touch the Arabian Peninsula anytime soon, since they're going to have their plate full dealing with that huge task that is too big for that small city-nation to begin with. Not to mention the other geopolitical factors a Muslim Olympics would involve that would make the IOC pause.

For Europe, the only real contender there is, is Rome. Madrid is still too soon after Barcelona, & unless the Germans decide to bid in case Munich 2018 fails I don't see anyone else (unless Paris decides to throw in a surprise at the last minute). And since 2020 will be awarded in 2013, I don't see Russia as a big contender either for those Games, because I'm sure the IOC would at least like to see how Sochi 2014 goes first before awarding Russia another Games. So all of that still leaves the playing field stable for Durban as far as continental rotation.

And as far as Durban not being "well-known" within the IOC & not presenting a strong bid; as has been pointed out to you by others already, that will change in July with the IOC session there. And the airport 'issue' has been refutted as well. Surely within 10 years time, Durban airport would have remedied any problems that occurred during the WC semi-finals.

And of course Durban's main challenge would be to make it to candidate stage, but considering all of their attributes & more than adequate techincal capabilities, & most likely the lack of other compelling candidates, they shouldn't have that much difficulty to at least accomplish that much.

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Yet, somehow this "unknown" city landed an IOC session? and this "unknown" city will be unique among all other potential candidates in having an opportunity to show herself to ALL the IOC members.

Durban is not an exception for IOC sessions. Take a look at the most recent hosts (when it hasn't been an Olympic year):

2003 Prague, Czech Republic

2005 Singapore, Singapore

2007 Guatemala City, Guatemala

2009 Copenhagen, Denmark

2011 Durban, South Africa

2013 Buenos Aires, Argentina

I can hardly imagine any of these cities hosting the Olympics. Prague seems to be the better known and probably the best prepared for the Games, and we all know what happened in the race for 2016. Singapore was awarded the YOG, but I find it highly unlikely to host the big event. Guatemala... impossible. Copenhagen, it could host, but even if it was bidding for 2020 I think the IOC wouldn't choose it, and they know the city very well, they were there less than two years ago.

To you it seems that rotation is the holy grail, as it is "their turn".

It is. And if it wasn't because of rotation, Durban would have it really really difficult. Durban just needs to know when the perfect time to bid is, like Rio did. And even if it's not shortlisted for 2020, it can be hosting in 2024. It's just the same as Rio for 2012 and 2016.

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We have the manpower and expertise to host these events and are building a formidable reportoire - so its not just the "give it Africa card", i actually find that insulting.

I don't think anyone is saying "just give it to Africa". I think anyone here who is a proponent of a (South) African Olympics realizes that the bid at the very least has to be credible/viable/workable/doable in order to be taken seriously. And certainly Durban seems to be falling into that criteria, unlike Port Elizabeth which is a joke & is a complete mystery why the SAOC 'invited' them to bid.

However, lets be honest here to. Durban's main selling point, just like it was for Rio (or at the very least, big part of) would be about an "African" Olympics. Otherwise, why even bother mentioning 'Africa' in these forums or in general when talking about an 'African' Olympics. Certainly the IOC isn't just going to "hand it over" to Africa 'just because'. Durban is obviously going to have to prove themselves, but at the same time, it would be simplistic to think that the *Africa Factor* is not going to play a big role in the process.

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The extra stress on the airport during the semifinals was something that could be foreseen and that should have been prevented. The conditions that contributed to that problem would not be likely to happen before, due to specific details of what FIFA calls the major matches of the world cup (opening, semis and final). For those matches, several additional requirements are imposed, besides the capacity of the stadium.

For those matches, a larger number and a higher profile of VIP invitees is expected. That's why so many private planes arrived that day.

The number of journalists covering the match is also significantly higher since there is a concentration of the press teams covering the tournament and a larger interest for the final matches. Before the quarterfinals, the media tends to be more widespread, only being concentrated on the site of the MPC/IBC. This imposed more pressure both in the airport and in the accommodations.

Finally, the lack of available hotel rooms (yes, it has to be hotel rooms for the rates to be controlled) forced the 2010 WC to implement a strategy of concentrating the guests in Jo'burg and flying them on the match day to watch it and go back home. This worked fine for most of the tournament, but under the exceptional circumstances of a semifinal match it did not accommodate the exceeding traffic.

So, the situations that led to the problem should have been part of the plans for that afternoon. A situation like that can easily be reproduced during the key events of an SOG such as the Opening Ceremony.

You have to understand the role and the nature of the air traffic generated by the SOG and the WC to understand the difference. For the WC, a big number of the flights carrying fans are chartered until the quarter finals. This is a result of the policy of FIFA to control the sale of tourist packages and the reality that most fans follow their own countries playing in several cities. The vast majority of the events are seen by fans of the countries playing and the local public, which facilitate their transportation via charter flights. This creates an addition

For the SOG, most fans fly through regular commercial flights. As a result, it is very important to have not only an airport that can handle an extra traffic, but also an airport with existing connections to the main hub airports around the world. That's why all bid cities highlight this on their bid books. That's also why the IOC tends to refer to the airport overall capacity and not to the availability. Huge airports can easily deal with the additional load from an SOG without disrupting much its activities. After all, the additional load in absolute numbers is the same, but as a percentage of the regular traffic it is much smaller in a big airport.

However, if availability is the criteria, Rio currently has only 80% of the city airport capacity used (4.6 million excess capacity). The saturation of the airports in Brazil is a bigger issue in other cities such as São Paulo and Brasília.

Regarding the difference in traffic distribution, you should expect a better distribution but much more traffic than that of the WC. Now, there is no Jo'burg to serve as support. The only things Jo'burg can help with are the International Airport and the football stadium. Anyway, all the fans are going to arrive through your airport and you can expect even higher loads in the first and the last day, including the additional private jets from the VIPs. It is not only a matter of having an airport, but also of preparing to deal with the exceptional situations. That was the mistake done on the semifinal day of the WC.

Slightly incorrect here on the reason for Joburg bases. It was not due to a lack of accommodation in the Durban region, but rather due to the vast concentration of games in Johannesburg that made it far convenient to hub the packages through there. At times during the World Cup Durban and Cape Town had vast ammounts of excess accommodation, partly due to the pathetic company that is match and its ineffectiveness

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I don't think anyone is saying "just give it to Africa". I think anyone here who is a proponent of a (South) African Olympics realizes that the bid at the very least has to be credible/viable/workable/doable in order to be taken seriously. And certainly Durban seems to be falling into that criteria, unlike Port Elizabeth which is a joke & is a complete mystery why the SAOC 'invited' them to bid.

However, lets be honest here to. Durban's main selling point, just like it was for Rio (or at the very least, big part of) would be about an "African" Olympics. Otherwise, why even bother mentioning 'Africa' in these forums or in general when talking about an 'African' Olympics. Certainly the IOC isn't just going to "hand it over" to Africa 'just because'. Durban is obviously going to have to prove themselves, but at the same time, it would be simplistic to think that the *Africa Factor* is not going to play a big role in the process.

Sorry i should have made my point clearer, this was more aimed at people that say that that is all that Durban has going for it, that it is in Africa. Therefore inferring that it is far from meeting the other criteria. Of course being in Africa will help our cause to no end.

Its amazing how blinker some people are to other countries and cities around the world.

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Buenos Aires by far would be better equipped to host an Olympics than Prague.

Absolutely. Saw Prague first-hand this July and it's a smallish, lovely city but as my tourguide said: "...we've only got 1.5 mil in the city." (Far below Rogge's informal 2.5 million cutoff mark.) And having no open waters for yachting pretty much eliminates Prague/Czech Republic's Olympic chances once and for all. They should just go for a YOG.

Durban's airport issue: Dysan, isn't there an RSAir Force base w/in an hour-or-so of Durban that can supplement whatever shortcoming Durban Int'l might still have by 2020?

Dysan, if you are connected w/ the Durban 2020 braintrust (as we hope you are B) ), shouldn't you guys also be locking up the best billboard space around the IOC Convention Center at BA for 2013?? Just a suggestion.

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Dysan, if you are connected w/ the Durban 2020 braintrust (as we hope you are B) ), shouldn't you guys also be locking up the best billboard space around the IOC Convention Center at BA for 2013?? Just a suggestion.

Against IOC bidding rules. No advertising in the Session Host City in the three weeks prior to the opening of the Session.

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Against IOC bidding rules. No advertising in the Session Host City in the three weeks prior to the opening of the Session.

So...NO visits, NO advertising...but pick a city that will host your billion-dollar extravaganza 7 years hence?? Now why didn't I think of such simplistic logic?? :blink: Sounds like FIFA reasoning in picking Qatar!!

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Slightly incorrect here on the reason for Joburg bases. It was not due to a lack of accommodation in the Durban region, but rather due to the vast concentration of games in Johannesburg that made it far convenient to hub the packages through there. At times during the World Cup Durban and Cape Town had vast ammounts of excess accommodation, partly due to the pathetic company that is match and its ineffectiveness

That's not true. FIFA requires quite an extensive hotel infrastructure for any city hosting WC matches. The benchmark is that it has enough hotel bedrooms equivalent to arounf 1/3 of the city stadium capacity inside a 100km radius of the stadium. However, FIFA can bypass this requirement if another city provides enough accommodation and can be reached in less than 1:30. That's one of the reasons that contributed to the concentration of the accommodation packages in Jo'burg.

In Brazil, we are going to have the same kind of issue with most of the cities hosting WC matches. According to plans, at least half of the cities won't comply with the requirements for accommodation. This will force the division of the country in 4 clusters, in which 2 of them will have a primary city as supporting the others (Brasilia and São Paulo). In the Northeast and Southeast clusters, Rio and the Northeastern capitals will split the burden. Currently only Rio, Salvador and SP make the cut for accommodation for 2014.

Neither the airport or the accommodation issues are impossible to overcome, but they are present. The Durban bid team must figure out how to work them out and present it clearly to the IOC. The main poit is that, whatever the solution for those issues, it might have an impact on the overall games concept. For instance, if additional accommodation is placed too far from the Olympic Park, additional transport investments might be needed.

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I'd agree to a degree that as far as continental rotation goes, Asia & Europe would be in a better position for 2020 than they were for 2016. However, this is assuming Tokyo bids instead of Hiroshima. And any South Korean applicant would be handicapped due to their recent hosting with Seoul, & Busan also suffers from a lack of international recognition. And I also think that after FIFA awarded the 2022 WC to Qatar with much public outcry, the IOC isn't going to touch the Arabian Peninsula anytime soon, since they're going to have their plate full dealing with that huge task that is too big for that small city-nation to begin with. Not to mention the other geopolitical factors a Muslim Olympics would involve that would make the IOC pause.

For Europe, the only real contender there is, is Rome. Madrid is still too soon after Barcelona, & unless the Germans decide to bid in case Munich 2018 fails I don't see anyone else (unless Paris decides to throw in a surprise at the last minute). And since 2020 will be awarded in 2013, I don't see Russia as a big contender either for those Games, because I'm sure the IOC would at least like to see how Sochi 2014 goes first before awarding Russia another Games. So all of that still leaves the playing field stable for Durban as far as continental rotation.

And as far as Durban not being "well-known" within the IOC & not presenting a strong bid; as has been pointed out to you by others already, that will change in July with the IOC session there. And the airport 'issue' has been refutted as well. Surely within 10 years time, Durban airport would have remedied any problems that occurred during the WC semi-finals.

And of course Durban's main challenge would be to make it to candidate stage, but considering all of their attributes & more than adequate techincal capabilities, & most likely the lack of other compelling candidates, they shouldn't have that much difficulty to at least accomplish that much.

Well, we have to look at the bid process as a whole. The problem about Korea, Russia and other relatively developed nations bidding is that their cities would be more likely to get good scores during the application phase. Madrid and Tokyo got the highest scores in the 2016 application phase, so it would be hard to assume that they wouldn't be in the shortlist. Rome will probably be shortlisted as well. So, Durban would be fighting for the last spot, like Rio did. Rio was lucky to face Doha, that could be eliminated with a decent excuse (schedule). If Durban has to fight with a stronger contender without a weak spot such as Doha's schedule, it could be difficult even to be shortlisted.

Doha could socre very high on the application phase though, though I think this is not very likely due to the accommodation and the airport issues.

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I guess the next logical question on this thread is: will Doha be dumb, cheeky or just plain stubborn enough to bid again for the 2020 race using their "winning ways" of Zurich...knowing that Durban and Rome are the 2 serious rivals for 2020?

In my last sentence I made a mistake. It should be written Durban, not Doha. Anyway, I think Doha will bid again, if not for 2020, it will for 2024. Unless they think of something to change the climate of the city, the IOC has already found an excuse to exclude it.

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