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2020 Olympics short list


Triffle

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So now that the World Cup bids have been decided, and no one cares about the winter games, the world's attention should now shift to 2020!!! What cities do people believe will make the 2020 shortlist?

I'm thinking:

- Durban (probably similar to Rio; not the best technical bid but the whole "new continent" appeal)

- Rome (should have an excellent technical bid which will probably be enough)

- Tokyo (if they bid, Tokyo will definately make the shortlist; so I'm hoping they DO actually bid and I think they will. Pyeongchang 2018 will obviously hurt their chances of winning, and consideration for bidding, but not making the shortlist)

- Madrid (probs will bid again after Spain's failure)

- Istanbul (probably will bid and the lack of major cities should help them make the shortlist if they bid)

There won't be any bids from Latin America viable enough to make the shortlist; I think the USA will renege bidding and focus on 2022/2024/2026; Canada I doubt will bid so soon after 2010 (2024/2028 is more realistic); no other viable candidates from Africa; Korea's focus on 2018 means they won't be bidding; India is decades away from being ready; no viable candidates from South-East Asia, Central Asia; Dubai may bid but the controversy regarding the Qatar decision and the climate issue i think (and hope!) will prevent Dubai from being shortlisted; Germany, France focusing on 2018 so no Summer bids for 2020. Budapest is probably the only other competitor I can think of but I doubt they would be ahead of the aforementioned 5.

Personally my support would be Tokyo> Durban(only b/c I would prefer Cape Town; whom can host 2028)> Istanbul (I support Istanbul hosting in the near future but I don't want them jeopardising Paris 1924 + 100); Rome> Madrid (do the Spanish even realise they hosted the 5th most recent games?)

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There are many areas where Durban will fall short but in terms of the Games concept you have a 4-5km dedicated stretch of land from the CBD to the main stadium for the Olympic Games.On the other end is the beach.

There is no real comparison of the Games concept risk between Rio and Durban.

That said, while Durban may be a strong favourite, Rome is currently the favourite.

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It should go to Africa if the IOC would help. FIFA went and it is sad to see how IOC has turn its back on Africa. The Olympic Games can not call themselves a global event until Africa host the Olympics. But to Host the Olympics costs more than The World Cup and Africa can't afford it. The IOC has made the Olympics a rich nation event.

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It should go to Africa if the IOC would help. FIFA went and it is sad to see how IOC has turn its back on Africa. The Olympic Games can not call themselves a global event until Africa host the Olympics. But to Host the Olympics costs more than The World Cup and Africa can't afford it. The IOC has made the Olympics a rich nation event.

How has the IOC turned its back on Africa? Africa has only ever submitted one serious bid for the Olympics - Cape Town's bid in the mid 1990s for the Games of 2004. Given the scarcity of opportunities for hosting the Olympics and the growing number of cities that want to host the Games, I'd hardly call it a continental snub.

But there are standards to adhere to and countries should only host these kind of international events if they meet and afford those standards. Your bleeding heart may not understand it, but if a country has issues in its own survival and development, why should they focus their energies and money on a two week sporting event? That is reckless and irresponsible.

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Yup. Completely abandoned Africa.

Sports for hope

This is supposed to be the first of many around the world. The Olympics are a global movement. It doesn't matter where they are held. Is the UN not global because it is based in New York and not Lagos? The IOC are doing a great thing by building these around the world.

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Do not rule out possibility of a Middle East bid though, everyone seems to forget about them.

Nobody "forgets" about them. Only being realistic about their chances. Even the IOC themselves ruled out Doha from contention for the 2016 Olymmpics.

Just because FIFA was irresponsible enough to award the World Cup to a nation that only boasts the capacity of holding just a couple of matches of the whole darn tournament, does not automatically dictate that the IOC will just follow suit.

The IOC is a totally different sporting body, with many, many more members that wouldn't be as easily influenced or munipulated by a single person or entity. An international sporting organization that adheres to 27 OTHER sports (unlike FIFA's ONE, soccer), & over 200 NOC's with each & every single one of them having their own interests in mind. The politics of the IOC & FIFA are a totally different kettle of fish entirely.

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Nobody "forgets" about them. Only being realistic about their chances. Even the IOC themselves ruled out Doha from contention for the 2016 Olymmpics.

Just because FIFA was irresponsible enough to award the World Cup to a nation that only boasts the capacity of holding just a couple of matches of the whole darn tournament, does not automatically dictate that the IOC will just follow suit.

The IOC is a totally different sporting body, with many, many more members that wouldn't be as easily influenced or munipulated by a single person or entity. An international sporting organization that adheres to 27 OTHER sports (unlike FIFA's ONE, soccer), & over 200 NOC's with each & every single one of them having their own interests in mind. The politics of the IOC & FIFA are a totally different kettle of fish entirely.

The IOC needs FIFA, FIFA does not need the IOC. Why won't FIFA allow the best players in the Olympics? The World cup is bigger than the Olympics. Remember Spain came to a halt to watch the final game. What IOC sees is money. Not friendship and peace (the late JAS).

Every thinks that are many cities want the games but with government belt tightening the list will grow smaller. London is way over budget. The next city to get 2020 might have to no government financial support. That could change a lots things. We don't see the opposition to the Olympics in the media but it is a growing force, so the IOC might want to play it safe.

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#1 - The World cup is bigger than the Olympics.

#2 - Remember Spain came to a halt to watch the final game.

Nah. It's been proven and discussed here that the (Summer) Olympics are BIGGER than the World Cup. Remember FIFA is only ONE sport. The IOC covers 25 active summer, a DOZEN Winter sports PLUS there are another two dozen other federations that align themselves with the IOC (these are the ones that compete in THE WORLD GAMES), hoping to get into the Olympics someday. So the IOC is an umbrella organization for at LEAST 50 sports federations vs. FIFA's only one.

#2 - I think the UK almost came to a halt watching Torvill-and-Dean compete again at the Lillehammer Olympics. When they only got the Bronze medal, there was an absolutely noticeable rise in gas burners in the UK because thousands of TV viewers had to go to the stove to get themselves a freah pot of tea.

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Football is an obsession in Europe and it is a religion in Central and South America. The rating for the 2010 world cup was one of the highest. Baron I don't where your from but answer me the following questions 1. What is the number one sport in the world? 2. Why doesn't FIFA allow the best to compete in the Olympics. The World Cup was sold out but there many event in Olympics that had empyt seat.

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The IOC needs FIFA, FIFA does not need the IOC. Why won't FIFA allow the best players in the Olympics? The World cup is bigger than the Olympics. Remember Spain came to a halt to watch the final game. What IOC sees is money. Not friendship and peace (the late JAS).

IOC needs FIFA? I doubt it would make much difference if football was at the games or not - it's hardly the most watched event at the Olympics. Now the likes of athyletics, swimming and gymnastics are a different matter.

As to which is bigger? It's Apples and Oranges and been debated many times here, as Baron said. Suffice to say that the WC is big, but not a huge, deal in the likes of the US and Oz. And the WC might be the major single sporting event, but the Games are far more than just sports.

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I agree football is the #1 sport in the World but IOC does not 'need' FIFA. When you think back to any Olympic tournaments, football is hardly on anyone's most memorable list. People don't tune into the Olympics for football because WC is already wildly successful.

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The World Cup was sold out but there many event in Olympics that had empyt seat.

ANother exaggeration. When did it sell out? Even 1994 in the US was NOT completely sold out. I believe it averaged from 89% - 94% per game-- the highest attendance of any World Cup in history. But even that was NOT a sell-out. WC is big only in ONE sport. I already told you the IOC has about 49 other federations to deal with, other than FIFA. As for me, yeah I watch soccer when it's around but if it completely vanished tomorrow, it wouldn't take anything from my life. I have so MANY other diversions to keep me occupied. Soccer is just sooooooooooooo over-rated!!

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I would be very careful with the predictions for 2020 race. I think that Durban is not the right choice if South Africa is really expecting to win in 2013, for instance. Durban does not have the same profile as Cape Town or even Jo'burg. Besides, there was a big logistical problem in Durban during the WC semifinals, in which several fans and officials could not get to the stadium in time, because of a massive airport overload. So, I would be a little bit cautious before giving Durban 2020 that much credit. Besides, Durban needs more testing before being awarded the SOGs. A World Cup is not a multi-sport event and is not as intensive as the SOGs. Hosting a WC means hosting around a maximum of 8 matches of around 2 hours during 30 days in one part of the city. The logistical challenge of the SOGs is to host several events in several spots at the same time during the whole day for 15 days. So, hosting at least a CWG would be helpful to test the concept.

Besides, there is the whole political aspect of the race itself. Has the South African NOC favors to collect? Are the African NOCs united around the Durban bid? Which arrangements of the 2016 race were left to be settled in the 2020 race? Are there other bidders or electoral clocks in the IOC committed to a different agenda?

For me, Asian NOCs will tend to support Tokyo even harder this time. They might even be willing to choose an European host over an African one. If 2020 is not awarded either to an Asian or an European host, this means that in 2024 there will be 12 years since the last SOG in Europe. This means that 2024 would be Europe's turn, which would make Asia wait at least 20 years since 2008. So, I believe that in such a scenario an "Erurasian" agreement is possible.

Moreover, according to the accounts of the 2016 race, most of the African votes awarded to Rio were gathered with the promise to allow those countries to use the Rio Olympic Training Center for free. This kind of arrangement would not lead to a support from the Brazilian NOC and its allies to an African bidder. It is more likely to have the people behind Rio 2016 owing favors to other groups, particularly European NOCs.

Finally, it is important to understand that the election for 2016 was not a simple choice for a white spot. It was kind of consensual that the Americas were due as a full continent, unlike the Asian and European opponents, which looked a little "to soon after" (Lonodon and Beijing). There was a clear lack of empathy between the IOC and the USOC. Rio ran a very good and strong campaign and had recently held very successful and above-standard PanAms in 2007. Not to mention that Brazil is much more powerful economically, Rio is better known worldwide and that the Brazilian IOC members (JH and Nuzman) are strong and respected among their peers.

Durban might win and 2020 is a good opportunity to do so, but it won't be easy. The IOC is not going to jump at it, as many people seem to think. Europe and espcially Asia will not let it go so easily this time.

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Durban might win and 2020 is a good opportunity to do so, but it won't be easy. The IOC is not going to jump at it, as many people seem to think. Europe and espcially Asia will not let it go so easily this time.

As always, a very thorough analysis, A. But with the World Cup awards of 2018 and 2022, I think the winds of going new frontiers will be too hard to buck. Europe will definitely get 2024 and as we all know, the "8"s are reserved for Asia. So, if PyongChang wins in July, then Tokyo will just have to wait for 2028.

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As always, a very thorough analysis, A. But with the World Cup awards of 2018 and 2022, I think the winds of going new frontiers will be too hard to buck. Europe will definitely get 2024 and as we all know, the "8"s are reserved for Asia. So, if PyongChang wins in July, then Tokyo will just have to wait for 2028.

I am not that sure about the rotation working that way. North America is probably going to come strong for at least 2028, with a very likely American and a Canadian bidder (Toronto), which adds up to the fight and I believe that Asia is growing to fast to be satisfied with the 8's. The number of Asian prospective bidders is increasing fast, which will end up leading to a smaller interval between Asian hosts. The main reason why European city host very often is the availability of prospective bidders. Asia is rising up in this criteria with cities both in the Far East, Indian Subcontinent and Middle East lining up to host in the near future. I really can see future Asian hosts coming up every 12 years, while European hosts within 8 years becoming almost impossible.

So, I really think that South Africa won't have an easy journey. In fact, if a middle eastern city gets short-listed I think that even full African support might be in jeopardy, since many African IOC mebmbers are North African, feeling more compelled to side with other Arabs more than with other Africans.

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I couldn't agree more with you. Also, the IOC didn't accept the bids from other third (or further) cities like Leipzig, Lille or Seville - and I think the three of them are safer, better known and, probably, with less organization issues than Durban. Of course I'm not ruling out Durban, but it's not the same case as Rio. Would have the Games been awarded to Brazil if they had bid with a third city like Brasilia, Belo Horizonte, Recife, Salvador (Bahia), etc. only because of being South American? I don't think so...

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But I think in Durban's case -- while CT is city #2 and the most photogenic SA city, Durban was picked for the better climate in the southern July...and the Travel Agents' Association of RSA unequivocally endorsed Durban. Surely, that sector of the travel industry knows quite a bit about lodging and the logistics of hosting a gargantuan international event. And Durban will have the most golden opportunity next year that NO RECENT Olympic wannabee city has had: that of the entire IOC membership actually putting their boots on the ground of a candidate city. That, PLUS Africa being the last "unhosted" continent, will be its biggest aces!!

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But I think in Durban's case -- while CT is city #2 and the most photogenic SA city, Durban was picked for the better climate in the southern July...and the Travel Agents' Association of RSA unequivocally endorsed Durban. Surely, that sector of the travel industry knows quite a bit about lodging and the logistics of hosting a gargantuan international event. And Durban will have the most golden opportunity next year that NO RECENT Olympic wannabee city has had: that of the entire IOC membership actually putting their boots on the ground of a candidate city. That, PLUS Africa being the last "unhosted" continent, will be its biggest aces!!

I don't disagree with you, but I don't think that just because Rio won relatively easily on 2009 and, even less because FIFA is taking the WC to new frontiers, the IOC would be willing to take the SOG to Africa that fast. FIFA's decisions are backed by the will of a small group on its top and that is not likely to be reproduced in the IOC. There are too many interests in the way of awarding the Games to Africa that were not present in the 2016 race. In FIFA, those interests could be easily offset by some manipulation done by its controlling group, which clears the way more easily to new frontiers.

Anyway, the support by the TA Association of RSA might be linked to their desire to promote the development of the tourist infrastructure and the recognition of Durban worldwide, rather than an actual existing capability. However, the climate, for me, is the biggest advantage that Durban has over CT.

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Maybe 2020 is the year Istanbul finally claims the prize.

I've said it before (particularly to Fatix) and I'll say it again...where is the political powerbase of any bid for Istanbul on the IOC exec board (where any deal needs to attract significant proponents). Durban currently has Ramsamy and probably Fredericks in their corner plus who is to say how Jacques might feel about being seen to chase down a South African city for an SOGs so soon after Septic Blather stole the IOC thunder with SA 2010. But Rome has Pescante and possibly other Europeans in their corner (depending upon the 2018 vote), plus Nawal El Moutawakel has previously nailed her flag to the post re African suitability to host a SOGs and her voice will carry some weight.

Right now I suspect it's a two horse race probably between Rome and Durban, with the smokies being a Japanese bid and Madrid. Then again a week is a long time in politics and as Athens, Beijing, Paris, New York and Chicago have all found out just because you caught the punter's eyes early in the race doesn't mean you'll be there at the finishing post.

Methinks the key vote on the exec board will be Carrion (he of the TV rights negotiation). Get him onside (plus help him to see the financial benefits of a great TV revenue deal) and you might be the name called out 2 years from now.

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2020 seems a lot more interesting to me now...

If we consider continental rotation as staring after Helsinki 1952, we can say the following:

- Europe has never waited longer than 12 years.

- Asias has never waited longer than 24 years and seem to be closing the gap between SOGs, espcially if we consider Oceania as part of their rotation, their waiting period has fallen below 12 years in recent times (Seoul 88, Sydney 2000 and Beijing 2008).

- The Americas have never waited longer than 20 years.

By the way, the last time North America waited more than 20 years was between LA 32 and Mexico 68, but those 36 years included World War II.

Since Asia tends to host more frequently and Europe might have to host less often to accommodate the new frontiers, we can estimate that those 2 continents would be targeting a 12-year maximum waiting period between hosting the SOGs, with Asia possibly giving up its spot to Oceania, eventually. It is not difficult to assume that the Americas would also fight for the same kind of arrangement, creating a 3 SOG rotation which would make it harder for Africa to squeeze in.

Well, let's work with a scenario in which Durban takes the 2020 SOG. Then 2024 would be 12 years after London (Europe's limit) and 16 years after Beijing (beyond Asia/Oceania limit). Not to violate the rules above, it would be Europe's turn. In that way, Asia would be accepting a 20-year rotation for itself. However, if that happened 2028 would become quite hard, since if an Asian country takes 2028, the Americas would be due for 16 years and North America for 36, without any cancellation.

Therefore, I think that if the Asian NOCs and the European NOCs realize that situation, they will fight hard to keep the next 2 editions for themselves. The Africans would have to divide these voters to get through and win. They won't find an open spot in Continental Rotation as Rio did, when both Europe and Asia were very much inside their waiting period and the other American candidate was a US city, which was the last country from the continent to have hosted.

My guess is that when continental rotation is in place, geographical block voting is more likely. For both Europe and Asia, allowing their waiting period increase is going to pile up too many candidates waiting for their turn, which might become difficult to manage.

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