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Who do you think will win?


ghost1

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I think the only reason PC is thought as favourite now is the damn good PR. Its obvious that PC is the only city that has published its plans, even Salzburg didn't yet. So it can happen that after first plans are known... Borjomi is the favourite. It's just that the koreans are advertising the bid on every single occasion, which, of course, is a winning strategy, but how can we say whos's first when we have nothing to compare with?

Food for thought

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But where is the largest market for winter sports products ? In the impoverished and struggling Eastern Europe ? in the still wealthy but rapidly declining Western Europe ? in booming Asia ?

  I'm so appaled and this message is so pathetic and dire that I've hesitated for along time before saying something. So we for sure should give the WOG to the city with the largest market for winter sports products. I wonder why the IOC members havent thought about this earlier, this should be their only criteria, since it has a lot to deal with sport and olympism. Very logical and relevant choice. I just have 3 things in mind when I read such aberrations:

- You're kidding and you don't really think so.

_ You dont especially like the Olympic Games and you just consider things in terms of business

- You need  :help:

Since when does Western Europe decline? And are you really sure all Chinese people are wealthy, and live in a land of milk and honey while ALL Eastern Europeans are poor and wretched? Eastern Europe is slowly growing too, since they're taking part to the EU. I got a Polish friend who's much wealthier than many Chinese people by the way.

If you're unable to talk about olympism and have just business in mind I suggest you leave this forum and look for a stock exchange and business forum. There's plenty of them. :glare:

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But where is the largest market for winter sports products ? In the impoverished and struggling Eastern Europe ? in the still wealthy but rapidly declining Western Europe ? in booming Asia ?

  I'm so appaled and this message is so pathetic and dire that I've hesitated for along time before saying something. So we for sure should give the WOG to the city with the largest market for winter sports products. I wonder why the IOC members havent thought about this earlier, this should be their only criteria, since it has a lot to deal with sport and olympism. Very logical and relevant choice. I just have 3 things in mind when I read such aberrations:

- You're kidding and you don't really think so.

_ You dont especially like the Olympic Games and you just consider things in terms of business

- You need  :help:

Since when does Western Europe decline? And are you really sure all Chinese people are wealthy, and live in a land of milk and honey while ALL Eastern Europeans are poor and wretched? Eastern Europe is slowly growing too, since they're taking part to the EU. I got a Polish friend who's much wealthier than many Chinese people by the way.

If you're unable to talk about olympism and have just business in mind I suggest you leave this forum and look for a stock exchange and business forum. There's plenty of them. :glare:

Cordelia, with all due respect, you've been the one whos' been saying that the country with the most experience in winter sports should host for most of this thread now, as if THAT were the only criteria. Since when does that fit into the spirit of Olympism?

OK, Western Europe isn't in "decline," but the Winter sports base there is not likely to expand. In Asia business for winter sports is booming. Like it or not it's going to be a factor in the IOC's decision.

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Will anything happen today/tommorow, because today is 16 Aug:

16 August - Deadline for bids to submit signed Candidature Acceptance Procedure and application fee (USD$150,000).

Will the IOC have a press release or sth - who has signed the procedure and who has given the money?

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Reading through most of the comments, most people seem to be throwing their support behind PC because it's Asia's turn, PC came so close last time, and that they are the obvious favourite from the 2010 race.  I think that we all should realize that the race for 2014 is none of those.  The IOC has said NO to continent rotation, and that this race is far from being the 2010 race.

As some have pointed out, the obvious choice to host most often does not succeed (even Vancouver came close to suffering that fate).  Therefore, one has to look at the 2014 race as the 2014 race.  There are obvious benefits some cities have (PC, Salzburg) from previous bidding, however every city can do research to get this knowledge first hand.

As a Vancouverite, I understand the sentiment that some of you have for your home country/city etc and wish your city all the best in it's bid.  Not that my opinion matters much, but I feel that Sofia may sneek in and get it.  It is a "new frontier", is in Europe (yes, that shouldn't matter, but it does), had bid before and is in a reasonable time zone for the corporate sponsors.  If a city wins on the first ballot though, I would not be surprised if PC wins it (like the 2010)

my two cents.

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Reading through most of the comments, most people seem to be throwing their support behind PC because it's Asia's turn, PC came so close last time, and that they are the obvious favourite from the 2010 race.  I think that we all should realize that the race for 2014 is none of those.  The IOC has said NO to continent rotation, and that this race is far from being the 2010 race.

As some have pointed out, the obvious choice to host most often does not succeed (even Vancouver came close to suffering that fate).  Therefore, one has to look at the 2014 race as the 2014 race.  There are obvious benefits some cities have (PC, Salzburg) from previous bidding, however every city can do research to get this knowledge first hand.

As a Vancouverite, I understand the sentiment that some of you have for your home country/city etc and wish your city all the best in it's bid.  Not that my opinion matters much, but I feel that Sofia may sneek in and get it.  It is a "new frontier", is in Europe (yes, that shouldn't matter, but it does), had bid before and is in a reasonable time zone for the corporate sponsors.  If a city wins on the first ballot though, I would not be surprised if PC wins it (like the 2010)

my two cents.

  Very wise and relevant message. Some people definitely seem to have forgotten that the IOC said NO to continent rotation.

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Sure, and the Games will be forever in Europe...  :D

Nobody sais forever, but I still think that the IOC won't do the continent rotation like FIFA to show that only the best bid can win

Of course we all know that "best" is too relative...

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Once again, we come back to the IOC's ambiguity over continental rotation.

Of course, the IOC will never support "official" rotation _ it would just limit the field for any one bid and possibly lead to a situation where a bid could win that would not be up to par on any other bid cycle.

That said, it has always (or at least since the 1950s) followed an unofficial rotation policy. Maybe not so stringently for the winter games, but even then there's only been one set of back-to-back WOGs on the same continent since the late 1960s. So while it's not a case of the IOC reserving certain olympiads for certain regions, nevertheless the argument from a region that they haven't held a games for a long time would certainly be a strong factor (among others) in influencing the members' decisions.

I still think PyeongChang has a strong chance for this one, but Sofia could well be the surprise spoilers and Salzburg could well be chosen as a safe, reliable host (never mind the sceptical public support in Austria).

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Some people definitely seem to have forgotten that the IOC said NO to continent rotation.

Hmmm...that's just Rogge talking thru his hat.  They just don't want to be compared to FIFA.

These are the same people who want to gender-equalize the Games and make them smaller.  (OK, they tried).  But I believe the male v. female sports membership is 3-1.  Only baseball and softball were shelved.  So, what they've rounded off athlete participation to just about 10,000 now - but took out One, repeat ONE venue for '12 - a baseball diamond.  Really a quite inexpensive venue if you consider the natatorium and ROOFED Olympic stadia.

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The games have changed so much that looking at the past trends of whom hosted doesn't really hold much weight, as it's really only been in the past 15-20 years have more cities/countries been interested in hosting the games.  This time around there are 7 cities to choose from, with some obvious favourites, underdogs, and also-rans. PC does have the inside track and would in most people's eyes be considered the favourite, but as many pointed out, the favourtie has come home empty handed as often if not more then coming home with the games.  If the IOC really wanted PC to have the games of the XXII Winter Olympiad that decision would have been made.  But it is a contest between all interested cities, with PC being one of them (with some excellent potential)

However, saying that it's Asia's turn is like saying that every 3rd olympiad, North America should have them.  And seeing as though there are only 2 countries that legitimatly (sp?) can host them, I think everyone would be pretty tired of Canada & the U.S. hosting.  Before PC & Harbin bid, Japan has been the only Asian nation to successfully host the games.  So, for a handful of nations, every 3rd olympiad again may be a bit much.

Then there's Europe.  How many nations are there that could successfully host the games?  How many nations have yet to host the games in Europe?  For those of us that don't live in Europe (myself included) we like to chastize Europe for getting more opportunities to host then other regions, but they truly are deserving especially when you look at the % of medals won by European Nations.

I don't mean to discredit PC and future bids from China (Harbin), I would love to see the games in your countries, but we do need to put in to perspective who will win more often.  PC could very well be the host after Vancouver & it wouldn't surprise me, but we all must see that it isn't out of the question that Europe could once again land the games.

All but coincidental i'm sure, but looking at the past hosts, it seems like Europe gets 3/6 Olympics, N.A 2/6, and Asia 1/6 (yes I see the irony in looking at this when I just said earlier that this doesn't really hold much weight :P

Cortina d'Ampezzo 1956 E

Squaw Valley 1960 N

Innsbruck 1964 E

Grenoble 1968 E

Sapporo 1972 A

Innsbruck 1976 E/N (originally awarded to Denver)

Lake Placid 1980 N

Sarajevo 1984 E

Calgary 1988 N

Albertville 1992 E

Lillehammer 1994 E

Nagano 1998 A

Salt Lake City 2002 N

Torino 2006 E

Vancouver 2010 N

My bet is on PC hosting in 2018 with one of of the S's winning 2014 Salzburg ,Sofia, or who knows, Sochi! :D  :D

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Once again, we come back to the IOC's ambiguity over continental rotation.

Of course, the IOC will never support "official" rotation _ it would just limit the field for any one bid and possibly lead to a situation where a bid could win that would not be up to par on any other bid cycle.

That said, it has always (or at least since the 1950s) followed an unofficial rotation policy. Maybe not so stringently for the winter games, but even then there's only been one set of back-to-back WOGs on the same continent since the late 1960s. So while it's not a case of the IOC reserving certain olympiads for certain regions, nevertheless the argument from a region that they haven't held a games for a long time would certainly be a strong factor (among others) in influencing the members' decisions.

I still think PyeongChang has a strong chance for this one, but Sofia could well be the surprise spoilers and Salzburg could well be chosen as a safe, reliable host (never mind the sceptical public support in Austria).

Actually - how important is the public opinion as a factor to the IOC?

I know it has weight 2 in the evaluation report (Infrastructure has 5), but how important is it to the IOC members who actually choose the host with their votes?

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Local opinion is very important to any IOC member's vote, but being that polls are only polls, what makes up 'public opinion' is more than just polls. Other factors play a part such as if people have elected to spend money on different buildings before, how much money is spent already for non-Olympic related sports programs, and even if schools have a large promotion of sports.

This is why Sofia and Sochi have had more small gains. Although they have little international event hosting experience, the existing sports environment is quite lively. The same goes for Pyeongchang, but with its heavy campaign and carryover from 2010, the promotion of sports and local opinions aren't crucial areas for them to cover.

A big reason why lesser known cities and countries have been beginning to jump into the hosting scene is that the definition of good infrastructure has changed. In the early 20th to mid 20th century the definition was something like "having a venue to hold this event," but is defined today as "having a venue to hold this event with good conditions, upkeep, legacizing programs, and smaller chance of incurring a debt that may be under the burden of the IOC."

That is why although public opinion is now more than just polls and is being paid more attention, it still ranks lower in importance to infrastructure, obviously.

It's only a matter of time when more nations and cities have venues and the biggest hosting job to tackle will shift from construction to financing/housing, in which we will finally have that huge suprise/out of nowhere bid to win an election.

Dili, East Timor summer games! But not THAT radical, of course.

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Cortina d'Ampezzo 1956 E

Squaw Valley 1960 N

Innsbruck 1964 E

Grenoble 1968 E

Sapporo 1972 A

Innsbruck 1976 E/N (originally awarded to Denver)

Lake Placid 1980 N

Sarajevo 1984 E

Calgary 1988 N

Albertville 1992 E

Lillehammer 1994 E

Nagano 1998 A

Salt Lake City 2002 N

Torino 2006 E

Vancouver 2010 N

My bet is on PC hosting in 2018 with one of of the S's winning 2014 Salzburg ,Sofia, or who knows, Sochi! :D  :D

If Europe hosts 2014, I'd like to see Harbin host 2018.

Beijing 2008 & Harbin 2018

:P

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Cortina d'Ampezzo 1956 E

Squaw Valley 1960 N

Innsbruck 1964 E

Grenoble 1968 E

Sapporo 1972 A

Innsbruck 1976 E/N (originally awarded to Denver)

Lake Placid 1980 N

Sarajevo 1984 E

Calgary 1988 N

Albertville 1992 E

Lillehammer 1994 E

Nagano 1998 A

Salt Lake City 2002 N

Torino 2006 E

Vancouver 2010 N

My bet is on PC hosting in 2018 with one of of the S's winning 2014 Salzburg ,Sofia, or who knows, Sochi! :D  :D

If Europe hosts 2014, I'd like to see Harbin host 2018.

Beijing 2008 & Harbin 2018

:P

You suggest China Olympics every 10 years... interesting...

:)

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Wich is the next phase then? :)

Now, the questionnaires to each of the 7 possible candidate cities will be handed out to them. They all must answer all of them by just before the Torino 2006 Winter Olympics begin. Then, all 7 can witness how these upcoming Games are going to operate.

JUNE 2006: the most important month. Yes, there will be a shortlist to become official candidate cities for the 2014 Winter Olympics. How many out of the 7 that will make it: that will be the IOC's decision.

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Wich is the next phase then? :)

Now, the questionnaires to each of the 7 possible candidate cities will be handed out to them. They all must answer all of them by just before the Torino 2006 Winter Olympics begin. Then, all 7 can witness how these upcoming Games are going to operate.

JUNE 2006: the most important month. Yes, there will be a shortlist to become official candidate cities for the 2014 Winter Olympics. How many out of the 7 that will make it: that will be the IOC's decision.

Yes, but I wonder when we will going to hear first details about the bids? I hope soon. How was it before?

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Yes, but I wonder when we will going to hear first details about the bids? I hope soon. How was it before?

I don't remember how it actually went, before the questionnaires and the official candidacies. My guess is that the "details" of the bids will be reflected in a "general" way by those questions in the questionnaire for the IOC to initially get the idea on how the real candidate bids will be like. That is, if a particular city bid gets past that first stage.

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