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Y Rome will not win in 2020


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OK, here's another portent on why 2020 will NOT be Rome's year. Consider the last time two, let alone FOUR cities that began with the same letter of the alphabet, hosted successive SOGs were in

1968 - Mexico

1972 - Munich

1976 - Montreal

1980 - Moscow

Then the next one won by default: 1984 - Los Angeles

After LA, the "don't-go-bankrupt" template was there for other cities to use...

1988 - Seoul

1992 - Barcelona

1996 - Atlanta

2000 - Sydney

2004 - Athens

2008 - Beijing

2012 - London

2016 - Rio de Janeiro

2020 - Rome? I don't think so.

The four successive "M"s were a fluke that will never be repeated. After Moscow, there were no successive repeats. So Rio to be followed by Rome in 2020 is highly unlikely. So again, 2020 looks like it will be destined for new letters, so possibly either Durban or Cape Town.

(Interestingly enough, it's the LGBT Games that are now on a synchronized "C" kick: Gay - Chicago 2006, Cologne 2010, and then Cleveland 2014. Throw in OutGames II there, with Copenhagen 2009--and you can see that the repeating phenomenon happens only once in a generation in either the hetero or homosexual games--but NOT concurrently. ;) )

My numero-letterology charts NEVER LIE!!

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Interesting. I've never paid attention to it that way. Although, I've noticed that "M" cities have hosted the most Summer Olympics, 5 in total with Melbourne. And it's never happened with the Winter Games, so u may have something there, lol.

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Interesting. I've never paid attention to it that way. Although, I've noticed that "M" cities have hosted the most Summer Olympics, 5 in total with Melbourne. And it's never happened with the Winter Games, so u may have something there, lol.

Yes, and that break in the Summer Olympic "M" streak was caused by Rome and Tokyo. So, Rome will really have to wait for 2024 for its turn again!!

(Just noticed I got a -2 in the original post above -- not that I realy care. But I guess I just burst the bubble of "Rome 2020" supporters. :P You'll probably get it 4 years later...after all, you ARE the Eternal City...so what's another moon. ;) )

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The the "A" cities are also in there at 5. Athens. Antwerp. Amsterdam. Atlanta. Athens. Well, they did repeat one.

The "L" cities have also done it 5 times, but they've only used the same two over and over. London and Los Angeles.

Maybe the "S" cities will join the 5 timer club? St Louis. Stockholm. Seoul. Sydney. Perhaps, baron, you could get San Francisco on that list. ;)

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The the "A" cities are also in there at 5. Athens. Antwerp. Amsterdam. Atlanta. Athens. Well, they did repeat one.

The "L" cities have also done it 5 times, but they've only used the same two over and over. London and Los Angeles.

Maybe the "S" cities will join the 5 timer club? St Louis. Stockholm. Seoul. Sydney. Perhaps, baron, you could get San Francisco on that list. ;)

Except the "A"'s, the "L"'s and the "S"'s are NOT consecutive. I know in the Winter, "S" is the dominant one: St. Moritz, Squaw Valley, Sapporo, Sarajevo, Salt Lake...(and Sion and Salzburg were almost ones) but still, they are ALL spaced out somewhat regularly.) So going back to the summers, Rome would not follow Rio...but maybe Tokyo could sneak in there--but that would break the "8"s years reserved for Asia.

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I also don't believe in Rome. But it's not because the letter that the city will not be elected.

No; not because of the letter. But I was just showing the various probabilities of how the chips may or may not fall once the die have been cast.

It's just one more way to read the tea leaves--another indicator of why a certain city may or may NOT win the big prize based on past occurences.

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  • 2 weeks later...

To extrapolate my theory farther...

2016 - Rio

2020 - CapeTown or Durban

2024 - Rome, Paris or Berlin

2028 - Tokyo (or Delhi)

2032 - Chicago, San Francisco (or Istanbul?)

2036 - Who Cares??? :lol::lol:

Winter:

2010 - Vanoucver

2014 - Sochi

2018 - PyeongChang

2022 - Reno

2026 - Ostersund or Munich (if Berlin loses 2024)

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Rome will do a Madrid, and secure a solid voter base. And shock the world with a 2nd round win.

Hmmmm. I still think Rome's the one to beat, but I have softened a little bit on my hard line dismissal of South Africa's chances. The Durban session's pure Gold - put it this way, I think it's a far bigger plus for a South Africa bid than this year's World Cup.

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Would Rome still be the one to beat if Munich or Annecy secure 2018 & Tokyo does indeed decide to run for 2020, too? It would seem then that the odds would, at the very least, tilt slightly more favorable the Asian way.

Probably, but that's really up in the air until July next year. Come the 2018 decision, and no-doubt a few more declared 2020 bid contenders by then, and we can start making a few more informed predictions.

Put it this way, I'd put Rome as the early runner. But I also think there was no doubt Chicago was the early favourite for 2016 this time four years ago. We're all just looking at possible form rather than performance so far.

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The Durban session's pure Gold - put it this way, I think it's a far bigger plus for a South Africa bid than this year's World Cup.

Here's another thing too: the IOC Session will be held at the exact projected time...so really a balmy July (winter). Whereas, most of those Euros know that July in Rome will be HELL as it was in Athens and in Rome 50 years ago (when there was a cyclist death). So...that timing is I think even more crucial, combined with other factors..

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  • 10 months later...

It probably means the new Rome which became COnstantinople and later bea=cme ISTANBUL!! So my theory will probably hold true.

istanbul has about a hundred names used ..:/ any letter for your theory can fits tough :D

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