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LuigiVercotti

Where To If The Bid Fails

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Have to agree with both Pup and Rols, particularly re the certitude of a SA bid for 2020. Plus I'm intrigued by the Istanbul analogy for PC. Furthermore has the IOC and the KOC really reached such a nadir in their relations to inhibit PC 2018? I know that the stench of Mickey Kim and his legacy have been a corrosive influence on the IOC's public image for years now, and we all recall the stories of Korean bribery and obstructionism related to Seoul 88. However will there not be some degree of influence if not coercion from long standing TOP sponsor Samsung to get a decent block of pro-PC votes within the IOC? Or is that being too cynical :P

I think Samsung is actually part of the problem - they were already a bit heavy-handed in their enthusiasm for 2014, with too much hard sell proving counterproductive. Rank-and-file in the IOC aren't keen on being railroaded to decisions. Even Samaranch didn't always get his way - more often than you'd think even - when the members thought he was weidling the iron glove too heavily - according to Pound he used to call it them the "barking dogs".

Why would South Africa not be ready for 2020? It may not win until who knows when but I don't see why it could not be ready by 2020.

The Games are a huge complex, expensive logistical nightmare but what is stopping South Africa from delivering once again?

Is 2020 the right time for the country given competing priorities? Perhaps not, but it may not be for how many more decades...

To me, it;'s not so much whether South Africa is ready, but is the IOC ready?

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Exactly. As stated before, it may be tougher post new frontier in 2016. A win is never guaranteed

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If PC fails... that's a bit more murky. PC has been put up to bat so many times now, I'm not sure the Koreans have a plan 'b' at this point.

Plan B?

Plan A was to win the 2010 games.

Plan B was to win the 2014 games.

They are right now on Plan C to win the 2018 games.

What they need is a Plan D!

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There is a history of France waiting, 16 years between 1992 and 2008. But if a a European city wins 2020, the next time Europe will see the games is 2032, since Asia, North America and South Africa will probably win those games.

Do you honestly think the IOC is going to give China a second SOG in 20 years or less?

True regarding France - but do not forget Lille tried for 2004!

I think the IOC will happily go back to China as long as the big bucks are on the table. A Shanghai Olympics will be quite different to a Beijing Games. Hong Kong could be an option if they ever get the sports precinct off the ground at Kai Tak. Even Taiwan (I know, I know - not "China") could be an option. Shanghai will push for a Games in the next decade as the Expo area can be adapted to a new sports precinct (as is planned) and there is talk of going after an Asian Games.

FYI - Quite a few people try to use that analogy from time to time, but I always find it flawed, simply because Istanbul has never even come close to clenching it, whereas PyeongChang has, TWICE.

I was commenting more on their infrastructure upgrades. However PC has TWICE made the same fundamental mistake - not suring up enough second preferences. The Korean mindset is "vote for us and only us" - rarely do we see a first round majority win.

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True regarding France - but do not forget Lille tried for 2004!

I think the IOC will happily go back to China as long as the big bucks are on the table. A Shanghai Olympics will be quite different to a Beijing Games. Hong Kong could be an option if they ever get the sports precinct off the ground at Kai Tak. Even Taiwan (I know, I know - not "China") could be an option. Shanghai will push for a Games in the next decade as the Expo area can be adapted to a new sports precinct (as is planned) and there is talk of going after an Asian Games.

I was commenting more on their infrastructure upgrades. However PC has TWICE made the same fundamental mistake - not suring up enough second preferences. The Korean mindset is "vote for us and only us" - rarely do we see a first round majority win.

Taiwan will never be an option as long as the existing political arrangements are in place, and even if through whatever resolution it may require to achieve reunification there is a return of Taiwan to the mainland's control there would be far more pressing interest domestically for SOGs in locations such as Shanghai or maybe HK. The basic sporting and political animosity between the two Chinese states is so entrenched it'd probably take a major PLA invasion and occupation for years to dispel the animosity. And as for Taiwan trying to go alone then the PRC's delegates etc would bring down a shite storm not seen since LA's boycott. There would be no way the likes of He Zhenliang would let the IOC go through with such a confrontational step.

And by the way, within the current IOC structure Taiwan/Taipei's IOC member Wu Ching Kuo has a rather stinky rep...his association with the AIBA means he has inherited or has been working alongside the same crooks and charlatans that were around during Chwodhury's days (see this Wikipedia entry).

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Munich definitely 'should' win, but if not I think that Stuttgart would be a cool summer city!

Stuttgart? :blink:

If Stuttgart had a problem getting past Leipzig for 2012 and then Leipzig went down quicker than a Garuda airliner in the race won by London (not even getting over the first hurdle), then the German NOK will be totally verrückt to think that Stuttgart would be a viable candidate for 2020. Berlin, Hamburg or maybe Munich on the rebound perhaps but Stuttgart...nein :P

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Stuttgart(along with Leipzig): The Tulsa/Hobart of Germany. :lol:

Stuttgart would be more along the lines of Philadelphia. It is an important German city.

Taiwan will never be apart of PRC. The Chinese will not risk direct conforntation with the Americans and most people on the island of Taiwan now style themselves as Taiwanese and not Chinese.

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I doubt that Berlin would bid for 2020 if München's bid for 2018 failed, since the time between the election in Durban and deadline for a 2020 bid is too short to create a bid which would have a chance - therewith I think that München would try for 2022 again - if a 2022 bid failed a Berlin 2024 bid would be very interesting!!!

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Munich as already stated that they're ready for a 2022 bid if 2018 is unseccessful. I think the GOC would like to give it at least 2 attempts after all the work & support behind this 2018 bid.

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Stuttgart would be more along the lines of Philadelphia. It is an important German city.

u know, I don't know Y Stuttgart has never registered with me. I've never realized how large it is, in particular the metropolitan area (& how much status it has). It's larger than Hamburg's, Munich's & even Berlin's. And I've been to Germany, specifically Bavaria.

I've always thought of Stuttgart, at best, as a Bremen, Hanover or Nurnberg. It never dawned on me as a Munich, Hamburg or even Cologne. It's mind-boggling then Y in the world the GOC chose puny Leipzig over the much bigger players of Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg & Stuttgart for 2012. It was totally internal politics then. The GOC just couldn't have been serious about 2012 at all.

Seems like Stuttgart shouldn't be brushed aside so easily like an earlier poster did. Unless they were also under a false impression of Stuttgart, too.

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I'm not predicting a French bid for 2020. I just think that if they sit 2020 out, they'd better hunker down for a long wait.

I don't see the Istanbul/PC comparison. The thing that makes PC stand out is that they aren't you're run-of-the-mill repeat unsuccessful bidder. They've lost two consecutive races by TINY margins. Provided the bid is up to snuff, I think they will squeeze past Munich -- not necessarily on the basis of merit. I totally agree that they must shore up their 2nd round votes. Nobody will win in the first round. They've got to go after Annecy's supporters.

I see the 2018 vote having the greatest impact on the continental politics of 2020. I don't know that Germany, France or South Korea are likely to bid for 2020 if they lose 2018 (though a bid isn't inconceivable from any of those countries). In my opinion, if PC gets 2018, Asia is out of 2020. If Munich gets 2018, a Europe's chances at 2020 are significantly weakened though probably not totally destroyed. For this reason, I think European IOC members are likely to vote for PC.

I know there is much debate over whether continental rotation carries over between SOGs and WOGs. Where 2018 and 2020 are concerned I think it definitely will. The same two continents are the primary contenders for both Games. Not only that, Asia is one of those continents -- Asia with its highly undesirable timezone. There's just no way Asia can win both 2018 and 2020. Hence, my predition that Asia gets 2018 and Europe 2020 (unless South Africa can spirit it away...)

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I know it's crazy and pushing the realms of probability but why doesn't the Munchen bid team roll over an unsucessful 2018 Winter bid into a 2020 SOG bid. They would have already have established their credentials with a sizeable portion of the IOC membership. Bach's position will nominally improve between 2011 and 2013. The potential to redeem the IOC's history with a successful 2020 games might appeal to some who see the Israeli massacre in 1972 as a blot on the games history. And in terms of sustainability of venues Munich could deliver some parts of their 2018 venue plan adjusted to SOG usage.

I know, unfeasable and yet... :)

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I agree, the only problem is that you look like a bit of a joke, the one minute proclaiming your undying love for winter sport and the next trying to put together Summer Games bid.

The Munich bid is incredible, and its either 2018 or 2022. My money is on a clear win for 2018.

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My money is on a clear win for 2018.

Nah. If the weakest technical bid, Rio, won for 2016, who's to say that the IOC will veer from a similar mindset come Durban next year?

The selection years of 2009-2011-and 2013 will be known as the IOC's 'new frontiers-selection' period -- much like the Blue period Picasso went thru.

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I speak only for the French position.

If Annecy loose there are two choice for France,

The first if PC win, I think Annecy will try for a second attempt in 2022, for 2020 no french city will bid. Moreover Paris seems to have finally dropped the SOG even for 2024 (There are different reason for that)

The second if Munich win, Annecy couldn't try in 2022, and I think we have a bid for 2024 with Marseille or another French city but will not Paris.

Why Paris don't bid for 2020 or 2024? Because recently the French government launched "Le Grand Paris" which costs already extremely expensive to the state and in Paris. They won't add more to the SOG this huge investment. Moreover the mayor of Paris don't want try a third time...

Two other French city seem would obtain a future bid in 2024 if Annecy loose. The 2 city are Marseille and Nice. I think Marseille could be the "French Barcelona"

But I think Annecy will win. And the new concept is very very strong now!!!

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Problem with Marseille though, is that it's too small now for the Summer Olympics of today. Even smaller than Barcelona. Marseille's metro pop. is only 1.6 million.

And from what you're saying, it seems that a future Paris bid is far more uncertain than whether or not South Africa is going to throw their hat in the ring for 2020. Seems like the IOC has really lost out on a Paris Olympics for a long, long while going by your post.

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Nah. If the weakest technical bid, Rio, won for 2016, who's to say that the IOC will veer from a similar mindset come Durban next year?

The selection years of 2009-2011-and 2013 will be known as the IOC's 'new frontiers-selection' period -- much like the Blue period Picasso went thru.

Sexiest bid wins every time. Munich is the sexiest bid. Munich will get the votes.

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Sexiest bid wins every time. Munich is the sexiest bid. Munich will get the votes.

Nah, I dunno if I'd consider Munich's bid sexy. She's more like an experienced hooker, having already done it once before. Whereas PC (and Gangeon (is that the other village?) are small-town virgins.

(Annecy is really just another trollop passing for a 'virgin.')

So it'll depend on what appeals to the IOC: hookers or a virgin?

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Sexiest bid wins every time. Munich is the sexiest bid. Munich will get the votes.

On the paper Munich is the least sexy bid... Annecy and PC are more sexy... And Even Annecy with the Lake, Chamonix and Mt Blanc is the most sexy bid...

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Nah, I dunno if I'd consider Munich's bid sexy. She's more like an experienced hooker, having already done it once before. Whereas PC (and Gangeon (is that the other village?) are small-town virgins.

(Annecy is really just another trollop passing for a 'virgin.')

So it'll depend on what appeals to the IOC: hookers or a virgin?

:lol:

And besides, this whole "sexy" bid thing is getting out of hand here. It may have been an element that helped the 2016 winner, but by NO means do the "sexy bids win every time". It's not a one & only crucial element of a bid winner. That is a farce.

Beijing's not "sexy", Atlanta is not "sexy", Barcelona was not "sexy" prior to 1986 when it was awarded the Games, Seoul is not "sexy", Turin is not "sexy", Nagano is not really "sexy", Salt Lake City is not "sexy", Sarajevo is not "sexy", Sochi is definitely not "sexy". So, what was that about that about "sexy". :rolleyes:

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On the paper Munich is the least sexy bid... Annecy and PC are more sexy... And Even Annecy with the Lake, Chamonix and Mt Blanc is the most sexy bid...

Exactly. "Sexy" could also be subjective. What's "sexy" to one IOC member could be bland to another.

I think red-heads are really sexy, but there's quite a number of other people that think that they look liked freckled clowns.

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Why Paris don't bid for 2020 or 2024? Because recently the French government launched "Le Grand Paris" which costs already extremely expensive to the state and in Paris. They won't add more to the SOG this huge investment. Moreover the mayor of Paris don't want try a third time...

Nice try Tulsa!

Fooling the ioc into thinking that Paris has lost the will to fight in order to strengthen the Annecy 2018 bid.

Crafty but, unfortunately, it won't work! ;)

The "Grand Paris" project mainly concerns interlinking isolated towns around Paris into the capital's transport system in order to open them up to the rest of the world. It's a transport oriented programme and not a housing one although housing does have a role to play.

http://www.gouvernement.fr/gouvernement/les-projets-pour-le-grand-paris (in French)

Concerning the mayor, I don't remember him saying anything about Paris not wanting to bid for a fourth (not third) time.

What I think he said was that he would not be leading a future bid and would leave it to someone else.

He, no doubt, had a reality check and understood that being a socialist, gay and not an English speaker didn't really endear him to a majority of the ioc's members....

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