Where To If The Bid Fails

[LuigiVercotti]

So, who would care to speculate what will happen for future bids (summer or winter and either local or nationally) for those NOCs or countries if their candidates for 2018 goes down next year in Durban? For example, if Munich loses out will the Germans and the NOK look to a Berlin 2020 bid? Would PyeongChang be willing to go through yet another run at 2022, or perhaps pass and leave an opening for Harbin as the next Asian OWG host? And will the French float a Paris bid once more in the seemingly doomed hope of bringing the games back to the host city for 1900 and 1924?

There are going to be two unhappy bid teams when the decision comes down, so what will be the 'B Plans' for the French, Germans and South Koreans...

[Sir Rols]

Well, that's the bidding game for you - there's only one winner, with everyone else as collateral damage. I think the interesting thing with the 2018 bid is all contenders, either officially or just in musing, have given strong hints or more that they have summer ambitions as well. Korea, certainly, has long been floating the possibility of a bid for 2020 or later from Busan (not that I'd rate it as a strong competitor in any imminent race) and of course many people are confidently expecting the likes of Germany and Paris to be having a go for the SOGs within the next decade. I'd expect the only reason they've been quiet more recently is not to upset the 2018 campaign apple cart. I wouldn't be surprised if any of them throw their hat in the ring for at least 2024, if not even 2020, if they fail to get over the line first in Durban.

[mattperiolat]

Most certainly if Munich or Annecy fail, Paris and Berlin will be running for 2020, maybe 2024.

If PC fails... that's a bit more murky. PC has been put up to bat so many times now, I'm not sure the Koreans have a plan 'b' at this point. Busan hasn't been seriously talked up as far as I know for 2020 and the truth is, frankly, I would think the IOC would look Japan, maybe China again, before giving the SOG back to Korea. Not as a slight, it just doesn't feel like the Koreans are serious about wanting anything but the WOG at this point.

[Sir Rols]

If PC fails... that's a bit more murky. PC has been put up to bat so many times now, I'm not sure the Koreans have a plan 'b' at this point. Busan hasn't been seriously talked up as far as I know for 2020 and the truth is, frankly, I would think the IOC would look Japan, maybe China again, before giving the SOG back to Korea. Not as a slight, it just doesn't feel like the Koreans are serious about wanting anything but the WOG at this point.

I think it's been a bit more than "not seriously talked up":

Busan Wants Fair Judgement In 2020 Summer Games Bid

[FYI]

I think all are murky, tbh.

If Munich loses, they've already said that they're "gung-ho" for a 2022 bid. When Annecy loses, that doesn't automatically mean Paris 2020. Paris hasn't even made a peep about another bid since their 2012 failed attempt. Same with Berlin, have they made any noises about an Olympic bid? The last German domestic race involved a few big German names like Frankfurt, Hamburg & Dusseldorf, but not Berlin.

If Pyeongchang loses, I see a 4th consecutive bid very unlikely. This 3rd attempt wasn't easy to get started as their previous 2 bids. And a Busan bid for a summer Games doesn't seem to likely to succeed. I agree that other more attractive Asian hosts for a Summer Games would take more precedence before Busan would.

[LuigiVercotti]

I think the fate of any post-2018 German bid if Munich doesn't get the nod will be heavily intertwined with Thomas Bach's position. Assuming Rogge doesn't pull a Samaranch and look to extend his presidency beyond 2013 then Bach will be in the box seat to be elected President at that time. If Bach engages in a campaign to succeed Rogge then any German bid will have to walk a tightrope of not being to closely linked with the man, but they'd also be crazy not to engage with one of the most influential bods in the Lausanne bunker. Then, will the IOC decide to go for a double prezzie for Herr Neues Prezident (the big chair and a German SOG) or actually say 'genuck' with his election?

[FYI]

Like when Toronto & Dick Pound were both in the running at the same Moscow IOC session. And yet both walked away empty-handed.

[LuigiVercotti]

Like when Toronto & Dick Pound were both in the running at the same Moscow IOC session. And yet both walked away empty-handed.

Exactly, though Dick made so many enemies with his adherence to some crazy moral high ground he and Toronto was on a hiding to nothing. Bach has been way more diplomatic in his movement up the IOC food chain and hence could be just the kind of prez that'll walk away with both the crown and the games to celebrate. And let's not forget Beijing was a far more imposing opponent to all in 2001 than what we may see for 2020. If we see something like Rome, Durban, Doha and Berlin strutting their stuff for the session then perhaps the Deutschies will have a far better chance for an Olympic quinella than the Canucks did.

[mattperiolat]

Exactly, though Dick made so many enemies with his adherence to some crazy moral high ground he and Toronto was on a hiding to nothing. Bach has been way more diplomatic in his movement up the IOC food chain and hence could be just the kind of prez that'll walk away with both the crown and the games to celebrate. And let's not forget Beijing was a far more imposing opponent to all in 2001 than what we may see for 2020. If we see something like Rome, Durban, Doha and Berlin strutting their stuff for the session then perhaps the Deutschies will have a far better chance for an Olympic quinella than the Canucks did.

But therein lies an interesting question: assuming Bach is the guy to replace Rogge, does that mean Munich for 2018 or do you throw a bone to the Koreans just for persistance and go for the big one in 2020, regardless of what German city does the bid (assume Berlin for now)?

[Rafa]

If Munich 2018 fails, Munich 2020 will begin

[Frenchy]

If Annecy fails, Paris will probably breathe a - very discrete - sigh of relief and slowly start rolling the machine towards a 2024 summer bid.

Methinks.

[Faster]

Not a chance, with Rome and potentially Berlin and Madrid going for 2020 Paris cannot sit out.

[baron-pierreIV]

with Rome and potentially Berlin and Madrid going for 2020 Paris cannot sit out.

None of those are really sure. It looks like everyone is waiting for South Africa to make a move

Tokyo of course is waiting for the outcome in Durban next July before it throws its hat into the 2020 ring.

We'll know the 2020 bidders for sure in about a year's time...after Durban.

[Athensfan]

I really don't see the IOC passing on Pyeongchang. The brutality of Olympic bidding was a little too clear during the 2016 bid. Saying no to a competitive bid from South Korea for a third time (and it would be a third very close loss if PC lost) would make the IOC look like a bunch of meanies. PC may not have the sexiest bid, but I think they will win. If I am right, Tokyo will have to refocus on 2024.

If Munich wins, I think Tokyo becomes the instant favorite for 2020 -- whether or not South Africa jumps into the race. I'm not saying South Africa can't beat Tokyo, but they would have to come from behind.

It seems a foregone conclusion that Annecy will not win. Therefore I think Paris MUST bid for 2020 or they will have to wait for the continental rotation wheel to revolve all the way around -- primarily because there is a good chance 2020 will land in Europe. At this point I might even say it is probable.

South Africa's presence is a big question mark, but I think Nawal's comments will go a long way to encouraging other bidders to take a shot irrespective of South Africa's decision. I think SA recognizes that to some extent they are in the driver's seat with regard to the flow of information. It behooves a South African bid to conceal their intention to bid as long as possible. That will keep their prospective competitors guessing and uncertain.

[Rob2012]

I seem to remember a couple of our French members saying a new Paris bid is very unlikely, and there's no appetite amongst many Parisians or those in power to put the city in the mix again. I often think the wish is father of the thought when Paris comes up on these forums - I can see why it would obviously be appealing, but have we actually had any indication Paris will throw its hat in again?

Besides which, any Paris bid will need a fair amount of reworking from their 2012 bid, as I pointed out here

[FYI]

South Africa's presence is a big question mark, but I think Nawal's comments will go a long way to encouraging other bidders to take a shot irrespective of South Africa's decision.

This is an interesting comment. Perhaps that was the sneaky plan all along, playing devil's advocate, especially when Japan was "wary" of South Africa's intentions. And then Nawal, out of nowhere, comes in & showers her words of wisdom about an African bid. Maybe it was really meant to calm other potential bidders fears of whether or not to bother if South Africa was in the 2020 picture. Because a race with only one, two or even 3 bidders (like 2018), isn't/wouldn't be as exciting as a race with 9,10 or 11 applicants as we seen with the 2004, 2008 & 2012 races

[baron-pierreIV]

This is an interesting comment. Perhaps that was the sneaky plan all along, playing devil's advocate, especially when Japan was "wary" of South Africa's intentions. And then Nawal, out of nowhere, comes in & showers her words of wisdom about an African bid. Maybe it was really meant to calm other potential bidders fears of whether or not to bother if South Africa was in the 2020 picture. Because a race with only one, two or even 3 bidders (like 2018), isn't/wouldn't be as exciting as a race with 9,10 or 11 applicants as we seen with the 2004, 2008 & 2012 races

Could be, especially as the tea leaves get easier and easier to read with each passing cycle. Of course, they could entirely ignore her and listen instead to the savants on a certain website!!

[thatsnotmypuppy]

So let's break it down a bit -

ANNECY fails - no Paris 2020. We all need to remember that the French NOC did not want to bid for 2018 at all - the pressure from the applicant cities propelled them into the race. Jeremie (who very much has the pulse of the French NOC) believes Annecy is the start of a cycle of winter bids from France - positioniung Paris for a late 2020's run if at all. The French NOC was very, very upset that they lost to London and like the USOC have pretty much given up for now as far as Summer Games goes.

MUNICH fails - no Berlin/Hamburg/Frankfurt 2020. Hamburg had plans to try for the 20/24/28 Games but that has gone very quiet recently. Realistically I'd say Berlin is the only real hope. The IOC wants flashy. While the world athletics championship was well staged there was very little momentum coming off that event to go forward with any other large scale event. More importantly - if Madrid or Rome score 2020 it lines up Northern Europe for a winter Games or 2028/32 bid.

PYEONGCHANG fails - I doubt the Koreans would push Busan for 2020. I reckon they will sit out for a spell and see for the Expo in 2012 and the Asian Games in 2014 go. The inevitable loss of their 2022 World Cup bid will also bruise the ego a bit. I've been to Busan and while it is a nice city it is not an Olympic city. I could see the Koreans push Seoul or even a combined Seoul-Incheon bid in 2024 depending on what happens in 2018 and what Japan does next.

The external factors in the 2018 are very, very pronounced. I think the South African issue is a non event. Staging a relatively successful World Cup does not mean that Cape Town or Durban are ready for an Olympics. I would be more comfortable if they host a Comm Games first in 2022 and then go after 2024 or 2028 once we see how the preparations play out. Asia is a due a Games of some description in the next few cycles. I really do not see PC getting 2018 - the Koreans and the IOC are just not in a good place and that will remain the issue for a while yet.

PC is the new Istanbul - they will build and build and build - but will probably miss out.

A Summer Games in Tokyo would be better money wise for the IOC. A future Shanghai bid (I hear 2024/28) will also stir up the muck.

[Sir Rols]

Good to get your assessment of the IOC's pulse again, Pups. Sounds plausible to me all the way.

I seem to remember a couple of our French members saying a new Paris bid is very unlikely, and there's no appetite amongst many Parisians or those in power to put the city in the mix again. I often think the wish is father of the thought when Paris comes up on these forums - I can see why it would obviously be appealing, but have we actually had any indication Paris will throw its hat in again?

LOL. Yeah. Paris 2024, like Cape Town 2020, seems to have always been an article of faith for so many - to the point many find hard to even contemplate any other possibilities, despite whatever evidence or signs crop up.

[FYI]

I agree. I think it's safe to assume, as I said earlier in the thread, that Paris is out of the picture, at least for a while. They haven't made any noise whatsoever about another bid since their 2012 loss. They're most likely still stinging from the defeat. Even as tnmp stated, the French NOC was extremely upset losing to London.

[LuigiVercotti]

Good to get your assessment of the IOC's pulse again, Pups. Sounds plausible to me all the way.

LOL. Yeah. Paris 2024, like Cape Town 2020, seems to have always been an article of faith for so many - to the point many find hard to even contemplate any other possibilities, despite whatever evidence or signs crop up.

Have to agree with both Pup and Rols, particularly re the certitude of a SA bid for 2020. Plus I'm intrigued by the Istanbul analogy for PC. Furthermore has the IOC and the KOC really reached such a nadir in their relations to inhibit PC 2018? I know that the stench of Mickey Kim and his legacy have been a corrosive influence on the IOC's public image for years now, and we all recall the stories of Korean bribery and obstructionism related to Seoul 88. However will there not be some degree of influence if not coercion from long standing TOP sponsor Samsung to get a decent block of pro-PC votes within the IOC? Or is that being too cynical Unlike the Swedes with Ostersund methinks the Koreans aren't frightened to use every Machiavellian and big business leverage to get PC up for 2018 (unless the Chinese are working behind the scenes to get Harbin the nod for a 2022 bid and hence counter the South Koreans).

[baron-pierreIV]

Yu Na Kim's gonna go after y'all. Her blades are sharp!!

[FYI]

Plus I'm intrigued by the Istanbul analogy for PC.

Quite a few people try to use that analogy from time to time, but I always find it flawed, simply bcuz Istanbul has never even come close to clenching it, whereas PyeongChang has, TWICE.

The meager number of votes Istanbul has been able to garner the only 2 times that they've been on the ticket demonstrates that they were never even a true contender. PyeongChang on the other hand, has demonstrated the complete opposite on the ballot.

Could be, especially as the tea leaves get easier and easier to read with each passing cycle. Of course, they could entirely ignore her and listen instead to the savants on a certain website!!

Yes, we all know better than that silly woman does. Maybe we should get the Koreans after her, too.

[Faster]

So let's break it down a bit -

ANNECY fails - no Paris 2020. We all need to remember that the French NOC did not want to bid for 2018 at all - the pressure from the applicant cities propelled them into the race. Jeremie (who very much has the pulse of the French NOC) believes Annecy is the start of a cycle of winter bids from France - positioniung Paris for a late 2020's run if at all. The French NOC was very, very upset that they lost to London and like the USOC have pretty much given up for now as far as Summer Games goes.

MUNICH fails - no Berlin/Hamburg/Frankfurt 2020. Hamburg had plans to try for the 20/24/28 Games but that has gone very quiet recently. Realistically I'd say Berlin is the only real hope. The IOC wants flashy. While the world athletics championship was well staged there was very little momentum coming off that event to go forward with any other large scale event. More importantly - if Madrid or Rome score 2020 it lines up Northern Europe for a winter Games or 2028/32 bid.

PYEONGCHANG fails - I doubt the Koreans would push Busan for 2020. I reckon they will sit out for a spell and see for the Expo in 2012 and the Asian Games in 2014 go. The inevitable loss of their 2022 World Cup bid will also bruise the ego a bit. I've been to Busan and while it is a nice city it is not an Olympic city. I could see the Koreans push Seoul or even a combined Seoul-Incheon bid in 2024 depending on what happens in 2018 and what Japan does next.

The external factors in the 2018 are very, very pronounced. I think the South African issue is a non event. Staging a relatively successful World Cup does not mean that Cape Town or Durban are ready for an Olympics. I would be more comfortable if they host a Comm Games first in 2022 and then go after 2024 or 2028 once we see how the preparations play out. Asia is a due a Games of some description in the next few cycles. I really do not see PC getting 2018 - the Koreans and the IOC are just not in a good place and that will remain the issue for a while yet.

PC is the new Istanbul - they will build and build and build - but will probably miss out.

A Summer Games in Tokyo would be better money wise for the IOC. A future Shanghai bid (I hear 2024/28) will also stir up the muck.

There is a history of France waiting, 16 years between 1992 and 2008. But if a a European city wins 2020, the next time Europe will see the games is 2032, since Asia, North America and South Africa will probably win those games.

Do you honestly think the IOC is going to give China a second SOG in 20 years or less?

[Rafa]

Why would South Africa not be ready for 2020? It may not win until who knows when but I don't see why it could not be ready by 2020.

The Games are a huge complex, expensive logistical nightmare but what is stopping South Africa from delivering once again?

Is 2020 the right time for the country given competing priorities? Perhaps not, but it may not be for how many more decades...