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Africa Unlikely To Host Olympics For 20 Years - IOC Official


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Nawal El Moutawakel, head of the International Olympic Committee's coordinating commission for Rio 2016 who also chaired the coordinating commission for London 2012, told Reuters

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Wow... I met her 3 times... and I'm still under her charm... and even more after her statement confirming my prediction....

Nothing before 2028 imo!!!

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Bring on Rome 2020, USA 2024 and Tokyo 2028!!!

You know what, I like the sound of that, though not neseccarily in that order.

2020 Tokyo - 12 years after Beijing

2024 Rome - 12 years after London

2028 USA - 12 years after Rio B)

Whatever the case, we've gone from a position where Africa was a dead weight around every other bids' necks, to a state where everything seems much more open again (if these noises from El Moutawakel are reflective of the IOC).

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Maybe she was referring to Rabat.

Who actually know when Africa will win...it could 2050 for all we know...

Is there an African city(s) that in 2020, with similar or lower risks than Rio, that could host deliver and host successful Games in 2020.

Yes.

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:blink: I think she won't be visiting candidate cities anymore...

Anyway, it's a bit confusing. Some IOC members say Africa is able to host the Games soon and that many people would give them their vote, but others, like this woman, say it's unlikely for Africa to host until 2040!!

So, I think the 2020 Olympics will be either in Europe or Asia... Go Madrid, the time and rotation are OK now, I hope they will bid for 2020 :lol:

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Some people said before that South America wouldnt host an olympics for a long time :rolleyes: ...

If i were them, i wouldnt put much attention to what this lady is saying. Being totally honest can be bad for you sometimes yaknow.

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Some people said before that South America wouldnt host an olympics for a long time :rolleyes: ...

Maybe they did, but had they chaired the two previous IOC Coordinating Commissions as well as being from the continent they questioned?

This is a powerful African IOC member saying this.

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This woman is biasly speaking. She's from Morocco & most likely wants them to host first. And Morocco ain't ready now. But maybe in 20 years Morocco "might" be.

She says she's "read" studies that some universities have done on the Olympics.. some would've said the same thing about South America 5 years ago.

South Africa has at least already provided an Olympic bid, has hosted many international sporting events & now the FIFA World Cup with great success. Her words are totally opposite of Sepp Blatter's. When she says "Africa unlikely...", she really means Morocco. :P

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I am surprised she made such a bold statement and won't comment on the prediction regarding the date when Africa might host (and yeah, it probably have something to do with Morocco's own Olympic aspirations).

This being said, Nawal is raising some very valid points.

Hosting the World Cup and the Olympics are very different.

By successfully hosting the WC, South-Africa has -once again- proven its organisational capability and it's for sure a big plus for any future Olympic bid.

However, it has by no mean proven that it had at the moment a city with the necessary infrastructure to support the hosting of the Games. The pressure that hosting a Games puts on the Host City cannot be overstated.

As long as we don't know what city South-Africa will put forward and have a more detailed idea about this city's plan assessing the risk level associated with this still putative bid is futile (for example, accommodation would be a tremendous challenge for Durban, if Durban was to be the bid city).

Before claiming the Games are South-Africa to lose, let's wait and see a concrete plan explaining not only how the city will overcome its challenges but also how hosting those Games fits into the city long-term development plan...

If South-Africa can be ready by 2020 with a plan presenting a reasonable level of risk and making sense with its urban development plans then by all mean let's go to South-Africa! Otherwise there is no harm in waiting until it's time.

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Assessing parts of the total risk is not futile at all.

Nobody can fully assess the risk even with "concrete" bid plans.

What we can assess is the significant Games operations/logistics risks between

1. Moving athletes and spectators between four clusters, some distance away, i.e. 15-35km away, relying on a BRT project that is not already in place

vs.

2. The majority of Olympic Venues along a single stretch of 5km from the CBD to a sports precinct, already served by good roads and a rail link the entire way.

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Well, a bit of a reality check after the WC-euphoria. And I doubt it's to do with Morocco's olympic ambitions - I'm sure Nawal's more than realistic about Morocco's capabilities, and would advise its NOC accordingly. And anyway, she directly addressed South Africa's WC hosting and its abilities and challenges for the future in the i'view. She's addressing what everyone knows and expects Africa's only realistic hosting chance soon is.

It's all very well to say that there are potential hosts in South Africa who are as capable - or more or less risky - than Rio is now. But Rio still has to prove itself at least before i think the IOC is going to make that leap again. And while Brazil's viability and responsibility as a potential host was examined and debated over and over during the 2016 bid race, I'd be quite sure the scrutiny on the social sustainability and legacy of a South Africa would be debated even more closely and meticulously. Fair or unfair or subjective or comparable or not, I still think taking the Olympics to Africa is a bigger step than taking them to South America.

Personally, though, I think Nawal's being a bit too pessimistic - my own timetable probably thinks its likely anytime within the next 20 years, but later more likely than sooner.

Really, . . . wouldn't a city like Alexandria Egypt be able to get a Summer Games together?

Alexandria missed its best chance in 1920, when the games were an order of magnitude tinier, Europe wasn't in a great shape post-WWI, Alexandria's standing as an important Mediterranean port was a damn sight more than now ands they had a Greek-Alexandrine millionaire, George Averoff, who was touted as maybe picking up the tab. Now, it may have some charms, but really its only a shanty satellite port of a far huger shanty megalopolis, Cairo. A nice place to visit, but scruffy as.

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SR sums it up all very nicely. The best observation I could add is that Nawal may also be looking to cool African aspirations as part of her own sincerely held beliefs of more cynically is being used as a front for the European lobby or certain elements within the IOC membership who are keen to downplay the efforts of Sepp Blather and FIFA. Don't expect that it's all a love in at the IOC when the football world cup is a success and the likes of Sepp goes around telling one and all about how the host nation could or should host a SOGs. The respective constituencies each have their own fiefdoms to look after and perhaps Nawal (who also must have considerable pull with her association with athletics which is a major component of the IOC/IF relationship) is serving as a cooling influence on the FIFA inspired advocates at the behest of others in the IOC who have the five rings at the heart of their influence.

RobH said...

View PostIkarus360, on 28 July 2010 - 06:27 PM, said:

Some people said before that South America wouldnt host an olympics for a long time :rolleyes: ...

Maybe they did, but had they chaired the two previous IOC Coordinating Commissions as well as being from the continent they questioned?

This is a powerful African IOC member saying this.

Damn straight Rob. Exec board membership and coordinating committee experience (plus a gold medallist) makes Nawal's opinions very important. And unlike Sepp Blather she isn't pushing an agenda separate from her IOC membership...

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Well, a bit of a reality check after the WC-euphoria. And I doubt it's to do with Morocco's olympic ambitions - I'm sure Nawal's more than realistic about Morocco's capabilities, and would advise its NOC accordingly.

Personally, though, I think Nawal's being a bit too pessimistic - my own timetable probably thinks its likely anytime within the next 20 years, but later more likely than sooner.

Precisely. 'Too pessimistic'. Because of course she's more than realistic about Morocco's capabilities, or lack there of at the moment. Which makes her comments seem a bit too drastic.

I'm sure she'd like to see Morocco give South Africa a run for their money for Africa's 1st Olympics. Everyone always has their own preferences & biases, no matter who they are. And that always gets put to the test on Olympic host city voting day.

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Assessing parts of the total risk is not futile at all.

Nobody can fully assess the risk even with "concrete" bid plans.

What we can assess is the significant Games operations/logistics risks between

1. Moving athletes and spectators between four clusters, some distance away, i.e. 15-35km away, relying on a BRT project that is not already in place

vs.

2. The majority of Olympic Venues along a single stretch of 5km from the CBD to a sports precinct, already served by good roads and a rail link the entire way.

And the less you know about the "concrete" bid plans the more intellectual mast*rbation it is...

And yeah Rio and Durban presents different risks.

All compact is good but it means that a huge flow of spectators, OF members will be concentrated in a small zone which presents significant risks by putting incredible pressure on existing transport links (what capacity can the rail line absorb? what's the projection of spectator flow at peak hours during the Games?). What's the foot print around the various foreseen venues? Does it allow for the temporary overlay for: broadcast compounds? parkings for athletes and OF? media subcentre?

Hard to guess the answer untli the plan is out.

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Wow. I'm surprised she said that.

Well, people said something similar about South America for the last 4 years and Rio won...

(Well, there are few who keep talking about South American problems 'til now and will talk forever.)

But I'm surprised an African citizen did that. At least all South America was united around Rio bid.

Something is wrong. Maybe she's biased, maybe she doesn't know much about South Africa...

IMHO this is completely weird.

Is there an African city(s) that in 2020, with similar or lower risks than Rio, that could host deliver and host successful Games in 2020.

Yes.

I have the same vision. There are cities in Africa with similar and/or lower risks than Rio to host.

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And the less you know about the "concrete" bid plans the more intellectual mast*rbation it is...

And yeah Rio and Durban presents different risks.

All compact is good but it means that a huge flow of spectators, OF members will be concentrated in a small zone which presents significant risks by putting incredible pressure on existing transport links (what capacity can the rail line absorb? what's the projection of spectator flow at peak hours during the Games?). What's the foot print around the various foreseen venues? Does it allow for the temporary overlay for: broadcast compounds? parkings for athletes and OF? media subcentre?

Hard to guess the answer untli the plan is out.

Correct.

The risk of too compact is congestion. In this case the fact that the land is readily available reduces land purchase issues, and the extent of the land and precinct is extensive enough to provide the additional front of house and back of house spaces required by the IF's and OCOG.

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[quote name='DannyelBrazil' date='29 July 2010 - 12:02 AM' timestamp='1280379762' post='276380'

But I'm surprised an African citizen did that. At least all South America was united around Rio bid.

The challenge I see here is that to non-Africans, Africa is a big, homogeneous continent. This was especially emphasized when pre-WC, many on here and in the press strove to find links between the gunning in Cabinda during CAF and the future security of the WC in South Africa. An African from Morocco is even further removed from South Africa than that event was.

Africa North of the Sahara is predominantly an Arab region that has nearly no cultural or economic similarities with Sub-Saharan Africa. The differences are as stark as the differences between Brazil and the USA. Viewing this person as an "African voice" on the IOC is ludicrous. She is just as much an "outsider" to South Africa as Dick Pound is.

That said, she does have an influential role, and it highlights the challenge that a South African bid will face in trying to build a supportive voting bloc, to avoid facing a Chicago-style humiliation.

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