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Any successful Toronto bid will depend on timing...when a gap appears between the new sexy exotics, the Europeans are appeased, the United States has either totally pissed off or mended fences with the IOC, and no Canadian city gets too itchy for a Winter Games.

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Bore off.

Well, if Toronto had entered, and you were going to make a list of the minus frtactors for the bids, you cpould say: Madrid - Spain's economy is in really bad shape Japan - Although Pyeongchang shou

MisterSG1 is simply ignorant of the fact that his "Canada" was created by immigrants themselves, much like my "Australia" is. We should be grateful for the immigrant populations from all corners of th

Any successful Toronto bid will depend on timing...when a gap appears between the new sexy exotics, the Europeans are appeased, the United States has either totally pissed off or mended fences with the IOC, and no Canadian city gets too itchy for a Winter Games.

Well-said. I would add though that we are likely to see an increase in frequency of Asia hostings, and this will come in to play. My bet remains on Toronto 2032.

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I'd put most Asian cities into the "New Sexy Exotics" category. Well, the "Big Olympic Three" of Asia that have already hosted are not as exotic anymore. And most of the others in Asia are not quite there yet on the whole matrix of things - infrastructure, influence, organizational ability, legacy, sporting prowess, prestige, etc.

And in the Olympic world, Canada is closest on the matrix to Australia. Some exceptions...Canada can actually host the Winter Olympics, Australia is slightly more exotic, Canada is closer to Europe and the United States, Australia is a stronger summer sport power. So in my mind, that puts Canada's next Summer Olympics about 50+ years after the first Summer Olympics - Montreal 1976, followed by Toronto 2028 or 2032?

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Cannot see Canada hosting another summer olympics for at least 30 years and probably longer. now that hosting the games is extremely popular for cities worldwide, what's in it for the IOC to return the games to Canada? Canada is a previous host country; doesnt have a particularly large population; its international power and inlfluence will stagnate and become negligible as the developing countries continue to rapidly growth; its current international power and influence is already minor (Canada is on every major international "group" or organization just because the US wants to have 2 votes); will have negligible growth in the next 50 years (in comparison to the emerging economies); despite its wealth, has not been a major power at the summer olympics historically; and for a country of its size, Canada has had its fair share of Olympics with 3. Not to mention, prospective Canadian host cities aren't all that iconic, exotic or fascinating (specifically from an international perspective; which may be naive but people's interest in Toronto just doesnt compare with Rio, Paris, Tokyo, Cape Town etc) for a summer games.

i really can't see how the IOC could justify awarding Canada another Olympics before Africa (which now has viable hosting options in South Africa and therefore cannot be easily overlooked anymore), a muslim city (doubt this would before 2028, but by then Istanbul could possibly host while obviously Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi are all capable), Japan (previous host like Canada but exceeds Canada in almost every other relevant category (population, economy, influence, sports success, duration since last Olympics, recognisability of candidate city)) and France (same reasons as Japan). Hosting 2010 surely rules Canada out for 2020-2024; especially considering bids from particularly RSA, Japan and France. By 2028/2032, the US would surely bid again and provided they selected a decent candidate (Chicago, SF, NYC, Miami)would certainly be awarded the games ahead of a Canadian city (not necessarily 2028/2032, but the next games in NA from that point on) since the US TV audiences are the main reason why the games would return to North America . By 2028/2032 also, India would be pushing hard for an olympics and like with Beijing/China I think the IOC will be forced to award Delhi an Olympics in at least the 2030's. Personally I don't think India should host an Olympics for 50 years because of their extreme poverty, but if by 2030's the world's 3rd richest country (by then) with 1/6 of humanity is demanding a games then the IOC would surely gave in (and Delhi should be better prepared in 20+ years anyway). Then there's also Rome, Berlin, Saint Petersburg, Kuala Lumpur (2028+), Buenos Aires as strong bidders.

If Canada hasn't been awarded the games already by 2040, then another big player comes along; China. 32 years after Beijing would surely be sufficient for the world's most populous and by then most powerful and richest country. Shanghai vs Toronto 2040 would look very similar to 2008's voting. 2040 would be appropriate timing for China since they are forecasted to overtake the US as the richest country in the world by 2038 also. By 2040, China would have a strong argument to host an Olympics every 2 years as purely from a population perspective, they would be entitled to 1 in every 6 games and by then be able to back it up financially also.

So personally I'd expect the games to be awarded to Africa, Europe twice, the US, India, Middle East, Japan and China before another Canadian host. So 2052 at the earliest for mine!

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Cannot see Canada hosting another summer olympics for at least 30 years and probably longer. now that hosting the games is extremely popular for cities worldwide, what's in it for the IOC to return the games to Canada? Canada is a previous host country; doesnt have a particularly large population; its international power and inlfluence will stagnate and become negligible as the developing countries continue to rapidly growth; its current international power and influence is already minor (Canada is on every major international "group" or organization just because the US wants to have 2 votes); will have negligible growth in the next 50 years (in comparison to the emerging economies); despite its wealth, has not been a major power at the summer olympics historically; and for a country of its size, Canada has had its fair share of Olympics with 3. Not to mention, prospective Canadian host cities aren't all that iconic, exotic or fascinating (specifically from an international perspective; which may be naive but people's interest in Toronto just doesnt compare with Rio, Paris, Tokyo, Cape Town etc) for a summer games.

i really can't see how the IOC could justify awarding Canada another Olympics before Africa (which now has viable hosting options in South Africa and therefore cannot be easily overlooked anymore), a muslim city (doubt this would before 2028, but by then Istanbul could possibly host while obviously Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi are all capable), Japan (previous host like Canada but exceeds Canada in almost every other relevant category (population, economy, influence, sports success, duration since last Olympics, recognisability of candidate city)) and France (same reasons as Japan). Hosting 2010 surely rules Canada out for 2020-2024; especially considering bids from particularly RSA, Japan and France. By 2028/2032, the US would surely bid again and provided they selected a decent candidate (Chicago, SF, NYC, Miami)would certainly be awarded the games ahead of a Canadian city (not necessarily 2028/2032, but the next games in NA from that point on) since the US TV audiences are the main reason why the games would return to North America . By 2028/2032 also, India would be pushing hard for an olympics and like with Beijing/China I think the IOC will be forced to award Delhi an Olympics in at least the 2030's. Personally I don't think India should host an Olympics for 50 years because of their extreme poverty, but if by 2030's the world's 3rd richest country (by then) with 1/6 of humanity is demanding a games then the IOC would surely gave in (and Delhi should be better prepared in 20+ years anyway). Then there's also Rome, Berlin, Saint Petersburg, Kuala Lumpur (2028+), Buenos Aires as strong bidders.

If Canada hasn't been awarded the games already by 2040, then another big player comes along; China. 32 years after Beijing would surely be sufficient for the world's most populous and by then most powerful and richest country. Shanghai vs Toronto 2040 would look very similar to 2008's voting. 2040 would be appropriate timing for China since they are forecasted to overtake the US as the richest country in the world by 2038 also. By 2040, China would have a strong argument to host an Olympics every 2 years as purely from a population perspective, they would be entitled to 1 in every 6 games and by then be able to back it up financially also.

So personally I'd expect the games to be awarded to Africa, Europe twice, the US, India, Middle East, Japan and China before another Canadian host. So 2052 at the earliest for mine!

There's never any guarantees in bidding, and that scenario could well pan out, but it really does sound a bit pessimistic, even unlikely, especially for a long-range forecast (even picking one games ahead is as much guesswork as judgement).

For a start, yes, there is the appeal of the exotic new frontiers. But as has happened in the 100-plus years of the modern games to date, I think “exotic” hostings are still gonna be the exception rather than the rule in the foreseeable future. Yeah, (South) Africa will probably snare a hosting before too long, but I don't rate the chances of the Middle East or India or South East Asia as host regions within the next half-century as very high. The IOC aren't beholden to give them to anyone, and NO bidder is in a position to demand them. New frontier proposals may appeal to many people for the notion of variety, but really I think the prediction of heading off to a new frontier even once every 20 or 30 years or so is a bit optimistic. It may not please people, but there's likely to be far more repeat hosters and hostings in “safe”, established countries than exotic locals in the years ahead.

On the other side of the coin, you're probably right that the likes of Japan, France, Germany and the USA will account for many of the successful bids in coming decades. But not all at once, one after the other, either. Take Europe, for example. Berlin, Paris, Rome, Madrid, St Petersburg/Moscow etc will all be strong chances in the next 50 years. But I would also bet my bottom dollar that not all of them will succeed – indeed, I think it would be likely less than half will succeed in that time.

What Toronto does have in its favour is it's one of the few possible contenders in a region (the Americas) that will have timing and rotation in its favour as often as Asia or Europe or anywhere else will. It's only real strong competitor in the region is the US. But again, there'll be strong resistance from many quarters for the US to get many repeat hostings. Canada, as a prosperous and advanced nation, will benefit from NOT being the US, this giving the IOC the chance to award the games to an important time zone for broadcasters without leaving themselves open to claims of going to the USA too often And anyway, I see no reason, given a good bid plan, that Toronto couldn't beat a US contender in a head-to-head campaign. Mexico and Buenos Aires are possibilities, but I sure wouldn't rate either as “strong” chances – outside hopes at best. It wouldn't surprise me if Rio 2016 was the only South American hosting of the 21st century.

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If everyone still loves to hate the US like all the games-bidders...then Toronto will have a few opportunities in the coming decades, but truth be told.....it's a pretty ugly city with a tall pointy tower that was once a tallest this or that. It's a concrete mess. If you love a concrete games, I'd much rather go back to Calgary for winter spin.

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Canada, as a prosperous and advanced nation, will benefit from NOT being the US, this giving the IOC the chance to award the games to an important time zone for broadcasters without leaving themselves open to claims of going to the USA too often And anyway, I see no reason, given a good bid plan, that Toronto couldn't beat a US contender in a head-to-head campaign.

Tbh, this is the only advantage I see that Canada has if the IOC really wanted to distance themselves further from the U.S. Because frankly, for a small nation with only 35 million people, that's not very Summer sport strong at the Olympics, Canada has had their extremely good share of the Olympic spotlight.

Not to mention having the very good connections within the Olympic movement at which Dick Pound doesn't seem to have that much of anymore (if he ever really did). And we all know around here that just having a "good bid plan" is not enough for winning an Olympic bid. Like some like to say; it's all about lobbying, good relations & good "renders". :P

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  • 3 weeks later...

No...I think a Toronto Olympics is an inevitable event.

Being in the Americas, they are in a big zone that has a limited amount of Olympic offerings because there are fewer big countries in that zone. In the Americas only the US, Mexico, Canada, and Brazil have ever been awarded the Games. And the only others that might be added to that list is maybe Argentina, possibly Chile or at an extreme distance, Cuba if things rapidly change there in the future. Focus that zone in closer on North America and on those that are in a real position at this time, and the options drop to three - a US city, a Canadian city or a Mexican city (and that one is a big 'if').

So as the Games spin around the world throughout the rest of my life, they'll land in Europe a few more times, pop by Asia now and then and they'll definitely be back in the Americas. Africa, I'm still iffy on. Yeah, someday they'll be in South Africa...not sure when. And while it might happen, but I'd be very surprised to see another Australian Games in my lifetime. But if I do live another 40 years, I'm pretty much certain that I'll see another summer Games in Canada.

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Toronto will host an Olympics, may not be in the 20's but at some point in the future it HAS to happen.

no, it doesnt.

notice how its only canadians saying Toronto will host in the next 40 years.

for the record i doubt Australia will host another Olympics until Melbourne 2096 (bookmark it).

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no, it doesnt.

notice how its only canadians saying Toronto will host in the next 40 years.

for the record i doubt Australia will host another Olympics until Melbourne 2096 (bookmark it).

Not just Canucks. I'll say now that Toronto's almost certain to host a summer games well long before they'll ever make a return to Oz.

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Its simple really, North America has to host once in awhile, the IOC isn't just gonna give the games to cities like Doha and Dubai when ever they come calling. As long as there isn't any strong US competition, and its been about two decades since North America Hosted the summer games id say it would be an easy win for Toronto.

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i was hopping people wouldnt read page pg 13 lol. your probably a canadian expat anyway

and im not saying canada won't host another olympics before australia; just that neither will host for at least another 40 years.

Canuck expat! :angry:

Neither I or my ancestors have ever set foot on Canadian soil. I'm proud to say I'm 50 per cent German, 50 per cent Swedish and 100 per cent Bronzed Aussie.

Considering 40 years isn't a huge time span in Olympic history, you may be right. But when it comes to the Americas, there's not that many options (Rio's probably the only viable non US-Canadian option for the forseeable future). I'd rate Toronto as by far the most likely Americas candidate outside the USA, and wouldn't be surprised at all to even see it host before the games ever made it back to the US again.

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Its simple really, North America has to host once in awhile, the IOC isn't just gonna give the games to cities like Doha and Dubai when ever they come calling. As long as there isn't any strong US competition, and its been about two decades since North America Hosted the summer games id say it would be an easy win for Toronto.

i'd say you'd be wrong. The next North American Olympics will be in 2024/2028/2032 (more likely 2028/2032). If the USA selects one of San Francisco, New York or Chicago then they'll win the bid. The main appeal of hosting a North American Olympics is the US television revenue; so if the duration between US hosts is quite long (three to four decades), then whats the point of going to Canada when there are better and more lucrative alternatives (and no "recent host issue").

After that, the Americas won't host another games for at least 12 years; so then its the 2040's. i think its more likely a Latin American host would stage the next Games in the Americas after the US, though that certainly is debatable. so at best i doubt Toronto would host any earlier than 2040; but more likely 2056+

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I have to agree Toronto won't get the Olympics. Where is the money going to come from since the IOC wants government backing. Toronto doesn't even have a train from the airport to downtown, well I can't see it.

The transportation line from Downtown Toronto to Pearson Airport is scheduled to be completed by 2015 so I don't know what your talking about. Add to the fact the city is also currently in the process of subway extension construction.

The Province of Ontario has committed $8.15 billion to build new transit by 2020.

Metrolinx Statement to the Public

Vehicle Procurement for Air Rail Link

Tuesday November 16th, 2010 – Metrolinx is moving forward to connect Toronto Union Station and Pearson International Airport with new highly efficient rail shuttle vehicles. This express rail service will be ready for the upcoming Pan Am Games in 2015. The Air Rail Link will ensure reliable travel times to the airport and will take millions of car trips off area roads.

Metrolinx will be entering into formal negotiations with Sumitomo Corporation of America to exercise an option from the Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit (California) procurement contract to purchase up to eighteen (18) highly efficient Diesel Multiple Units (DMU’s). These vehicles will meet stringent Tier 4 emissions standards and will be convertible to electric for the Air Rail Link.

Following an open and competitive procurement process, Sumitomo Corporation is being considered for the award of a contract to produce DMU vehicles for Sonoma-Marin. An option clause in the contract gives Metrolinx the ability to purchase additional vehicles from the winner of the Sonoma-Marin procurement process.

Metrolinx wishes to use this option clause in the Sonoma-Marin contract in order to have vehicles delivered in time for public use of the Air Rail Link service, prior to the Pan Am Games in 2015.

There are currently no Canadian manufacturers of the required locomotive technology.

Metrolinx, with the unanimous support of its Board of Directors, concluded that entering the negotiation to exercise the option would obtain the best value for Ontario.

If the negotiations are successful, Metrolinx will announce the details of the procurement when an agreement is reached.

Bruce McCuaig, President and CEO, Metrolinx

Gary McNeil, President, GO Transit and Acting President, Air Rail Link

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Canuck expat! :angry:

Neither I or my ancestors have ever set foot on Canadian soil. I'm proud to say I'm 50 per cent German, 50 per cent Swedish and 100 per cent Bronzed Aussie.

Sorry rols i was being sarcastic to cover myself

Considering 40 years isn't a huge time span in Olympic history, you may be right.

thats exactly my point. There's only 8 Olympic bids to be decided for the next 40 years; and with 1 already pencilled in for the USA (which i think is far more likely than Canada) i doubt there would be 2 in North America. If there is a second, well it wouldnt come until the end of the 40 years anyway

But when it comes to the Americas, there's not that many options (Rio's probably the only viable non US-Canadian option for the forseeable future).

But there doesnt need to be many options. Only 1 maybe 2 more Olympics will be awarded to the Americas in the next 40 years. So reserving 1 for the USA, then there only needs to be one other viable candidate to at least terminate the inevitability of Toronto hosting.

(Rio's probably the only viable non US-Canadian option for the forseeable future)

Thats absolutely right for the forseeable future. But by the 2040's, there could be and probably will be many more viable hosts. Mexico and Brazil are forecasted to be among the 5 richest countries in the world by 2050; so perhaps Guadalajara could provide a strong alternative. But IMO, Buenos Aires must be the strongest chance of hosting the next Latin American Games and if Rio is adjudged capable to host the Games currently, then I can't see why Buenos Aires shouldn't also be recognised as being capable of hoting the Games in the near future also; let alone the 2040's. BA is comparatively similar to Rio in population but considered much safer and also citizens enjoy a higher GDP per capita. So I absolutely believe that BA will be a very competitive candidate for the next non-US host from the Americas; and at least be a "new" Olympic country where as Canada would be attempting to host their 4th or 5th Games (if they host another winter olympics). its all speculative, but I think US-Latin America is more likely as the next 2 Olympic hosts in the Americas than Canada featuring.

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Thats absolutely right for the forseeable future. But by the 2040's, there could be and probably will be many more viable hosts. Mexico and Brazil are forecasted to be among the 5 richest countries in the world by 2050; so perhaps Guadalajara could provide a strong alternative. But IMO, Buenos Aires must be the strongest chance of hosting the next Latin American Games and if Rio is adjudged capable to host the Games currently, then I can't see why Buenos Aires shouldn't also be recognised as being capable of hoting the Games in the near future also; let alone the 2040's. BA is comparatively similar to Rio in population but considered much safer and also citizens enjoy a higher GDP per capita. So I absolutely believe that BA will be a very competitive candidate for the next non-US host from the Americas; and at least be a "new" Olympic country where as Canada would be attempting to host their 4th or 5th Games (if they host another winter olympics). its all speculative, but I think US-Latin America is more likely as the next 2 Olympic hosts in the Americas than Canada featuring.

Well, we'll just have to disagree on that. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if Rio's the ONLY Latin American hosting in the next hundred years. As for BA - they really need to get their act together - last time I was there it was nice enough, but very reliant on faded glory - basket case or sh!thole would have been closer to the mark.

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And just when exactly were you there? Right after the economic meltdown almost a decade ago now? Any nation would be a 'basketcase & sh!thole' right after something like that.

And I'd have to agree with Triffle; It's not 'simple', really. North America doesn't "have to" host once in awhile. We all know too well that the IOC doesn't "guarantee" anything to anyone. And considering how the IOC has snubbed North America lately (both with the United States & Canada), I wouldn't be surprised in the least if North America is lucky enough to see another SUMMER Olympics within the next 20 years. And then ions after that, considering all the new options that the IOC will have with new emerging countries & markets.

Between 1932 & 1968, it was a 36 year gap between North American Summer Games. And North America is right on track to see another dry spell just as big.

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And just when exactly were you there? Right after the economic meltdown almost a decade ago now? Any nation would be a 'basketcase & sh!thole' right after something like that.

And I'd have to agree with Triffle; It's not 'simple', really. North America doesn't "have to" host once in awhile. We all know too well that the IOC doesn't "guarantee" anything to anyone. And considering how the IOC has snubbed North America lately (both with the United States & Canada), I wouldn't be surprised in the least if North America is lucky enough to see another SUMMER Olympics within the next 20 years. And then ions after that, considering all the new options that the IOC will have with new emerging countries & markets.

Between 1932 & 1968, it was a 36 year gap between North American Summer Games. And North America is right on track to see another dry spell just as big.

Fair enough. I do regret that comment. Just feeling a bit grumpy yesterday. Please excuse it.

I guess It's just the heart and soul of most of the major and heated debates here - new frontiers versus safe and sures. I just think that exotic new frontier hostings are still likely to continue be the exceptions rather than the rules in the decades ahead. I expect the bulk of hostings are always gonna go to the tried and true European, North American and East Asian hosts contenders (what many here would consider boring), with the odd new frontier to spice things up now and then, and a sprinkling even of occasional second tier cities, a la Atlanta and Barcelona. Pinpointing any particular city for a distant hosting is fraught - it's hard enough to forecast one Olympiad ahead, much less decades.

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  • 5 months later...

I could see Toronto trying - but 2020 may be too soon.

ANYHOW _ I would really like to see the TOP sponsors and NBC put the hard word on the IOC next time those contracts come up for renegotiation. I think we would get a US Olympics really quickly if the money started drying up.

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