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LuigiVercotti
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This is going to be one of the reasons if and when Toronto wins. If not then it won't win.

To be frank, I don't think Toronto will win in the 2020's. Id be very surprised. I think if Canada can refrain from bidding for the Winter Olympics, Toronto would stand a strong chance after at least 12 years past an impending US Olympics. That puts it back to 2036/40.

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I'm sure 89% of Sydneysiders would support a bid for 2028 - doesn't mean it should happen, or if it did, that it should expect to be successful. This goes for Melbourne too. You want talk about compact bid plans -there is a city that could give Toronto a run for its money. Australians seem to be able to accept we've had our share of the cake, the fact that Canadian authorities are making vigorous plans to go ahead with another Olympic bid in the wake of 1976, 1988 and 2010 astounds me.

Australia has hosted two summer Games. Canada has hosted once the summer games and Canada's population is about 12.5 million people more. Canada is an unique position being in a continent where there are only two viable hosts, both of which can stage winter and summer Olympics. Hence, why Australia is an unique position to host the games every 40-60 years.

Why did a blank Sir Rols' comment get quoted too? :ph34r:

To be frank, I don't think Toronto will win in the 2020's. Id be very surprised. I think if Canada can refrain from bidding for the Winter Olympics, Toronto would stand a strong chance after at least 12 years past an impending US Olympics. That puts it back to 2036/40.

Or 32 if USA gets 2026.

Edited by intoronto1125
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I still don't think Durban will be the far away favourite just because its Africa. Going to a new frontier so soon after Rio and potentially Istanbul seems very iffy to me. That view of mine won't change.

That may be so, but if Africa doesn't get it, I see it going to Europe for 2024, especially if the Parisians are in it.

Istanbul maybe getting 2020 is neither here nor there, since by the time the 2024 vote comes around, Rio 2016 will have already been hosted.

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That's one thing that Toronto's bidding team would need to work hard on. Coming up with a compelling argument as to why the city should be awarded the games besides it probably having the best bid out of the bunch of candidates which in reality will probably be true.

Exactly, Toronto will need to come up with a convincing case as to why it would bring more to Olympism than ANYBODY else it's bidding against. But be careful of using the term "best" bid. I guess you mean the best technical bid, but even that would be very much subject to the eye of the beholder. I'm sure the likes of a Paris, Berlin or Madrid would give it a run for the technical scores. And for many, the "best" bid could also be the one that was most symbolic, or most suited sharing or rotating the games.

After all, the majority of votes is based on political b.s.

One man's bullsh!t is another man's consensus, or simply what's more important to them - technical abilities or symbolism.

Edited by Sir Rols
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To be frank, I don't think Toronto will win in the 2020's. Id be very surprised. I think if Canada can refrain from bidding for the Winter Olympics, Toronto would stand a strong chance after at least 12 years past an impending US Olympics. That puts it back to 2036/40.

I agree. Sixty years after Montreal is a good time frame for a nation of only 35 million that has already hosted 3 Olympic Games.

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That may be so, but if Africa doesn't get it, I see it going to Europe for 2024, especially if the Parisians are in it.

Istanbul maybe getting 2020 is neither here nor there, since by the time the 2024 vote comes around, Rio 2016 will have already been hosted.

And thats the crux of it. The current backlog of capable cities with sentimentalities attached to them is big. Toronto would no doubt be shortlisted - but I don't think it'll get the "frontrunner" label it had in 2008. This time, it has the potential to face a very serious Paris, Istanbul/Tokyo, Rome, Durban, New York/Chicago. It really is a huge list. If the 1976 Olympics had been in Melbourne and it were Sydney going for 2024, I wouldn't like its chances.

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And thats the crux of it. The current backlog of capable cities with sentimentalities attached to them is big. Toronto would no doubt be shortlisted - but I don't think it'll get the "frontrunner" label it had in 2008. This time, it has the potential to face a very serious Paris, Istanbul/Tokyo, Rome, Durban, New York/Chicago. It really is a huge list. If the 1976 Olympics had been in Melbourne and it were Sydney going for 2024, I wouldn't like its chances.

Beijing was without far and about the frontrunner for 2008 not Toronto.

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But keeping in mind Summer and Winter Olympics are different events.

This old nugget. Yes, to an extent. They are different versions of an event overseen by the SAME international organisation, and same voting body. So expect that they will excuse themselves for voting for another city from the same country in a relatively short period of time.

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And thats the crux of it. The current backlog of capable cities with sentimentalities attached to them is big. Toronto would no doubt be shortlisted - but I don't think it'll get the "frontrunner" label it had in 2008. This time, it has the potential to face a very serious Paris, Istanbul/Tokyo, Rome, Durban, New York/Chicago. It really is a huge list. If the 1976 Olympics had been in Melbourne and it were Sydney going for 2024, I wouldn't like its chances.

Toronto didn't have a "front runner label" for 2008. Beijing had it all the way through.

There's many different possible scenarios that could play out. Without bidding, the city would not even have a chance. If it bids, it will be shortlisted giving it a chance. It's not like an impossible feat but it would be a uphill battle. I also believe the city wouldn't allow this to go forward unless it believed it had a fighting chance to win it. This would be the 3rd attempt.

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Australia has hosted two summer Games. Canada has hosted once the summer games and Canada's population is about 12.5 million people more. Canada is an unique position being in a continent where there are only two viable hosts, both of which can stage winter and summer Olympics. Hence, why Australia is an unique position to host the games every 40-60 years.

Canada is a winter power. It deservedly has hosted a few WOGs. It will host more in the future.

Australia can't ever host a winter games. But it is a summer games sports power (well, a lot of the time). If you are looking at historical results and summer sports tradition (which you often bring up when the subject of Dubai or Doha comes up) it's probably got a far more compelling case to be a multiple SOG host than Canada. But as runningrings has pointed out, that still wouldn't be enough to justify us going for another one again in the near future.

Edited by Sir Rols
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Australia has hosted two summer Games. Canada has hosted once the summer games and Canada's population is about 12.5 million people more. Canada is an unique position being in a continent where there are only two viable hosts, both of which can stage winter and summer Olympics. Hence, why Australia is an unique position to host the games every 40-60 years.

Australia is also in the unique position of being the only country that can realistically host the Summer Olympics in greater Australiasia/SE Asia (at the present). ;) Population difference between Canada and Australia is irrelevant. We're both mid sized countries with moderate global relevance.

This is a very convenient way for a Canadian to view Olympic geopolitics. Yes, Australia has done extremely well from the IOC to host two Olympic Games within 44 years. Canada has hosted the Summer Olympics once in 1976. You could say that this is an appropriate amount given Canada hasn't put anywhere near the same amount of efforts into the Summer Games that Australia has - the latter is an iconic Summer Olympics nation with a population of a mere 22.5 million that beats itself up for not matching the likes of the far larger USA, Russia, China, Japan and GB in 2012.

There are other countries, like France, Japan and Germany that last hosted the Summer Games well before Canada, and are far bigger players in the Summer Games that take that argument completely out of Canada's court. Coupled with having hosted the Winter Olympics in 1988 and 2010, and the argument gets weaker.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not against Canada hosting a second Summer Games based on its current performance, I just think its own argument can be used against it by other countries. If Vancouver 2010 never happened, i'd be guns-blazing behind Toronto for 2024 - as the next North American city to host.

Quite frankly, I just don't think we'll see a fourth Canadian Olympics, second consecutive in North America, staged in the face of the US, beyond its issues with the IOC.

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Canada is a winter power. It deservedly has hosted a few WOGs. It will host more in the future.

Australia can't ever host a winter games. But it is a summer games sports power (well, a lot of the time). If you are looking at historical results and summer sports tradition (which you often bring up when the subject of Dubai or Doha comes up) it's probably got a far more compelling case to be a multiple SOG host than Canada. But as runningrings has pointed out, that still wouldn't be enough to justify us going for another one again in the near future.

Near future being the 2020's? Off course twenty years after might be too soon. Distance btween 76 and 2024 is 48 which is a fair amount of waiting time (not saying Toronto will win 24). Canada might not have a big of sports pedigree but with more funding (doubled from the last quad) things are on the upswing. Canada's goal is to be in the top 10 in Rio in terms of overall medal count.Take a look at UK in Atlanta 1 gold like Canada in London.

Just a note if Canada was in Europe I don't think Toronto would even be in a discussion to host in the next couple of cycles due to Rome, Paris, Germany all waiting their turn

Edited by intoronto1125
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Near future being the 2020's? Off course twenty years after might be too soon. Distance btween 76 and 2024 is 48 which is a fair amount of waiting time. Canada might not have a big of sports pedigree but with more funding (doubled from the last quad) things are on the upswing. Take a look at Uk in Atlanta 1 gold like Canada in London.

No, near future as in I doubt Australia would get a look-in before the 2050s at least.

And while 48 years between summer shouts might sound fine, it sounds less impressive when you factor in two winter editions in-between.

Edited by Sir Rols
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Toronto didn't have a "front runner label" for 2008. Beijing had it all the way through.

There's many different possible scenarios that could play out. Without bidding, the city would not even have a chance. If it bids, it will be shortlisted giving it a chance. It's not like an impossible feat but it would be a uphill battle. I also believe the city wouldn't allow this to go forward unless it believed it had a fighting chance to win it. This would be the 3rd attempt.

While Beijing was the favourite for 2008, Toronto, with Paris were both seen as frontrunners should the Chinese bid fall into possible political fallout, given its controversial nature. From memory, Toronto had a slight edge over Paris as 2004 and 2006 were in Europe, and 2002 and 1996 were in the US. It made sense that if Beijing buckled under its own baggage, that 2008 go to the stable, reliable Toronto... the antithesis to American Atlanta 12 years before.

Edited by runningrings
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No, near future as in I doubt Australia would get a look-in before the 2050s at least.

And while 48 years between summer shouts might sound fine, it sounds less impressive when you factor in two winter editions in-between.

Again I will reiterate Vancouver will be the elephant in the room to a potential Toronto bid.

Well after Tokyo hosts and possibly China? again then logically speaking its Melbourne's time?

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And while 48 years between summer shouts might sound fine, it sounds less impressive when you factor in two winter editions in-between.

And when you also factor in France's 100 years, & Italy's 64 years, & Germany's 52 years (with a population more than double) it definltely becomes far less impressive then.

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Lets summarize:

Strengths:

-Compact venue plan (Olympic park constructed in the heart of downtown Toronto with great backdrop view of skyline infront of most of the Olympic venues._

-Sound economy and proven ability to host (Pan Am's)

-Repeat bidder (3rd time is a charm?)

-"There is a considerable legacy element in the sports concept' (From 2008 evaluation report).

Weakness:

-1 Summer Games and 2 Winter Games already in Canada (too much for a middle power?).

-Weaker compelling argument (say vs France's 100 years and South Africa's last frontier).

Edited by intoronto1125
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Again I will reiterate Vancouver will be the elephant in the room to a potential Toronto bid.

Well after Tokyo hosts and possibly China? again then logically speaking its Melbourne's time?

Not exactly. While geographically we are Asia, politically we are not. This can work to our advantage, and can work against us. Does the IOC take Oceania seriously? Probably not. Australia will host again when the timing is right and we can slip in amongst the rest of the world's shuffling and rotating. I'd say realistically Australia won't have a real chance until 2040 at the earliest. I'm happy with that, it seems fair. I personally would like to see the next Australian Olympics be another Sydney or Melbourne (held in the last week of September, and first week of October). While Brisbane's climate is favourable, I don't think it is Olympic material. It would be an Australian Atlanta.

Anyway, thats waaay off topic.

Lets summarize:

Strengths:

-Compact venue plan

-Sound economy and proven ability to host (Pan Am's)

-Repeat bidder (3rd time is a charm?)

-"There is a considerable legacy element in the sports concept' (From 2008 evaluation report).

Weakness:

-1 Summer Games and 2 Winter Games already in Canada for a middle power.

-Weak compelling argument (say vs France's 100 years and South Africa's last frontier).

That's Toronto for me. I think it should sit out 2024 and wait to see if the US wins/loses and goes ahead with 2026. If the US won 2026, then Toronto could go guns blazing for 2028/32 (I'd be reluctant to see back to back NA in 2026/28 - although its entirely possible.)

As for Canada's unique position as one of only three "potential' hosts in North America - there is nothing to say that the Olympics have to go to NA at a certain frequency. I think that has more to do with the US than it has to do with Canada or Mexico. Take away the US and North America would be another Oceania. In terms of time zones, to suit US markets, we need to consider the fact that South America is opening up now. Rio 2016 is just as valuable to NBC as Toronto or Chicago.

Edited by runningrings
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Hi intoronto,

You forgot to mention the waterfront based Olympics Toronto would propose, Olympic park constructed in the heart of downtown Toronto with great backdrop view of skyline infront of most of the Olympic venues. Makes for great tv shots. Timezone is optimal, great lasting legacy plan, government finances are there to spend on these games. The city will redevelop another wasteland area of the city.

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Hi intoronto,

You forgot to mention the waterfront based Olympics Toronto would propose, Olympic park constructed in the heart of downtown Toronto with great backdrop view of skyline infront of most of the Olympic venues. Makes for great tv shots. Timezone is optimal, great lasting legacy plan, government finances are there to spend on these games. The city will redevelop another wasteland area of the city.

Yes that too.

Not exactly. While geographically we are Asia, politically we are not. This can work to our advantage, and can work against us. Does the IOC take Oceania seriously? Probably not. Australia will host again when the timing is right and we can slip in amongst the rest of the world's shuffling and rotating. I'd say realistically Australia won't have a real chance until 2040 at the earliest. I'm happy with that, it seems fair. I personally would like to see the next Australian Olympics be another Sydney or Melbourne (held in the last week of September, and first week of October). While Brisbane's climate is favourable, I don't think it is Olympic material. It would be an Australian Atlanta.

Anyway, thats waaay off topic.

That's Toronto for me. I think it should sit out 2024 and wait to see if the US wins/loses and goes ahead with 2026. If the US won 2026, then Toronto could go guns blazing for 2028/32 (I'd be reluctant to see back to back NA in 2026/28 - although its entirely possible.)

2040 - 40 years after Sydney, but didn't you say 1976/2024 for a hypothetical Sydney/Melbourne hosting was too soon? Pardon me for being the devil's advocate here.

I don't think we are at a point that USA/Canada will be awarded back to back games. Hypothetically speaking if Tokyo/Istanbul were to get 2020 and 2024 followed up with Paris and then it almost assures South africa who would be bidding for a third time with a more compelling finish the frontier argument for 2028. So if not 2024 then 2032 at the earlies and only if the USA has gotten 2026.

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Yes that too.

2040 - 40 years after Sydney, but didn't you say 1976/2024 for a hypothetical Sydney/Melbourne hosting was too soon? Pardon me for being the devil's advocate here.

I'd honestly think we'd have a tall order, and thats without the possibility of Winter Olympics in our history.

Australia did very well to get 2000, it was a great bid, but we benefited from China slipping up. Had Beijing won 2000, who knows what would have happened? Sydney 2004? Maybe Athens would be too strong? Australia wouldn't have persisted. We might have seen Melbourne currently preparing for 2016, or Sydney as a current frontrunner against Tokyo and Istanbul for 2020. It's all interesting speculation.

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I'd honestly think we'd have a tall order, and thats without the possibility of Winter Olympics in our history.

Australia did very well to get 2000, it was a great bid, but we benefited from China slipping up. Had Beijing won 2000, who knows what would have happened? Sydney 2004? Maybe Athens would be too strong? Australia wouldn't have persisted. We might have seen Melbourne currently preparing for 2016, or Sydney as a current frontrunner against Tokyo and Istanbul for 2020. It's all interesting speculation.

Melbourne already had the nod for 2004 if Sydney had not won 2000. That being the case, in the event the AOC changed it's mind and decided on a domestic bid race, who knows, Brisbane might have clenched it on the dates factor and won us Brisbane 2004.

Seeing as Sydney was more than happy to build an Olympic Park, I wouldn't be surprised if Brisbane tweaked it's 1992 bid and proposed the CBD, Chandler and the Boondall areas as clusters. Building an Olympic Stadium there as a replacement or supplement of QEII Stadium (which would have probably been heavily downsized to form the nearby University's athletics centre).

When did Brisbane won it's bid for the 2001 Goodwill Games? 1995? I'm certain if Brisbane were bidding for 2004, it would make a huge mention of such an event and consider it a test event for the Olympics, where many Olympic proposed venues would be used if completed by that time.

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Melbourne already had the nod for 2004 if Sydney had not won 2000. That being the case, in the event the AOC changed it's mind and decided on a domestic bid race, who knows, Brisbane might have clenched it on the dates factor and won us Brisbane 2004.

It was a throw away statement, didn't consider Melbourne's designs on hosting the 2004 Olympics.

It is interesting though, with the 2006 Commonwealth Games as a reference, its not hard to imagine what might have been. It would have certainly been a great Olympics, arguably far more sustainable and legacy driven than Athens ended up as. I think a 21st century Melbourne Olympics would be more like London 2012 than Sydney 2000 in that regard.

Anyway, enough what-if's...back to Toronto.

Edited by runningrings
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I'd honestly think we'd have a tall order, and thats without the possibility of Winter Olympics in our history.

Australia did very well to get 2000, it was a great bid, but we benefited from China slipping up. Had Beijing won 2000, who knows what would have happened? Sydney 2004? Maybe Athens would be too strong? Australia wouldn't have persisted. We might have seen Melbourne currently preparing for 2016, or Sydney as a current frontrunner against Tokyo and Istanbul for 2020. It's all interesting speculation.

I think Australia would have one one of 2000-2020 imo.

Very interesting speculation indeed.

For a Toronto 2024 bid if my proposal which is very realistic came into reality:

-Only one venue (Canoe slalom at 125 km in St. Catherines) (besides 3 football stadiums in Ottawa, Hamilton and Montreal) would be held outside of Toronto's core.

-Out of the 31 venues in the city only 5 are not in the downtown core. With the distances being: 28km for eventing equestrian, 27km for Tennis, and 25km for golf. The IOC's evaluation report for 2008 included venues only 20km away from athlete's village. THe other two are 13km for trap shooting, 10km for mountain biking.

-All venues in Toronto will be connected by subway/lrt by 2024 which is a bonus

All other venues are in the waterfront a 12km distance between each end.

Edited by intoronto1125
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