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U.S. Medal prospects, sport by sport, day by day

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Giving an in-depth outlook on the medal prospects for Americans in all 83 events, day by day, on what and who we could expect to see stand on the podium for the U.S.. I weigh our chances of success using past World Cup and World Championships results, length of time performing in the sport, injury concerns, and experience. To do this, I use the following assessment key:

VERY LOW-less than 20% chance of winning a medal, to non-existent chance

LOW between 20%-40% chance of winning a medal

MODERATE 40%-60% chance of winning a medal, basically a toss-up chance

HIGH 60%-80% chance of winning a medal

VERY HIGH greater than 80% of winning a medal


Saturday Feb 13 PREDICTION: 2 medals

Ski Jumping NH Individual Final-VERY LOW

Alpine Skiing Men's Final-MODERATE (Bode Miller is certainly capable, but always a big ? mark. Ligety has struggled)

Speedskating Men's 5000m-LOW (Best hope is Chad Hedrick, but Dutch and Italian Fabris are favored here)

Biathon Women's 7.5km Sprint-VERY LOW

Short Track Men's 1500m-MODERATE (Ohno is certainly a threat, Celski a ? mark. South Koreans could sweep however)

Women's Moguls-VERY HIGH (Canada's Jennifer Heil is the favorite, but the Americans send a deep team)

Sunday Feb 14 PREDICTION: 1 medal, 3 overall

Biathon Men's 10km Sprint-LOW (Tim Burke placed 2nd in a world cup event recently, giving the U.S. hope)

Alpine Skiing Women's Super Combined-MODERATE (Lindsey Vonn is the hope, though not likely gold here)

Speedskating Women's 5000m-VERY LOW (U.S. women are very weak, expect 0 medals in all speedskating events)

Nordic Combined Normal Hill-MODERATE (3 World Champs, Spillane, Demong and Lodwick could break through for U.S.)

Luge Men's Singles-VERY LOW

Men's Moguls-MODERATE (Patrick Deneen is World Champ but up against strong competition from Australia and Canada)

Monday Feb 15 PREDICTION: 1 medal, 4 overall

Cross Country Skiing Women's 10km Free-VERY LOW

Cross Country Skiing Men's 15km Free-VERY LOW

Snowboard Men's Snowboardcross-VERY HIGH (Very strong team that could possibly win multiple medals)

Figure Skating Pairs-VERY LOW

Speedskating Men's 500m-MODERATE (Tucker Federicks could land podium spot against powerful Korean team)

Tuesday Feb 16 PREDICTION: 2 medals, 6 overall

Biathon Women's 10km Pursuit-VERY LOW

Snowboard Women's Snowboardcross-VERY HIGH (Lindsey Jacobellis is certainly one of the favorites)

Biathlon Men's 12.5km Pursuit-VERY LOW

Alpine Skiing Men's Super Combined-MODERATE (Again Bode is capable as well as Ligety)

Luge Women's Singles-MODERATE (Hamlin is U.S. hope, recently having a couple 3rd place finishes in WC)

Speedskating Women's 500m-VERY LOW

Wednesday Feb 17 PREDICTION: 4 medals, 10 overall

Alpine Skiing Women's Downhill-HIGH (Vonn is the favorite but recent injury could keep her off podium top spot)

Cross Country Skiing Women's Sprint Classic-VERY LOW

Cross Country Skiing Men's Sprint Classic-VERY LOW

Speedskating Men's 1000m-VERY HIGH (unless Shani Davis falls, expect him on podium, if not on top. Heavy favorite)

Luge Doubles-LOW (Germans, Italians and Austrians are favorites but Americans could surprise)

Short Track Women's 500m-LOW (Chinese are simply too strong to break through and medal. Reutter is slim U.S. hope)

Snowboard Men's Halfpipe-VERY HIGH (Shawn White is back. Others could medal as well)

Thursday Feb 18 PREDICTION: 3 medals, 13 overall

Biathlon Women's 15km Individual-VERY LOW

Biathlon Men's 15km Individual-LOW (Tim Burke again, U.S. medal hopeful)

Speedskating Women's 1000m-VERY LOW

Figure Skating Men's-HIGH (In a wide open Men's field, Lysacek or Abbott should land a podium spot)

Snowboard Women's Halfpipe-VERY HIGH (Powerful U.S. squad could sweep podium)

Friday Feb 19 PREDICTION: 0 medals, 13 overall

Alpine Skiing Men's Super G-MODERATE (Miller is sole U.S. chance)

Cross Country Skiing Women's 15km Pursuit-VERY LOW

Skeleton Men's-VERY LOW

Skeleton Women's-LOW (Katie Uhlaender, best hope, has struggled since being injured)

Saturday Feb 20 PREDICTION: 3 medals, 16 overall

Alpine Skiing Women's Super G-HIGH (Again Vonn should contend but to what extent will recent injury affect her?)

Ski Jumping LH Individual-VERY LOW

Cross Country Skiing Men's 30km Pursuit-VERY LOW

Speedskating Men's 1500m-VERY HIGH (Shani Davis has lost this event only once last yr, to Chad Hedrick)

Short Track Women's 1500m-MODERATE (Katherine Reutter certainly has a chance)

Short Track Men's 1000m-MODERATE (Again, look for Ohno to be in the hunt, Celski, too, if healthy)

Sunday Feb 21 PREDICTION: 0 medals, 16 overall

Biathlon Men's 15km Mass Start-LOW (Again, watch for Burke)

Biathlon Women's 12.5km Mass Start-VERY LOW

Freestyle Skiing Men's Skicross-LOW (U.S. best hope, Rahlves, suffered recent injury. Canadians and French strong)

Alpine Skiing Men's Giant Slalom-MODERATE (Ted Ligety has posted good results recently on World Cup circuit)

Speedskating Women's 1500m-VERY LOW

Bobsled 2 Man-LOW (Swiss and Germans should dominate. U.S. hope Holcomb races, but is far stronger with 4-man)

Monday Feb 22 PREDICTION: 2 medals, 18 overall

Ski Jumping Team-VERY LOW

Cross Country Skiing Women's Team Sprint-VERY LOW

Cross Country Skiing Men's Team Sprint-VERY LOW

Figure Skating Ice Dance-VERY HIGH (Davis & White or Ben & Agosto could win, along with the Canadian duo)

Tuesday Feb 23 PREDICTION: 1 medal, 19 overall

Speedskating Men's 10000m-LOW (Shai Davis pulled out of this event, Dutch should dominate)

Biathlon Women's 4 x 6km Relay-VERY LOW

Nordic Combined Team-HIGH (This event represents the Americans best chance to end Nordic event futility)

Freestyle Skiing Women's Skicross-VERY LOW (U.S. didn't even field a team)

Wednesday Feb 24 PREDICTION: 1 medal, 20 overall

Cross Country Skiing Men's 4 x 10km Relay Classic/Free-VERY LOW

Speedskating Women's 5000m-VERY LOW

Alpine Skiing Women's Giant Slalom-LOW (Julia Mancuso won this in Torino; this is Vonn's weakest event)

Bobsled 2 Woman-MODERATE (Shauna Rohbock has performed well lately and remains a threat to medal)

Short Track Women's Relay-MODERATE (Expect U.S. to challenge Korea for bronze behind stong Chinese, Canadians)

Freestyle Skiing Women's Aerials-LOW (China simply too strong to likely challenge for podium spot)

Thursday Feb 25 PREDICTION: 2 medals, 22 overall

Cross Country Skiing Women's 4 x 5km Relay Classic/Free-VERY LOW

Nordic Combined Large Hill-MODERATE (Again any 1 of a trio of U.S. athletes could medal)

Hockey Women's-VERY HIGH (Anything less than silver will be a shocker)

Figure Skating Women's-LOW (U.S. likely not to medal for first time since 1964)

Freestyle Skiing Men's Aerials-MODERATE (Jeret Peterson and St. Onge have chances against strong Belarus, China)

Friday Feb 26 PREDICTION: 2 medals, 24 overall

Biathlon Men's 4 x 7.5km Relay-VERY LOW

Alpine Skiing Women's Slalom-LOW (Mancuso and Vonn have very slim chance, either would have to surprise)

Snowboard Women's PGS-VERY LOW

Curling Women's-VERY LOW

Short Track Men's 500m-MODERATE (Ohno won gold in Torino)

Short Track Women's 1000m-MODERATE (Reutter a possibility again)

Short Track Men's Relay-HIGH (U.S., Korea and Canada should land on podium in no particular order barring DQ's)

Saturday Feb 27 PREDICTION: 1 medal, 25 overall

Cross Country Skiing Women's 30km Classic Mass Start-VERY LOW

Speedskating Men's Team Pursuit-LOW (Davis not racing severely hampers U.S. medal chances)

Speedskating Women's Team Pursuit-LOW (If U.S. women have any chance at all, it's this event)

Snowboard Men's PGS-LOW (Tyler Jewell has small chance)

Alpine Skiing Men's Slalom-LOW (Ligety is best chance but has struggled recently)

Bobsled 4 Man-VERY HIGH (It should come down to U.S.'s Holcomb and Germany's Lange for gold)

Curling Men's-LOW (Don't expect U.S. to recapture Torino magic)

Sunday Feb 28 PREDICTION: 0 medals, 25 overall

Cross Country Skiing Men's 50km Classic Mass Start-VERY LOW

Hockey Men's-LOW (U.S. squad is too young to seriously contend for medal against Canada, Sweden, Finland, & Russia)


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Cross Country Skiing Women's 10km Free-VERY LOW

Cross Country Skiing Women's Sprint Classic-VERY LOW

Cross Country Skiing Women's Team Sprint-VERY LOW

Cross Country Skiing Women's 4 x 5km Relay Classic/Free-VERY LOW

Cross Country Skiing Women's 30km Classic Mass Start-VERY LOW

Ok.. I passed your predictions onto Kikkan Randall last night and she said you are in the penalty box! <_<

Seriously. That's what she said to tell you fineshot! :lol:

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Ok.. I passed your predictions onto Kikkan Randall last night and she said you are in the penalty box! <_<

Seriously. That's what she said to tell you fineshot! :lol:

I realize she won a silver medal at the previous World Championships. However she, nor any other American, has won a single medal recently in the FIS CC World Cup (which I weigh heavily into my decisions) Not since the 2007-2008 season has an American landed on the podium. So by in large, the medal she won was totally a surprise and a fluke, and I don't expect it to happen again in the Olympics. All the best to Kikkan, and the rest of American team, but the European countries, especially Norway, Russia and Sweden are dominant, and it will be near impossible for any American to surprise and win a medal.

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Fineshot, it's safe to say that a number of those low expectations have been exceeded.

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