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Medal Predictions

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NOC Gold Silver Bronze Total

Canada 11 12 11 34

Norway 8 9 8 25

USA 8 8 9 25

Russia 8 8 8 24

Germany 7 12 10 29

Austria 6 9 5 20

Edited by Faster

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The top medal producing countries will be as follows...

Country Gold/Silver/Bronze/Total

Germany 14/11/12/37

Canada 14/9/12/35

U.S. 10/8/10/28

Russia 8/9/7/24

Norway 8/7/9/24

China 7/4/4/15

South Korea 6/3/4/12

Austria 5/10/4/19

Italy 4/7/5/16

Switzerland 4/6/5/15

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The top medal producing countries will be as follows...

Country Gold/Silver/Bronze/Total

Germany 14/11/12/37

Canada 14/9/12/35

U.S. 10/8/10/28

Russia 8/9/7/24

Norway 8/7/9/24

China 7/4/4/15

South Korea 6/3/4/12

Austria 5/10/4/19

Italy 4/7/5/16

Switzerland 4/6/5/15

Germany is weaker today then it was 4 years ago, they aren't going to improve by 8 medals. Norway is dominating men's biathlon, Greis and the other Germans stand little chance and women's biathlon is the most competitive ever, Germany won 11 biathlon medals last time when Norway imploded, 6 is probably the best they will do now. Cross country skiing is a Norwegian/Russian affair again and Germany has only 2 maybe 3 potential medals. The Swiss, Americans and Canadians on the home track are going to take bobsleigh medals and it is unrealistic to think that Germany will win 2 medals in women's skeleton and Erin Hamelin will win a luge medal. Germany can only expect one medal in men's luge, if at all and the Italians and Austrians have been strong all world cup long in doubles, and you can't count out the Americans. The only improvement over last time is now there is two legitimate multi-medalist in women's Alpine Skiing. Then you have the weakest speed skating team in memory, with no chances on the men's side and maybe 3 or 4 medals on the women's side. Plus no medal possibilities in freestyle skiing (18 medals), snowboarding (18 medals), hockey (6 medals), curling (6 medals), short tack speed skating (24 medals) and Germany should be happy with maintaining the high 20's. The world cup medal table gives a disproportionate importance to sports Germany excels at. At the end of the 2008-09 world cup season, Germany and Canada were within 10 medals, even with this disproportionate weighting. And Canada lead the world championship medal table with 29 medals, after disappointing world championships in speed skating, short track bobsleigh and skeleton.

Also 36 is the record medal total, I don't think anyone is going to break that anytime soon, especially as it gets more crowded at the top. Plus 13 is the record gold medal total, this is not going to be matched.

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The nice (and sometimes awful) thing about sports is that it's incalculable and unpredictable. No one expected Norway to implode before Torino 2006, and no one expected Sweden to be so strong. In 2002, we had an absolutely surprising Australian gold medal winner in short track.

I only have a mere intuition how the Top 10 could look like:

1. Norway

2. Canada

3. Germany

4. Russia

5. USA

6. Austria

7. Sweden

8. Switzerland

9. South Korea

10. China

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To CAF, Goethe and Olympian2004: I don't mean to offend you with my analysis on Germany's chances. I have just watched the world cups and world championships over the last 4 years and things are not looking good. I don't mean to be harsh but sometimes it comes off as such.

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If Britain get two medals I will be delighted. I have an optimistic feeling we might just get 3.

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Britain

1 Silver and 1 Bronze

Curling

Team Great Britain - Silver

Skeleton

Shelley Rudman - Bronze

the 3rd medal would be Kristan Bromley in men's skeleton

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Faster some good predictions. The Curling will be the Men's Team, but we have chances in both. We might just sneak a Short Track Medal, Kristan might get a skeleton medal, Zoe Gillings is 5th in the world in SnowboardX - so you never know, and don't forget our World Championship Winning Bobsleigh Girls! That's not even counting the Kerr Siblings in the Ice Dance (although for them Top 5 would be a big achievement I think).

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I think people are overplaying the parity on the women's side of curling. Its between Canada, China, Sweden and Switzerland.

The top five women in SBX are:

Maelle Ricker - Canada

Helene Olafsen - Norway

Dominique Maltais - Canada

Alexandra Jekova - Bulgaria

Mellie Francon - Switzerland

Zoe Gillings is 11th. I think that event is between the Canadians, Olafsen and Jacobellis.

As for bobsleigh, they haven't medaled this season, so it would be a huge surprise for them to medal. I think that event will be a Canadian sandwich with German bread.

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What about the Netherlands?

How many medals will they winn?

Netherlands, as expected, will be a force in Speedskating, especially the men's side at the longer distances. They should win gold at the 5000m, 10000m and team pursuit events. The women have an outside chance at a gold medal, but the Canadians are powerful and should dominate. Still, Netherlands will rival Canada for the most speedskating medals. I see 3 gold, 2 silvers and 4 bronzes for a total of 9 medals.

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Netherlands, as expected, will be a force in Speedskating, especially the men's side at the longer distances. They should win gold at the 5000m, 10000m and team pursuit events. The women have an outside chance at a gold medal, but the Canadians are powerful and should dominate. Still, Netherlands will rival Canada for the most speedskating medals. I see 3 gold, 2 silvers and 4 bronzes for a total of 9 medals.

Thanks.

And maybe Nicolien Sauerbreij can win a medal on the parallel Giant slalom in snowboarding.. last year she won the world cup.

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To CAF, Goethe and Olympian2004: I don't mean to offend you with my analysis on Germany's chances. I have just watched the world cups and world championships over the last 4 years and things are not looking good. I don't mean to be harsh but sometimes it comes off as such.

Don't worry -- I didn't take your prediction as an offence at all. And why should I do so? As you can see in my own ranking, I'm not too optimistic about Germany's medal chances either (at least I don't think that they'll rank 1st or even 2nd again).

But I only wanted to say that medal predictions are just a game and have not extremely much in common with the real results. In this regard, I'm thinking about the Sports Illustrated medal prediction for Beijing -- in Germany's case alone, SI predicted 48 instead of the real 41 medals and it only predicted 14 instead of the real 16 gold medals. Furthermore, only six of its 48 medal picks were correct, 25 were completely wrong and 17 were partially wrong. And I suppose that they base their prediction on world cup and world championships results, too.

Here's the link to my evaluation of SI's medal picks from 2008: http://www.gamesbids.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=11574&view=findpost&p=183978

So, all in all admire that you did so much work to calculate a mathematic model for predicting the medals -- but I think that your prediction won't be extremely correct as well.

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I dont care, how many medal the German teams wins. I am hoping only for Magdalena Neuner, Leitner/Resch, Friesinger-Postma and Edelmann or Kircheisen to win a medal. I dont like Riesch or the Figure Skaters.

I agree with Faster, the team is weaker. But it has also few pluses on its side: The Skeleton team is able to medal for the very first time. Diana Sartor came twice 4th in 2002 and 2006. In fact, if everything works in favour of them, the team could win all gold medals in skeleton, luge and bobsleigh. The gold medal in Mens Skeleton would be the biggest surprise though.

Also the Alpine Skiing has one or two medals prospects.

Honestly, as long as Canada does NOT top the medals table, everything is fine for me.

Edited by Goethe

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I dont care, how many medal the German teams wins. I am hoping only for Magdalena Neuner, Leitner/Resch, Friesinger-Postma and Edelmann or Kircheisen to win a medal. I dont like Riesch or the Figure Skaters.

Honestly, as long as Canada does NOT top the medals table, everything is fine for me.

You're really always up for surprising statements. Why don't you like Maria Riesch? I personally find her pretty likeable actually -- and I'd be glad if she won an Olympic medal, making up for her not being able to attend the Torino 2006 Games. And I don't have a problem with Savchenko and Szolkowy either.

And why don't you wish Canada topping the medal table?

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You're really always up for surprising statements.

Thats what I am here for!

Why don't you like Maria Riesch? I personally find her pretty likeable actually -- and I'd be glad if she won an Olympic medal, making up for her not being able to attend the Torino 2006 Games. And I don't have a problem with Savchenko and Szolkowy either.

Firstly, I like Lindsay Vonn a lot more. She looks great and her German is so cute. Riesch is always in a good mood when she wins. But when she finishes far behind she is some kind of a sour loser in my eyes. No, I prefer Vonn.

I have to confess that I am not a real fan of Figure Skating. I surly wont watch the competitions as they are at nights (our time). Ingo Steuer is my problem. He has lied about his Stasi-Past and in my eyes he should not train any athletes.

And why don't you wish Canada topping the medal table?

Hmmm, thats difficult to explain. Maybe I see Canada simply too negative. Sometimes I think Canada is a needless state. Give the French speaking people their independence and give the rest to the USA!

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Hmmm, thats difficult to explain. Maybe I see Canada simply too negative. Sometimes I think Canada is a needless state. Give the French speaking people their independence and give the rest to the USA!

:huh:

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Hmmm, thats difficult to explain. Maybe I see Canada simply too negative. Sometimes I think Canada is a needless state. Give the French speaking people their independence and give the rest to the USA!

Now that is really surprising. I for my part was always glad that the USA (although I actually like the USA) had a more laid-back and less controversial neighbour in the north. Furthermore, although it has many cultural and historical bonds with the USA, Canada has a strong identity of its own. And why shouldn't one give Quebec to the French then, too -- if you already want to give the English-speaking rest of Canada to the USA?

So you also weren't too much of a fan of these Olympic Winter Games being given to Canada, were you?

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Hmmm, thats difficult to explain. Maybe I see Canada simply too negative. Sometimes I think Canada is a needless state. Give the French speaking people their independence and give the rest to the USA!

I guess we should also give New Zealand to Australia, Austria to Germany, half of Belgium to France and the other half to the Netherlands, split Switzerland between France, Italy and Germany, give (the Republic of) Ireland to the UK and so on.

By the way, Quebecers voted on independence twice. Didn't happen. Good thing for us French-Canadians that aren't Quebecers, too...

Sorry, its just that the subject is sensitive to me (especially when people use Quebecer and French-Canadians interchangeably).

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States are always a result of historical events, coincidences, circumstance etc. etc. - wasn't Canada formed as federal state, since not all british colonies wanted to become independent from the United Kingdom resp. due the British-American War 1812-15?

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I don't even know where to began on how insulting what you said is Goethe. We fought a war with the USA over them trying to fulfill their, 'manifest destiny'. We formed our nation and laid its foundations on not becoming apart of the US. We are culturally and ethnically distinct from them in many ways, as is our national consciousness and values. I am sorry you are too ignorant to see the differences.

CAF:

During the American Revolution, the Americans tried to get Nova Scotia and Quebec (at that time they represented much of what was the 5 eastern provinces), then in 1775 the Americans invaded the Province of Quebec but were repelled by combined French Militia and British forces (and Native warriors), it resulted in territory loses (up state New York, parts of Pennsylvania, Virginia, NC, Kentucky, Illionis, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Indiana) but the French remained loyal to their own colony and refused to join the Americans. Then in 1812 the Americans, taking advantage of the Napoleonic Wars, invaded Upper and Lower Canada but were repelled again by a combined French/Loyalist Militia and a small force of British regulars. After the war ended in 1814, the discussion became about forming a country. Then the American Civil War happened and this really accelerated the process and in 1867, Upper and Lower Canada (Ontario and Quebec), Nova Scotia and New Brunswick signed the articles of Confederation and Queen Victoria ascended them and we became an 'independent' dominion. Our territory grew from then with the additions of British Columbia and Prince Edward Island, then the purchase of Rupert's Land which became Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Northern Ontario, Northern Quebec, Nunavut, Northwest Territories and Yukon. And finally, during WWII Canada invaded and occupied Newfoundland and in 1949 they became the 10th province.

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I suspect you're either superficially informed (your fault in the information age) Goethe, or just don't understand the difference between a people, a nation, a country and a state.

Canada is several of these things; Canada also contains many nations. Our history and people come from four general traditions: Aboriginal persons, New France, British North America, and post-confederation migration from around the world.

Because we don't fall into any tidy ethnic notion of who is Canadian, it's easy for outsiders to miss that this is the entire point of Canada. Canada today is about how all sorts of people live together, sharing commonalities, celebrating differences, and ensuring one another's welfare. We, in my opinion, take the best aspects of American market capitalism and the European social welfare model.

It doesn't make for great TV, but it does make for a wonderful place to visit. Or live. But I'd guess you wouldn't get through the screening process as a skilled migrant--Canada's too selective.

:lol:

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Because we don't fall into any tidy ethnic notion of who is Canadian, it's easy for outsiders to miss that this is the entire point of Canada. Canada today is about how all sorts of people live together, sharing commonalities, celebrating differences, and ensuring one another's welfare. We, in my opinion, take the best aspects of American market capitalism and the European social welfare model.

It doesn't make for great TV, but it does make for a wonderful place to visit. Or li

That's exactly what makes Canada being my favourite country in the world ! Greetings from Germany, and good luck for the games ... hope to see your nation on top of the medal table this time :)

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I knew I am starting a controversy with my comment. I knew not everybody agrees with me. Although I like some controversy, it was never my intention to insult you. I just have to keep in mind that not everybody is so unpatriotic like me. One of the most important sports events in Canadian history is due to begin and many you are proud to experience these Games in your nation. I am sorry.

Please accept my apology.

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Thank you very much--I appreciate this. Any other time I'd be happy to discuss this sort of issue...but do let us Canuckleheads enjoy the next 8 weeks. We can debate this stuff later if you like. :)

I knew I am starting a controversy with my comment. I knew not everybody agrees with me. Although I like some controversy, it was never my intention to insult you. I just have to keep in mind that not everybody is so unpatriotic like me. One of the most important sports events in Canadian history is due to begin and many you are proud to experience these Games in your nation. I am sorry.

Please accept my apology.

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