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Rome braces for 'prophet-predicted quake'

Thousands of people are reported to be staying out of Rome for the next few days, over fears the city will be hit by a huge earthquake.

The panic was sparked by rumours that seismologist Raffaele Bendandi, who died in 1979, predicted the city would be devastated by a quake on 11 May.

Officials have insisted quakes cannot be predicted and special programmes have run on state TV calling for calm.

But many people said they were leaving the city to be on the safe side.

There are reports of an 18% increase in the number of city employees planning to stay away from work.

"I'm going to tell the boss I've got a medical appointment and take the day off," barman Fabio Mengarelli told Reuters.

"If I have to die, I want to die with my wife and kids, and masses of people will do the same as me."

Another Roman, Tania Cotorobai, told Reuters she planned to spend Wednesday in the countryside.

"I don't know if I really believe it but if you look at the internet you see everything and the opposite of everything, and it ends up making you nervous."

Other people were more sceptical, or said they would make the most of the capital being slightly quieter.

"It's all just stupid - but anyway if it does happen it would be a good thing, tidy things up a bit," said Augusto Costa.

While Franceso Verselli said that Rome would be spared because it was home to the Pope: "Wherever the Pope is, nothing will happen."

The rumours have been circulating on the streets and online for months that the Eternal City is facing imminent destruction.

They were based on work by Bendandi, who was knighted by Mussolini in 1927 for his prophetic meteorological skill.

He was said to have used his theory that the movement of the planets caused seismic activity to accurately predict a 1923 quake that killed 1,000 people.

Before he died, he pinpointed 11 May 2011 as the day Rome would be totally destroyed - to be followed by two more catastrophic events in May 2012.

Italian concerns have been heightened after the deadly quake in Aquila in 2009, and reports that scientists Giampaolo Giuliani had been trying to warn officials in the days before.

But the president of the Osservatorio Geofisico Comunale, the foundation that honours Bendandi, said they had no record of the much-discussed prediction and have dismissed it as an urban myth.

"I can say with absolute certainly that in the papers of Raffaele Bendandi there is no provision for an earthquake in Rome on the 11 May 2011," Paola Lagorio told Abruzzo in March.

"The date is not there, nor is the place."

Tommaso Profeta, head of Rome's civil protection services, told La Repubblica he had received a lot of calls from concerned Rome residents but that there was no danger.

"That said, our plan is to be prepared for natural disaster."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13354988

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Before he died, he pinpointed 11 May 2011 as the day Rome would be totally destroyed - to be followed by two more catastrophic events in May 2012.

Two catastrophic events to destroy an already destroyed Rome? :blink:

Tommaso Profeta, head of Rome's civil protection services, told La Repubblica he had received a lot of calls from concerned Rome residents but that there was no danger.

And here we have Thomas Prophet talking about prophecies... A really appropriate name! :rolleyes:

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You know.. there's another prophecy, way much older then those of Mr. Bendandi, which says "If Rome falls, then the world will follow". You'd better hope it stays safe and happy then. ;);)

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If Rome wins its bid for the 2020 Olympics, I strongly believe South Africa will go for the 2022 Commonwealth Games. Which leaves Toronto as the favourite for 2024 (assuming Munich and Pyeonchang win the next two winter Olympics and Lake Placid win the 2020 Youth Olympics)

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1. If Rome wins its bid for the 2020 Olympics, I strongly believe South Africa will go for the 2022 Commonwealth Games.

2. Which leaves Toronto as the favourite for 2024 (assuming Munich and Pyeonchang win the next two winter Olympics and Lake Placid win the 2020 Youth Olympics)

1. IF Rome wins...and what makes you think RSA won't go for the 2024 SOG? :blink:

2. Toronto ain't gonna happen for 2024.

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@Baron do you think South Africa can win on its first shot? What other cities are left then? Rome looks to be the favourite. That is 14 years after Turin, same with Toronto in 2024. And I don't think South Africa will go for 2024 if they win the 2022 CWG, and if they do Toronto if they bid would start as favourites (think of Rio 2 years after Pan Ams won their bid, Toronto would be in the same situation). All of this of course depends on many ifs.

What do you think of a Toronto bid?

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1. @Baron do you think South Africa can win on its first shot?

2. What do you think of a Toronto bid?

1. It wouldn't be the 1st time it's happened: Athens, Paris, St. Louis, Stockholm, Melbourne, Seoul, Sydney and Atlanta--not to mention a whole sleugh of winter cities -- all won on their first tries. Why shouldn't Durban? The country hosted a successful World Cup, didn't it?

Of the 2020 hopefuls, it will get a 1st hand, close-up look from the entire IOC membership when they gather there in 2 months. Where do you think that will lead?

2. Everything being equal, why should Canada get another Summer Games before the U.S.?

BTW, I'm done with the other thread. I won't reply to you there.

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What do you think of a Toronto bid?

Between Rio and the next America's win, we need at least 1 Euro games and 1 Asia games. Further, it's unlikely the IOC will make Africa wait a full cycle of Asia, Europe, Americas - so the third spot goes to South Africa and the America's has to wait till 2032. That's Toronto's golden year.

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Altho it will be Durban's FIRST toss of its hat.

Well, Durban participated in the Domestic Competition in the mid-90s, when the Applicant City from SA for 2004 was chosen. So, strictly speaking, not Durban's first shot either.

(But, the OP was specifically saying "think South Africa can win on its first shot?", and we all know it's not SAs first shot.)

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Well, Durban participated in the Domestic Competition in the mid-90s, when the Applicant City from SA for 2004 was chosen. So, strictly speaking, not Durban's first shot either.

Well, domestic competition in my book doesn't really count. (Who cares if Gdansk, Minneapolis or some backwater Chinese city throw their hats in? I don't.) You don't become an Official Candidate until you are put forward by your NOC...short list or not.

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@baron valid points. Consider the fact Rio is struggling with the World Cup, and possibly the Olympics and the second straight games in the Southern Hemisphere looks to be points against South Africa.

I do however want South Africa to win. As for Toronto, by 2024 it will be almost 50 years since the Summer games were in Canada. The USA it would be 28 years about half of Canada's wait.

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Black-&-white mentality though. Simply because Canada would have waited longer than the U.S. for a Summer Olympics doesn't necessarily dictate that Canada is due for one first. If that were the case, Paris would've won 2012 over London, since France last hosted the Summer Olympics in 1924, whereas the U.K. last hosted in 1948, 24 years sooner than France.

The United States has almost 10x's the population than Canada, is much better at the Summer Olympics than Canada & has more influence (i.e. geopolitics). Canada is better at the Winter Olympics (which as you were so quick to point out with the ice hockey) & they just hosted a Winter Olympics last year.

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@baron valid points. Consider the fact Rio is struggling with the World Cup, and possibly the Olympics and the second straight games in the Southern Hemisphere looks to be points against South Africa.

Invalid point. If Rio struggles with WC prep, that has nothing to do with SA. South Africa has just proven itself with one of the most successful World Cups yet.

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The United States has almost 10x's the population than Canada, is much better at the Summer Olympics than Canada & has more influence (i.e. geopolitics).

Since it is probable that the US will go for (and win) a WOG in 2022 or 2026, the likelihood of a SOG goes down. In addition, the US only gets a SOG when the IOC needs money. Hosting in Canada provides access to US audiences and money, without having to actually reward the US with a games.

I stick with my prediction of the past two years: No US SOG will happen before the '40s.

2020 remains interesting to me. I really think more and more that it is becoming a two-horse race, Durban and Rome. The stars now seem to be aligning for Rome. There is no clear competitive European bid, which may give them the very strong Euro voting bloc in its entirety, the timing for a return to Europe clearly favors 2020 or 2024, and South Africa is taking its sweet time to get energized.

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2020 remains interesting to me. I really think more and more that it is becoming a two-horse race, Durban and Rome. The stars now seem to be aligning for Rome. There is no clear competitive European bid, which may give them the very strong Euro voting bloc in its entirety, the timing for a return to Europe clearly favors 2020 or 2024, and South Africa is taking its sweet time to get energized.

I think we're forgetting just how early it is at the moment. Letters to NOCs haven't even been sent yet.

Just as comparison, London's bid was officially agreed upon by the UK government on 15th May 2003 (decision day being 6th July 2005). In other words, at this stage in the 2012 process, the eventual winner wasn't even sure it was going to enter the race. So it's a little harsh to put Durban down because they haven't "got energised" yet. :P

Durban will officially enter after the IOC session if Dysan's posts are correct, which is pretty much the same time as London's bid started, plus they have the obvious advantage of showing off their city to the IOC membership before the bid is launched. They're playing it fine so far; there's no point peaking too early.

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Yeah, I agree. Durban's doing fine. It's name's bubbling over, anyone who watches bids is anticipating it. It'd be bombshell olympic news if they don't. If there's any procedural issues to iron out, Rogge and co will be on hand to help sort through them at the session. And as for the session, after the 2018 decision itself, the possibility and chances of a Durban bid will be the main topic preoccupying most of the media questions and interest, and probably a lot of the conversations amongst the IOCers. It's such a dream launchpad.

Now, how the Roma bid team and Italian IOCers operate in Durban is going to be interesting.

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Since it is probable that the US will go for (and win) a WOG in 2022 or 2026, the likelihood of a SOG goes down. In addition, the US only gets a SOG when the IOC needs money. Hosting in Canada provides access to US audiences and money, without having to actually reward the US with a games.

Well, first we have to see if the U.S. bids for 2022 or 2026. And second, then see if it wins.

And I certainly don't contest that the IOC mainly comes to the U.S. when they need money & that going to Canada would provide access to U.S. audiences & money without giving the U.S. a Games.

But frankly, that's the only advantage I see in the IOC going to Canada over the U.S. considering all the tangibles involved. And I don't believe that component alone would be incentive enough to do so.

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