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How Many Medals Will Canada Win?


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WE ARE NOT THE ONLY COUNTRY TO HOST THE GAMES AND NOT WIN A GOLD MEDAL: YUGOSLAVIA WON ONE SILVER MEDAL ONLY IN SARAJEVO IN 1984. BOSNIA HAS NEVER WON A WINTER MEDAL AND ONLY CROATIA HAVE WON GOLD MEDALS AND THAT WAS IN 2002

repeat offender.

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The first time St Moritz hosted the OWG they didn't win gold; they did the second time though.

Yugoslavia and Canada are the only two; Canada is the only remaining existing country and the only to do it twice. But with so many more medal events, I'd be stunned if we did it a 3rd time.

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I think some of the critique is that Canadians has not won gold in both the summer and winter Olympics. Of course, 1976 had the Eastern European countries doping up. Funny, if the countries like East Germany were stripped, there would be a few golds for Canada I imagine. Plus, Canada did win gold in Calgary, but as curling was a demonstration sport, it doesn't count <_<<_<

If all the East Germans would get disqualified, we would have a medal sweep in one of the women's Backstroke events.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Well, this was a weird world cup race in Lac Louise. John Kucera broke his leg and is out for the season, yet Canada places 3 in the top 5 and gets the win whit Osborne-Paradis.

Still, Kucera is quite the loss...

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Kristina Groves is the new Cindy. Or Christine Nesbitt, depending on which side of the 1500 you slice it. Either could win 3 medals easily; Groves I think has a good shot at 4 (1500, 1000, 3000 and pursuit)

She has been injured for the last year and is just getting back on the ice.
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I still wouldn't discount Klassen, though 5 medals is out of the question (she is only competing in 3 events)

Canada has Nesbitt, Groves, Hughes and Klassen that could combine for between 6 and 8 medals but could go as high as 9 or 10 depending on if a 500m medal can be won.

Based on the results so far.

Alpine Skiing

- even with Kucera now injured the results of Osbourne-Paradis, Emily Brydon and Erik Gauy make me think that 1 or 2 medals in Alpine Skiing is probable.

Biathlon

- highly doubt a medal unless something spectacular happens, so nothing to report

Bobsleigh

- this season has marked the addition of another capable pilot onto the Canadian seen, Rush has a victory and a bronze in the 4 man. Lueders has struggled in the 2-man but he will perform when it matters, hopefully. The Canadian women now also have two teams in the top 6 in the world so either could medal. 2 to 3 medals is probably what is going to happen for Canada.

Cross Country Skiing

- Sara Reiner is probably the best hope for a medal and her and Chandra Crawford will contend on the women's side. Devon Kershaw and some of the men have an outside chance at medals.

Curling

- Not much has changed, Canada is still expected to get two golds, hopefully this happens but 2 medals is important. None of the players have moved up or down in my opinion. It will be between Canada, China and Sweden with Denmark and Switzerland on the outside. On the men's, Canada, Norway and Great Britain are the teams to beat with China and Switzerland on the outside.

Figure Skating

- I have downgraded my view. Virtue and Moir will medal, probably silver, the French pair are too strong. Rochette has to improve, for her to medal now, in my opinion, she needs personal bests in the short and long. I do not think Chen will not medal now, probably top 6 but not medal. And our pairs are not strong enough to get by the Chinese and Germans

Freestyle Skiing

- Nothing has changed because the WC hasn't started. But 6 medals is very likely, the only event I do not see a medal is women's Aerials. I think 1 in women's moguls, 2 in men's moguls, 2 in men's aerials, 1 in each ski cross. So I think 7 of 18 medals are staying in Canada.

Hockey

- Nothing has changed, 2 medals, 2 gold is what is wanted and expected. I think 2 medals but not necessarily 2 gold.

Luge

- I am still not expecting much. But the results so far seem to show a progression and it is possible that things will come together in Whistler to produce a medal for Sam Edney or Alex Gough.

Nordic Combined

- Hahahahahaha - next

Short Track Speed Skating

- 6 to 8 medals is what I think is going to happen. I think Charles Hamelin will be the star of these games with 4 medals, plus 2 on on the women's side. Plus Francois Louis-Trembley. I think 2 in 500m, 1 in 1000m, 1 in 1500m on the men's plus relay and then 1 in 500m and relay on the women's side. Plus there might be surprise results by some of the newer team members.

Skeleton

- The men have finally gotten things together with a gold-bronze performance. Montgomery, Pain and Hollingsworth are all in serious contention for medals in February and Amy Gough is also a possible threat.

Snowboarding

- The women are strong in the cross event, with a double medal performance in Argentina and Jasey-Jay Anderson should finally be able get over the Olympic hump.

Speed Skating

- Denny Morrison should put in a 3 medal performance in front of the home crowd and hopefully Wortherspoon gets to put Olympic demons behind him and get that gold medal in the 500m. The women have been dominate, though they need to improve in the 3000m and 5000m. 6 medals on that side is probably the minimum but as high as 8 is possible.

Alpine Skiing - 1

Bobsleigh - 2

Cross Country Skiing - 1

Curling - 2

Figure Skating - 1

Freestyle Skiing - 6

Ice Hockey - 2

Luge - 1

Shot Track - 6

Skeleton - 2

Snowboarding - 2

Speed Skating - 9

So 35 medals right on, so far. I am sure I will change.

Edited by Faster
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Some very interesting predicitons. If I may comment on a few...

Biathlon: agreed that miracle would be required.

Alpine: 2 or 3 is my guess...2 speed one technical (perhaps super combined for the men, if Osborne Paradis enters)

Cross country: I suspect a relay medal is the only hope, since the individual spring is classic this time around.

Figure skating: which French pair? Delobel & Schoenfeld are out. I think Virtue/Moir have a GREAT shot at gold. Chan is doubtful; Rochette will be 2nd...or 4th, although no one on the women's side has been consistently strong this season.

Freestyle skiing: I hope there's a women's aerials medal...it's the only freestyle tickets I got :)

short track: I think the women will get 3-4 (500, 1000, relay, perhaps another in the 500 or 1500) and the men will get 5-7 (2 in 500; 1 each in 1000, 1500 and relay, perhaps a couple of extra)

skeleton: 3 or 4. :)

speed skating: I totally agree. I suspect Clara Hughes might suprise some folks with 2 gold and a silver or bronze (5000m and relay, plus 3000m). I also suspect several Canucks will push colleagues into 4th :(

I still wouldn't discount Klassen, though 5 medals is out of the question (she is only competing in 3 events)

Canada has Nesbitt, Groves, Hughes and Klassen that could combine for between 6 and 8 medals but could go as high as 9 or 10 depending on if a 500m medal can be won.

Based on the results so far.

Alpine Skiing

- even with Kucera now injured the results of Osbourne-Paradis, Emily Brydon and Erik Gauy make me think that 1 or 2 medals in Alpine Skiing is probable.

Biathlon

- highly doubt a medal unless something spectacular happens, so nothing to report

Bobsleigh

- this season has marked the addition of another capable pilot onto the Canadian seen, Rush has a victory and a bronze in the 4 man. Lueders has struggled in the 2-man but he will perform when it matters, hopefully. The Canadian women now also have two teams in the top 6 in the world so either could medal. 2 to 3 medals is probably what is going to happen for Canada.

Cross Country Skiing

- Sara Reiner is probably the best hope for a medal and her and Chandra Crawford will contend on the women's side. Devon Kershaw and some of the men have an outside chance at medals.

Curling

- Not much has changed, Canada is still expected to get two golds, hopefully this happens but 2 medals is important. None of the players have moved up or down in my opinion. It will be between Canada, China and Sweden with Denmark and Switzerland on the outside. On the men's, Canada, Norway and Great Britain are the teams to beat with China and Switzerland on the outside.

Figure Skating

- I have downgraded my view. Virtue and Moir will medal, probably silver, the French pair are too strong. Rochette has to improve, for her to medal now, in my opinion, she needs personal bests in the short and long. I do not think Chen will not medal now, probably top 6 but not medal. And our pairs are not strong enough to get by the Chinese and Germans

Freestyle Skiing

- Nothing has changed because the WC hasn't started. But 6 medals is very likely, the only event I do not see a medal is women's Aerials. I think 1 in women's moguls, 2 in men's moguls, 2 in men's aerials, 1 in each ski cross. So I think 7 of 18 medals are staying in Canada.

Hockey

- Nothing has changed, 2 medals, 2 gold is what is wanted and expected. I think 2 medals but not necessarily 2 gold.

Luge

- I am still not expecting much. But the results so far seem to show a progression and it is possible that things will come together in Whistler to produce a medal for Sam Edney or Alex Gough.

Nordic Combined

- Hahahahahaha - next

Short Track Speed Skating

- 6 to 8 medals is what I think is going to happen. I think Charles Hamelin will be the star of these games with 4 medals, plus 2 on on the women's side. Plus Francois Louis-Trembley. I think 2 in 500m, 1 in 1000m, 1 in 1500m on the men's plus relay and then 1 in 500m and relay on the women's side. Plus there might be surprise results by some of the newer team members.

Skeleton

- The men have finally gotten things together with a gold-bronze performance. Montgomery, Pain and Hollingsworth are all in serious contention for medals in February and Amy Gough is also a possible threat.

Snowboarding

- The women are strong in the cross event, with a double medal performance in Argentina and Jasey-Jay Anderson should finally be able get over the Olympic hump.

Speed Skating

- Denny Morrison should put in a 3 medal performance in front of the home crowd and hopefully Wortherspoon gets to put Olympic demons behind him and get that gold medal in the 500m. The women have been dominate, though they need to improve in the 3000m and 5000m. 6 medals on that side is probably the minimum but as high as 8 is possible.

Alpine Skiing - 1

Bobsleigh - 2

Cross Country Skiing - 1

Curling - 2

Figure Skating - 1

Freestyle Skiing - 6

Ice Hockey - 2

Luge - 1

Shot Track - 6

Skeleton - 2

Snowboarding - 2

Speed Skating - 9

So 35 medals right on, so far. I am sure I will change.

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Some very interesting predicitons. If I may comment on a few...

Biathlon: agreed that miracle would be required.

Alpine: 2 or 3 is my guess...2 speed one technical (perhaps super combined for the men, if Osborne Paradis enters)

Cross country: I suspect a relay medal is the only hope, since the individual spring is classic this time around.

Figure skating: which French pair? Delobel & Schoenfeld are out. I think Virtue/Moir have a GREAT shot at gold. Chan is doubtful; Rochette will be 2nd...or 4th, although no one on the women's side has been consistently strong this season.

Freestyle skiing: I hope there's a women's aerials medal...it's the only freestyle tickets I got :)

short track: I think the women will get 3-4 (500, 1000, relay, perhaps another in the 500 or 1500) and the men will get 5-7 (2 in 500; 1 each in 1000, 1500 and relay, perhaps a couple of extra)

skeleton: 3 or 4. :)

speed skating: I totally agree. I suspect Clara Hughes might suprise some folks with 2 gold and a silver or bronze (5000m and relay, plus 3000m). I also suspect several Canucks will push colleagues into 4th :(

The Canadian alpine team is not consistent enough to win multiple medals and the Swiss seem to be on something, as our the Germans after 12 years in the wilderness. Canada will be happy and thankful for 1 medal, especially with our only men's world champion out of action.

Classical is a strength for Reiner, and if Crawford can get back to form (which she appears to be doing) she has a chance at the 10km event. We will see, there is still some more world cup races in store, we will see.

Delobel & Schoenfeld have been training and they should be in Vancouver, I have heard nothing to indicate they will not be one of the teams representing France. The latest update is that they have full programs created and will be in the European Championships in January.

The Canadian men are strong and could win 5 to 7 medals if Hamelin, Hamelin, Oliver Jean and Francois Louis Trembley skate well, which by there current standard they will. The Korean championships were full of problems and they will not be necessarily sending their best team. Kalyna Roberge is very hot and cold. She could win 4 medals her self or not make a single final and Jessica Gregg is very streaky. Marianne St. Gelais has been strong at the junior level but it is not clear if she will make the jump successfully in Vancouver. Tania Vicent would be a medal threat if they decided to include the 3000m but its not. Canada's short track performances have been up and down. 6 medals is probably the best result. The competition will be a lot more even between the Koreans, Canadians, Americans, Chinese and Japanese.

Though if I had to pick:

Men's

1 - 500m

2 - 1000m

1 - 1500m

1 - 5000m Relay

Women's

1 - 500m

1 - 1000m

1 - 3000m Relay

I don't think we can expect more then this. Is there a chance we can push as high as 10 but I doubt it.

Canada only has one consistent performer in skeleton. Melissa Hollingsworth, Pain and Montgomery are talented and will threaten for medals. 2 medals I would be comfortable predicting, 3 at most. 4 is out of the question.

Edited by Faster
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Well the Canadian Olympic Curling Trials are under way the current men's standings:

Ontario - Glenn Howard - 5 0 (world champion)

Alberta - Kevin Martin - 4 1 (world champion and Olympic silver medalist)

Manitoba - Jeff Stoughton - 3 2 (world champion)

Alberta - Kevin Koe - 3 2

Alberta - Randy Ferbey 3 2 (world champion)

Ontario - Wayne Middaugh 1 4 (world champion, not as skip)

Saskatchewan - Pat Simmons 1 4

Manitoba - Jason Gunnlaugson 0 5

(3 world champions and 1 Olympic champion were eliminated in the preliminary round)

Women's

Alberta - Cheryl Bernard 5 0

Ontario - Krista McCarville 3 2

Saskatchewan - Stefanie Lawton 3 2

Alberta - Shannon Kleibrink 3 2 (Olympic bronze medalist)

Saskatchewan - Amber Holland 2 3

Manitoba - Jennifer Jones 2 3 (World Champion)

Alberta - Crystal Webster 1 4

Kelly Scott 1 4 (World Champion)

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I know elite sport should be a meritocracy...but with Bernard this sounds entirely too familiar. The requirement for the Roar should have been a world championship medal in the 5-10 years. When we send rinks with no elite international experience they never win. Gushue had Russ Howard and had won juniors gold twice. Bernard hasn't even won the Scott.

Well the Canadian Olympic Curling Trials are under way the current men's standings:

Ontario - Glenn Howard - 5 0 (world champion)

Alberta - Kevin Martin - 4 1 (world champion and Olympic silver medalist)

Manitoba - Jeff Stoughton - 3 2 (world champion)

Alberta - Kevin Koe - 3 2

Alberta - Randy Ferbey 3 2 (world champion)

Ontario - Wayne Middaugh 1 4 (world champion, not as skip)

Saskatchewan - Pat Simmons 1 4

Manitoba - Jason Gunnlaugson 0 5

(3 world champions and 1 Olympic champion were eliminated in the preliminary round)

Women's

Alberta - Cheryl Bernard 5 0

Ontario - Krista McCarville 3 2

Saskatchewan - Stefanie Lawton 3 2

Alberta - Shannon Kleibrink 3 2 (Olympic bronze medalist)

Saskatchewan - Amber Holland 2 3

Manitoba - Jennifer Jones 2 3 (World Champion)

Alberta - Crystal Webster 1 4

Kelly Scott 1 4 (World Champion)

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Well by that logic only Jennifer Jones and Kelley Scott would have been in the Olympic trails, since out of the 4 teams that have medalled in the last 10 years, only two of them still play. And look at how well Jones and Scott are doing. Whoever wins the trials will be a favourite for a medal, no question, whether it be Bernard, Kleibrink or whomever.

And just to point out

Kelly Law - 2000 World Champion - 2002 Bronze medalist

Shannon Kleibrink - no world championship experience - 2006 Bronze medalist

Canada has dominated women's curling over the last 20 years like we have men's. Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Switzerland have all produced outstanding teams that have been equals to the Canadian women. And now the Chinese have a really strong team as well.

And remember we generally send new teams to the word championships every year or two, most of them manage to medal.

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I know elite sport should be a meritocracy...but with Bernard this sounds entirely too familiar. The requirement for the Roar should have been a world championship medal in the 5-10 years. When we send rinks with no elite international experience they never win. Gushue had Russ Howard and had won juniors gold twice. Bernard hasn't even won the Scott.

Well Bernard has to win the Alberta playdowns just to get to the Scotties, which is not an easy task in itself with teams like Kleibrink, King, Webster, etc.

I think any women team we send will be able to at least make the playoffs. Winning the gold will be more difficult though. I hope Kleibrink wins the trials as she's the safest bet.

Holland or McCarville winning it woud be...interesting ;)

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Kleibrink choked; no international experience makes that understandable. At least having <I>been</I> to worlds seems obvious to me. Having just looked over the last 10 years of both senior and junior women, there's about 6-8 rinks that could've qualified (Colleen Jones the exception).

Well Bernard has to win the Alberta playdowns just to get to the Scotties, which is not an easy task in itself with teams like Kleibrink, King, Webster, etc.

I think any women team we send will be able to at least make the playoffs. Winning the gold will be more difficult though. I hope Kleibrink wins the trials as she's the safest bet.

Holland or McCarville winning it woud be...interesting ;)

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Kleibrink had the second best numbers out of all skips, only the the gold medalist Annette Norberg curler better throughout the competition and her lead, lead all leads in stats. Kleibrink curlers well, she just got outplayed by Marjim Ott. Someone that will be challenging for a medal in Vancouver as well.

And again

Mike Harris - no world championships - silver medal

Sandra Schirmler - multiple world champion - gold medal

Kelley Law - world champion - bronze medal

Kevin Martin - world championship silver - silver medal

Shannon Kleibrink - no world championships - bronze medal

Brad Gushue - no world championship - gold medal

Being at the world championships and success at the Olympics is not correlated.

In Nagano

the men's final was between two unknown teams, the women's final featured Denmark, at the time a curling light-weight

In Salt Lake City, an a perennial failure wins the women's gold medal, a perennial also ran wins men's gold

Only 50% of gold medals have gone to teams that were thought to go contend for the gold and only 10 of 18 medals have gone to favourites going in. Canada has managed to medal in every tournament. That should say something in itself. Canada can't win gold every time and there are countries that have as good of teams as the tops in this country.

If you sent any one of the women's or men's teams in the roar, I bet all of them would medal in front of a home crowd.

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The Playoffs

Semi-Final

Glenn Howard vs Jeff Stoughton

Final

Kevin Martin vs winner of the semi-final

Krista McCarville vs Stefanie Lawton

Amber Holland vs winner of the previous match

Semi-final

Shannon Kleibrink vs winner of previous match

Final

Cheryl Bernard vs winner of the semi-final

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Also - I feel bad for our speed skaters. TSN/CTV is really putting on the pressure with dedicated commercials and calling them our best team ever. So if they win less then 14 medals (8 is the most at long, 6 short) it will be a crushing failure.

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Gushue has TWO gold medals from world juniors actually :)

Kleibrink had the second best numbers out of all skips, only the the gold medalist Annette Norberg curler better throughout the competition and her lead, lead all leads in stats. Kleibrink curlers well, she just got outplayed by Marjim Ott. Someone that will be challenging for a medal in Vancouver as well.

And again

Mike Harris - no world championships - silver medal

Sandra Schirmler - multiple world champion - gold medal

Kelley Law - world champion - bronze medal

Kevin Martin - world championship silver - silver medal

Shannon Kleibrink - no world championships - bronze medal

Brad Gushue - no world championship - gold medal

Being at the world championships and success at the Olympics is not correlated.

In Nagano

the men's final was between two unknown teams, the women's final featured Denmark, at the time a curling light-weight

In Salt Lake City, an a perennial failure wins the women's gold medal, a perennial also ran wins men's gold

Only 50% of gold medals have gone to teams that were thought to go contend for the gold and only 10 of 18 medals have gone to favourites going in. Canada has managed to medal in every tournament. That should say something in itself. Canada can't win gold every time and there are countries that have as good of teams as the tops in this country.

If you sent any one of the women's or men's teams in the roar, I bet all of them would medal in front of a home crowd.

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And if you look at the number of world junior champions that do well at the senior level you would know that means nothing. Success at the junior level means nothing at the senior level and doesn't come close to preparing you for what senior competition is like. There have been innumerable junior stars that have not materialized into stars at the senior rank. This is a trend across all sports.

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Lueders is injured. Might be a blow to his already sub-par season. I wounder if we will see Serge Despres back on the World Cup next week, he is making quite a comeback after his doping suspension...

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Lueders is injured. Might be a blow to his already sub-par season. I wounder if we will see Serge Despres back on the World Cup next week, he is making quite a comeback after his doping suspension...

Well Lueders usually doesn't do well in the first part of the season to begin with.

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