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How Many Medals Will Canada Win?


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We've done if over an entire season for world cups and world championships.

The different between Canada coming first or second is if we capitalize on our medal hopes in more competitive sports like figure skating and snowboarding. We need a 4/4 performance in figure skating and 2 to 3 medals from snowboarding

Speed Skating - the expectation is between 8 and 12

Short Track - the expectation is between 8 and 10

Bobsleigh - the expectation is 2

Skeleton - the expectation is 3

Freestyle skiing - the expectation is between 6 and 10

Alpine skiing - the expectation is 2

Cross country skiing - the expectation is 2

Biathlon - the expectation is 0

Luge - the expectation is 1

Ice Hockey - the expectation is 2

Curling - the expectation is 2

Ski jumping - the expectation is 0

Nordic Combined - the expectation is 0

Figure skating - the expectation is 3

Snowboarding - the expectation is 2 to 3

Based on individual federation results Canada is looking at between 41 and 52 medals. Over-ambitious yes, but there is the real chance that Canada could break the 36 medal record if all things go right.

Canada needs its men's speed skaters to step up and produce more then 2 medals like they did at the last world championships

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If I had to guess currently

11 gold (women's moguls, men's moguls, men's ski corss, men's 5000m relay, men's skeleton, men's 2-man bobsleigh, women's team pursuit, women's 1500m, women's 3000m, men's 1000m and men's 1500m short track, men's curling)

12 silver (men's hockey, women's hockey, women's curling, women's ski cross, men's aerials, men's team pursit, men's 1500m, men's 1000m short track, men's figure skating, women's 5000m, women's 3000m, women's 1000m short track)

14 bronze (women's cross country sprint, women's sprint relay, women's 3000m, men's 500m, men's 4 man bobsleigh, women's skeleton, men's skeleton, women's 500m short track, women's 3000m relay, men's parallel giant slalom, women's snowboard cross, women's figure skating, ice dance)

37 medals.

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When do you think history will be made and a Canadian wins gold in Canada for the first time ever?

Around 18h30, Monday 15th, at the Richmond Oval

Jeremy Wotherspoon at the 500m event.

I have my ticket for that (SS003) :lol:

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I would say one of Francois Louis Trembly or Charles Hamelin in the men's 1500m or Jennifer Heil in the women's moguls or Ladies 3000m (I predict of sweep with Nesbitt, Groves and Klassen) or one of Rousseau or Bilodeau will win a gold or 3 on the weekend before Jeremy tries to exorcise Olympic ghosts past.

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I would say one of Francois Louis Trembly or Charles Hamelin in the men's 1500m or Jennifer Heil in the women's moguls or Ladies 3000m (I predict of sweep with Nesbitt, Groves and Klassen) or one of Rousseau or Bilodeau will win a gold or 3 on the weekend before Jeremy tries to exorcise Olympic ghosts past.

You're right and I agree at 100% with you.

I put a smiley in my message, because I was joking, expecting the first medal to JW only because I have a ticket for that and not for the others events before.

(I have nothing in day one, and on day two I will be at Whistler for Women's Alpine Skiing and Men's Luge. So no hope of gold for us.)

JW will be my first really good chance to see a canadian medal

And off course I really hope that we will not have to wait to day three to get our first gold

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I think Canada will win 30 medals at the very least. There will be some guttered Canadians out there if they dont win the Hockey gold.

New Zealand are expected to win any medals. :(

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Well since Lake Placid

Lake Placid - USA increased by 71.4%

Sarajevo - Yugoslavia increased by 100%

Calgary - Canada increased by 25%

Albertville - France increased by 350%

Lillehammer - Norway increased by 30%

Nagano - Japan increased by 100%

Salt Lake City - USA increased by 161.5% and a whooping 21 medals

Torino - Italy decreased by 15%

And since Canada's program is shaped after SLC's and we are only the second winter host to pour as much money as we did an increase of 6 to 10 medals should be expected.

In fact the average increase is about a 103%.

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I think you are overrating the short track team a bit. Strangely enough, it's one of the few sports in which our results decreased over the last four years, even with all the Own the podium money. Most of the coaches have left for the USA and now their program is really strong, maybe even stronger than ours. I would be surprised if we win more than 4-5 medals.

For all sports, as of now, I would predict:

Speed skating = 8 (Men 500m, Men 1000m, Women 1000m, Women 1500m(x2), Women 3000m, Women 5000m, Women Pursuit)

Short track = 5 (Men 500m(x2), Men 1000m, Men relay, Women 500m)

Bobsleigh = 2 (Men's two, Women)

Skeleton = 2 (1 man, 1 woman)

Freestyle skiing = 5 (Men moguls, Men aerials, Women moguls, Men ski cross, Women ski cross)

Alpine skiing = 1 (Men Super G)

Cross country skiing = 1 (One random , from the men probably)

Biathlon = 0

Luge = 0

Ice Hockey = 2

Curling = 2

Ski Jumping = 0

Nordic Combined = 0

Figure Skating = 2 (Dance, Women)

Snowboard = 3 (Men PGS, Men snowboard Cross, Women snowboard Cross)

Total = 33

Wow 33...with pessimistic predictions I should say. So it could be a lot higher actually! Especially if we sweep 1 or 2 podium in events in which we have a lot of depth (Women speed skating and ski cross for example)

To top the medals standing, those things have to happen:

-Obviously, canadian athletes have to convert medal chances

-Our bobsledders, skeletoners and lugers have to master the Whistler track. It's where home field advantage could really pay off.

-The medals in biathlon, cross-country skiing and nordic combined have to be spread out among many nations, as it's Germany's bread and butter. Let's hope the swedes, finns, austrians and russians are in good shape.

-Because Canada and the USA are good in the same sports, canadians will have to beat americans head to head in most events, especially in short track, speed skating and freestyle skiing.

-Someone has to deny the americans a sweep of the medals in half-pipe.

I think that in the end, it will come down to the wire between Canada, Germany and the United States for the total number of medals, with Austria and Norway also in the mix for the total number of gold medals. Russia will probably not be a factor.

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Our two best cross country skiiers are Chandra Crawford and Sara Reiner. I would think most would have them down for the sprint relay. Though Crawford has a brother that is coming along nicely.

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Our two best cross country skiiers are Chandra Crawford and Sara Reiner. I would think most would have them down for the sprint relay. Though Crawford has a brother that is coming along nicely.

The sprint relay will be in skating style, which is not Renner's forte. And Renner haven't really been good in sprints since she came back. She has a better chance in longer distances.

As for Crawford, she was out all year because of injury so we don't really know if she's in good shape. I think you're thinking of her sister, Rosana, who's a biathlete.

In cross-country skiing, our best bets are Ivan Babikov, Devon Kershaw and Alex Harvey. I wouldn't be surprised if we win bronze in the 40km relay.

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Well the individual sprint is classical so Reiner has a chance there.

Crawford has said everything is going well and so did her coach, she has been training all summer and the cross-country team has gotten a lot of funding, enough to stay in Europe and train there.

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Oooh I looooove prediction topics!!!

Here's my breakdown:

Speed skating 8 (M 500m, L 1000m, L 1500m , L 3000m, L 5000m x2, both pursuits)

Short track 6 (M 500m, L 500m, L 1000m, M 1500m, both relays)

Sliding 1 (1 skeleton; M 2 man)

Freestyle skiing 5 (One each except no men's moguls)

Alpine skiing 3 (2 men's speed events; 1 women's speed event)

Cross country skiing 1 (could be in any number of events

Ice Hockey 2

Curling 2

Ski Jumping Nordic Combined, Biathlon 0

Figure Skating 3 (men's, ladies', dance)

Snowboard 3 (men's PGS, men's cross, ladies' cross)

Total 34

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Jawn I know predictions are personal and everything but:

Canada has two chances at sweeping the podium, the Women's 3000m Speed Skating (Nesbitt, Groves, Klassen and Hughes all are great at the distance and the three that will compete at it, likely Groves, Klassen and Hughes will be the favourites to go 1-2-3 because of the weak German team, there is still strong Dutch women but it still holds that it is one of the two possible sweeps) and the men's moguls. In the overall world cup last season, Canadians finished 1-3-4. I will be shocked and bewildered if one or multiple of Alexandre Bilodeau, Vincent Marguis or Pierre-Alexandre Rousseau do not medal. I would say men's aerials also had a chance if it not for the strength of the Chinese. And skeleton is too unpredictable but we have 3 very good men.

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Except we've gone into the last 2 (maybe 3) OWG kicking arse in men's aerials, only to fall way short at the Games themselves.

Sweeping the podium in any sport is statistically very unlikely. We've not seen Klassen in over a year; Wotherspoon today proved that the road back can be surprisingly tough (he didn't qualify for the fall World Cup at 500m, despite being the greatest 500m skater of all time). Having all of them in the top 5? Likely I would say. 2 or more on the podium, doesn't happen often.

But I was being conservative in my predictions...originally I had Canada down for 39 medals. So shaved a few off--including the ones you've mentioned

;)

It'll be fun to revisit these when we get to the Xmas break.

Jawn I know predictions are personal and everything but:

Canada has two chances at sweeping the podium, the Women's 3000m Speed Skating (Nesbitt, Groves, Klassen and Hughes all are great at the distance and the three that will compete at it, likely Groves, Klassen and Hughes will be the favourites to go 1-2-3 because of the weak German team, there is still strong Dutch women but it still holds that it is one of the two possible sweeps) and the men's moguls. In the overall world cup last season, Canadians finished 1-3-4. I will be shocked and bewildered if one or multiple of Alexandre Bilodeau, Vincent Marguis or Pierre-Alexandre Rousseau do not medal. I would say men's aerials also had a chance if it not for the strength of the Chinese. And skeleton is too unpredictable but we have 3 very good men.

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Except we've gone into the last 2 (maybe 3) OWG kicking arse in men's aerials, only to fall way short at the Games themselves.

Sweeping the podium in any sport is statistically very unlikely. We've not seen Klassen in over a year; Wotherspoon today proved that the road back can be surprisingly tough (he didn't qualify for the fall World Cup at 500m, despite being the greatest 500m skater of all time). Having all of them in the top 5? Likely I would say. 2 or more on the podium, doesn't happen often.

But I was being conservative in my predictions...originally I had Canada down for 39 medals. So shaved a few off--including the ones you've mentioned

;)

It'll be fun to revisit these when we get to the Xmas break.

2 or more happened 27 times in 2006, 2 sweeps (record by Germany and Austria) also there was 3 Canadian multiple medalist (1500, 5000m women's speed skating and men's skeleton)

and 31 times in 2002. 2 sweeps (Germany and USA)

So roughly a third of events have the same flag going up at least two polls.

The first 3 days are going to be very important to Canada's overall success, if we can get another Jennifer Heil moment it will step up the rest to fellow in step.

Day 1

Men's Downhill - outside chance

5000m Men's - needs a miracle

7.5km Biathlon: Women's - needs a miracle (or a Chandra Crawford moment)

Men's 1500m Short Track - good chance, depends on a lot of things

Ladies Moguls - good chance with both Heil and Richards, hopefully Richards can show her world championship form from 2007

Day 2

Nordic Combined - not gonna happen

Ladies Super Combined - not gonna happen

Biathlon - men's 10km sprint - ya never know

Men's luge - nope

Men's moguls - 3 possible medalist

Ladies 3000m - 3 possible medalist

Day 3

Ladies 10km Free X-Country - if Reiner is healthy she has a chance

Men's snowboard cross - Canada has the talent to get two in the finals, it would be nice to see Anderson get over his Olympic hump

Men's 15km X-Country - ya never know

Men's 500m - another event where it would be nice to see another perennial Canadian underachiever get things going

Pairs - as Dube and Davison showed today, in a tough crowd they can stand out.

I would love to see a day were the team outperforms Calgary as a whole.

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Jawn I know predictions are personal and everything but:

Canada has two chances at sweeping the podium, the Women's 3000m Speed Skating (Nesbitt, Groves, Klassen and Hughes all are great at the distance and the three that will compete at it, likely Groves, Klassen and Hughes will be the favourites to go 1-2-3 because of the weak German team, there is still strong Dutch women but it still holds that it is one of the two possible sweeps) and the men's moguls. In the overall world cup last season, Canadians finished 1-3-4. I will be shocked and bewildered if one or multiple of Alexandre Bilodeau, Vincent Marguis or Pierre-Alexandre Rousseau do not medal. I would say men's aerials also had a chance if it not for the strength of the Chinese. And skeleton is too unpredictable but we have 3 very good men.

There's no way Canada is sweeping the 3000m.

Hugues hasn't won a medal on this distance for quite some time now (a few years). Nesbitt is a midle distance specialist. She has never been good over 3000m. Lastly, Sablikova from the Czech Republic is a lock for a medal, if not the gold.

If our women sweep an event in speed skating, it's going to be the 1000m or the 1500m, in which we have 5 medal hopefuls (Nesbitt, Groves, Klassen, Schussler and Rempel). Unfortunatly, one of those 5 will watch from the stands.

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