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So, Where Does That Leave 2020?


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I think they need to wait until the IOC 'needs' the US again (if they ever do) and then step in to save the day ---- may not ever happen but that seems to be when the IOC turns to the US most.

who knows.

no foreseeable olympic games might see US audiences wane in their interest for them. and other US viewers may take to the web for viewing the games, meaning a decrease in viewership.

the olympics going to rio is certainly a big step for them, but i can't see US audiences caring about the new frontiers so much. brazil is not china. there's no mutual fascination with the mysterious east, the emerging sports rival to play off of.

i'd love to see what happens if US audiences really stopped caring so much about the olympics. not likely, i'm sure, but i can see the net start to take away primetime viewing audiences. less commercials, for one thing.

the games' athletic environment--something rarely talked about on here--probably has a lot to do with it.

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who knows.

no foreseeable olympic games might see US audiences wane in their interest for them. and other US viewers may take to the web for viewing the games, meaning a decrease in viewership.

the olympics going to rio is certainly a big step for them, but i can't see US audiences caring about the new frontiers so much. brazil is not china. there's no mutual fascination with the mysterious east, the emerging sports rival to play off of.

i'd love to see what happens if US audiences really stopped caring so much about the olympics. not likely, i'm sure, but i can see the net start to take away primetime viewing audiences. less commercials, for one thing.

the games' athletic environment--something rarely talked about on here--probably has a lot to do with it.

At least the time zone is convenient for the Americans...

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With no hope of hosting the Games for at least another 15 years, I think it's quite possible that American interest will wane. That will have some sort of impact on broadcasting rights and sponsorships. I don't think the interest will disappear altogether, but this is an increasingly busy world with a lot of different activities clamoring for attention. The Olympics only happen every four years. It would be easy for people to just find they're more interested in other things.

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Especially as the predominant fastest growing sports are things like MMA and US style football - it's clear the Games are becoming less "American" and more "whatever else" and that may be a fine thing. As long as US athletes win gold, there will be NBCs and Coca Colas and US viewers clamoring for coverage.... if that goes, then American interest will be gone with the wind! Just my feeling on fickle Americans - we only want to see ourselves WIN! If we're losing, who wants to watch that!

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With no hope of hosting the Games for at least another 15 years, I think it's quite possible that American interest will wane. That will have some sort of impact on broadcasting rights and sponsorships. I don't think the interest will disappear altogether, but this is an increasingly busy world with a lot of different activities clamoring for attention. The Olympics only happen every four years. It would be easy for people to just find they're more interested in other things.

I wouldn't underestimate the American interest on the Games. Just remember that most of the rest of the world haven't ever hosted an OG and still have interest for it and watch it on TV... USA also has one of the best olympic teams and wins tons of medals every SOG...

Americans can't be that spoiled...

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Hang on. I'm not talking about spoiled. I'm talking about distracted -- other things getting people's attention. They wouldn't be intentionally slighting the Olympics, they would just start forgetting about them and not really caring about them without even realizing it.

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I don't think the USA has to host for them to have an interest. A good story is a good story and Olympic interest in the USA is just as strong as ever. The US is a big country and from my experience, people in California or Maine really weren't all that impacted either way from the Atlanta Games.

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Naaaah. The marketing and media machinery is still there...regardless of WHERE the Games are held. These things are all lined up. You can just imagine that the avertising/marketing budgets of the longtime IOC stalwarts Coke, Visa, McDonalds are all projected 4 to 5 years ahead. It all just gets a bigger bump if it's held on US soil...but now, you will have a lot of Brazilian-Americans who will plan their vacations around WC 2014 and Rio 2016.

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Hang on. I'm not talking about spoiled. I'm talking about distracted -- other things getting people's attention. They wouldn't be intentionally slighting the Olympics, they would just start forgetting about them and not really caring about them without even realizing it.

I know... I'm not calling americans spoiled, that's why I believe there'll continue to be interest in OG.

The rest of the world doesn't forget or get distracted because can't host the Games, so shouldn't the americans.

I don't see a long period of time without hosting as an issue...

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My thoughts on potential 2020 Summer Olympics Hosts:

Europe

First of all, nobody has mentioned that Paris is angling toward a 2024 bid to celebrate the 100th anniversary from the last Olympics that the city hosted. With all the Europeans on the IOC, that bid is sure to succeed, and since it's already in the works, the IOC will surely be anticipating it in four year's time when they decide on the 2020 host. This makes the chances of a European host very unlikely, though still higher than...

Cape Town

As far as Cape Town's chances, they are dead in the water. No matter how good of a show Brazil puts on in 2016, you can bet that in four year's time, Rio 2016 will be behind schedule and over-budget. With the (continued) added fear of a crime-ridden games, there is no chance that the IOC will take another risk and award the 2020 Games to Cape Town. Likewise, a potential win by New Delhi is not likely.

Australia

Brisbane is also preparing for an upcoming bid. However, it's hard for me to imagine the Olympics coming back to a relatively small country (21 million) in just 20 years. Besides, Brisbane does not have the allure of fellow Australian cities, Sydney or Melbourne.

Asia

Japan is bound to host the Olympics again in the near future. Considering that their last Summer Games happened in 1964, they have a good shot at an Olympics sometime between 2020-2028. However, it took 20 years for the Summer Games to return to Asia between 1988 and 2008. I would guess that they won't be back just 12 years after Beijing (especially if Pyeongchang wins in 2018). Still, you never know-- half of all the people on the planet are Asian and I'm sure the purchasing power of this growing market isn't lost on IOC voters.

North America

In my mind, assuming that the IOC is waiting on a 2024 Paris bid, then the race for the host of the 2020 Olympics is between the US, Mexico, and Canada. Looking at North America, I truly don't believe that the IOC would go for two Latin Olympics in a row, virtually eliminating Mexico from contention. There's been a lot of talk on this board about a Canadian bid, but 2020 falls too close to the 2010 date. In addition, Canadian bids have a horrible history-- Montreal and Calgary are still paying for their games. Besides, while Canada does have a storied tradition in the Winter Games, it has not performed as well in the Summer Olympics.

That leaves the US. I cannot attest for IOC-USOC relations, but I have a hard time imagining that the US would not host the Summer Games in a span of 32 years which, if I'm right about my Paris hypothesis, is what we're looking at should they not win the 2020 Olympics. I have no idea what city would host the games-- certainly, Tulsa, Birmingham, and Detroit aren't that exciting-- but if a beautiful, well-developed, and modern US city wants to host, I could see them winning. I'd be on the lookout for Seattle, New York, Chicago, or Boston, though if they could work out the kinks from their failed 2012 USOC bid, a San Francisco bid could work.

The Rest

The only other intriguing bid that I could think of was Istanbul, which consistently faces that "Is it in Europe? Is it in Asia" question and therefore might not be hurt by an upcoming Parisian bid. If, in four years, fears of terrorism have subsided a bit (or even if they haven't), Istanbul could stand a chance. It would, however, face many of the same questions as were faced by Rio in this year's race.

If the Paris 2024 bid isn't as anticipated as I suggest in this post, then watch out for: Madrid, who wants them badly and can obviously prepare good bids; Rome, who won't have hosted in 60 years and is steeped in history (always a plus for a potential host); or possibly even Budapest, which is one of the only original IOC member nations not to host the Olympics.

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my predictions for 2020:

AFRICA: chance, but I doubt that the IOC will give the Games to two "new frontiers" in a row

NORTH-AMERICA: good chance, but

- I wonder if the USA will bid a third time in a row

- Canada: too soon after Vancouver 2010

- Central America: no chance after Rio de Janeiro 2016

SOUTH-AMERICA: no chance after Rio de Janeiro 2016

ASIA: good chance

- I wonder if we see another bid from Japan

- maybe bids from India (depends on the success of the CWG2010) or Korea (depends on the decision about 2018)

- maybe another country from South-East-Asia

- China: too soon after Beijing 2008

EUROPE: good chance

- I wonder if Madrid tries it again after this marvellous presentation/bid

- Rome: good chance

- Stockholm?

- Istanbul (it will become interesting if the IOC would esteem a turkish bid as "new frontier")?

- Berlin and Paris depend on the decision about 2018

OCEANIA: chance

- I would love to see Kiwi Games

- Australia: too soon after Sydney

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I don't subscribe to the idea that American interest in the Games will wane. American sports fans aren't that fickle; we enjoy the pageantry of the Olympics every four years just as everyone else does, even if we don't pay nearly as much attention to World Championships in track and swimming (though there was great interest in Usain Bolt's performance in Berlin this summer).

Don't underestimate the factor of Rio being only one hour ahead of the Eastern time zone. The Ceremonies and other big events will likely be live, which is important as we move into the "Twitter age." The tape delay just isn't a feasible option for big events anymore; the results can't be avoided.

Plus, even though we as Americans aren't interested as in China as Brazil, I think many are interested in the city of Rio, which is thought of as a gorgeous natural city and a Carnival city.

I have a feeling that the ratings for Rio 2016 will be higher than London 2012, despite the Bolt and Phelps factor in 2012. London just isn't as exciting as Beijing or Rio.

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If the US isn't getting the SOG for a while, then go Toronto. It would be nice to have the Summer games within 5000 miles of where I live before I turn 40 (19 now).

Altough I'm not in favour of the OG 2016 in Rio, now you know how we, South Americans, feel for over 100 years... :P

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I see Boston being the successful bid city for the US, but I'm just speculating. Seattle, don't forget, is very close in proximity to Vancouver. Although they're in two different countries, I think that could play a factor. As far as Europe goes, Rome should have a great shot, I think they'll do better than Madrid this go around. All of the points regarding South Africa and Canada are valid. Right now, I think Rome is a sure thing, and an American city obviously is a sure thing. I think it will be Boston though. Also, we've heard Denver, but it makes no sense why they would go for a summer olympics.

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I see Boston being the successful bid city for the US, but I'm just speculating. Seattle, don't forget, is very close in proximity to Vancouver. Although they're in two different countries, I think that could play a factor. As far as Europe goes, Rome should have a great shot, I think they'll do better than Madrid this go around. All of the points regarding South Africa and Canada are valid. Right now, I think Rome is a sure thing, and an American city obviously is a sure thing. I think it will be Boston though. Also, we've heard Denver, but it makes no sense why they would go for a summer olympics.

For the Games the size they will be in 2020, Boston is too small and cramped to be a viable contender.

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For the Games the size they will be in 2020, Boston is too small and cramped to be a viable contender.

how about a very campacted games like Chicagos and Tokyos plan?

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For the Games the size they will be in 2020, Boston is too small and cramped to be a viable contender.

I think Boston's reputation as being a very environmentally friendly city will bolster their attempt. Either Boston, or San Francisco because it's also green. I think Boston though. Pure guess.

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My thoughts:

Capetown: anyone trying to draw conclusions based on the assumption that Cape Town is analogous to Rio is simply wrong. Brazil is a major world economy; South Africa is not. Brazil has a robust multi-party democracy; South Africa remains a fiefdom of the ANC. Rio proved itself with the Pan Am Games and one previous football World Cup (and another coming up); South Africa is clearly struggling to put together its World Cup...and it's coming up close. Besides--Capetown has a shockingly small number of hotel rooms. There are only 2 cities on the continent that could conceivable accommodate an OSG: Cairo and Durban. Not. Gonna. Happen.

Toronto: depending on what the US does and how Vancouver does, could be a goer. Already perceived as a legitimate candidate. Enough antipathy (fairly or not) towards the USOC might favour TO in a North American split. The big variable though is the economy: Ontario's depends much more on manufacturing and it's in rough shape. If a bunch of those jobs don't come back, will people want to spend $ on another Olympics so soon? There's also talk of Québec going for 2022--which I think would work better regardless. But still possible.

NY/Chicago/SF: infighting and problematic bids have been the barriers here. Get moving earlier, get the bid in shape quickly and start workshopping it around (especially to the folks from London and Rio). Make the case. I think on a fundamental level the IOC would be happy in any of these. But they expect the most powerful country in the world to nail down a flawless bid. Period. I'd go with Chicago again personally, and avoid SF because of California's stoopid tax laws.

Tokyo: I assume Pyeonchang is getting 2018. If they do, Tokyo should wait. If they don't, Tokyo might still want to wait.

Madrid: go for it, unless Annecy or Munich gets 2018.

Doha: PICK DATES WITHIN THE DATES "SUGGESTED" NEXT TIME.

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Fun fact from Google Earth.

Did you know that NYC to Athens and NYC to Rio are about the same distance?

Anyway, I was looking though the biggest metro areas to see of the past five SOG (Sydney to Rio), which has been furthest away from any of them. Mexico City (2nd largest metro area in world) hasn't had the games within 4500 miles and the winner for the top 20 largest metro areas is Los Angeles (13th) which is 5500 miles from London, 6250 from Beijing, 6300 from Rio, and 6900 from Athens.

My point? North America should be getting the 2020 games.

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