The Bookies Say ...

[Sir Rols]

Interesting to see the lastest odds from the various bookmakers:

Oddschecker Olympics 2016 Markets

Chicago's still leading, but a significant shortening for Rio over the past few weeks.

For anyone who's been following them, Rio was as high as 4.5:1 as little as two weeks ago. Now it's down to 2 or less.

[Dinhu4ever]

Am I the only one who finds these bet figures incredibvly confusing? o.o

[DannyelBrazil]

Am I the only one who finds these bet figures incredibvly confusing? o.o

We are not used to this since bets are prohibited in Brazil...

[Sir Rols]

Okay - betting markets are expressed in terms of ratios of how much you will be paid back if you bet a dollar on it.

For example, in the odds above, Chicago is given a price of 4/5 in quite a few of them. That means you need to bet $4 if you want to make back $5 if they win - a 20 per cent return.

Rio is priced at 2. That means if you bet $1, and they win, you will double your money and get back $2. Believe me, that is really changing. A few weeks ago, there were odds of 4.5/1 for Rio, meaning if I bet $1, I'd get $4.50 if they won.

The odds change depending on how much money is being bet on the particular choices. If most people are expecyting Chicago to win, and most of the money is being bet on them, the return will be less than the others and keep getting less as m0ore money is put on it.

[ChiTown16]

We are not used to this since bets are prohibited in Brazil...

This is how I read the odds:

Reading down the first two columns:

--------------------------- Boylesports -------- Betfred

Chicago ---------------------- 4/5 -------------- 4/5

Rio ---------------------------- 2 ----------------- 2

Tokyo ------------------------- 11/2 ------------- 6

Madrid ------------------------- 12 --------------- 12

The probability of a win, according to Boylesports is:

Chicago: For every 9 identical elections, 4 losses to Chicago, 5 wins to Chicago. Likelihood of Chicago winning is 5/9 or about 55.6%

Rio: For every 3 identical elections, 2 losses to Rio, 1 win to Rio. Likelihood of Rio winning is 1/3 or about 33.3%

Tokyo: For every 13 identical elections, 11 losses to Tokyo, 2 wins to Tokyo. Likelihood of Tokyo winning is 2/13 or about 15.4%

Madrid: For every 13 identical elections, 12 losses to Madrid, 1 win to Madrid. Likelihood of Madrid winning is 1/12 or about 8.33%

I think this is how it works:

for a $1 bet on Chicago, if Chicago wins, the return is $1 * (1/55.6%) or about $1.80

for a $1 bet on Rio, if Rio wins, the return is $1 * (1/33.3%) or about $3

for a $1 bet on Tokyo, if Tokyo wins, the return is $1 * (1/15.4%) or about $6.49

for a $1 bet on Madrid, if Madrid wins, the return is $1 * (1/8.33%) or about $13

CHItown '16

[ChiTown16]

That was my read - seems Sir Rotel responded earlier with a different interpretation.

In any case, according to the booking agents, Madrid and Tokyo are unlikely. Rio is becoming more likely but Chicago could win on near coin flip odds.

CHItown '16

[Sir Rols]

This is how I read the odds:

Reading down the first two columns:

--------------------------- Boylesports -------- Betfred

Chicago ---------------------- 4/5 -------------- 4/5

Rio ---------------------------- 2 ----------------- 2

Tokyo ------------------------- 11/2 ------------- 6

Madrid ------------------------- 12 --------------- 12

The probability of a win, according to Boylesports is:

Chicago: For every 9 identical elections, 4 losses to Chicago, 5 wins to Chicago. Likelihood of Chicago winning is 5/9 or about 55.6%

Rio: For every 3 identical elections, 2 losses to Rio, 1 win to Rio. Likelihood of Rio winning is 1/3 or about 33.3%

Tokyo: For every 13 identical elections, 11 losses to Tokyo, 2 wins to Tokyo. Likelihood of Tokyo winning is 2/13 or about 15.4%

Madrid: For every 13 identical elections, 12 losses to Madrid, 1 win to Madrid. Likelihood of Madrid winning is 1/12 or about 8.33%

I think this is how it works:

for a $1 bet on Chicago, if Chicago wins, the return is $1 * (1/55.6%) or about $1.80

for a $1 bet on Rio, if Rio wins, the return is $1 * (1/33.3%) or about $3

for a $1 bet on Tokyo, if Tokyo wins, the return is $1 * (1/15.4%) or about $6.49

for a $1 bet on Madrid, if Madrid wins, the return is $1 * (1/8.33%) or about $13

CHItown '16

You're reading them as probabilities - which they're not. They are based on money invested so far, and the returns the bookies are offering on bets. It's all based on how much money is wagered on the variuous items, and how much the bookies are now prepared to pay back for $1 bets if any of them win. Basically, they don't want to go broke. More money is being wagered on Chicago, based on these markets, so the return is much, much less than the others.

[DannyelBrazil]

Gotcha! Thx!