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The 2016 Vote Predictions Thread


Sir Rols

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Okay everyone. The stage is set. Bid committee members are now developing ulcers and swallowing valiums to get them through the next week. This time next week, there’s gonna be some jubilant celebrations in one city, disappointment in three others, and a lot of flame wars going on here no doubt.

We’ve all studied and closely followed the race, and have our feelings about what’s going to happen. It’s a GamesBids tradition (well, for the bid elections I’ve been here for) that now we put our money where our mouths are and make our predictions.

Pretty simple really, we just want three guesses:

1: The first bid to be dropped

2: The total number of voting rounds (remember, this could be settled in one, and could go as high as five depending if there are vote-breaker rounds in case of ties in some rounds – or at least that’s as many as I calculate – correct me if I’m wrong).

3: And, of course, the final winner.

There’s no need to try and guess the numbers of votes in any round. You can if you want, but it won’t give you extra points. Or maybe you may get a bonus if you’re particularly spot-on). Similarly, you may wish to post your reasons and reckoning behind your guess, but it’s not necessary. I think most of us have said it all in many threads before - and we don't want this to become another bitter argumentative thread. This is not about who you want to win or think deserves to win (they all deserve it), but who you predict WILL win. It's all about how good Olympic bid forecasters we are (or think we are)!

Of course, things can still happen between now and the vote. Some of us (premium members) can edit our posts. That’s okay, but no edits will be accepted that are made after the final presentations on Friday. Similarly, if you can’t edit, and you REALLY want to change your prediction, do so before the presentations end – and post if this is an ammended prediction or not.

I’ll tally up the guesses after the vote and post results on the weekend. So who here has the best handle on what’s going to happen? Let’s see.

Good Luck to all, and may your favourite city win!

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And for my guess. Hmmm. It's a tough one. Can I keep up my perfect record here so far. As usual, I have a firm belief, but when it gets this close, I start to doubt myself.

Anyway, here goes:

1: First out - Madrid

2: Number of rounds - 2

3: And the winner is ... Rio.

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And for my guess. Hmmm. It's a tough one. Can I keep up my perfect record here so far. As usual, I have a firm belief, but when it gets this close, I start to doubt myself.

Anyway, here goes:

1: First out - Madrid

2: Number of rounds - 2

3: And the winner is ... Rio.

Same here!

First out - Madrid

Number of rounds - 2

Winner - Rio!

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First out...MADRID

Number of Rounds...3

And the winner is...RIO

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The truth is this is a REALLY TOUGH contest. It is just too close to call and, most importantly, we can't read the IOC's minds.

Here are my watered-down predictions:

Neither Madrid, nor Tokyo will win.

There will be at least 2 rounds.

That's all that I feel I can say with any certainty.

I honestly believe it's possible that this thing could go to 5 rounds with multiple tie-breaks.

It's also possible that the IOC will be so certain that it will be over in 2, although I think this is unlikely. All the bids are of such high quality that each of them is going to attract support. This does not take anything away from the ultimate winner, it just means that it's a competitive field.

Who does and doesn't show in Copenhagen will have an impact. What is said behind closed doors will have an impact. The quality of the presentations will have an impact.

I reserve the right to amend my predictions....

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Hmmmm. Interesting. I never expected we'd get predictions of a win for ALL FOUR bids this early, if at all.

The truth is this is a REALLY TOUGH contest. It is just too close to call and, most importantly, we can't read the IOC's minds.

Here are my watered-down predictions:

Neither Madrid, nor Tokyo will win.

There will be at least 2 rounds.

That's all that I feel I can say with any certainty.

I honestly believe it's possible that this thing could go to 5 rounds with multiple tie-breaks.

It's also possible that the IOC will be so certain that it will be over in 2, although I think this is unlikely. All the bids are of such high quality that each of them is going to attract support. This does not take anything away from the ultimate winner, it just means that it's a competitive field.

Who does and doesn't show in Copenhagen will have an impact. What is said behind closed doors will have an impact. The quality of the presentations will have an impact.

I reserve the right to amend my predictions....

It's all guesswork, of course. But remember, you can always change your prediction before the end of the presentations.

It's all about going out on a limb now and seeing how good prognosticators we think we are.

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Okay everyone. The stage is set. Bid committee members are now developing ulcers and swallowing valiums to get them through the next week. This time next week, there’s gonna be some jubilant celebrations in one city, disappointment in three others, and a lot of flame wars going on here no doubt.

We’ve all studied and closely followed the race, and have our feelings about what’s going to happen. It’s a GamesBids tradition (well, for the bid elections I’ve been here for) that now we put our money where our mouths are and make our predictions.

Pretty simple really, we just want three guesses:

1: The first bid to be dropped

2: The total number of voting rounds (remember, this could be settled in one, and could go as high as five depending if there are vote-breaker rounds in case of ties in some rounds – or at least that’s as many as I calculate – correct me if I’m wrong).

3: And, of course, the final winner.

There’s no need to try and guess the numbers of votes in any round. You can if you want, but it won’t give you extra points. Or maybe you may get a bonus if you’re particularly spot-on). Similarly, you may wish to post your reasons and reckoning behind your guess, but it’s not necessary. I think most of us have said it all in many threads before - and we don't want this to become another bitter argumentative thread. This is not about who you want to win or think deserves to win (they all deserve it), but who you predict WILL win. It's all about how good Olympic bid forecasters we are (or think we are)!

Of course, things can still happen between now and the vote. Some of us (premium members) can edit our posts. That’s okay, but no edits will be accepted that are made after the final presentations on Friday. Similarly, if you can’t edit, and you REALLY want to change your prediction, do so before the presentations end – and post if this is an ammended prediction or not.

I’ll tally up the guesses after the vote and post results on the weekend. So who here has the best handle on what’s going to happen? Let’s see.

Good Luck to all, and may your favourite city win!

Can we understand this as a kind of pattern?

If Madrid gets out first, is more LIKELY that Rio wins... and if it's Tokyo, it's more LIKELY it'll be Chicago?

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Can we understand this as a kind of pattern?

If Madrid gets out first, is more LIKELY that Rio wins... and if it's Tokyo, it's more LIKELY it'll be Chicago?

I noticed that too.

I can only guess, Chicago supporters think supporters of Tokyo are those who favour the technicalities and will swing mostly behind Chicago if or when it's eliminated. Carioca supprters are counting on Latin solidarity to swing Madrid supporters to them. Tome, whoever is knocked out first, or second, is irrelevant - it all comes down to a simple majority anyway.

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Can we understand this as a kind of pattern?

If Madrid gets out first, is more LIKELY that Rio wins... and if it's Tokyo, it's more LIKELY it'll be Chicago?

Wow, I agree with thorbr on something.

If Madrid goes out first Rio could win in the second round with the added votes.

If Tokyo goes out first Chicago could win in the second round with the Latin votes split between Rio and Madrid.

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