jawnbc Posted September 26, 2009 Report Share Posted September 26, 2009 My prediction: First to drop will be Madrid, then Tokyo, then Rio wins by a surprising margin. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted September 26, 2009 Report Share Posted September 26, 2009 Tokyo out in Round 1 Rio out in Round 2 Madrid stuns Chicago in Round 3. Samaranch calls in 62 favours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DannyelBrazil Posted September 26, 2009 Report Share Posted September 26, 2009 My prediction:First to drop will be Madrid, then Tokyo, then Rio wins by a surprising margin. Thoughts? First Madrid and then Rio wins in second ballot after a emotional presentation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattperiolat Posted September 26, 2009 Report Share Posted September 26, 2009 Cutting and pasting an earlier theory of mine that I think still holds: OK, just for fun, here's how I see the top four going down:The first one out is going to be the tough one. Going with the "Giving-PC-a-chance-for-'18" theory, it would seem to look like Tokyo would be in trouble. On the other hand, I'm also getting a vibe that was mentioned here earlier the Madrid seems to be coasting into Copenhagen. But I think the first one out also will have a great bearing on who may ultimately win. If it's Tokyo, then I think the votes will be spread out fairly evenly and we'll have a horse race for the host city between Rio and Chicago. If it's Madrid on the other hand, I wonder if the votes there might drift to Rio. Obviously, the two cities are culturally different (Castillian Spanish vs. Portuguese colony), but just a thought there. Anyway, if a gun were held to my head... Madrid out first. London being four years before, Barcelona being fairly recent and it'll also give Madrid a chance to hone the bid, maybe be a contender for 2024, which could be a very hot race between European cities. Round two could be a shocker in that I think if Madrid is still in, they're out on this round and we're off to the races for round three. If it's Tokyo still in on the other hand... the freed up Madrid votes could be very key, either with a boost to Rio or maybe giving the Tokyo bid some legs. Again, gun to my head time... bold prediction: if it's Tokyo/Chicago/Rio, I think Rio could actually win election in round two. If it's Madrid/Chicago/Rio, so long and farewell to Madrid, see you in 2024. There's no need for round three in the Tokyo/Chicago/Rio model. On the other hand, if it's Madrid/Chicago/Rio, we're now down to Chicago and Rio and I expect it to be very VERY close, maybe decided by from 5 to 2 votes. On one hand, Rio has an interesting venue plan and history (never in South America) behind it, but the challenge of a third major hosting event in a row and what I feel are some serious questions about it's transportation infrastructure could hurt the bid. On Chicago's positive side, compact bid, a strong base of support and of course Barack Obama. On the negative, as has been stated, some questions about a stadium plan and US economic concerns are the weak points. Bottom line: if in the hypothetical we get to Rio v. Chicago... I say Chicago in a squeaker, partially due to strength of bid and fewer concerns over preparations, partially because I think Tokyo votes might be more likely to drift to Chicago than Rio. Obviously, no expert, just what I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
micheal_warren Posted September 26, 2009 Report Share Posted September 26, 2009 Madrid out in First round, Tokyo out in Second and then it will be down to Chicago and Rio. Chicago will pip Rio at the post!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted September 26, 2009 Report Share Posted September 26, 2009 Chicago in the first round. The other 3 delegations will be locked out half an hour before the session. Period!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soaring Posted September 27, 2009 Report Share Posted September 27, 2009 Tokyo out in round 1 Madrid out in round 2 winner of round 3 = ???? I hope Chicago can win this, this may be our best and last chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wills Posted September 27, 2009 Report Share Posted September 27, 2009 Tokyo out first Madrid out second Rios beats Chicago by wide margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenadian Posted September 27, 2009 Report Share Posted September 27, 2009 Tokyo out in Round 1Rio out in Round 2 Madrid stuns Chicago in Round 3. Samaranch calls in 62 favours. For that to happen, Samaranch might have to DO 62 favours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenadian Posted September 27, 2009 Report Share Posted September 27, 2009 Madrid out in the first round. Percentages look like M<10|T<20|C35-40|R35-40 On the second ballot, the votes flock from Tokyo and either Chicago or Rio claim a second ballot majority by one or two votes. T<10|C~50|R~50 I'm not ready to name a winner yet, but it will end in "O" and be on a continent with a compass direction in the name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olympian Posted September 27, 2009 Report Share Posted September 27, 2009 in the last 3 elections the magic number has been 3 to 4. 2010: Vancouver by 3 2012: London by 4 2014: Sochi by 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenadian Posted September 27, 2009 Report Share Posted September 27, 2009 Yeah, but the magic number in the previous four was much higher. 2008: Beijing by 34 2006: Torino by 17 2004: Athens by 25 2002: Salt Lake by 40 I suspect this coming election won't be that big, but it could be somewhere in the middle...10 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DannyelBrazil Posted September 27, 2009 Report Share Posted September 27, 2009 Where's Baron??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted September 27, 2009 Report Share Posted September 27, 2009 Where's Baron??? I'M HERE!! Getting my stuff ready for Koben!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawnbc Posted September 27, 2009 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2009 True. But including Torino in there is a bit disingenuous: only 2 candidate cities, one with an OK bid (Torino) and one with a crap one (Sion). Yeah, but the magic number in the previous four was much higher.2008: Beijing by 34 2006: Torino by 17 2004: Athens by 25 2002: Salt Lake by 40 I suspect this coming election won't be that big, but it could be somewhere in the middle...10 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pure facts Posted September 27, 2009 Report Share Posted September 27, 2009 True. But including Torino in there is a bit disingenuous: only 2 candidate cities, one with an OK bid (Torino) and one with a crap one (Sion). Care to elaborate on what exactly was "crap" in Sion's bid? Cause you are either ignorant or re-writing history... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TOKYO! Posted September 27, 2009 Report Share Posted September 27, 2009 My prediction:First to drop will be Madrid, then Tokyo, then Rio wins by a surprising margin. Thoughts? Firts cut Madrid Second Rio Tokyo have asian table. I believe Tokyo's wIn Tokyo 50~52 Chicago 48~46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roux Posted September 27, 2009 Report Share Posted September 27, 2009 Tokyo out in Round 1Rio out in Round 2 Madrid stuns Chicago in Round 3. Samaranch calls in 62 favours. omg! That was hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DannyelBrazil Posted September 27, 2009 Report Share Posted September 27, 2009 I'M HERE!! Getting my stuff ready for Koben!! honest... I'm happy you are here. We have some disagreements, but I have do admit I laugh a lot with some of your posts. I was really concerned. TG, you are here and making your luggage for Koben. Have a nice sarcastic trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.