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How Do You Think The Voting Will Go?


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Cutting and pasting an earlier theory of mine that I think still holds:

OK, just for fun, here's how I see the top four going down:

The first one out is going to be the tough one. Going with the "Giving-PC-a-chance-for-'18" theory, it would seem to look like Tokyo would be in trouble. On the other hand, I'm also getting a vibe that was mentioned here earlier the Madrid seems to be coasting into Copenhagen. But I think the first one out also will have a great bearing on who may ultimately win. If it's Tokyo, then I think the votes will be spread out fairly evenly and we'll have a horse race for the host city between Rio and Chicago. If it's Madrid on the other hand, I wonder if the votes there might drift to Rio. Obviously, the two cities are culturally different (Castillian Spanish vs. Portuguese colony), but just a thought there. Anyway, if a gun were held to my head... Madrid out first. London being four years before, Barcelona being fairly recent and it'll also give Madrid a chance to hone the bid, maybe be a contender for 2024, which could be a very hot race between European cities.

Round two could be a shocker in that I think if Madrid is still in, they're out on this round and we're off to the races for round three. If it's Tokyo still in on the other hand... the freed up Madrid votes could be very key, either with a boost to Rio or maybe giving the Tokyo bid some legs. Again, gun to my head time... bold prediction: if it's Tokyo/Chicago/Rio, I think Rio could actually win election in round two. If it's Madrid/Chicago/Rio, so long and farewell to Madrid, see you in 2024.

There's no need for round three in the Tokyo/Chicago/Rio model. On the other hand, if it's Madrid/Chicago/Rio, we're now down to Chicago and Rio and I expect it to be very VERY close, maybe decided by from 5 to 2 votes. On one hand, Rio has an interesting venue plan and history (never in South America) behind it, but the challenge of a third major hosting event in a row and what I feel are some serious questions about it's transportation infrastructure could hurt the bid. On Chicago's positive side, compact bid, a strong base of support and of course Barack Obama. On the negative, as has been stated, some questions about a stadium plan and US economic concerns are the weak points.

Bottom line: if in the hypothetical we get to Rio v. Chicago... I say Chicago in a squeaker, partially due to strength of bid and fewer concerns over preparations, partially because I think Tokyo votes might be more likely to drift to Chicago than Rio.

Obviously, no expert, just what I'm thinking.

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Madrid out in the first round. Percentages look like M<10|T<20|C35-40|R35-40

On the second ballot, the votes flock from Tokyo and either Chicago or Rio claim a second ballot majority by one or two votes. T<10|C~50|R~50

I'm not ready to name a winner yet, but it will end in "O" and be on a continent with a compass direction in the name.

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True. But including Torino in there is a bit disingenuous: only 2 candidate cities, one with an OK bid (Torino) and one with a crap one (Sion).


Yeah, but the magic number in the previous four was much higher.

2008: Beijing by 34

2006: Torino by 17

2004: Athens by 25

2002: Salt Lake by 40

I suspect this coming election won't be that big, but it could be somewhere in the middle...10 or so.

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My prediction:

First to drop will be Madrid, then Tokyo, then Rio wins by a surprising margin.


Firts cut Madrid

Second Rio

Tokyo have asian table.

I believe Tokyo's wIn

Tokyo 50~52

Chicago 48~46

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I'M HERE!! Getting my stuff ready for Koben!!

honest... I'm happy you are here.

We have some disagreements, but I have do admit I laugh a lot with some of your posts.

I was really concerned.

TG, you are here and making your luggage for Koben.

Have a nice sarcastic trip!

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