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Xu Wen-Ting

The Influence 2016 To Bids 2018?

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Oct 2nd, we will know the host city of 2016.

How much will the result influence the 2018 bids?

We could think over it carefully.

i think we should wait final 2018 bid list after Oct 2nd at earliest.

For Asia, if Tokyo got the 2016 bid, Harbin China's and PyeongChang SK's 2018 bids would become not so meaningful...

And in a similar way for Europ...

What do you think about it? :rolleyes:

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Oct 2nd, we will know the host city of 2016.

How much will the result influence the 2018 bids?

We could think over it carefully.

i think we should wait final 2018 bid list after Oct 2nd at earliest.

For Asia, if Tokyo got the 2016 bid, Harbin China's and PyeongChang SK's 2018 bids would become not so meaningful...

And in a similar way for Europ...

What do you think about it? :rolleyes:

I don't think 2016 will have an impact on 2018, except may be some last minutes bids from Spain...

Even if Tokyo is elected, PC could have a chance. But not Harbin, as too soon after Beijing.

But what could impact 2018 is the race for the SOG 2020 or 2024... and the possible Paris & Berlin Bids !!!!!

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But what could impact 2018 is the race for the SOG 2020 or 2024... and the possible Paris & Berlin Bids !!!!!

Yeah - that is the interesting point!

I suppose neither the French nor the German NOC will announce before the decision about 2018, if Paris or Berlin bid for 2020 or 2024 (although I think that both cities would be fantastic hosts for Summer Olympics), to prevent a bad impact on their bid for the Winter Games.

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Yeah - that is the interesting point!

I suppose neither the French nor the German NOC will announce before the decision about 2018, if Paris or Berlin bid for 2020 or 2024 (although I think that both cities would be fantastic hosts for Summer Olympics), to prevent a bad impact on their bid for the Winter Games.

Which perhaps makes Madrid's bid this time not so in vain. Assuming one of the Americas does get 2016, Madrid could start the ball and momentum rolling very quickly on a 2020 bid. Two of their strongest possible rivals for that, Paris and Berlin, would be pretty-well ham-strung from doing too much till the 2018 vote in Durban, and the losing 2018 bidder would have to scramble a bid quickly if they had the stomach for it again.

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Well you can also remember that a third straight bid might become tiring and stall.

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Well you can also remember that a third straight bid might become tiring and stall.

That's the risk alright.

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Count discount any influence, lets look at the past three WOG....

2004 - Rome Loses ........ Turion wins 2006

2008- Toronto Loses ...... Vancouver wins 2010

2012- Moscow Loses ...... Sochi Wins 2014

Now... maybe Jaca finally comes up with a credible bid? Or Japan comes up with a surprise winter bid? There are still many possibilities.

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Count discount any influence, lets look at the past three WOG....

2004 - Rome Loses ........ Turion wins 2006

2008- Toronto Loses ...... Vancouver wins 2010

2012- Moscow Loses ...... Sochi Wins 2014

Now... maybe Jaca finally comes up with a credible bid? Or Japan comes up with a surprise winter bid? There are still many possibilities.

mmmm...that's true, there are still many possibilities.

Many points control the game...intercontinental principle, geopolitics and so on...

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Count discount any influence, lets look at the past three WOG....

2004 - Rome Loses ........ Turion wins 2006

2008- Toronto Loses ...... Vancouver wins 2010

2012- Moscow Loses ...... Sochi Wins 2014

Now... maybe Jaca finally comes up with a credible bid? Or Japan comes up with a surprise winter bid? There are still many possibilities.

Forget about Jaca, no chance. Maybe a bigger city like Zaragoza.

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You know, I keep reading & don't understand this notion where as if a city loses & keeps on bidding, that somehow their bid will become "boring & repetitive" & therefore won't win for whatever reason.

Has this theory been proven? Have IOC members been polled for this? Have cities really been hampered by this? It would seem to be the contrary, it seems that the more some cities lobby, the better their chances in the next round.

Pyeongchang lost by only 4 votes, twice. They didn't lose by 4 in one race & then by 25 votes in the next. And Salzburg's votes increased by more than 50% their second time around. Same with Istanbul. And Paris' votes also increased from the '08 to '12 race. And Rio's 3rd attempt seems to be the "charm", since it appears that they have a very, very good shot to run-away with the 2016 Grand Prize.

Besides, how many times have I also read in these forums that a city hardly ever wins on their 1st attempt anyway. So this seems debatable & contradictory to say the least.

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Or Japan comes up with a surprise winter bid? There are still many possibilities.

Nah. Japan's had their quota of Winter Games. I mean the multiple hosting Winter countries so far are: the US, Norway, Austria, France, Italy AND Japan. The next Winter Games in Asia are due for either South Korea (2 close calls) or China. Japan shouls sit back and have Tokyo bid for 2028 -- that's the normal cycle for Asian-set Games, both S&W.

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"Japan's had their quota of Winter Games."

Agreed, but that hasn't stopped Austria & now France into throwing in their hats for yet another Winter Games. Doesn't mean that France will win though, same goes for Japan if they decide to surprise us.

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You know, I keep reading & don't understand this notion where as if a city loses & keeps on bidding, that somehow their bid will become "boring & repetitive" & therefore won't win for whatever reason.

Has this theory been proven? Have IOC members been polled for this? Have cities really been hampered by this? It would seem to be the contrary, it seems that the more some cities lobby, the better their chances in the next round.

Pyeongchang lost by only 4 votes, twice. They didn't lose by 4 in one race & then by 25 votes in the next. And Salzburg's votes increased by more than 50% their second time around. Same with Istanbul. And Paris' votes also increased from the '08 to '12 race. And Rio's 3rd attempt seems to be the "charm", since it appears that they have a very, very good shot to run-away with the 2016 Grand Prize.

Besides, how many times have I also read in these forums that a city hardly ever wins on their 1st attempt anyway. So this seems debatable & contradictory to say the least.

If the bid changes and improves then it is not a problem. But for Madrid and Pyeongchang, they just continue to build and bid, not allowing for any change in the bids they continue to present. Pyeongchang's bid for 2018 will be practically the same bid it gave for 2014 and 2010. If it gets rejected twice its very likely to be rejected again. Madrid's bid for 2020/2024 will be the same as their bid for 2012 and 2016. So if it got rejected twice its likely to get rejected again compared to a newer, fresher bid that is more appealing.

Nah. Japan's had their quota of Winter Games. I mean the multiple hosting Winter countries so far are: the US, Norway, Austria, France, Italy AND Japan. The next Winter Games in Asia are due for either South Korea (2 close calls) or China. Japan shouls sit back and have Tokyo bid for 2028 -- that's the normal cycle for Asian-set Games, both S&W.

Switzerland and Canada are also in that list.

I would say that Almaty has a very strong chance to become the next Asia WOG.

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In Pyeongchang's case, the same bid lost twice by *only* 4 votes. And more than one bid gets 'rejected' in a single race, so I wouldn't single out just one city in that aspect when there can only be just one winner at a time.

If Pyeongchang loses a 3rd consecutive time, then that theory may be more clear & especially if they lose by a much larger margin than their previous 2 attempts. But even then, it would still not be so cut-&-dry, because as they say on here, every race is different & therefore there can be different reasons every time as to why certain cities don't prevail.

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I don't know if it's just a reflection on our boredom threshholds, and our love of bid novelty, but I remember when Sochi won, many of us (and I'll admit myself included) proclaimed that Europe was out of the running for 2018. Now, it doesn't look like the non-Euro bids (PC or Changchun/Harbin) have many admirers at all, and I'd hazard a guess that Munich is probably the most favoured bid, on GamesBids at least, at the moment.

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I don't know if it's just a reflection on our boredom threshholds, and our love of bid novelty, but I remember when Sochi won, many of us (and I'll admit myself included) proclaimed that Europe was out of the running for 2018.

For many (including IOC members), Sochi is not totally in Europe... almost already in Asia....

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For many (including IOC members), Sochi is not totally in Europe... almost already in Asia....

Hmmmm. I think that's still stretching it a bit ... but, I agree that's the way the attitude seems to be playingh out.

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Switzerland and Canada are also in that list.

Yes, mea culpa. Actually, Japan, going by JJ's arithmetic, should have had "3" Winter Games now since 1940 was originally promised to Sapporo and Tokyo.

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Count discount any influence, lets look at the past three WOG....

2004 - Rome Loses ........ Turion wins 2006

2008- Toronto Loses ...... Vancouver wins 2010

2012- Moscow Loses ...... Sochi Wins 2014

Now... maybe Jaca finally comes up with a credible bid? Or Japan comes up with a surprise winter bid? There are still many possibilities.

like i always said

the Wintergames became kind of a consolation-price in the last few years

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like i always said

the Wintergames became kind of a consolation-price in the last few years

don't forget Grenoble 1968 - Lyon bid in 1968 (that was the first french bid for Summer Olympics after Paris 1924 (excluding the bid for the Equestrian games in 1956)) - I believe that Grenoble was the consolation price for France too since it lost for the first time a bid...

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It's interesting how the elections for the 1968 Winter & Summer Olympics were 3-1/2 months apart, whereas for the other times when the Winter & Summer Olympics were held in the same year, the Winter & Summer host city elections were held at the same time. Wonder what was the real reasoning for that.

Also interesting that Grenoble only had 4 years to prepare, granted the Games were smaller then, especially the Winter ones, but still, considering all other cities had between 5-6 years lead time. They must've had virtually everything in place.

And let's not forget about Albertville as a consolation prize for Paris' failed '92 bid. Considering the manipulation of you know who, of the Winter & Summer host city election being swapped to shove Paris out of the way by electing Albertville first.

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You are right FYI - I wasn't aware of this fact - that is really interesting - especially when you look on the bids for the Winter Olympics 1968:

Grenoble, France - France lost the Summer Games, but has already hosted once

Calgary, Canada - huge winter sport nation triese to get the WOG for the first time

Lahti, Finland - huge winter sport nation tries to get the WOG for the first time

Sapporo, Japan - Japan "catched up" the 1940 SOG four years earlier and now it was turn for the Winter Olympics

Oslo, Norway - much too early after 1952

Lake Placid, USA - huge winter sport nations tries to get the WOG for the third time

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You are right FYI - I wasn't aware of this fact - that is really interesting - especially when you look on the bids for the Winter Olympics 1968:

Grenoble, France - France lost the Summer Games, but has already hosted once

Calgary, Canada - huge winter sport nation triese to get the WOG for the first time

Lahti, Finland - huge winter sport nation tries to get the WOG for the first time

Sapporo, Japan - Japan "catched up" the 1940 SOG four years earlier and now it was turn for the Winter Olympics

Oslo, Norway - much too early after 1952

Lake Placid, USA - huge winter sport nations tries to get the WOG for the third time

Canada didn't become one of the big men of winter sports until the 90's.

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Harbin after a 2016 Japan win could happen. Look at Vancouver winning just 1 year after the Salt Lake Games. ( 2 North AMerican Winter Games in 8 years is astonishing).

The Salt Lake games being only a year before the 2003 IOC session made me think PeyongChang was a lock for 2010.

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Harbin after a 2016 Japan win could happen. Look at Vancouver winning just 1 year after the Salt Lake Games. ( 2 North AMerican Winter Games in 8 years is astonishing).

The Salt Lake games being only a year before the 2003 IOC session made me think PeyongChang was a lock for 2010.

Welcome to the world of trying to make sense of Olympics bids Augie!

:P

Actually, when it came to 2010, PyeongChang was the dark horse that nearly took everyone by surprise - Vancouver was a generally accepted favourite. For 2014 PC was considered more of the frontrunner, and got steamrolled.

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