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What City Will Receive More African Votes?


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The shortlisting process for 2004 was much more political and less technical than it is now: it was based on the Evaluation Commission report not on a technical report by experts.

sounds pretty technical and experty to me.

IOC EVALUATION COMMISSION FOR THE GAMES

OF THE XXVIII OLYMPIAD

IOC Thomas Bach, Chairman

Chiharu Igaya

Henry Edmund Olufemi Adefope

Fernando Ferreira Lima Bello

Athlete

IFS

Mark Tewksbury

Denis Oswald

Hein Verbruggen

Els Van Breda Vriesman

NOCs Carol Anne Letheren

Julio Cesar Maglione

Mingde Tu

Specialists Francisco Elizalde - Finance

Charles H. Battle - Former Organizing Committee

Petter Ronningen - Former Organizing Committee

Olav Myrholt - Environmental Protection

IOC - Candidate city coordination

Gilbert Felli, Sports Director

Pere Miró, Director, NOC Relations

Jacqueline Barrett, Head of Department,

Candidate City Relations

Lyanne Millhouse, Secretary

Anders Ronningen, Assistant

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Why exactly would Kip Keino or the Kenyans cede to South Africa when a couple of years ago they were encouraged to go for the games on the advice of Dr Rogge ? conventional thinking is South Ameria will stage the games before Africa.

Well, Rogge actually was anything but encouraging for Kenya to bid -if anything, his comments on their "surprise" bid plan was pretty luke-warm by Rogge standards:

Kenya's surprise bid for 2016 Olympics receives mixed reactions

January 16, 2005

Kenya's surprise announcement this week to bid for the right to stage the 2016 Olympic Games has received mixed reactions from sports analysts and commentators in Nairobi.

The announcement was made by the country's Sports Minister Ochilo Ayacko, in the presence of visiting International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Jacques Rogge during the official opening of the National Olympic Committee of Kenya's headquarters in Nairobi last Wednesday.

"I want to say without batting an eyelid that when I look at our ability to get medals, we can host these Games in 2016 and we are serious about it," Ayacko said.

Sports commentators and officials have cautiously welcomed the announcement. Many of them note the East African nation has got no modern facilities to stage Olympics while others argue that 2016 is still far and Kenya has chance to improve its infrastructure.

Commentators are also asking whether Kenya really believes it has the infrastructure in terms of communications, hotels and public transportation to host the Games.

Besides infrastructure, they said there are also likely to be serious questions about security if Kenya's bid is to be formalized.

"The minister embarrassed us all by telling the world, in front of a perplexed International Olympic Committee President Jacques Rogge, which Kenya would bid for the 2016 Olympic Games. This is not possible," commented Elias Makori, a sports editor with one of the leading dailies in Kenya.

However, Mickey Weche, Kenya's former national football coach, said Kenya can host Games of such magnitude if proper financial resources can be channeled toward sports development in the country.

"Kenya can undoubtedly hold the Olympic Games successfully. Considering the fact Kenya has produced some of the best athletes in the region, the event will boost the sportsmanship in the country and African region at large. I would suggest that 2016 Olympics be co-hosted by Kenya together with its neighbors," said Weche.

Rogge, who was in Kenya for a four-day visit to mark the 50th anniversary of Kenya joining the Olympic movement, pledges total support from the IOC to help Kenya prepare the bid.

However, the IOC president said Kenya would have to make big infrastructure improvements for its bid to be taken seriously and a successful bid would require the commitment of vast tracts of land the Kenyan government does not currently have available.

"I was very pleased to hear the minister in charge of public works say that more land will be made available for sports. Now Kenya wants to host the Olympic Games. That will require a lot of land, Mr. Minister," Rogge said.

Analysts said building new venues for the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing alone will cost about 2 billion US dollars.

And considering that Beijing already has several venues ready and that Kenya will need to construct all of its venues for the 2016 Games, the costs of venue construction alone will be more than 25.6 billion US dollars.

Greece says it spent 15.23 billion US dollars on last year's Olympic Games and that does not include the cost of a new underground railway and a tram system.

The Kenyan government earns about 2.8 billion dollars in revenue each year and the country is 13 times poorer than Greece.

Even if Kenya does not win, billions of money would have to be spent just for the bid to reach a stage at which the IOC could vote on it.

Kenya has only two large stadiums, which have fallen into disrepair, as have the country's other main sports venues.

While few doubt the right of an African country to stage the Games, virtually no country outside South Africa is considered to have the infrastructure necessary and the South Africans are unlikely to be interested as they will host the 2010 soccer World Cup.

People Daily

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Interesting as it is to speculate, I don't see how any of us can really forecast the way African IOC members will vote. Perhaps some will be excited about Chicago. Perhaps some will vote for Chicago because they don't want Rio to win. On the other hand, perhaps some will genuinely embrace Rio's bid on its own terms and not worry about the effect this will have on a future African bid. Finally, it's entirely possible that some of them will take a shine to Madrid or Tokyo. Personally, I don't see golf or Tiger Woods as winning or losing votes. All these geopolitics seem like an over-simplification.

Incidentally, I think the IOC is even more eager to see the Games in Africa than South America. The second any African city comes up with a very high-quality bid (not necessarily the best bid) I believe they will win. From this perspective, it really doesn't matter if Rio wins 2016 or not. Africa's turn WILL come.

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Incidentally, I think the IOC is even more eager to see the Games in Africa than South America. The second any African city comes up with a very high-quality bid (not necessarily the best bid) I believe they will win. From this perspective, it really doesn't matter if Rio wins 2016 or not. Africa's turn WILL come.

See, I think it's the opposite. South America has the potential. Africa, apart from, arguably, South Africa, does not. If people think Rio is a risk, anywhere in Africa is a risk of an order of magnitude bigger.

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However, just like South Africa is really the only African nation with a realistic shot, Brazil is really the only country in South America that can host. (Argentina is just not viable.) The difference is that, historically/politically/economically speaking, Africa has been more marginalized than South America. For this reason I think the IOC would WANT an African Games even more than a South American Games. Granted, they aren't going to give the Games to a country that isn't prepared. It is obviously very possible that South America may host before Africa does. I'm talking about the IOC's wish-list -- their pipe dreams. IF -- note the emphasis on "if" -- Africa delivers a high-quality bid, I think they will embrace it with even more zeal than they would a South American bid.

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However, just like South Africa is really the only African nation with a realistic shot, Brazil is really the only country in South America that can host. (Argentina is just not viable.) The difference is that, historically/politically/economically speaking, Africa has been more marginalized than South America. For this reason I think the IOC would WANT an African Games even more than a South American Games. Granted, they aren't going to give the Games to a country that isn't prepared. It is obviously very possible that South America may host before Africa does. I'm talking about the IOC's wish-list -- their pipe dreams. IF -- note the emphasis on "if" -- Africa delivers a high-quality bid, I think they will embrace it with even more zeal than they would a South American bid.

You could say that's exactly what they did with Rio - put it on the shortlist even though it only straddled the benchmark and was even behind one pother city that was canned.

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sounds pretty technical and experty to me.

IOC EVALUATION COMMISSION FOR THE GAMES

OF THE XXVIII OLYMPIAD

IOC Thomas Bach, Chairman

Chiharu Igaya

Henry Edmund Olufemi Adefope

Fernando Ferreira Lima Bello

Athlete

IFS

Mark Tewksbury

Denis Oswald

Hein Verbruggen

Els Van Breda Vriesman

NOCs Carol Anne Letheren

Julio Cesar Maglione

Mingde Tu

Specialists Francisco Elizalde - Finance

Charles H. Battle - Former Organizing Committee

Petter Ronningen - Former Organizing Committee

Olav Myrholt - Environmental Protection

IOC - Candidate city coordination

Gilbert Felli, Sports Director

Pere Miró, Director, NOC Relations

Jacqueline Barrett, Head of Department,

Candidate City Relations

Lyanne Millhouse, Secretary

Anders Ronningen, Assistant

Oh come on Mo, you know better than this.

How can you compare a 4-page evaluation to the technical assessment nowadays condcuted by the college of experts evaluating the applicant cities?

The 2004 EC Report provides very little details and you know it.

Just look at the Accommodation and Transport section for Cape Town: good basis but a lot to do -> would have probably had a good mark but with a rather high uncertainty degree in an applicant city report. The number of existing rooms is not even mentioned...

Point is: the applicant city report provides grades compared to a threshold thus allowing for a more technical evalution than the Evaluation Commission Report which back then was light (cannot be compared to the current EC report) and did not contain any grades nor recommendation for the IOC Selection College to pick the finalist cities (even before the 2004 bid books were given back to the IOC every one knew that there would at least be Cape Town, a South-American city and at least 2 European cities among the finalist).

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You could say that's exactly what they did with Rio - put it on the shortlist even though it only straddled the benchmark and was even behind one pother city that was canned.

Agreed. I suspect the same thing would happen with even more force w/ a quality African bid. That's all I'm saying.

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Agreed. I suspect the same thing would happen with even more force w/ a quality African bid. That's all I'm saying.

And I'm just saying they're not going to hold-off going for a viable South American bid when there's been one presented, on the off-chance a viable African bid might possibly surface in four, ten, fifty or a hundred years time.

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And I'm just saying they're not going to hold-off going for a viable South American bid when there's been one presented, on the off-chance a viable African bid might possibly surface in four, ten, fifty or a hundred years time.

I never said the IOC would hold off for an African bid -- to the contrary. This thread is about who the African IOC members are likely to vote for to host in 2016. My previous post argues that it is entirely possible that African IOC members will evaluate Rio 2016 on its own merits without worrying about any impact on a future African bid. Others have suggested they will vote for Chicago to try to help the prospects of a future African Games. I don't necessarily agree. Regardless of what happens with 2016, I still think the IOC will jump at the prospect of a quality African bid whenever it comes along -- even if that happens to be sooner rather than later. The success of a hypothetical future African bid is not contingent on Rio's failure to win the 2016 Games. I wouldn't discount the possibility of some African IOC members voting for Rio.

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I never said the IOC would hold off for an African bid -- to the contrary. This thread is about who the African IOC members are likely to vote for to host in 2016. My previous post argues that it is entirely possible that African IOC members will evaluate Rio 2016 on its own merits without worrying about any impact on a future African bid. Others have suggested they will vote for Chicago to try to help the prospects of a future African Games. I don't necessarily agree. Regardless of what happens with 2016, I still think the IOC will jump at the prospect of a quality African bid whenever it comes along -- even if that happens to be sooner rather than later. The success of a hypothetical future African bid is not contingent on Rio's failure to win the 2016 Games. I wouldn't discount the possibility of some African IOC members voting for Rio.

Specially those from regions of Africa that Brazil has huge investments... The south-south relations of Brazil can boost African votes in favor of Rio...

Africa was the continent where Brazil opened more embassies in the last 7 years according to official numbers and media. This ocurred because of active relationship between Brazilian and african governments.

Google it and discover more.

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WEell it looks like the US is takinbg the lobbying to Africa.

31/08/2009

In sports news, a group of Americans are in Cameroon to seek the county’s support for its bid to host the 2016 Olympic Games.

The team is led by a former two-time gold medallist in the 400m hurdles, called EDWIN MOSES.

In the Bamboutous Division, Youths of the Division have praised government for renovating the municipal stadium in Mbouda. The word of praise was pronounced last week end during the finals of the Bamboutous divisional holiday championship, dubbed FESTI-FOOT. The event which was chaired by the Minister of Sports and Physical Education, Michel Zoa, took place under the patronage of Minister Emmanuel Nganou Njoumessi, Deputy Secretary General at the P.M’s office.

RTV

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The Rio bid is convincing. Its a symbol of the developing world.

Its the next step in the india-south africa-brazil developing world momentum. delhi 2010, south africa 2010, brazil 2014, rio 2016...

I dont think african ioc member will be voting based on a possible 2020 african bid.

i suspect most africans voted London as I had predicted.

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