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Apparently Samaranch Jr. is saying that Madrid knows it has locked up between 25% and 50% of the IOC vote. Two questions: 1.) Is it possible that an IOC member would pledge to support one bid while secretly voting for another? 2.) Will it hurt Madrid's bid for Samaranch to say that they are such strong contenders? In other words, does it sound presumptuous? Here's an article confirming Samaranch's comments:

http://www.topnews.in/samaranch-jr-madrid-...c-votes-2218912

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Apparently Samaranch Jr. is saying that Madrid knows it has locked up between 25% and 50% of the IOC vote. Two questions: 1.) Is it possible that an IOC member would pledge to support one bid while secretly voting for another? 2.) Will it hurt Madrid's bid for Samaranch to say that they are such strong contenders? In other words, does it sound presumptuous? Here's an article confirming Samaranch's comments:

http://www.topnews.in/samaranch-jr-madrid-...c-votes-2218912

Actually, this has been the tone all over the race from Madrid bid organizers... I have been always feel shocked about it and therefore I tend to think that they have some ace up in the sleeve... I can't think in any other reason but something we don't know. It is not actually arrogant, but so self confident that it makes me think it's illogical if they have the same information as we have... you know what I mean?

By the way, I would like to ask what they exactly mean when they say "locked". Is this "paid"???? How will they explain if they get just 10 votes or so in the first round??

I just don't wanna believe that they are so ignorant and prefer to think they keep a secret.

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Actually, this has been the tone all over the race from Madrid bid organizers... I have been always feel shocked about it and therefore I tend to think that they have some ace up in the sleeve... I can't think in any other reason but something we don't know. It is not actually arrogant, but so self confident that it makes me think it's illogical if they have the same information as we have... you know what I mean?

By the way, I would like to ask what they exactly mean when they say "locked". Is this "paid"???? How will they explain if they get just 10 votes or so in the first round??

I just don't wanna believe that they are so ignorant and prefer to think they keep a secret.

Either that or they are playing hardball and sending a powerful message to the other bidders. Madrid always knew that this bid is a tough one to win. The Samaranch family, especially the old man, knows that continental rotation is a fact. Their statement basically shows that they believe they will be on the 2nd round.

So, for Madrid to have bid this time they might be working with either one of the scenarios below:

1. Madrid cuts a deal with one of the favourites (Rio and Chicago) and may hope for one of them to fail midway and collect their votes to win.

2. Madrid is bidding to show itself strong enough to be the bid to be for 2020.

In both cases, alliances will play a big part. That's pretty much Samaranch's game.

My bet is that Samaranch and Havelange will team up to beat Chicago now and, then, to secure Madrid later. I ahve read some interesting articles and interviews about the two of them and they seem very close.

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Yeah! i do agree with you Cinderella. I have never understood why Madrid's Major tried to bid for this olympic games, so close to london 2012. He is one of the possible candidates to became the leader of the conservative party in Spain, and probably became the president of Spain in a future. So, know if he wins, if madrid wins, will be a major achivement... if madrid loses again... it will be a major disaster for him. So why to put yourself in this situation when you got so much to loose or win??? Is he mad??? Or does he knows something that the rest doesn't know?

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Perhaps they do have a lot of votes, in the first round (which is, afterall, what this article is about).

Maybe some of these 25-50% are thinking let's not embarrass the Samaranchs, make sure Madrid gets through to the second round, and after that Madrid can fall more gracefully by the wayside. Tokyo, would of course, be the collateral damage in this scenario, but crucially the two frontrunners wouldn't be harmed.

Who knows? We can speculate all day about these things...

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Either that or they are playing hardball and sending a powerful message to the other bidders. Madrid always knew that this bid is a tough one to win. The Samaranch family, especially the old man, knows that continental rotation is a fact. Their statement basically shows that they believe they will be on the 2nd round.

So, for Madrid to have bid this time they might be working with either one of the scenarios below:

1. Madrid cuts a deal with one of the favourites (Rio and Chicago) and may hope for one of them to fail midway and collect their votes to win.

2. Madrid is bidding to show itself strong enough to be the bid to be for 2020.

In both cases, alliances will play a big part. That's pretty much Samaranch's game.

My bet is that Samaranch and Havelange will team up to beat Chicago now and, then, to secure Madrid later. I ahve read some interesting articles and interviews about the two of them and they seem very close.

Hum, that's very interesting aluz... But I can't help but wondering how will face Madrid three bids in a row and become the winner in 2020. It sounds a little Istanbul way of bidding and this is not promising at all.

On the other hand, Madrid and Rio actually do have an agreement (at least announced by Lula and King Juan Carlos) but I can't see the advantage for Madrid, because it's very unlikely for Rio to fall in the first round.

I insist: Madrid be should be keeping some information that we don't know. If not, they will result ridiculous in front of Olympic world's eyes.

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The idea of a Havelange/Samaranch united front is pretty scary. Rogge has been quoted as saying that the IOC cares most about the leadership of the bid and whether it can be trusted. That would seem to speak directly about Havelange. Add in Samaranch's backing and Rio would appear unbeatable. Especially if Madrid really can transfer somewhere between 25 and 50% of the vote over to Rio.

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The idea of a Havelange/Samaranch united front is pretty scary. Rogge has been quoted as saying that the IOC cares most about the leadership of the bid and whether it can be trusted. That would seem to speak directly about Havelange. Add in Samaranch's backing and Rio would appear unbeatable. Especially if Madrid really can transfer somewhere between 25 and 50% of the vote over to Rio.

Samaranch and Havelange may have cooked something up of their own, but the timing and manner of the Obama trip give rise to justifiable suspicions that the decision has been cooked in favor of Chicago.

I wrote something along the lines of the post below in another of the Madrid threads yesterday, after the Obama trip was announced: the man is incapable of doing anything without a calculus about his political benefit, so a lot of people who know how his mind works are assuming the deal is done in Chicago's favor--in other words, the fix is in (Obama can open up the US taxpayers' checkbook to a number of IOC constituencies to secure support or dangle the prospect of other forms of US support for IOC voting members or member countries). The manner of the Obama trip is telling. He is not arriving with enough time to lobby (leaving that to those old IOC insiders Opra Winfrey and his wife, Michelle...LOL); he arrives just in time to grandstand as the leader of the Chicago delegation (never mind that in Chicago less than 50% support the games in 2016).

The options are: 1) the fix IS indeed in and the deal is done and Obama reaps the benefit of seeming to have secured the games for Chicago (especially valuable as his policy initiaves are stalled or opposed in the US and his approval ratings have dipped below 50%); or 2) if Chicago wins legitimately (almost no one will believe it, given the conjectural nature of the Chicago bid!), he basks in the reflected glory of the victory by having been present; or 3) even if Chicago loses, his excuse would be that he made a "quick" trip for moral support, that he didn't really have the time to lobby, so no loss of face for his efforts.

In any case, this is openly being commented in the US press:

"Chicago Is Getting the Olympics [Ramesh Ponnuru, The Corner blog, National Review Online]

"Some people seem to think that the president is taking time away from more important things to go to Copenhagen to lobby for Chicago to get the 2016 games. They're wrong. He is taking time away from more important things to go get the credit for bringing the Olympics to Chicago. Does anyone seriously believe that the president would take a quick trip to Copenhagen with the possibility of coming back empty-handed? If the president is going, it's because he knows that Chicago has already won. He's going."

09/28 12:40 PMShare

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/\ Oh yeah, and I saw three UFOs converging over my roof yesterday. I thought u were more intelligent than that.

How do you think he got to where he is? Yes, part of that is calculation. Being shrewd and knowing where to invest the least of your time to get the greatest result. That's cunning...NOT stupidity.

U forget the devious ways in which Samaranch hijacked Paris' bid for 1992.

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/\ Oh yeah, and I saw three UFOs converging over my roof yesterday. I thought u were more intelligent than that.

How do you think he got to where he is? Yes, part of that is calculation. Being shrewd and knowing where to invest the least of your time to get the greatest result. That's cunning...NOT stupidity.

U forget the devious ways in which Samaranch hijacked Paris' bid for 1992.

This is pretty cut/paste, almost exact wording that the Republican blogs and editorial writers are using against Obama for any number of different U.S. domestic issues. I really don't understand where this enemy of my enemy is my friend concept is arising - ridiculous political attacks from ridiculous Republicans is one thing. Having those same attacks repeated by competitors from other countries is rather surprising and discouraging.

You're associating yourself with a group that fewer than 25% of Americans want anything to do with - not only that, but the party of George W. Bush. Really?!?!

CHItown '16

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Well, some bits and pieces.

1. I have read the Obama "only going if Chicago wins theory", but I think the following theory is more plausible: this was set from the beginning with the Obama-drama being solely a publicity stunt to draw attention to the Chicago bid. It wouldn't be good for Obama to be the only Head of State not to go, when one of the cities bidding is his home town. If he did not go, he could be blamed for it. With a 5-hour appearance he has arguments to justify a loss. I can imagine his spech: "I did accept to go at the last minute because the bid was in serious jeopardy, but I could not lobby as they wanted because I have more pressing issues at home." He has a way out for losing.

2. A while ago, Havelange gave an interview in Brazil and he said something very interesting about an IOC president election in 1980. He said that he came to the winning candidate with a piece of paper and told him: "I have 42 people here who signed this list confirming that they are voting for you". The next day, the new president was crowned with 43 votes. In 1980 Havelange had already presided over FIFA for 6 years and was a member of the IOC for 17.

Conspiracy theories...

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Interesting quote I came across in an Agence France Presse report:

...

They may be counting on the magic of Samaranch to deliver them the Games but as one source close to the IOC put it to AFP in Berlin: "Madrid seem to think that they have the votes in the bag, which I can tell you is simply not the case and is a huge error on their part."

...

AFP

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...the timing and manner of the Obama trip give rise to justifiable suspicions that the decision has been cooked in favor of Chicago ... Does anyone seriously believe that the president would take a quick trip to Copenhagen with the possibility of coming back empty-handed? If the president is going, it's because he knows that Chicago has already won. He's going."

09/28 12:40 PMShare

You have got to be kidding me. Please don't make accusations that have no facts whatsoever to support them. This is pure fiction. Obama is going to Copehagen out of respect for the Olympic Movement and the international community. He believes not just in the city of Chicago, but the spirit of the bid -- a desire to reach out to the world with sensitivity and warmth, embracing and celebrating diversity. He is taking a huge risk because the GAMES MATTER TO US IN THE UNITED STATES.

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Apparently Samaranch Jr. is saying that Madrid knows it has locked up between 25% and 50% of the IOC vote. Two questions: 1.) Is it possible that an IOC member would pledge to support one bid while secretly voting for another? 2.) Will it hurt Madrid's bid for Samaranch to say that they are such strong contenders? In other words, does it sound presumptuous? Here's an article confirming Samaranch's comments:

http://www.topnews.in/samaranch-jr-madrid-...c-votes-2218912

In the same interview with Samaranch jr. he also said that he knew that all those IOC members who pledged support to Madrid, dit the same thing with other cities.

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Some IOC members will say they will vote for a city just to keep them happy. At the end of the day the vote is secret and we will never really know who has voted for who. I think Samaranch Jr is in dream land!

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