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Does Munich 2018 Have Any Impact On Madrid 2016?


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I don't necessarily expect this thread to gather a lot of steam, but I thought I'd ask the question anyway.

How will a very attractive bid from Munich for 2018 affect Madrid's chances at 2016? Not only do they have to deal with London 2012 and Sochi 2014, there's a promising potential European host for 2018 as well. At the very least it seems likely that Madrid could lose votes from German supporters. For that matter, if Annecy is really serious about their bid, Madrid might lose French support as well. Thoughts?

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Hmmm. Not an easy one actually. It’s hard to make too many close comparisons and links between winter and summer bids. Some of us deny there’s any link between WOG and SOG bids.

Probably the simplest factor would be that a Madrid win for 2016 (though I think that’s unlikely) would be a big blow for the Euro 2018 bids. That said, I doubt that too many IOC members would base their votes for either race on how it would effect the other.

If the 2018 race had any bearing on potential summer bids, I’d say it’d be more on how it would impact 2020. The Europeans might be more inclined to go for Munich, or Annecy, say, in order to block Berlin or Paris from the next summer race. Similarly, I don’t think Madrid can automatically count on getting the majority of support from the Euro block for the same reason – their potential rivals for 2020 may well be looking ahead.

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IMO, the problem for Madrid 2016 is not Munich 2018, but (who knows?) Berlin/Paris/Rome 2020. There are many European major cities interested in bidding in 2020 and they will act according to the final decision in Copenhagen. If Rio wins, then Capetown has nothing to do in 2020 and the Games will potentially go back to Europe with a serious fight between major capitals. If Chicago wins, then Capetown would be the favourite for 2020. But if Madrid wins (unlikely, yes), then the Games will not come back to Europe until 2028 at least. Therefore I think there are many European voters not interested in awarding Madrid as many future contenders just will see their options being blew up for years.

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IMO, the problem for Madrid 2016 is not Munich 2018, but (who knows?) Berlin/Paris/Rome 2020. There are many European major cities interested in bidding in 2020 and they will act according to the final decision in Copenhagen. If Rio wins, then Capetown has nothing to do in 2020 and the Games will potentially go back to Europe with a serious fight between major capitals. If Chicago wins, then Capetown would be the favourite for 2020. But if Madrid wins (unlikely, yes), then the Games will not come back to Europe until 2028 at least. Therefore I think there are many European voters not interested in awarding Madrid as many future contenders just will see their options being blew up for years.

So... the best outcome for the Europeans would be voting for Rio. I never looked at it that way before, but it does make sense.

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So... the best outcome for the Europeans would be voting for Rio. I never looked at it that way before, but it does make sense.

Well, I really don't expect not a single vote from Europe to Madrid. Not even the portuguese as it could be reasonable, having Rio also on stage :) On the other side, I think Africa will vote for Madrid for the same reason, maybe part of the Asians too.

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IMO, the problem for Madrid 2016 is not Munich 2018, but (who knows?) Berlin/Paris/Rome 2020. There are many European major cities interested in bidding in 2020 and they will act according to the final decision in Copenhagen. If Rio wins, then Capetown has nothing to do in 2020 and the Games will potentially go back to Europe with a serious fight between major capitals. If Chicago wins, then Capetown would be the favourite for 2020. But if Madrid wins (unlikely, yes), then the Games will not come back to Europe until 2028 at least. Therefore I think there are many European voters not interested in awarding Madrid as many future contenders just will see their options being blew up for years.

I agree... European members would try to protect 2020 or 2024 (and in case... also 2018) for european bids.... and would probably support Rio... an emerging country in the Olympic Host cities !!!!

I explain !

- If Rio wins 2016, it is almost sure that the US would host 2020 (18 years after Salt Lake, 24 years after Atlanta.....)... and that would guarantee 2024 for Europe (Paris or Berlin)

- If Madrid (or Tokyo) wins 2016, it is also sure the US would host 2020... but 2024 would be there to open the olympic cities family to South America or South Africa... Europe would wait 2028 !!!!!

- If Chicago wins 2016... it would be more open.... Europe, South America & South Africa would fight for 2020 & 2024 (with more chance with emerging country for 2020) !!!!!

So Europe would balance between Chicago & Rio.... That's why everything is opened in the first rounds of voting... if ballots would go equaly between both we could have surprises !

Back to our subject... I don't think there would have impact between european SOG and european WOG... nothing connect ! Exept if a same country is bidding for both... so for the 2018 race, supporters of SOG in Berlin would probably vote Annecy and suppoters of SOG in Paris would vote Annecy......;

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It's great to hear everybody's opinions.

I can definitely see where SOG bids would have greatest impact on SOG bids and WOG bids would have greatest impact on WOG bids. It does seem to me, however, that there is at least a little cross over effect.

Rio 2016 would definitely be a big help for Europe in 2020. I don't see Rio 2016 helping a U.S. bid in 2020. Frankly, no matter who wins, I doubt the U.S. will bid for 2020. I think they're putting all their eggs in Chicago's basket. I wouldn't expect another U.S. bid anytime too soon. When they do bid again, I think its most likely to be for a SOG rather than a WOG.

Looking at the IOC membership, it's difficult finding someone who has a strong incentive for voting for Madrid. (This has nothing to do with the quality of the bid or the city.) European members? Not likely if they're gunning for 2020 or 2024. North America? No. South America? No. Africa? It seems more probable that they would vote for Chicago, but they might go for Madrid. Anybody other than Rio. Asia? I don't really see it. It makes more sense that Asia would support Tokyo or either of the bids from the Americas.

Thanks, all, for weighing in....

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When they do bid again, I think its most likely to be for a SOG rather than a WOG.

Uhmmm...I think not. Forgot to mention this in my LA-25th anniv post, but the Reno-Tahoe Winter Games Coalition had a table at the event last Saturday night; Chicago 2016 didn't (nor were there official Anchorage or Denver teams). Interm USOC president Natalie Streeter was there; and of course the 2-LA based US-IOC members.

So I'll let you draw your own conclusions... ;)

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Interesting info, Baron.

Reno/Tahoe interest, however, doesn't automatically translate to USOC backing, despite the presence of Streeter et al.

No...but apparently they are ahead in the schmoozing/lobbying game.

What do they say? The early bird gets the worm. ;)

And no Boise team either...Thank God!!

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I

Looking at the IOC membership, it's difficult finding someone who has a strong incentive for voting for Madrid. (This has nothing to do with the quality of the bid or the city.) European members? Not likely if they're gunning for 2020 or 2024. North America? No. South America? No. Africa? It seems more probable that they would vote for Chicago, but they might go for Madrid. Anybody other than Rio. Asia? I don't really see it. It makes more sense that Asia would support Tokyo or either of the bids from the Americas.

Thanks, all, for weighing in....

Well, we'd need to work hard through the whole list in order to make a reasonable prediction... I guess Madrid will have some of the European votes which are not planned to have intention to host in the future (i.e. the two votes from Greece, the one from Cyprus, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg and maybe Austria, Hungary, Ireland and Croatia). Moreover, I see the three Brits voting for Madrid because they have all his job done and would not care where the Olympics are hosted after his time. Anyway, they can also send the vote to the other side of the Atlantic and support Chicago for the so-called anglo-sympathy. Both things would not be surprising.

On the other side, there are some other countries like Switzerland or Sweden with several votes that would rather prefer to wait for supporting Germany or France in 2020. That's why I guess they will not vote for Madrid this time, nor Germany, France or Italy for obvious reasons. The Dutchs will split the vote for sure between Madrid and Chicago.

Let's also remember that Latin America is not just South America. I can't see any strong reason for Central America countries to support Rio. There are very strong links between Spain and that area. Also I can't imagine Argentina voting for Rio as Buenos Aires is the only real contender for the city to host in a future.

What I just want to say with all that stuff is that the list is long and every member can have very personal (even intimate) reasons to support. HRH Nora of Liechtenstein actually lives in Madrid, for example. Lambis Nikolau will need to arrange his 2005 mistake...

It's not written yet, but it's funny to predict :)

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Here in Germany we are aware, that Madrid 2016 would kill Munich 2018, so we really hope, that Madrid does not succeed. BUT Munich is not a warm-up bid for a possible SOG bid. This is the best German bid for decades. Berlin would struggle to get nationwide support and Hamburg cant even host the Universade.

I think only the Italians (Rom), the French (Paris) and the Turks (Istanbul) have own SOG ambitions.

EDIT: And if we can trust Jensen the Dutch have also ambitions to host SOG.

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I think only the Italians (Rom), the French (Paris) and the Turks (Istanbul) have own SOG ambitions.

France and Paris have no more ambition of hosting SOG in the future than Berlin .... No one are working on it... No plans on their ways !!!

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France and Paris have no more ambition of hosting SOG in the future than Berlin .... No one are working on it... No plans on their ways !!!
not yet planning but to say they have no ambition in hosting future SOG is a complete mis-statement. Paris if it decides will certainly bid for 2024 since that is the centennial of their second hosting. they may not be publicly working on one bid right now but that doesn't mean the Parisian government is doing nothing.
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If Mem tells you there is no concrete / active plan for a future Paris bid you should believe him... The Parisian government is doing nothing at the moment.

Not saying it won't happen, just that there is nothing going on at the moment. With Annecy bidding for 2018, a French bid for 2020 is highly unlikely and a potential Paris 2024 bid is premature at the moment.

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I am Amazed at the thinking in regards to what voters may do or not do. Any Anglo sympathy for Chicago I think went out the window with a couple of recent moves by the USOC. Messing with an Olympics speciality Channel on a Cable System that will never be a bidder for US broadcast rights is suicidal. It is one thing for the English to be generally dismissive of adjusting timing of events to suit the bigger private funder of the IOC it is another to actually jeopardize that Golden Goose that funds many of these sports federals that don't necessarily go by Nationalist or Geopolitical lines.

Two important votes as presidents for international federations are indeed from Africa. The IAAF and Fina Presidents are African. What would their interest be ? Making more Money with an Americas staged games or Blocking for Capetown 2020 ? They can go with more cash in Both Chicago and Rio because both present great timezones for US TV and by extension US sponsorship.

The vote from Africa can certainly go either way easily on simple Money terms for the interests of Africans that indeed may not be in Capetown 2020's interests.

It is very apparent that the USOC is intent on bidding on the SOGs until they get them. There has been no American Bid for the Winter Games since the "successful" 2002 Salt Lake City bid and the USOC has basically stated there will be no bid for 2018. The USOC is taking a Summer Games or nothing stance. I would think Ms. Streeter would be at LA 25 simply as it is a defining moment in IOC history that came because LA 84 saved the Olympics. Certainly a Huge deal for the USOC.

Lake Tahoe 2018 there ? well whats is a drive to the other end of the state to lobby to hopefully change the minds of the USOC membership that would probably be at this gathering ? I know one of the top executives for LA 84 was an executive for Coca Cola and was recently running a Ice Skating Facility in Lake Tahoe so he could be at LA 25 as well lobbying for Tahoe and celebrating an achievement few thought possible for the Olympics in the Early 1980s which he was a big part of.

As to the Original Question Munich effecting Madrid . Munich does not effect Madrid as much as London 2012 and Sochi 2014 as those are certain games not a projected bid that is not certain to win. There will be no staging of the SOGs twice in a row in Europe in the age of Billion Dollar US TV contracts simply because the value to advertisers goes way down and that hurts the US Rights Holder who pays more then the rest of the world combined for TV rights. The IOC has reminded the membership of that by putting off 2014 and 2016 US tv rights talks. As soon as that was done you might as well that said Madrid Forget about 2016.

As to Rio 2016 spoiling a possible Capetown 2020 ? Well logically it would to a degree but lets think of it . London 1948 followed by Helsinki 1952 . Same continent for 1948 and 1952 not two different continents like you have with South America and Africa. Capetown's chances may indeed be boasted by a World Cup hosting next year and if it is a great success. I am sure it will be.

The idea that there has not been back to back to back hosting of Sog and WOGs is pretty much void when you think of SOG 1976 to Wog 1980 to SOG 1984 to Wog 1988. all in North America. Also consider that Europe will have hosted 4 OGs between 2004 and 2014 and it could be 2016 to 2026 that shifts it to Asia , Africa and South America with room to spare for America and Europe. 2018 would be 20 year the winter games were away from Asia While Europe and NA would have had an uninterupted run from 2002 to 2014.

Jim jones

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Lake Tahoe 2018 there ? well whats is a drive to the other end of the state to lobby to hopefully change the minds of the USOC membership that would probably be at this gathering ? I know one of the top executives for LA 84 was an executive for Coca Cola and was recently running a Ice Skating Facility in Lake Tahoe so he could be at LA 25 as well lobbying for Tahoe and celebrating an achievement few thought possible for the Olympics in the Early 1980s which he was a big part of.

Of course. But the fact that a still a-borning idea made a presence, paid for a 'bronze' partnership-table, to my mind certainly signifies their intentions...more so than Anchorage or Denver, the only other possible viable WOG wannabees.

I would think Ms. Streeter would be at LA 25 simply as it is a defining moment in IOC history that came because LA 84 saved the Olympics. Certainly a Huge deal for the USOC.

Again, of course. And they took great pains to introduce her as the 'interim' president of the USOC -- and she didn't even take the podium like de Frantz and Uebe did.

One can spin anything the way they want...

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The idea that there has not been back to back to back hosting of Sog and WOGs is pretty much void when you think of SOG 1976 to Wog 1980 to SOG 1984 to Wog 1988. all in North America. Also consider that Europe will have hosted 4 OGs between 2004 and 2014 and it could be 2016 to 2026 that shifts it to Asia , Africa and South America with room to spare for America and Europe. 2018 would be 20 year the winter games were away from Asia While Europe and NA would have had an uninterupted run from 2002 to 2014.

Jim jones

Back to back SOG/WOG on the same continent is not an issue. It's when you start thinking about London 2012, Sochi 2014, Madrid 2016?, Munich 2018? that it starts looking lopsided. Munich 2018 alone would have no bearing on Madrid. But for somebody who is excited about Munich 2018, they have to consider London and Sochi and say, "Whoa, 4 European Games in a row aren't going to happen." Don't get me wrong -- I'm not saying Munich 2018 is a major issue for Madrid. I'm just saying it's one more log on the pile.

In terms of how anybody will or won't vote, all I'm saying is that it is difficult to pick out a group that has strong reasons to support Madrid. I'm certainly not going to argue about the USOC making problems for Chicago -- they have.

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Back to back SOG/WOG on the same continent is not an issue. It's when you start thinking about London 2012, Sochi 2014, Madrid 2016?, Munich 2018? that it starts looking lopsided. Munich 2018 alone would have no bearing on Madrid. But for somebody who is excited about Munich 2018, they have to consider London and Sochi and say, "Whoa, 4 European Games in a row aren't going to happen." Don't get me wrong -- I'm not saying Munich 2018 is a major issue for Madrid. I'm just saying it's one more log on the pile.

In terms of how anybody will or won't vote, all I'm saying is that it is difficult to pick out a group that has strong reasons to support Madrid. I'm certainly not going to argue about the USOC making problems for Chicago -- they have.

The major issue for direct problems in regards to Munich is Sochi really. Back to back Winter Games on the same continent just unlike the Summer have occurred in the age of huge Tv rights packages but the trend tends to be rotation . you had Innsbruck 1964 followed by Grenoble 1968 at the very beginning of the influence of Tv coverage and the rights packages

and Albertville 1992 followed by Lillehammer 1994. 1992 and 1994 you had no Asian cities applying and Anchorage, Alaska as the only North American Candidate City . North America had staged or was to stage three of the four Winter Games in the 12 years prior and including the year Lillehammer was chosen for 1994. North America fatigue was probably as much of Anchorage's Downfall for those back to back bids as their extreme northern location.

Jim jones

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Back to back SOG/WOG on the same continent is not an issue. It's when you start thinking about London 2012, Sochi 2014, Madrid 2016?, Munich 2018? that it starts looking lopsided. Munich 2018 alone would have no bearing on Madrid. But for somebody who is excited about Munich 2018, they have to consider London and Sochi and say, "Whoa, 4 European Games in a row aren't going to happen." Don't get me wrong -- I'm not saying Munich 2018 is a major issue for Madrid. I'm just saying it's one more log on the pile.

In terms of how anybody will or won't vote, all I'm saying is that it is difficult to pick out a group that has strong reasons to support Madrid. I'm certainly not going to argue about the USOC making problems for Chicago -- they have.

Madrid is not happening for 2016 as you have two cities in much better time zones for the biggest private contributor of funding to the IOC American Television . This is why the talks for 2014 and 2016 in regards to Tv rights for America are being delayed to not have a repeat of the 2005 Singapore session where New York city was not awarded. It is a simple message to the rest of the membership of who butters over 50 percent of the bread in Lausanne. Mainly NBC Universal. Either Rio or Chicago will suit the IOC desire to have a very good product to have Fox , CBS , NBC and ABC all bid beyond a billion dollars per games for the US rights . If Madrid 2016 became a reality and the IOC basically shoots down the effort to get more out of America. London 2012 like Athens 2004 and Torino 2006 will most likely be a ratings bomb simply because of the time zone problem. No live events in prime time for the eastern sea board of the US. Rio 2016 can certainly provide event times that can put them live in Prime Time in America as Chicago of course can. Currently Rio is on the same time as my part of Canada or one hour ahead of NYC. Brazil doesn't use daylight savings time and could easily make a gesture in their bid to make Time change falling one hour back for the Brazilan Winter to make Rio's time the same as New York's. They could call it 2016 Olympics Savings time LOL.

Munich 2018 can safely assume that Madrid 2016 will indeed not become a hosting reality. Sochi 2014 however is a reality and unless Asia or North America does not present a bid it will probably end up any place but Europe. Considering you have a Candidate in South Korea and maybe Harbin China steps forward the odds are the games coming back to Asia 20 years after Nagano. Munich 2018 would be a mere 46 years after they hosted the 1972 summer games Munich 2018 is really not looking to the history of cities hosting the games. This would almost be as bad as Montreal launching a bid for the winter games of 2022.

A Harbin 2018 ten years after Beijing 2008 has a historical precedent . Tokyo 1964 followed 8 years later by Sapporo 1972.

jim jones

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