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mattperiolat

Geopolitics And The 2018 Bid

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It's probably a bit premature to begin speculating on this, but I'm interested in opinions on how current attitudes in Southeast Asia might affect the possibility of the Games going to either PC or, for the sake of argument, Harbin. More specifically, the current tension between North and South Korea.

True, the Games don't open for many years hence, but they are going to be awarded in the next three and given how close PC is to the border, combined with other issues PC seems to be having lately might not make it very appealing to the IOC. Same situation with Harbin. I'm sure the city is beautiful, given the dozens of pictures we've been getting lately, but combine the relationship China has with Korea, the possibility of having a war so close to the Games to say nothing of China not exactly being forthright with the IOC around Beijing and I'm thinking all the Southeast Asian sites have a potential problem.

Now, this could, and probably will, blow over by the time we get to the vote, but it is a real problem right now and I'm just interested in what people are thinking right now.

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My issue is more around Beijing than the Korea situation. I simply don't see Harbin getting a games so soon after Beijing. the issue with Pyongchang is also one of apathy. Is there really such a strong love of winter sports in Korea outside of short track?

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Well, there's the Beijing factor too, to say nothing of what happens to PC's bid if Tokyo gets 2016. But the point of political instability in the area and the impact on the bidding process is what I was questioning more than the rotation system.

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It's probably a bit premature to begin speculating on this, but I'm interested in opinions on how current attitudes in Southeast Asia might affect the possibility of the Games going to either PC or, for the sake of argument, Harbin. More specifically, the current tension between North and South Korea.

True, the Games don't open for many years hence, but they are going to be awarded in the next three and given how close PC is to the border, combined with other issues PC seems to be having lately might not make it very appealing to the IOC. Same situation with Harbin. I'm sure the city is beautiful, given the dozens of pictures we've been getting lately, but combine the relationship China has with Korea, the possibility of having a war so close to the Games to say nothing of China not exactly being forthright with the IOC around Beijing and I'm thinking all the Southeast Asian sites have a potential problem.

Now, this could, and probably will, blow over by the time we get to the vote, but it is a real problem right now and I'm just interested in what people are thinking right now.

I agree compleatly.

Obviously, the future is unprodictable especially in the Koreas as of late, but yeah i think you are right. And if Japan gets 2016, East asia will have to wait a bit till it gets another shot at it...

As for Harbin, im not eniterly sure weather the korean situation (or to a far lesser extent Janpan 2016), will effect its chances to host thaaaaat much. The only issue preventing it is that Beijing was months ago, and it will take years untill the IOC will feel comftarble giving the games to China agian (but it will some day).

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Geopolitics is the big question for 2018 for me at this stage.

After Sochi, I thought at first that it basically ruled Europe out of the 2018 frame. Now I'm not so sure.

Harbin, I think, is yes a bit too soon after Beijing. But that's not insurmountable when it comes to SOG against WOG bids. But moreso I think China still needs to have a bit more build up of its winter facilities and hostings a bit. I'm sure it'll be a strong contender for a WOG in he future, maybe the 2020s, but not quite yet.

PyeongChang, on the other hand, seems in many people's minds to have peaked for the 2014 vote, and having been pipped for that, doesn't seem to have the "freshness" it once had, and the question of winter sports support and passion in Korea seems to be coming out now.

As to the current political events of north east Asia, well, unless full scale war in Korea breaks out before the decision, in 2011 I assume, I don't see it as a huge factor so far.

The US, really the ony other non-European potential, seems to be dithering. Though I suppose it depends what happens in Copenhagen in October.

Against that, I do think Europe has put up some strong contenders. France can never be ruled out, but Munich, I reckon, has a strong emotional and solidly capable technical bid from a winter sports power that's only hosted once before.

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I have to echo some of the above sentiments. I think it is way to early to call, and I too thought a European victory for 2018 was very difficult, but it does not seem so improbable now.

I don't think Tokyo 2016 will be affected much either, unless there is a rocket attack on their country between now and October which unlikely even though NK is ruled by crazies.

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All good points - and agree with all of them. It would be great to have another Asian Nation host the Winter Olympics, but I don't see that happening in 2018. Europe to me is the most likely candidate, seeing that there are so many more options to choose from - and with winter sports, Europe truly does dominate.

Like Sochi was (being Russia's 1st winter games), my preference would be to have a 'new' nation host, even better if it hasn't hosted either summer or winter. Korea & China both fit that bill - but like others have said, too soon since Beijing for Harbin and South Korea really doesn't appeal to me, never did.

For some reason I would love to see Sofia, Bulgaria get the games. But the realist in me is putting money on Munich. The irony isn't lost on me that I am most likely supporting the only CITY to have already hosted ;)

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Zaragoza (Spain) pretended to bid for the 2018 WOG, although from what i know the decission hasn't been taken yet.

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I hope Sofia, Bulgaria should host too. (to be honest i would prefer a Lillahamer sityle games in the Rhodope Mountains in Bulgaria... but that will never happen b/c there will never be enough hotels etc. ) :lol:

However, more on the topic: I would like to see the Winter games in Eastern Europe, just so we can see/experience the culture of different places...

I would like to see Germany host (it needs to, and also will be a spectacular host), however I have a problem with a former summer host, hosting a winter games. Though, i know if Munich is out, that leaves Germany with very littel options... :(

BTW, do you guys think the IOC will feel fine giving the hosting duties of the Winter Games to a former Summer Games Host (i.e. Munich)? Do you think they would not mind crossing that border/glass ceiling? I know there is not technical reason to "mind it", however i cant help that if that is to happen the balance of the universe will shift :) LOL ... :lol:

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I hope Sofia, Bulgaria should host too. (to be honest i would prefer a Lillahamer sityle games in the Rhodope Mountains in Bulgaria... but that will never happen b/c there will never be enough hotels etc. ) :lol:

However, more on the topic: I would like to see the Winter games in Eastern Europe, just so we can see/experience the culture of different places...

I would like to see Germany host (it needs to, and also will be a spectacular host), however I have a problem with a former summer host, hosting a winter games. Though, i know if Munich is out, that leaves Germany with very littel options... :(

BTW, do you guys think the IOC will feel fine giving the hosting duties of the Winter Games to a former Summer Games Host (i.e. Munich)? Do you think they would not mind crossing that border/glass ceiling? I know there is not technical reason to "mind it", however i cant help that if that is to happen the balance of the universe will shift :) LOL ... :lol:

It's interesting that you see that as a negative. To me, Munich's previous summer hosting is probably its biggest advantage.

Firstly, symbolically, it would, to my mind, be a popular gesture. It's a chance to bring the flame and excitement back to one of the games' most memorable stadiums, Munich's Olympia Park.

Then there's the legacy aspect - unfortunately Munich 1972 will forever be thought of and remembered as a "tarnished" games, and another hosting would finally give the opportunity for Germany, and the IOC, to try to remedy that negative reputation to some degree.

Then there's the growth of the Winter Games themselves. As you yourself mentioned, the days of more intimate, "Lillehammer"-type games seems to have passed. The WOGs seem to have moved into an era of more regional widespread games being anchored by large cities _ Salt Lake City, Milano, Vancouver etc. Which Munich fits the bill well.

I feel sure that at some stage, a former Summer Host will take on a winter hosting. Maybe it'll be Munich, maybe Helsinki, maybe it could go the other way around and Oslo could host an SOG. I really don't see it as a hindrance.

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This topic has me thinking - what cities in Europe do you think have a legitimate shot of landing the Winter Olympics in the near future (ie within the next 4 - 5 games)???? I'm not really familiar of the options out there (that haven't hosted a winter games yet?) so would love to hear your thoughts - pro's and con's.

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sir roltel> completely agree with your assessment of Munich. It's why I felt a 'hunch' that Munich would be successful bid, but couldn't quite put in to words. Munich could do like Vancouver & Sochi both did - no bridesmaid story with either of those!

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This topic has me thinking - what cities in Europe do you think have a legitimate shot of landing the Winter Olympics in the near future (ie within the next 4 - 5 games)???? I'm not really familiar of the options out there (that haven't hosted a winter games yet?) so would love to hear your thoughts - pro's and con's.

In the near future I can see hosting:

Munich

Grenoble/Annecy

Almaty (if can be considered as an Eastern Europe country)

Zaragoza

Salzburg/Innsbruck

Sofia

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In the near future I can see hosting:

Munich

Grenoble/Annecy

Almaty (if can be considered as an Eastern Europe country)

Zaragoza

Salzburg/Innsbruck

Sofia

I never heard much about it, but what is the feasability for ALMATY to win, obviously it would be awhile since Sochi has 2014, but then again Vancouver is coming only 1 Olympics(turin) after neighbor country's SALT LAKE CITY.

From what I know Kazakhstan has a lot of oil/ gas money. But is it still too poor and rural in the eyes of the IOC to win?

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I never heard much about it, but what is the feasability for ALMATY to win, obviously it would be awhile since Sochi has 2014, but then again Vancouver is coming only 1 Olympics(turin) after neighbor country's SALT LAKE CITY.

From what I know Kazakhstan has a lot of oil/ gas money. But is it still too poor and rural in the eyes of the IOC to win?

Well, it applied for 2014, and while it didn't make it through to the Candidate City short list stage, it was very close to the cut-off benchmark.

Realistically, though, Sochi's win probably put its chances back now for a few cycles.

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Well, it applied for 2014, and while it didn't make it through to the Candidate City short list stage, it was very close to the cut-off benchmark.

Realistically, though, Sochi's win probably put its chances back now for a few cycles.

Almaty will organize in 2011 the Asian Winter Games... so they will earn some legacy and experience... that will boost a bid for 2022 !

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I know some of our members in GB now deeply believe Europe bids still have great chances to win the 2018 bid. Howerer, what about the next 2020 summer bid ? I guess Madrid and Paris are interested in it. So do you really believe 2014/2018/2022 are all will be held in Europe ?

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I know some of our members in GB now deeply believe Europe bids still have great chances to win the 2018 bid. Howerer, what about the next 2020 summer bid ? I guess Madrid and Paris are interested in it. So do you really believe 2014/2018/2022 are all will be held in Europe ?

If Harbin bids, it will be the favorite:

1 Harbin

2 Annecy

3 Munich

4 PC

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I don't think you can ever completely rule out Europe for any Winter bid cycle. They simply have the largest number of potential candidates, many different mountain ranges with many developed mountain resorts, a deep winter tradition and represent many of the countries and athletes that participate in the Winter Games. And Europe has hosted back to back Winter Games several times, most recent being 1992 and 1994. The only other countries outside of Europe that the IOC has awarded the Winter Games to are the USA, Japan, and Canada. There is just a smaller pool to pick from. Of all the countries awarded the Winter Games, all but 3 have hosted twice (Germany, Yugoslavia/Bosnia, and Russia), and all but four (Switzerland, Norway, Austria, and Yugoslavia/Bosnia) have been awarded both Summer and Winter Games.

With Olympic skiers shushing down the slopes of the Alps, the mountains of Norway, and soon the Caucasus, there are still the Carpathians, the Pyrenees, the Tatras, and a few others in Europe to shush down.

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